What If: Draft Day Alternate Reality

First off, a huge hat tip to ntn; I stole the headline of his recent fanpost in which he looks at what coulda-been, had the Astros stayed healthy.  It's an enjoyable read, and I shamelessly acknowledge that his post gave me the idea for this one.

It is June 2000.  The past eleven years haven't happened.  No World Series berth, no Clemens-Petittte-Oswalt trifecta, no Cecil Cooper, no Ed Wade, no Woody Williams or Jason Jennings.  God gives the Astros a chance at a do-over (at the urging of the archangel Gabriel, who, for some reason, feels an affinity with Houston).  God instructs the Astros that they are playing for 2011 and beyond, and He gives them the following rules:

God:  "Here art thine decade do-over commandments:

1. Thou shalt only draft players who would have been available during thine picks in the true reality.  
2. Thou shalt not dig too deeply.  Thou shalt not draft a player for the 2nd round who actually went in the 24th round.
3. Thou shalt not sign Free Agents, nor shall thou trade, nor shall thou acquire players using any method other than the first-year player's draft every June.  The players thou drafteth shalt be on thine roster until yon end of the 2011 season and beyond."

With those commandments in mind, the 2000 Astros have fired their GM and hired me to run their next eleven drafts, due to my my foreknowledge of future success and aptitude for revisionist history.

June 2000:

Armed with a decade's worth of stats, most notably WAR (Wins over Replacement), and Baseball Reference's handy draft tracking utility, I begin my search for an improved 2011 Astros team.  The Astros 2000 draft was a bust, I decide, sneering at the pick of Robert Stiehl at No. 27 overall.  I quickly toss him aside and snatch up Adam Wainwright to anchor my starting rotation.  He had been destined to go two picks later to the Braves, but this time around, he's wearing the star.  In Round 2, I choose to keep the Astros pick of Chad Qualls at pick 67.  Sure, Grady Sizemore is still available, but I'm willing to bet that in the next 10 years I can find three more promising outfielders, and nobody else in Rounds 2 or 3 have a better WAR than Qualls.  Every team needs good relief pitching.  The fans hate me, but I know what I'm doing.

June 2001:

After the lukewarm reaction from fans after the 2000 draft (despite my insistence that it just wasn't a very good draft class), I knew that to regain public trust I would need to make a splash.  2001 was my perfect chance.  I decided to let Chris Burke become somebody else's disappointment and sign my third baseman of the future, David Wright.  Wright should have dropped 20 more picks to land in the laps of the Mets, but I got him first.  In the 2nd Round, I rightly recognized that Astros fans in 2011 would have no clue who Mike Rodriguez even is, and eschewed him to take Dan Haren at pick 54.  Sorry Cardinals, you don't get Danny Boy after all.  My rotation is looking pretty stout at this point, and the fans love the picks.

June 2002:

After much soul-searching, I decide that 29th pick Derick Grigsby may not even make it to the majors, so I bypass him in favor of my catcher, Brian McCann.  #70 pick Mitch Talbot is pushed aside, and I take my right fielder of the future, Curtis Granderson, who wins a surprise NL MVP award in 2011 with the Astros.

June 2003:

Not needing a 3rd starter right away, I bypass Jason Hirsh with my second round pick.  Alas, fate did not resupply me with the 1st-round pick I lost via free agent signings in the "real" space-time continuum.  Sticking with the outfield theme from 2002, I confidently select Andre Ethier to man Left Field, knowing that his power and patience will compliment Wright in the middle of the lineup.

June 2004:

Again, I  have no Round 1 pick.  After I finish cursing the "real timeline" Astros GM, I look through my options.  I am very tempted to stick with Texas native Hunter Pence in 2004, and almost pull the trigger on my second player to man the Houston roster in both timelines, but then my eye drifts to a future MVP winner at a typically offensively-challenged position.  I say a regretful adieu to Pence and snatch up my second baseman, Dustin Pedroia.  I figure Pedroia will slide in nicely as the No. 2 hitter behind Granderson.

June 2005:

I have two picks in 2005!  I am elated.  Unfortunately, the epic trove of MVP-level prospects (Upton, Zimmerman, Braun, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Romero, McCutchen, Bruce, Ellsbury) are all off the board.  Not to fear, as some quality talent still slid to my draft position.  I gleefully let Brian Bogusevic's bum arm drift into somebody else's lap and snatch up Matt Garza, knowing other GM's will drool from envy over Garza pitching for me out of the number 3 spot.  I could have Eli Org with my second pick in the first round, but choose not to go there for obvious reasons.  Sifting through the available players, I bypass Clay Buchholz (I don't need my fourth starter yet), and Jed Lowrie (I just don't trust his defensive chops!) and snatch up Yunel Escobar, who should have dropped all the way to the end of the 2nd round.  17.4 career WAR through 2011 at a premium defensive position?  Other teams wish they were me.

June 2006:

The 2006 draft just can't hold a candle to the 2005 draft.  Where last year I found a dozen players I wanted to play for my team in the first few rounds and only could select two, this year I have two picks in the first two rounds, and nobody available who excites me.  The commandments won't let me say, "Can I just sign nobody and keep the picks for next year?", so I disregard Maxx Sapp and Sergio Perez and take my new closer Daniel Bard and fourth starter Justin Masterson instead.  I have a feeling Masterson will have a breakout year in 2011.  Call it a hunch.

June 2007:

In 2007, I shake my head.  What a waste.  My first pick is in Round 3.  In the real world, the Astros would have drafted Derrick Deitrich and then refuse to sign him.  Perusing my options in Round 3 and below, I hold my nose and select Marc Rzepczynski, because he's a good swingman, and because I really like typing his name.

June 2008:

Another weak draft.  How I dream of 2005.  I've already got my catcher in McCann, so I let Jason Castro walk at pick 10 and instead select Ike Davis.  Not exciting, I know, but I need a first baseman and he seems to be one of those unexciting but surprisingly good players to me.  I'm very comfortable with the selection, knowing that most teams overpay for a 1B with limited skills.  I get to underpay for a 1B with underrated skills.  Works for me.  As for Jordan Lyles, well I'm just not seeing anybody else on the board that excites me, so I go with the flow and pencil Lyles in as my 5th starter.  Maybe 2012 will be his year.  For the first time since the year 2000, fans are not happy with my choices, but hey, when life (or the draft class) hands you lemons...

June 2009:

This is getting tricky.  I want my draftee here to play in 2011, but he's going to be very young, regardless of who I pick.  Luckily, I have revisionist history and I know that Jiovanni Mier looks like the king of flops.  So, I ignore him in favor of 2011 #1 prospect Mike Trout, who I assign to play center field.  I am shocked that he strangely dropped to me at pick 21, but I don't complain.  This guy is going to be a beast, and he's reportedly a nice guy to boot.  I look forward to future comparisons between him and Bryce Harper of the Nationals.  I don't see anybody in later rounds that I want, so I move on to 2010.

June 2010:

Not many players from the 2010 draft made it into the majors, but I already have a 2B.  I decide to pass on Delino DeShields, Jr. and instead take Chris Sale.  Sale's a hard-throwing guy who should look good in my bullpen in 2011, but in 2012 I plan to make him my 5th starter if Lyles struggles.  A handy guy to have around, with top of rotation potential.  I like the pick.

Well, that was a trip.  Remind me to send Gabriel a thank-you note for interceding to get me a second chance to re-do Astros drafts of the past decade.  I just need to fill out a lineup card and send it to my manager, then watch the playoff wins pile up.

Astros Revisionist History 2011 Lineup: