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Rotation Predictions for 2012

With so many innings being logged by the starting pitcher, it is necessary for a rotation to be able to perform quality work in order for the team to do well. Of course, the bullpen, offense, and defense have to do well too in order for all parts of the team to perform well together. But the rotation didn't do well this year, and that partially caused us to plummet to a 100 loss season. How can next year be any different?

Among the 9 players who pitched in the rotation this year, the best of them were Bud Norris & Wandy Rodriguez. Norris really took a step forward this year by commanding his pitches much better than he did last year. In effect, he's been ace-like in most of his starts. Wandy had a good season all around as well. But the rest of the rotation this year has been pretty terrible. Brett Myers was battling with Bronson Arroyo for most homeruns given up and J.A. Happ's control problems caused his ERA to soar up in the 6.00 range. Aneury Rodriguez didn't do well enough to stick as a starter, and Jordan Lyles still has things to learn if he wants to become anything but a #5 starter.

Star-divide

So, here are my predictions:

Starting Rotation at the beginning of the year

S1: Wandy Rodriguez
S2: Bud Norris
S3: Brett Myers
S4: J.A Happ
S5: Henry Sosa / Jordan Lyles / Lucas Harrell

Given how the rotation this year was a weakness, I don't see the Astros trading Wandy in the off-season since that would cause more fans to lose interest in the Astros, something that Crane might not want to do when / if he becomes owner. Also, given the recent success in J.A. Happ & Brett Myers, those two will probably be a lock for the rotation starting off next year, spring training performances notwithstanding.

The only real competition in spring training may only be for the 5th spot in the rotation, just like last year. Jordan Lyles could become a great pitcher if he can work on his breaking pitches. Presumably, the best place for that would be in the minors, but if Lyles does great in spring training like he did this year, he may win the spot outright depending on the performances of the other pitchers in ST. Henry Sosa has also done pretty well for the most part. His fastball / slider combo has worked well when he can command his pitches. And Lucas Harrell is also a possibility if he doesn't end up in the bullpen.

Someone who could also surprise people in taking the rotation by storm could be Xavier Cedeno. He has a lot of movement on his curveball which is responsible for high strikeout games in the minors this year. The Astros view him currently as a reliever, but that mindset might change based on how well he does from now until the end of spring training.

Other players who could be considered for a spot in the rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Aneury Rodriguez, Lance Pendleton, Paul Clemens.

Starting Rotation later in the year

Given the performances of pitchers in the beginning of the year, the rotation could change quite a bit. Pitchers could be sent down, released, or traded. This would allow for pitchers at Triple-A to get a shot in the bigs. Paul ClemensAfter the first few months of the season, there are several players who could be considered rotation candidates who weren't previously considered in Spring Training, such as the players listed shortly above. But the most intriguing player that comes to my mind is Jarred Cosart. Cosart would be starting the year off at Double-A next year, but he has a very electric repertoire of pitches and could become a #1 starter as early as 2013. Cosart might get an invite to ST which might help his chances of making it to the bigs next year. The reason why I mention Cosart above the plethora of pitchers who would be ahead of him on the depth chart is because Cosart has a chance of becoming more than just a #4 or #5 starter. If he does well to start the season next year, he could be in Houston before long.

If Myers or Wandy do happen to be traded next year, new opportunities would open up for the younger pitchers.

Up next: Offensive Predictions for 2012


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Comments

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I wouldn't lock down Happ in the rotation yet

If Myers and Wandy are both traded then anything is possible, but if they both are still here to start the season I think the #4 and 5 spots are up for grabs between Happ, Lyles, Sosa, Harrell and Cedeno. Personally I like Harrell and Cedeno to start the season.

by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 18, 2011 10:28 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Speaking of Cedeno though

Anybody else see him as a little Wandy?

by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 18, 2011 10:33 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

He has a really good curve.

I would think he would be a much better starter than Fernando Abad because he has better stuff. His arm angle says “Loogy”, but I’d like to see him be tried as a starter.

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

by BustaPozee on Sep 19, 2011 5:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

I think Cedeno’s ceiling is likely as a relief pitcher, perhaps a late inning reliever if he takes to the role well.

by clack on Sep 19, 2011 8:17 AM CDT up reply actions  

If by “little Wandy,” you mean stature, Cedeno is listed at 6-1. So I don’t think he is similar physically.

by clack on Sep 19, 2011 8:19 AM CDT up reply actions  

I meant prospect-wise

I think, with their similar stuff, Wandy is a good comp for what Cedeno is capable of. They are both soft toss lefties with a plus (plus plus?), curveball.

I for some reason seem to be the only one intrigued by Cedeno as a starter though, can someone tell me what I’m missing? Are Cedenos minor league numbers misleading?

by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 19, 2011 6:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

His curveball is not plus-plus

Plus may even be pushing it from what I’ve seen. It’s a decent pitch, yes, but I don’t think it’s something that will stand out at the MLB level.

by Patrick Harrel on Sep 19, 2011 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

I see Jordan Lyles in a starting slot

with Happ and Sosa battling for the fifth slot (assuming the current staff returns intact)

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Sep 19, 2011 1:31 AM CDT reply actions  

I have doubts about Sosa as a starter

He really needs more than two pitches to be taken seriously as a starter. However as a RP he won’t have to go a second or third time through the lineup. (You can only throw 2 pitches for 3 strikes so many different ways before hitters figure it out.)

However, I’m officially driving the Harrell bandwagon. Happ still has some impressing left to do…

by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 19, 2011 6:30 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Sosa performed poorly as a relief pitcher in the SF organization, but better as a starter. That may or may not mean anything about his ability to be a reliever. But his tendency to have his bad inning in the first inning would make me concerned that he may not be the type of pitcher who can come out of the pen and immediately throw well. (Paulino was another example of that type of pitcher.) I think Sosa can pitch as a starter with his pitch repertoire, but I think it confines him to a 4 or 5 starter.

by clack on Sep 19, 2011 8:27 AM CDT up reply actions  

I agree he might be Paulino-ish

Not being able to pitch out of the pen for whatever reason. Right now results are what matter and he’s been pitching well and keeping the team in the game, but in the long run, IMO, I think teams figure him out and he gets chewed up as a starter. That is unless he develops a 3rd and/or 4th pitch.

by Its Gonna Happen on Sep 19, 2011 6:17 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Only problem with Happ is that I believe he's out of options next year

If not, that’s great, but if he is, then I doubt Wade wants to put him through waivers before seeing if he can doing anything productive next year.

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

by BustaPozee on Sep 19, 2011 5:50 AM CDT reply actions  

Pecking order:

Wandy – solid #2
Norris – solid #3
Lyles – should be a solid #3 next year
Myers – solid #3-4
Happ – still profiles as a solid #4-5
Sosa – showed some good things and will be first in event of trade/injury/underperformance
Aneury – probably will be back in the bullpen in long relief
Harrell – probably slated for AAA as insurance
Cedeno- will be in the LOOGY mix, if not, might make AAA’s rotation
Clemens -almost certainly in AAA’s rotation
Keuchel – see Keuchel
Oberholtzer – may be in big camp, but won’t be ready; may start in AA again.
Van Hekken – AAAA, but a stellar spring could put him in the mix if others falter.
Sergio Perez – see above
Hyphen – see above

I’m beginning to think that the sale of the team may be in jeopardy, and if that happens I would expect McLain to keep Wandy and Myers. I’d be shocked if Lyles was sent back down next season.

by Snake Diggity on Sep 19, 2011 9:10 AM CDT reply actions  

I agree with your #'s except for Lyles

I’m a little bummed. At this point, does it REALLY make a difference whether we pick Myers, Lyles, Happ, Sosa, Rodriguez,or etc etc etc etc?

Could we have a few more #4 starters please?

by CRPerry13 on Sep 19, 2011 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

pitching...astros

i think we need an ace starter…. like cliff lee or sabathia … we may go next yr without this…as we may be shooting for .500 finish…which would be reasonable…i like myers and happ… some of the guys who got serious tryouts look good. they are rookies…so ? …..next spring training.. mgt will solidify the team..pick a regular starting lineup…either start rotation..with myers, wandy, norris, happ, and ? lyles, harrell, sosa,….or???… or add big dog in offseason.. we have a lot of no 5s.. i like the bullpen and will be better with ? coming back from surgery… still think melancon is very good, but not a closer… some other new guys look credible…in my opinion..only fixed position is clee at 1b… are we going to al? if so, clee is dh…..mike h

by Mike HJALM on Sep 30, 2011 12:14 PM CDT reply actions  

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