Super Sunday Links 15 Jan 2012
by Timothy De Block on Jan 15, 2012 5:00 AM CST
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PrintWhile Jeff Luhnow was throwing 97 MPH, I was putting together these hot links for your viewing pleasure.
Statistics
What Starting Pitcher Metrics Correlate Year-to-Year? - Beyond the Box Score
By Bill Petti. Some pitching metrics are more descriptive than predictive. Here's a quick reference for which metrics correlate year-to-year for starting pitchers.
Aging Strikeouts: You’ll Never Be This Good Again | FanGraphs Baseball
By Eno Sarris
Hitters Age Like Wine — Power Like Cheese? | FanGraphs Baseball
By Eno Sarris
Debate Is A Good Thing
Hall debate spawns a new stats superhero, Saberboy
Fantastic!
Baseball Prospectus | BP Unfiltered: Watching Jack Play
By Colin Wyers
2012 Hall of Fame Vote: BBWAA Should End Secret Ballots - Beyond the Box Score
By Lewie Pollis | Don't think the BBWAA's secret ballots matter? Writers who revealed their picks voted quite differently than voters who remained anonymous.
The Hall of Fame and the Myth of Exclusivity - Beyond the Box Score
There's this myth that the Hall of Fame is super exclusive and should be reserved for only the elite players in history. Only thing is, it's not. And it hasn't been in a long, long time.
Coming And Going
Dennis Liborio: loyal employee, clubhouse staple, one of a kind. " Alyson's Footnotes
By Alyson Footer
The Journey of Fernando Martinez - Minor League Ball
By John Sickels
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Colin Wyers’ rebuttal to Heyman’s argument that people who saw Jack Morris pitch are bettter than “stat gurus” is well done. In fact, it’s brilliant. If people who saw Morris pitch are the ones who know his greatness, why does he rank so low on the share of Cy Young votes in the 80’s? Hey, even Mike Scott ranks higher.
One of the non-Astros’ players I like is R.A. Dickey. This NY Times link about his climb of Mt. Kilamanjaro is interesting. He raised money, through the climb, for a Bombay charity that rescues abused and exploited teens in India. He transmitted real time dispatches to the media with a satellite phone. As background, the Mets tried to stop him from making this climb, intimating that it might violate his contract. Some Mets’ fans felt like the organization was tone deaf, and should have endorsed the effort of one of their players to raise money for a humanitarian charity. The climb is difficult, but generally not life threatening.
When I say “generally not life threatening,” I meant to distinguish this type of hiking from the skill required for climbing Mt. Everest or the Himalayas. Less than 30% of climbers fail to reach the summit of Mt. Kilamanjaro and turn back, due to exhaustion, cold, and altitude sickness. It is possible to die of acute mountain sickness if climbers attempt to ascend too fast or are not adequately equipped.
To read correctly, eliminate “Less than” to “More than” in that sentence. The success rate is almost 30%.
That makes more sense…lol
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 15, 2012 11:20 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
97 MPH huh?
Does that mean he convinced Brett Myers to be a “fireballer” again?
Kidding
by Its Gonna Happen on Jan 15, 2012 11:19 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Jeff Luhnow's tweet
jluhnow said:
Nothing like a 97 mph fastball at 10 am.
Earlier in the day he said:
Heading to see two very good high school pitchers this morning… who both play for the same school. I expect 50 plus scouts there.
I deduce that he went and saw Lucas Giolito and Max Fried, who are both playing for Harvard-Westlake this year. Last season, Giolito was getting his FB into the upper-90’s, so the 97-mph comment is likely about him. Since both Giolito and Fried are known to be likely first-rounders (and Giolito a possible 1st pick overall) that would explain why Luhnow expected 50+ scouts to be there, and why he didn’t bother keeping his plans under his hat.
I was thinking the same thing.
There have been rumblings that Giolito could be the first high school righty taken first overall. I would prefer Appel as of right now, but Giolito has a pretty huge ceiling it seems.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 16, 2012 8:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I've heard some say
That Giolito could be better than either Jameson Taillon or Dylan Bundy.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It will be interesting to see which way the Astros go. The clear cut number one may become clear in the next couple of months or so.
by conroestro on Jan 16, 2012 10:35 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I’ve read a few scouting reports that share that opinion. It would be quite a risk to draft a high school pitcher so high, but this team has the luxury of affording him plenty of time to develop. I can’t wait for the draft…
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 16, 2012 11:12 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I'd like the Giolito pick
He’s a ridiculously strong high school prospect. Appel would be safer, but Giolito’s upside is through the roof.
Check out The Dream Shake.
by Patrick Harrel on Jan 16, 2012 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
I hate to say this because it goes against a lot of what I think the ‘stros philosophy should be, but I don’t think they should ignore floor with the #1 overall pick. With what I know of both prospects, I’d prefer them to take Appel. Both players have ace upside, with Giolito having a HOF ceiling, whereas Appel has a much higher floor as a middle rotation starter. Giolito, as a HS flamethrower, could end up as a total bust.
by Snake Diggity on Jan 16, 2012 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
I don’t know that Appel’s floor is actually that high. He hasn’t performed all that well in college. His strikeout rate is very low for a guy with his stuff.
We will have to see how he does this upcoming season though.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I saw that over the weekend. I noticed that for as much as he has been hyped his stats have not been all that impressive.
I figured that maybe he was a “scouting reports are good” kind of guy just it hasn’t translated to actual performance yet. Sort of like our very own Jarred Cosart.
by conroestro on Jan 16, 2012 1:46 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Both players could end up as total busts. What the Astros should be doing is to ask themselves which player has the best chance at being a big success in the future. Looking at projections, Appel would bring success to the MLB club faster, while Giolito would bring success later. Does Giolito project to be much better than Appel to merit waiting for him to develop?
Remember, the Astros need starters who project to be Aces.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Video of Giolito, if you’re interested.
Some scouting reports are predicting Giolito and Appel as the 1 and 2 picks in the draft, with the order determined by how they perform in the upcoming months. These are tough decisions. If Appel turns out to be Paul Maholm and Giolito turns out to be Josh Beckett, that can almost ruin a team executive’s career.
There is also a potential signing risk for Giolito, since he is committed to UCLA. So, you would have to be dead certain that he would sign within slot——though the Astros wll have something like $7 million to work with, if I recall correctly, which presumably is tough for a young high schooler to turn down.
If he’s taken first overall, he’s gotta realize it’s impossible to go higher and extremely unlikely to get anything more. I find it highly unlikely that a number 1 overall pick doesn’t sign with the new CBA
Agreed.
I think if Giolito is taken first overall, he’ll definitely sign for those reasons.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 16, 2012 3:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
That makes sense. No reason to forego being the #1 pick only to go to college and at best become the #1 pick again. It would make sense to take the money the first time and then go to college later if you choose.
by conroestro on Jan 16, 2012 3:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Interesting article on Giolito.
Churchill seems a bit lower on him than other guys I’ve read. But he does provide insight on how he feels Giolito compares to high school pitchers from recent drafts. Keep in mind that a lot can change by draft day, of course.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Jan 16, 2012 3:15 PM CST via mobile reply actions
He was oddly down on him. Sure he wasn’t as polished as some of those guy with the secondary offering but his changeup is better and has a much better delivery that isn’t all out effort. I would probably agree with the ranking from the 2011 draft, or might even have him third. But, I probably have issues with the others.
After the Rockies trade today it seems like they have a thousand starters for their five man rotation. They also apparently made an offer to a veteran free agent starter as well.
That got me thinking about Wandy and the Rockies again. If the Astros chose to eat some of his contract then it would seem like Wandy would be a good fit for them. They apparently have a need at second base, but I doubt they would be interested in Matt Downs, so the Astros may not ne a good trading partner because they can’t fit that need.
Trading with the Rockies would make sense for the Stros though since the Rockies have an abundance of young pitching, among other prospects as well.
by conroestro on Jan 16, 2012 3:18 PM CST via mobile reply actions
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Current Series
4 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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| Mon 05/28 | 7:10 PM CDT | |
| Wed 05/30 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
| Thu 05/31 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
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St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
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Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
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Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
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Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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