Pitching Leads Astros Past Pirates 4-1
by David Coleman on Sep 6, 2011 10:05 PM CDT
in Houston Astros News
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Do you know the biggest reason the decision not to trade Brett Myers and instead give him contract extension sticks in fans' craw?
We'll get back to that in a minute. Certainly, Myers pitched very well in this game, shutting down the Pirates into the eighth inning. He struck out six and allowed just one run. If you look at Myers' season, it hasn't been nearly as bad as you'd think. Yes, the ERA and FIP is high, but that's due to a very high home run rate. His expected FIP this season isn't much different than last. That doesn't mean Myers is worth a big contract, but he is eating up innings and providing the production of a middle-rotation starter.
The reason Myers should have been flipped when he was at his most valuable last summer was also staring Houston in the face in this game. Their names are Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes. Both players had big games, as Shark moves closer to saving his 20th game and Paredes keeps on hitting.
When the Astros traded Lance Berkman last summer, it was almost as an afterthought. The haul they got back was pretty underwhelming, but has proven to be much more effective so far than the Brett Myers trade. We have no idea how Paredes will hold up long-term, but unlike Brett Myers, his defense will keep him on the field even if his bat cools off. And as far as Melancon goes, I'm not a fan of trading for relievers, but he's been one of the few strengths of the bullpen this season.
It's looking like Berkman fetched two solid major leaguers, even if neither have a chance to be as big a star as he was. Imagine if Houston had gotten a couple players for Myers...
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Your thoughts on the Myers non-trade are spot on.
We could have sold high on someone we bought low on, but decided to extend him instead for some reason. We’re undoubtedly stuck with him to start next season and with any luck, he’ll stop giving up so many HRs and have a decent enough season that he can fetch us a C(+) level prospect or two with some upside. I’m starting to believe in our instruction on the farm, especially at AA and Burt Hooten at AAA, so chances are some of that potential can be tapped, like with Paredes (who some here speculated was only at AA at the beginning of the year for the perception that we got some value for Berkman).
There's a (very) small chance Paredes could be as valuable as Berkman was
Probably still well below 5%, but rising as he shows more production to go along with his tools.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Berkman gave near-MVP production for a number of years
I like Paredes, but there’s no way he puts up those kinds of numbers. For him to become an all-star would be nearly shocking, and I still think there’s at least a 30-40% he flames out after this year or next, his production just doesn’t seem sustainable.
by Patrick Harrel on Sep 6, 2011 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Don't underestimate his tools
I’m as down on his actual ability to put it all together as anyone, but he does have a very high pure ceiling (in terms of absolute best-case outcome). As I said, I’d put the chance that he turns into a star-type player down well below 5%—maybe in the 1-2% range right now. Certainly far lesser chance that he turns into that caliber player than that he flames out and becomes a career minor leaguer, at this point.
Just pointing out that it’s not completely impossible, the way it is for a player like Shuck.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Since you brought up Shuck, I’m glad that Mills finally put somebody with power in the three hole tonight. Martinez was given the day off, so it was a good thing that Mills didn’t waste the three hole on a singles hitter.
I think there was a couple of good reasons Mills had for leaving a more logical choice like Bogusevic out of the three hole.
1.) Bogusevic has been hitting real good lately and was bound to regress.
2.) Its a given that Carlos Lee will be on base all night so someone has to be able to drive him in.
by conroestro on Sep 7, 2011 1:19 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I actually think his best assets so far are his non-batting tools. I really love his defense at third, both with his glove and his arm, and I LOVE watching him on the basepaths. I can’t speak to whether he is officially the fastest guy on the team, but he sure does seem awfully fast getting to first.
by pancakebreakfast on Sep 7, 2011 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Schafer is faster
But Paredes does have a nice power/speed/defense combo which is what I think gives him a high best case ceiling. But, I kind of want to make a distinction between “best case ceiling” and “realistic ceiling”. A more plausible amount of improvement would be for him to become a solid everyday regular, and that would probably be his realistic ceiling.
Just wanted to point out, there is plenty to dream on with his tools.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Agreed about Jimmy's celiling
Its hard to even imagine what he could be at the extreme end of the bell curve (the good end).
I’m not able to see as many games as I would like living in Chicago, but JP looks like a CF playing 3B in terms of athleticism. Similar to an Adam Jones, Drew Stubbs or Austin Jackson.
I don’t think he will ever hit for as much power as Stubbs projects to, but his ceiling could be an offensive comparison to Adam Jones.
On Myers, Hindsight is 20-20. Most of the articles and comments at TCB on the Myers’ extension last year were positive (perhaps mildly positive is a better description). I think the prevalent view here at TCB was that Myers would experience some regression but that, even with normal regression, he would provide value to the team this year and would remain as a trading piece in future years if necessary. What we have seen from Myers is regression that is greater than expected, i.e., he is now underperforming his talent level. There was also the view that Arnsberg had somehow brought out the best in Myers. Now that Arnsberg is gone, that rationale is gone.
If Myers stays healthy, the liklihood is that normal regression will come into play and he will produce better results next year. SIERA is supposed to be the best predictive pitching statistic and Myers’ SIERA for 2011 is 3.82. I have always viewed Myers as a 4.0 – 4.6 ERA pitcher who fits the inning eater category. ZIPS Update predicts that Myers will end up with a 4.43 ERA this year.
by clack on Sep 7, 2011 7:17 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I had a typo, above. It should read “4.0 – 4.5” ERA.
by clack on Sep 7, 2011 7:18 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The TCB writers might have liked it....
But I recall many of us posters/readers ripping Wade for giving him a long-term deal based on a statistical anomaly compared to the rest of his career.
You don’t want to trade him cause you don’t like the returns? Fine. Just don’t mortgage the future by giving him a LT deal.
I might be in the minority here, but I don’t think it would have been worth it to trade Myers last season. I doubt we would have recieved much in return; last year, it was rumored that the Mets wouldn’t even give up Bobby Parnell and Josh Thole for Myers at the deadline. But who knows what other offers were out there?
The extension obviously hasn’t worked out so far, but I supported it at the time. Our rotation was about to get much younger in a hurry, and you need to have at least one solid veteran pitcher on your staff to show the younger guys the ropes. That still holds true, with Wandy looking like he’ll be traded before next season.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Sep 7, 2011 8:54 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Yes, I suspect that we would have been disappointed with the trade return that Myers would have brought last season. He would have been a two month rental.
by clack on Sep 7, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sans the Myers and Lyon signings...
is Ed Wade making a big push to keep his job?
Given the circumstances, you have to consider the Berkman and Oswalt deals wins already given that Wade had little-to-no-leverage, yet got some serious talent back in the deals, albeit very raw.
Keppinger trade, that’s already a win. Pence deal, Philly is still trying to figure out what happened. Bourne deal, looking better with Clemens showing well at AA and Schafer looking promising with good defense.
I realize that our talent level has been so bad that it was easy to upgrade the talent, but Henry Sosa has looked good at the major league level. Just because he wasn’t good enough to start for SFO, doesn’t mean he couldn’t be in the rotation for may teams.
He got a lot of heat for some of the players he took back. (Yankee fans probably didn’t even know who Paredes was. Villar was an afterthought in the Philly farm.)
But it is looking like Wade took advantage of some teams’ failure to scout their own system effectively and has continued to grab talent off the waiver wire.
by Raidas77 on Sep 7, 2011 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I disagree that Philly is dissatisfied with the trade.
Teams don’t stock their minor league clubs just for the sake of saying, “Hey, look where Baseball America has us ranked!” (In reality, that doesn’t mean squat.) They stock those minor league clubs to be able to make trades like they have for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence to increase their chances of making it to the World Series and winning it.
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4 game series vs Rockies @ Coors Field
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Houston Astros
Monday, May 28, 2012, 2:10 PM CDT Wandy Rodriguez vs Juan Nicasio Sunny. Winds blowing in from center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 70. |
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| Mon 05/28 | 7:10 PM CDT | |
| Wed 05/30 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
| Thu 05/31 | 7:40 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
27 | 20 | .574 | 0 | Won 2 |
|
St. Louis
|
26 | 22 | .541 | 1.5 | Won 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
23 | 24 | .489 | 4 | Won 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 25 | .468 | 5 | Lost 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 28 | .404 | 8 | Lost 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 32 | .319 | 12 | Lost 12 |
(updated 5.28.2012 at 12:18 AM CDT)
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