Astros' hitters hacking their way to the bottom?
by clack on Sep 9, 2011 7:01 AM CDT
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Any signs of a philosophy change?
I wonder if this tendency that you point out and rightly connect to player acquisition is being noticed and addressed anywhere in the organization.
In recent trades, Schafer and Singleton show some patience, with not as much for Santana. I doubt much about a philosophy change can be read into those yet though.
It’s possible that first round picks Miers and Castro represented more attention to a predisposition toward patience. In terms of trades and free agent signings, the Astros do not seem to go for patient, high walk rate hitters. I can’t think of many examples where the Astros selected veterans with those skills.
by clack on Sep 9, 2011 8:51 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think this hacker mentality is what caused me to overvalued Shuck so much in a fan post I wrote earlier. His ability to draw a walk or wait for his pitch seems so refreshing in contrast to everyone else on the team, except maybe Bogey, or maybe even Lee. Shuck’s problem, though, is that he is limited in what he can do when he does get a hittable pitch. Berkman, in his prime, really had, what I would consider, an almost perfect approach at the plate. I wish the Astros could draft and develop another guy with a Berkman like approach for the middle of the Astros order.
by Brad E on Sep 9, 2011 9:26 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You mentioned Carlos Lee, and he has always been a below average BB% hitter over his career. However, I recall an interview with Brad Mills last month in which he said he had a sit-down discussion with Carlos Lee about his batting approach. Mills said he told Lee that he was getting opportunities to take ball four and he should go ahead and take the walks if they are available. I notice that Lee has a 14.9% walk rate in August (compared to his career average of 7.2%). Lee’s walk rate for the year is 8.4%, which would be his highest walk rate since 2002. Bill James developed the concept of “old player skills,” which observed that aging players’ frequently experience a batting average reduction accompanied by higher walk rates and power. So maybe this is a natural evolution for Lee.
by clack on Sep 9, 2011 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’ve noticed his improvement. If he keeps it up, he could be tradeable next June. The only problem is that I think his full NTC kicks in by then. He’s having fun. It will be interesting to see how his career plays out. (I know, I know. Who cares as long as he is not in HOU after next year)
by Brad E on Sep 9, 2011 12:08 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Two fo three young guns that you mentioned, JD and Altuve, made their rapid ascension
to the ML level by swinging away and being very successful at it. Paredes did struggle in AA so his production at the ML level is somewhat surprising. All three are young and have time to learn patience at the plate. I would expect JD to show more patience next season as he is the oldest and has shown that he is willing to work hard at making changes in his approach before. I expect that we might see a bit more patience from Altuve and Paredes but we most likely not see a leap in patience like will probably will with JD and that they will improve some with each passing season as they mature both physically and mentally.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Not sure you're going deep enough.
I agree with everything, but I’m not sure we’re comparing apples to apples here. When comparing the Astros to the top “discipline” teams, you state:
Generally, good BB rates and BB/K ratios result in good offensive teams.
I agree with this, but you could also say the reverse.
Fake quote:
Generally, good offensive teams result in good BB rates and BB/K ratios.
From the data presented, it’s hard to say whether it’s the chicken or the egg.
Are the Astros a bad offensive team because they are hacktastic? Or, are the Astros hacktastic because they have intrinsically less talent than most other teams?
For myself, I have to lean towards option two. It all starts with the players that they field. Per our previous discussion, other than an edict saying “You WILL take the first pitch of every at bat until we get this under control,” plate disclipline has got to be one of the most difficult things to coach. It’s dependent on the size of a player’s strike zone, his hand-eye coordination, his stride, bat speed, blah blah blah.
I’ve been looking for a free utility online that will let me see where pitches cross the plate (for Altuve, for example), so I can compare the locations of pitches he hits for singles, rather than extra bases. I’m willing to bet everything I pay to read this site that pitchers are throwing nibblers and he’s blooping them for singles because he won’t lay off. Fangraphs shows that his groundball rate has gone up and his line drive rate has decreased almost linearly since he’s joined the league. This indicates that good pitchers are exploiting his biggest strength & weakness (contact %) to give him junk instead of pitches he can crank. That at least would explain the severe power drop-off since he reached the majors.
I think I understand what you’re saying about the chicken and egg issue. Undoubtedly, the hitting talent of a team affects what pitchers throw. But I also think that on-base ability is a skill. For example, the A’s are not a very talented offensive team. But they rank near the top of all of the patience type swing measures. This is because they value patience and on base skills when they draft and sign players more than almost any other team. The Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays also rank high on these measures and we know that their front offices strive to acquire patient hitters who walk a lot. I think an offense can get away with middle of the road on-base skills if it is offset with lot of power, with the Rangers as an example. However, the Astros rank poorly in power (ISO), so they can’t really offset their weak on-base ability.
by clack on Sep 9, 2011 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I love that quote from Ted Williams, clack.
So true, so true. Off the subject, and I guess it’s just a sign of the times, but I saw one of those PSAs the other day (you know, the ones where they have the “star” of the team saying something important), and I didn’t even know who it was. Now, I know that most of my attention has been on the NFL lately…..but still.
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
One of these days....WHEN I have more time, WHEN I get that promotion, WHEN my ship comes in. Listen, TODAY is the day WHEN you start to put your goals into action. TODAY is the day WHEN you stop putting things off and decide that the only way the future IS going to be better is if I make TODAY WHENsday!!
Thank you for posting this!
Good to see the numbers are what my untrained eye was expecting to see. I would also bet our pitches per PA is among the lowest in the league as well.
walks
rookies swing at lots of bad pitches. astros are getting real young. there is time for them to learn patience at the plate. right now they are trying to impress by getting hits. we are going to have a good team. next yr? maybe .500… yr after? maybe be in contention. magnus
league change
i would not mind astros going to al west, if IF beisbol also puts colorado or az in al west and moves a west coast team …. seattle..oakland…to nl west…. that would have two west coast teams…rangers, rockies?? or dbacks?? and astros…in al west… rangers,astros, and 3 pacific rim teams creates too much of a travel and time change problem…magnus
I don't want this team going to the BS AL in any sort of scheme anyone comes up with
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Sep 9, 2011 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
signing pujols
no 10 yr deals…he is human and will start fading at age 36….i would offer him $25m per yr for 4 yrs…….take it or leave it….i would offer berkman $12m a yr for 2 yrs…. it is more fun to watch a young team than an old team with aging stars…..magnus
Why would yoe even consider signing either one when we will have one if not two possible 1B
who will be much cheaper and much younger waiting to take over that position in roughly 2-3 years?
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
astro pitching
myers is a stud pitcher… norris also… wandy is real good…. astros will be ok if they build around this nucleus… and keep working on the young rebuilding team…pitching is different than position players…magnus
The Astros don't have a stud pitcher.
Stats don’t lie.
Brett Wallace: Hips don't lie either.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
Stats might have lied to Wade in this case
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Who's the no-good team that knocked Astros to 2d
in swiging at outside pitches and first strike percentage?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 9, 2011 5:48 PM CDT reply actions
My observation of the Giants
Offense is not their strength.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 9, 2011 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Timely article
And of course, Astros have 0 walks in extra inning game and lose.
