Ranking Astros' player performances in August
by clack on Sep 2, 2011 8:00 AM CDT
in Stat Geeky
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PrintSample size be damned. The Astros are a different team after the July 31 trade deadline. We want to talk about the current team. Now. And, well, all we have is a one month sample. So, let's run with it. I could give you a disclaimer about the sample size that reads like it was written by a lawyer. But I think most of us around here know that a single month's performance shouldn't be used to tell us what will happen in the future.
How do the Astros' players' August performance rank among NL players at each position? For qualified players, Runs Created as measured by RC+ and WAR are shown.
NL Ranking: August Performance
RC+ (Rank), WAR (Rank)
1st base
Carlos Lee 140 (9th), 0.9 (6th)
2d base
Altuve 92 (9th), 0.2 (11th)
3d base
Paredes 112 (6th), 0.7 (5th)
Shortstop
Barmes 76 (10th), 0.4 (5th)
Left Field
J.D. Martinez 125 (8th), 1.3 (3d)
As you will notice, we are missing a few positions. That's because the Astros didn't have any players who were qualified at those missing positions. So, we will compound our sample size problem by delving into the Astros players who are not non-qualified. Because WAR is not readily available on a monthly basis for these players, the faux ranking will be based on RC+ and wOBA. The rankings are marked with an asterick because it attempts to show how the player would rank in August at their position if they were qualified. Truthfully, I wouldn't give much credence to the ranking, given the non-qualified players' sample size.
August NL Performance
(RC+, wOBA)
Right Field
Brian Bogusevic 174 (2d*), .425 (2d*)
Center Field
Jordan Shafer 148 (3d*), .383 (4th)
Catcher
Corporan 64 (last*), .264 (last*)
Quintero 71 (last*), .275 (last*)
Some interesting notes:
- Several Astros had very good defensive months of August, according to UZR. J.D. Martinez was the best LF defender. Barmes and Lee were the second best shortstop and 1st baseman, respectively. Paredes was the 4th best third base fielder. But beware the sample size caveat for advanced fielding metrics.
- Inserting Martinez in LF and moving Lee to 1st base resulted in a fairly impressive increase in the team's WAR. If not for his negative base running, Lee would have had the 2d highest WAR among 1st basemen.
- Bogusevic's faux-ranking of 2d for wOBA and RC+ is just behind No. 1 ranked Hunter Pence---whom he replaced after the trading deadline.
- Quintero's and Corporan's offensive stats are poor, but keep in mind that there are only 5 qualified catchers in the NL.
Now, on to the pitchers' August rankings. I look only at starting pitchers in the Top 35 for several pitching stats. I have also shown Astros' relievers ranked in the Top 35 for shutdowns and meltdowns.
August ERA
Wandy Rodriguez 3.32 (26th)
August tERA
Henry Sosa 3.97 (22d)
Brett Myers 4.18 (24th)
August FIP
Henry Sosa 3.56 (24th)
Brett Myers 3.74 (28th)
K/9
Bud Norris 8.74 (12th)
Wandy Rodriguez 8.05 (20th)
Henry Sosa 7.05 (30th)
Relievers
Shutdowns
F. Rodriguez 8 (9th)
M. Melancon 6 (20th)
Meltdowns
F. Rodriguez 3 (6th)
M. Melancon 3 (6th)
It comes as a surprise that Brett Myers and Henry Sosa have been among the better pitchers in the NL in August. Bud Norris continued to strike out hitters in August, but he hasn't gotten the top results on other pitching stats in August. Wandy continues to exhibit a steady ERA in August.
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Thanks for the info. The biggest thing that I have been impressed with is the defense of this young team. The fact that the defense has improved at the same time the pitching has really improved is probably no coincidence. That’s promising looking towards the future, because the offense has major, gigantic question marks, but if defense and pitching could be solid then the Astros will at least be interesting next year.
My question is could the Astros have one of the top defenses in the NL next year. Assuming Barmes resigns (a big if) the Astros would have the same infield with Castro returning behind the plate. Paredes will almost surely regress at the plate, but he looks to be pretty fundamentally sound outside of the fact of making a couple of ill advised decisions which will happen with young players. Barmes is solid, and Altuve also looks to play above average defense at second. Lee looks capable of handling first so the infield looks solid. As far as the outfield go Bogusevic and Schafer both look to be above average defenders. Martinez has surprised me so far, but I would say of the three he is definitely the weakest link due to his mobility. What do you think.
by conroestro on Sep 2, 2011 9:24 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Surprisingly Altuve was a negative defensive 2d baseman, according to UZR, which accounts for his low WAR total in August. But this is a case where DRS and UZR disagree, since DRS shows him as a positive defensive player. I think this is probably a sample size issue for UZR, since Altuve had 2 errors in one month, and UZR penalizes players more for errors. From what I have seen, Altuve looks good on defense, though this may come from watching Keppinger and Sanchez at 2d base for so long. In any event, in the long term I would view Altuve as at least average and probably a positive fielder.
UZR loves what Martinez has done in LF. And DRS also shows a positive defensive result. I have to think that the fielding metrics will come back to earth for him with a larger sample size. But I am encouraged by what he has done so far. If he can be even a slightly positive defender in LF, that would be more than we expected. Bogusevic also has good defensive metrics in 2011. Though the sample size is too small, it is believable that he could be a plus defender in a corner outfield position.
I think the Astros have the potential to be a much better defensive team next year, particularly if Barmes returns.
by clack on Sep 2, 2011 9:53 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I know way to small of even a small sample size for Schafer, but he’s looked pretty solid out there to me. I think he’s an upgrade over Bourgeois.
I agree.
As a side note, in this article, when Schafer beat out an infield hit against SF, his stop watch time was 3.86 seconds, which the Astros say is comparable to Bourn’s time down the line. Schafer modestly declines to compare himself to “Bournie,” as he calls him. (Has Brad Mills changed every player’s vocabulary?)
by clack on Sep 2, 2011 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That was a Milo thing long before it was a Mills thing.
by pancakebreakfast on Sep 2, 2011 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions
The reason I came over hea is to get an answer to the CF question
I am a Schafer supporter since he came up in the Atl. organization. And I intend to keep on following his progress.
He whose words outnumber his deeds, know that his death is better than his life.
I know it’s a joke. Of course, the reason that they can both be ranked last is that this is a ranking assuming you put one of them in the league ranking, as if they were qualified. For what it’s worth, Quintero would rank slightly ahead of Corporan, if we put both of them in the qualified rankings. There are a lot of really bad offensive players among the catchers who are non-qualified, by the way.
by clack on Sep 2, 2011 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Considering how well we played in 2nd half of 2010
only to stink up the joint this year, I have a hard time believing a team upswing will be indicative of how they will play next year.
Pitching, pitching, and pitching. We need pretty major upticks from 3 rotation spots to gain respectability next season.
Clint Barmes, somehow we need to re-sign him, even if we have to overpay. Villar needs another season and a half, so does 2-years $12m get it done?
I would be okay with that. Agreed that Villar needs more time.
by conroestro on Sep 2, 2011 9:39 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Thinking back to last year, there were a few things all of us agree on. We knew Myers wasn’t quite that good, we knew Happ wasn’t quite that good and we knew CJ wasn’t even close to that good. I’m scared to even look at who’s not as good as they seem this year. I think we can expect Paredes too dip CJ style, but still provide good d. I think Altuve and Martinez can actually improve a bit. Same with Lyles.
Maybe some positive regression from Myers(he had a pregnant wife all season. That can’t be easy) and Happ, and some natural progression from Norris.
That’s funny to Marty. Your on a roll.
by conroestro on Sep 2, 2011 10:19 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Negative regression from current #’s: 3B (Paredes), RF (Bogusevic), CF (Schafer) Bench (Bourgeois, Shuck, Downs), SP (Sosa)
Positive regression from current #’s: C (Castro), SP (Happ, Myers, Lyles)
Stay the same: 1B (Lee), 2B (Altuve), SS (Barmes), LF (Martinez), Bench (Sanchez, Q/Corporan), SP (Wandy, Norris), all the relievers (Escalona, Wright, Carp, Lopez, Melancon, F Rod).
I think we’ll be a better team next year. 75 wins should be the bar. Paredes, Bogusevic, and Schafer all 3 could surprise and keep up their stellar #s, and even if they don’t their defense should be average or better.
by Snake Diggity on Sep 2, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
Good stuff.
Surprised that Altuve was below average for a starting NL 2B.
Hopefully Castro can do well next year.
If Happ really is back on track, the pitching staff should be pretty solid next season (if Wandy and Myers are still around).
I have hope for this young bullpen. Melancon has shown he is probably better suited as a setup man, but Lopez, F Rod, and Carpenter all appear to be solid late-inning relievers. Throw in Wright and Escalona has 2 lefties who have been really effective and there’s reason for optimism.
Way too early to tell but....
The early returns on Jordan Schafer have been very decent. There is a chance that Ed Wade could have gotten a steal in this Michael Bourn trade.
Frank Wren is a good GM, but seems like a guy that overvalues his talent. Reports from Atlanta were that he wasn’t ready to give up on Schafer just yet.
I am definitely excited to see what this guy can do over the course of a full season. I was already started to cry for Bourn back when Bourgeois was roaming the outfield. Maybe Schafer will make us not miss Bourn. He seems like he’s determined to make a name for himself here in Houston which is a good thing.
by conroestro on Sep 2, 2011 1:27 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
The Michael Bourn trade as a whole is growing on me. I’m not saying that Wade received the next Michael Bourn, Bud Norris, Brad Lidge, and Wandy Rodriguez, but if one of those guys reaches there ceilings with the others all having high floors then the trade could be a good one.
by conroestro on Sep 2, 2011 1:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Especially considering the Astros traded away a player
that was having a career year which he is unlikely to duplicate as he’s the same free swinging guy he was with the Astros.
If Schafer doesn’t work out, oh well, Springer will be here in 2013 if not September 2012.
by Neil Leininger on Sep 2, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Ya, I think Pence will be even better next year
Das a bet!
by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 2, 2011 3:33 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't see how he could
Maybe because of that bandbox the Phils play in, is the only reason I can see that such could happen. His BABIP is .365 this year and this is almost certain to regress. Maybe he manages to be a .290/.345/.480 player but I don’t see him being a .312/.366/.492 player (which is where he stands right now).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Have to agree with OremLK
I think Hunter might have a 30hr season with the Phillies due the fact he is hitting behind Howard and the ball park. Eventually he will start swinging at all those sliders again.
That was my train of thought
Pence will be playing in a MUCH better lineup and will benefit greatly from that. Now if he were still in Houston, I don’t see him repeating or exceeding this years production but he wouldn’t drop off too much.
by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 2, 2011 4:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
It's never been shown
That “protection” has a real statistical effect. I won’t rule it out entirely but there is little to no evidence to support that.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Fair enough
But the fact that Pence was the PICTURE OF CONSISTENCY here, seeing him in a better lineup for a full year next year should give us an idea of what the difference is next year. This is if they keep Jimmy though, otherwise their lineup changes for the worse.
by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 2, 2011 11:44 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
If you're testing for the effect "lineup protection" has on Pence
That still doesn’t rule out a potential effect a winning atmosphere has on a player’s performance.
There’s many variables in play here.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
I'm not saying those things can't happen
We just don’t have any evidence to support that they do occur.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
his BB rate has skyrocketed.
in 2011 it was 6.9% with us.
With Philly it is 12.6%
Smaller sample size obviously, but that is a huge jump. Guys who walk that often don’t grow on trees. Among ML qualifiers only 15 players have a higher BB% rate than 12.6.
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| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Cincinnati
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St. Louis
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Houston
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