2013 World Champions? **MUST READ**

Could have a solid lineup if everyone hits their ceilings. Let me rephrase; WOULD DEFINATELY have a solid lineup if everyone hits their ceilings! 2013 is possibly but 2014 is more probable, with more of the guys really coming into their power/prime years.

Its Gonna Happen!

Can this group of promising young prospects form the nucleus of a championship team?

Not to be Debbie Downer, but….No.

1. Why, oh why, would Cain and Kemp want to come here? That’s a pretty big stretch. I’m glad your recognized that it takes more than a bumper crop of minor leaguers to build a team. And I don’t see Jim Crane wanting to spend almost $40MM/year on two players. That’s 67% of next year’s entire budget!!

2. I’m on record with my opinion that your prediction about Altuve is WAAAAAAAY optimistic. Not impossible, but very, very, very, very, very, very, very unlikely.

3. Re: Hinze, Paredes, Villar, Martinez, Shuck, Oberholtzer, Wikoff, Wallace, Wates….that’s eight players you list and only one of them (Martinez) has even sniffed the tail-end of national top-100 prospects lists.

4. I doubt you’ll see Cosart, Singleton, or Springer in the major leagues until late 2014 or early 2015. They’re all three very young, and impact major leaguers that get called up between ages 20 and 24 are relatively very, very rare.

I feel like I’m constantly down on the Astros, but I’m just trying to keep perspective. I’m just not buying the roster you list above. You can’t win a World Series with only one sure star-level hitter (Kemp). You can’t even make the playoffs like that. It will likely take more development, a couple surprises from the farm, and 5 to 6 really impact free agents.

Given his pedigree, it’s far too soon to give up on Brett Wallace.

Easy, Killer.

2013 is optimistic for sure. Next season will be another year where the record is not a consideration, as the focus will be on finding out more about prospects and establishing a new nucleus. I would be happy with 75 wins next year.

2013 is interesting because there are so few contract obligations. Assuming Myers and Wandy are dealt, Wilton Lopez and Mark Melancon, 2 1st year arbitration eligible relievers, project as the highest paid players on the roster. If Crane and Co. want to get aggressive and compete, they probably could, but it will cost them some dough. It’s impossible to completely pin down what the needs will be, but $50M, spent correctly on the free agent/trade market, can improve a team an awful lot in a big hurry.

That said, I think it would be extraordinarily foolish for Houston to take on any $100M contracts in the next few years. The only time it makes sense to take on that kind of deal is if you are 1-2 players away from a championship run. You don’t spend $100M on 1 player to go from 75 wins to 80 wins.

Next season, I’d like them to continue aggressively promoting their prospects while adding a few key vets on short term deals to make the team a little more competitive. Adding a couple of versatile veteran bats could go a long way to mitigating the unknowns of having such a young and unproven roster. 2 pending free agents I like are Ryan Doumit and Omar Infante. Both are unlikely to break the bank and can be a legit middle order bat on a team as bad as Houston projects to be. Doumit can play backup catcher and in the outfield, while Infante can play all over. I’d like to see an opening-day 2012 roster looking something like this:

C: Castro/Doumit
1B: Lee
2B: Altuve
SS: Barmes/Infante
3B: Paredes/Downs
RF: Shuck/Bourgeois
CF: Schafer/Durango
LF: Martinez
Rotation: Wandy, Norris, Lyles, Myers, Harrell
Bullpen: Wright, Escalona, F Rod, Lopez, Carpenter, Lyon, Melancon

It’s highly likely that the team will struggle again and be sellers at the deadline, which means players like Wandy, Myers, Lee, Lyon, Barmes, Doumit, and Infante can be shipped off for additional prospects. Myers and Wandy should have higher value since their contracts will be shorter and hopefully Myers’ performance rebounds.

In the unlikely event that the team is competitive, they can stand pat and hope for a miracle run.

I’ll grant you that 2013 is still a realistic timetable to have a competitive (above .500) team. Even with a low payroll of $60M, if the hit rate on this current crop of young prospects is anything close to good, the team should be good enough to win half its games. Prospects like Singleton, Chris Wallace, Jon Villar, Jake Goebbert, Austin Wates, Cosart, Clemens, Keuchel, and Oberholtzer should all start at AA or above in 2012, meaning they could very well be ready for the show by the beginning of 2013. At catcher, out of Wallace and Castro, you have to assume that one of them will man the position at an above-average level. Between Singleton, Hinze, and Brett Wallace, 1st base should be set by 2013 as well. Altuve is already entrenched at 2B. SS is a conundrum, as it’s a total unknown whether Villar or Mier will be ready by 2013. Villar could explode next season, but it’s just as likely that he will flame out. So SS is a position that could need some free agent attention. Between Paredes, CJ, Brett Wallace, and Jon Meyer (who I"m more and more turning my attention to as a big time sleeper in AA next year), 3B should be adequately addressed, especially if you assume it will be a bottom-of-the-order position. The OF looks like it should be deep. Martinez looks like the real deal so far in LF. Schafer was the starting CF for a playoff team before we acquired him. It’s probably unrealistic to expect potential superstars like Springer and Ovando to be ready by 2013, but between Bourgeois, Goebbert, Shuck, and Wates (among others), RF shouldn’t be a sore spot. Overall offensively, I think it’s safe to say that beyond SS, there are aren’t any glaring weaknesses, but there also aren’t any surething superstars. Without dropping a bunch of free agent cash, and assuming players pan out as profiled (mostly solid, but no superstars), this is the offense of a 75-85 win team.

By 2013, Norris and Lyles shoudl be established as, at worst, solid middle rotation guys. The back end of the rotation should be fine with 2-3 out of hte list of Clemens, Keuchel, Oberholtzer, Aneury, Buchanan, Harrell, Sosa, etc. The bullpen is already solid if inconsistent, but between the young players already in Houston and the stable of relief arms in AA and AAA, the bullpen, aside from having a lights-out closer (assuming Melancon isn’t that guy), should be solid. Cosart may be ready to move to Houston by 2013, but he probably won’t be ready to be the ace of a playoff team.

So it appears that the most likely needs keeping Houston from contending in 2013 would be shortstop, an all-star bat (or 2), an ace pitcher, and a lights out closer. If Crane keeps payroll in the $60M range, there should be roughly $40M to spend in free agency. While I doubt Crane would go out and spend that much, for the sake of this discussion we’ll assume he would be willing to do so if it meant fielding a contender in 2013.

Perennial All-Stars cost in the range of $15M/yr, usually on long term deals. True impact bats and arms can cost much more, upwards of $20M/yr. Even if you add 2-3 impact players, I’m not sure Houston would be a playoff favorite. Kemp would be an impact addition, but will probably cost at least $15M+ over 5+ years. Adding an ace like Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, or Zack Greinke would cost at least that much. So let’s see what the max payroll, max talent possible (if unrealistic) 2013 Astros roster would look like:

CF Schafer/Bourgeois
2B Altuve
RF Kemp/Goebbert
1B Singleton
LF Martinez
3B Paredes/BWallace
C Castro/CWallace
SS Villar/Wikoff
Rotation: Greinke, Cain, Norris, Lyles, Cosart
Bullpen: Keuchel, Oberholtzer, Clemens, Carpenter, F Rod, Lopez, Melancon

Obviously there’s a lot of possible changes to that projected roster between now and then and there’s a lot of debate about it even today. But I think that roster would probably project a win total somewhere in the 80s. That’s in range for the playoffs, but it’s by no means a dominant team. And signing guys like Greinke, Cain, and Kemp means possibly not having money for your soon-to-be arbitration eligible youngsters and future stars. It also means having those star free agent signings on your payroll well past their primes, which could hamstring the organization for years (see: Lee, Carlos).

In conclusion, while I think it’s fairly realistic of expect a much improved team and record by 2013, possibly even a winner, I think it would be foolish to go all out before 2014-2015, when we will know much more about our needs.

If Cosart becomes the ace we all want him to be, if lyles matures his game to become a solid number 2 and norris can stay healthy then the future will be bright. but if any of those fail i dont see the stros being competitive for a long time.

But that is an awful lot of money to pay for a “pretty good” pitcher with average stuff. Screams John Lackey to me, only if John Lackey didn’t throw as hard.

And paying Matt Kemp $20 million a year to patrol CF at MMP (would reduce his offensive numbers IMO) would be money poorly spent. The guy playing CF shouldn’t be someone we are relying on to hit in the middle of the order. More of a Bourn type player.