Mariners Trade Good for Stros
by Astro#1fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:57 PM CST
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The Mariners traded Michael Pineda to the Yankees for Jesus Montero. Seeing as how we will be in the AL west after next year I am paying close attention to deals happening there now more closely than I am all the deals the Cubs are making. I would much rather the Mariners have a good hitting catcher over an ace pitcher. 3 ace pithcers will put any team into the playoffs(2005 Astros are proof). The Mariners were going to have 2, but they traded 1 away. Thus I think this is a great trade for the Astros.
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Traded a good young pitcher but.....
You realize they have Hultzen, Walker, and Paxton waiting in the wings to replace him? Hultzen and Walker have #1 starter potential as well, so yeah they might have given up one really good pitcher, but they now have a huge boost in offense for the future, and still a rotation that could feature three #1 starters when you include King Felix.
Either way I would rather have a great pitcher than batter. I would you rather have poetentially 5 number ones. than 4 and a hitter. Think about have an ace for all 5 spots. But let’s be realistic, what are the odds that all 4 of these young pitchers end up being great. Pineda had a pretty good rookie season, he will probably be better than the 2 of the other 3 pitchers. I think Hultzen is gonna be solid. They could have had Hultzen, Felix, and Pineda.
I’m not sure that the 2005 Astros WS formula works in the AL. Pitching is very important, but I think you need at least an average, or at least adequate, offense to go with it in the AL. Given the Mariners’ depth of pitching prospects and lack of big league hitting, this is a good trade fro them, IMO. They picked up a young No. 3 hitter for their lineup. Montero ceiling is high, perhaps a future Mike Piazza. I’m not saying that is what he will become, but a team like the Mariners has to take risks on high ceiling players.
I’m not sure the 2005 Astros WS formula works in the NL either, considering they finished 11th in the NL in Runs Scored, then got swept in the World Series.
The Great Pitching/Bad Offense combo seems to work on more occasions in the NL than the AL (or so it seems like). The Giants’ World Series team of two years ago is an example. The Padres won several NL West titles wth that combination. Off-hand, I have difficulty thinking of similar AL Champions. My initial thought was that perhaps the White Sox team which faced the 2005 Astros is an example. But that White Sox team was league average in offense.
The Rays scored the 4th most runs in the AL in 2011. The Rays had the 8th best OPS in the AL, which put them in the average range for OPS.
Those numbers are slightly skewed. The orioles gave up the most runs in baseball last year, Boston the 6th most in the AL.(Yankees were 12th). That is why they scored more runs than their OPS would argue they should have scored.
As for the Orioles and Red Sox, that’s kind of a chicken and egg question. The fact that they had to play some really good offensive teams (like the Jays and Yankees could be a factor in their runs scored. The Rays are an unusual offensive team, statistically. The Rays are 4th in wRC+, 4th in ISO (lots of extra bases) and 1st in Stolen Bases.
Ok in the league(MLB) Orioles gave up the most runs, Jays 6th, Red sox were 10th, and Yankees were21st. The Rays were 25th, and they had to play the Yankees, Redsox, and Jays.
Tampa was 8th in the AL in runs and and 13th in the AL in AVG. Couple that with your ISO stat. That means they have lots of power and speed but are not good at making contact. Their SLG, AVG, and OPS were all below average in the AL. Their OBP was exactly average. We would have to conclude that they were a below average hitting team and well above average pitching. The redsox were the exact opposite and they did not make the playoffs.
That furthers my argument that the Mariner’s trade was good for the stros.
Sample size
One team does not a trend make. I did some research on this subject back in 2009, that I wish I could find. What I discovered was that teams who are extremely heavy in either pitching or batting and extremely deficient in the other category never win the World Series and rarely get there (the 2005 Astros being the only notable recent exception. The 2010 Giants were within 4 runs scored of league average that year, despite their reputation). Similarly, the 2011 Rays were within 15 runs scored of league average, which doesn’t put them in the “bad offense” category.
The whole myth that you can build a team based on a stellar pitching staff and minimal hitting is just a myth, as it is not a formula that has worked since the deadball era, that I can tell. What I found in my research was that with strong pitching and mediocre hitting, you can win. With strong hitting and mediocre pitching, you can win. Defense affected playoff success very little, at least by traditional measurements.
Your argument about the numbers being skewed doesn’t make much sense to me. So the AL East as a whole gave up more runs than other divisions…does it matter? The AL has to play the NL in the World Series, so you can throw RS and RA out the window at that point. The entire AL is stronger than the NL, and so what may be a “below average” Rays offensive team may actually be an above average NL team. You want to adjust the Rays offensive numbers because they had weak pitching competition? How about adjusting their offsensive numbers upward because they play in that horrible cavern of a pitchers’ park at the Trop?
Obviously, I’m not taking sides here, as I’ve argued both yours and clack’s points, but I do feel like you’re very much oversimplifying things by claiming the Rays took advantage of weak competition.
I am not making the argument that a stellar pitching staff makse a world series winning team. I am making the argument for playoff poetential. It would not be too difficult to build an average offense, if they have that stellar pitching staff with an average offense they will make the playoffs, and that is one more playoff spot we can not fill.
I am basing good or bad for the team based off of playoff chances.
I think it's an okay deal for the M's
Not great… they have a ton of young pitching and needed offense, though, and Montero is going to mash. I don’t think this has a has a huge impact on the amount of games they’ll win over the next decade one way or another though.
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I hear Montero is atrocious behind the dish
Mariners have a good hitting catcher
He’ll be DHing for his time in Seattle.
The Mariners will make an effort to see if he can stick behind the plate. The team already has a 1st baseman and DH. Montero doesn’t have a good throwing arm, but neither did Piazza. If he hits well enough, he may be able to stay behind the plate.
To be fair, Mike Carp was never considered a top 100 prospect by most analysts and Justin Smoak has been disappointing so far. I agree that the M’s will likely start Montero out at catcher, but I would not be remotely surprised to see him transition to first base or DH before too long.
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Who's their DH?
M’s are terrible offensively, coming in dead last in 2011 in just about every offensive category. They had a .640 OPS, Astros by comparison had a .684…..
The guy isn’t really a catcher. He logged over 100 games behind the plate once so far in a season as a pro.
by Reverend Koosh on Jan 14, 2012 9:12 AM CST up reply actions
I got that from M’s fans at BBTF:..I was referring to Carp and Smoak at DH and 1b. The Mariners would be crazy to make this trade if they didn’t think Montero has a decent chance of being a catcher.. They definitely will try to play him there. And to be fair, other than his arm, Montero has all the tools to be a catcher in terms of agility, but he hasn’t gotten enough experience at the position. If he shares DH time and catcher time, I wouldn’t expect him to catch much more than 100 games in a season. 110-120 games is fairly typical for an AL catcher.
I hadn’t seen anybody call Montero agile in the least. From what I’ve read about the guy over the past couple years is he’s terrible behind the plate and can’t play the OF, which makes him a 1B or DH. I’d think Smoak has at least one more year before they give up on him, so that leaves DH.
Also, most players don’t learn positions on the fly in the majors, especially C.
by Reverend Koosh on Jan 14, 2012 12:45 PM CST up reply actions
How does this help the Astros?
Pineda would only pitch in every five games. So instead of facing a guy just a handful of times in a season, they now have to face one of the highest regarded hitting prospects in probably every game they face…..
if we play the Mariners 18 times each year and Montero averages 4 PA/game against us we will face him 72 times. If Pineda was with the M’s and he started against us only 3 times we would face him 73.65 times. I figured that by taking his average start(171IP/28GS)GS against us(assumed a low 3) 4.099(whis is 3+ whip(1.099)because that is how many batters he faces per inning). It comes out to 73.65 versus Montero’s 72. I will take an ace pitcher over a solid batter any day.
Lots of unknowns, of course
Pineda is probably higher risk, higher reward. If he pans out, I’ll be glad that we won’t have to deal with him quite so often. The other prospect the Mariners traded has some good upside too, according to KLaw.
by pacbellpilgrim on Jan 14, 2012 11:50 AM CST reply actions
I’ve seen some pretty sparkling reports on Campos. Hector Noesi, the other player the M’s received, could probably step into the rotation this year.
by MadMartygan on Jan 14, 2012 12:27 PM CST up reply actions
Noesi was one of the names mentioned in the Lance Berkman trade
We wound up getting Melancon instead.. Of course we then turned him into Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland, so I’ll take it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I’ll take that deal. I think Noesi is viewed as a solid back of the rotation guy, and I could see Weiland having that potential.
by MadMartygan on Jan 14, 2012 12:57 PM CST up reply actions
I think it was a decent sell high, but not a great deal. I will say that out of all the other deals that saw young pitchers traded, Montero is the player with the most upside. His hit and power tool are supposed to be elite.
I like Pineda. He’s very young and his K/BB rates are awesome. As of right now, he’s a two pitch pitcher, and although those are two really good pitches it’s possible that hitters could figure him out. You add into that the injury risk and I like it for Seattle. All things being equal I’ll take elite hitter over elite pitcher.
The fact that Pineda pitched well in the majors moves him partly out of “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” category, but not altogether. There are some risk factors with Pineda: bad lefty-righty splits (probably because he is a two pitch pitcher); BABIP last year probably is unsustainable; terrible second half of season (perhaps pitched too many innings); performance probably is exagerrated by Safeco Field. I think there is some inherent premature injury risk for any starting pitcher at 22 years of age in the majors. This is not an automatic gimme trade for the Yankees. That said, I don’t think it’s a bad trade for either team. For the Yankees, he is probably the best pre-arb pitcher available, and the K rate and BB rate are attractive for a pitcher that age. Montero has more value to the Mariners than he does to the Yankees, and vice versa for Pineda.
Speaking of the babip.
David Cameron @d_a_cameron Reply Retweet Favorite · Close
Pineda, first half: 3.14 K/BB. Pineda, second half: 3.16 K/BB. BABIP regression is being translated into him wearing down.
I think this makes Seattle a bit tougher. People have thrown around Piazza and Miggy Cabrera for Montero, of course that best case, but anything like that and he’s valuable as even just a DH. Pineda is good but has already had some injury troubles, and pitchers are so volatile. I guess we just have to see which player can come closest to maximizing their potential.
I see it as a good trade for both teams. Seattle desperately needs bats, and New York desperately needed to fill out their rotation.
by MadMartygan on Jan 14, 2012 12:09 PM CST up reply actions
I've also seen Montero compared to Carlos Lee
Doesn’t sound so bad, but let’s not forget Lee was a pretty scary hitter in his prime.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
How much longer do the M’s have King Felix for.
I read where the Yanks would have traded the world for him.
by conroestro on Jan 14, 2012 12:54 PM CST via mobile reply actions
To clear that up a little, he’s under contract through 2014, and a free agent in 2015 when he signs with the Astros.
by MadMartygan on Jan 14, 2012 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs
Nice.
I think I might have accepted a trade of ManBan, Betances, Montero, plus more for Felix.
by conroestro on Jan 14, 2012 1:01 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Their stock has fallen this year
Betances and Cosart actually have some similarities.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think both of them have a fair chance to be starters
But it’s quite possible they could wind up as back end relievers. I don’t want to assume anything at this point.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I agree with that. There’s no telling with pitching prospects.
by MadMartygan on Jan 15, 2012 11:28 AM CST up reply actions
He’s still young enough that it’s still a possibility.
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by Timothy De Block on Jan 17, 2012 9:53 AM CST up reply actions
you wonder what the M's are going to do with King Felix
RE: 2005 Astros
3 ace pithcers will put any team into the playoffs(2005 Astros are proof).
I think that if you look up season Runs Scored and Runs Allowed by World Series participants for the last 50 years, you’ll find that the 2005 Astros are the only team that had such a wide disparity of pitching and hitting. As I said above, I looked this up once (lost the research and have no intention of repeating it), and I could not find another team that was that deficient in either hitting or pitching that made it to the World Series, much less won it.
Just because it happened once does not make it a good formula for success. I like the trade for the Yankees, haven’t decided about the Mariners, and I think it affects the Astros very little. Given 5 years until the Astros are competitive again, Fernandez will likely be gone, Montero will be approaching free agency, and we have no idea who will be on the Astros.
By the way, who is the “second ace” you referenced for the Mariners? I count Felix Hernandez, and that’s it. Pineda might be a nice number two (if he learns a third pitch), but he isn’t an ace. Comparing Pineda at this point to Oswalt, Clemens, or Petitte in their primes isn’t very accurate.
Pineda has that potential
And Tajuan Walker, Hultzen, or Paxton all have top of the rotation stuff. Walker is the most likely to reach #1 status, but they have a lot of extremely talented arms.
Check out The Dream Shake.
by Patrick Harrel on Jan 16, 2012 11:51 PM CST up reply actions
Last year was his first major league experince and he made the all star team, in my mind that means he is a great young pitcher.
I didn’t say he wasn’t a great young pitcher. I said comparing him to Oswalt, Clemens, and Petitte at this point in his career isn’t accurate. Most scouts/analysis believe that Pineda is going to struggle until he learns a major league changeup and that his ultimate ceiling is as a late reliever otherwise. He had a great year in 2011 as a 22 year old. Let’s see how he does in the Bronx, with a full year of video for hitting coaches to dissect, before we start anointing him with anything.
Rick Porcello had a great Rookie season at age 20, and since then he’s been crushed by major league pitching. All I’m saying is, “hold your horses.” I really don’t think this trade affects the Astros at all.
alright. I am not making the case that this trade makes or breaks the Astros 4 or 5 years from now. I just feel that 4 or 5 years from now I would rather the M’s have Montero than Pineda. They have a wealth of talent at the pitching spot, and I think that we can agree that if that were to pan out we would be in trouble. But they traded some of their wealth away. And they got a great young hitting catcher. But this is not Basketball, one explosive player will not make them contenders. I do not feel that at this time they have the tools around Montero to make him as effective as he should be. That is why I like the trade as a divisional opponent.
I guess I agree with that, in general.
But for different reasons. I’m not as big a believer in Montero as I am in Pineda. I think Montero MIGHT be fantastic, but his value is more in his “hit” tool rather than his power. He has plenty of natural power, but it will be suppressed somewhat at Safeco Field, and there is no evidence to say that he will adjust to major league pitching, when the time comes. More risk, in otherwords. Montero had a pretty uninspiring season last year (for him), and although people claim he was “bored” at AAA, I’m less a believer than I was a year ago.
Additionally, if the M’s play Montero at catcher, that will further diminish his value.
Not
the exact same reasoning, but I agree. This was a win for the Yankees, and thus the Astros. I also like Campos too, so that’s a factor.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 17, 2012 5:25 PM CST reply actions
Hey McCutchenIsTheTruth.
I see on your tagline that you have Buried Treasure – #10 Prospect Nick Kingham. He is my cousin, they used to live in Houston but moved to Las Vegas about 15 years ago. Hopefully he rocks it this year!
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