New Houston Astros Prospect Profile: Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
by David Coleman on Aug 5, 2011 8:01 AM CDT
in Player Profiles
Email
PrintI figured we'd attack the prospects coming back in the Hunter Pence andMichael Bourn trades like we did the draft. Next up is Brett Oberholtzer, where we look at his ceiling, floor and ETA to the majors. This is the start of the return in the Bourn trade, which I was pretty openly disappointed in. Let's see if Obiehockey can change my mind.
Summary
What can two MPH do? It's the difference between taking a prospect like Brett Oberholtzer seriously and one like Dallas Keuchel for granted. It's the difference between Obie's 7.5 K/9 rate in his minor league career and Keuchel's 6.5 K/9 rate.
There's a lot more to it than just that, but the two pitchers of similar ages, having both gone to college and reached Double-A, are similar in most things but their velocity. Oberholtzer is considered the best prospect Houston got in the Michael Bourn trade, even though he's projected as a back-end starter or long relief guy. The reason for that is Obie's fastball is clocked from 87-92 MPH while Keuchel sits 86-88.
Because Obie has hit above 90 on the radar gun, there are people who are more bullish on him. But, if he cannot maintain a fastball around 90, his ceiling is much, much lower. His curve and changeup are both good pitches, but are not spectacular. They are solid pitches, which is a great description for Oberholtzer. He's a solid pitcher who presents a low ceiling but a fairly solid floor.
Oh, and he's got a bad body, but it doesn't seem like most people are concerned.
Floor
With three pitches and a pretty durable frame, Obie should be able to pitch either as a fifth starter or as a reliever. Obviously, he'll need some work to see if he can stand up to pitching on a relief schedule, but I can easily see him filling in the Aneury Rodriguez role from this season, or the role we envisioned for Ryan Rowland-Smith during spring training.
Ceiling
I don't have much hope for you here. In his big test this season pitching at Double-A, Obie's strikeout rate fell under 7 and his walk rate nearly doubled. He's still maintaining a fairly good ERA, but that's because of his ridiculously low home run rate. Even with a lowered K rate, his FIP is still about half a run lower than his ERA. The consensus (and I mean everyone) thinks Obie's ceiling is as a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. If you have thoughts that Obie may turn out like Jamie Moyer or Cliff Lee, don't. Both had higher K rates in the minors than Obie. To be more than a back-of-the-rotation guy, you have to miss bats. Doesn't seem like Obie can do that enough to be a star.
ETA To Majors
Plug in his ETA with his floor and there's a lot to like with Oberholtzer. He could be taking J.A. Happ's place in the rotation by next season (or Wandy's...or Myers'). He could also break camp as a long reliever in the bullpen if the team thinks he's made good enough progress in his time with Corpus this season.
Bibliography and video after the jump...
He works with an 88-93 MPH fastball, and has a solid slider and changeup combination, along with a decent curve a few times a game. He throws strikes and profiles as a number four starter. I had him a Grade C+ pre-season and see him in the C+/B- range right now.
Oberholtzer is the best part of a package that also included righthanders Paul Clemens and Juan Abreu and outfielder Jordan Schaefer. Oberholtzer profiles as a No. 3 or 4 starter as a lefty with three solid-to-plus pitches in a 90-92 mph fastball, slider and changeup.
For me, Oberholtzer was so overhyped that it became kind of comical when I finally made the trip to watch him throw. In Chattanooga, I saw a bad-bodied pitcher with a relatively flat fastball get hit around by a poor offensive team. Oberholtzer featured a good change, but I do not know how he will work enough counts to his favor to throw it effectively.
Oberholtzer is hardly sexy, but he's a 230-pound beast built to eat innings with three average pitches that he throws for strikes. He has the potential to reach the big leagues as a fourth starter at some point in 2012.
The best player coming back to the Astros is Brett Oberholtzer, a command-and-control lefty who'll pitch at 87-92 mph with an above-average cutter and changeup; he profiles as a back-end starter, maybe a fourth guy in a mediocre rotation.
The junior college product was having a solid year in the Southern League when he was included in the Deadline deal that sent Michael Bourn to the Atlanta Braves in July. He has the chance to have at least three above-average Major League pitches. His fastball is in the 87-92 mph range, he's got a solid cutter and his changeup is an above-average offering as well. He mixes his stuff well, and it all plays up due to his outstanding command and control. His ceiling is somewhat limited -- he's more of a pitchability type -- but he could be pitching in the middle or back end of a rotation by 2012.
39 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I've been hearing some say...
That Oberholtzer has a BoR floor and an MoR ceiling, so I think you may be underrating him a little bit. That makes sense given his combination of solid stuff with plus command. When a guy mixes an assortment of solid to above average pitches with good command and pitchability, that says “no. 3-4 starter” to me. I like his delivery and up until this season (which has been solid, but unspectacular), his statistical performance was exemplary.
The comp which makes most sense to me right now is Paul Maholm. Oberholtzer should do a nice job eating up innings and should usually give the team a chance to win, but obviously the upside here isn’t huge.
Wade is on record as thinking he can be a middle rotation starter. Obviously the front office is going to spin things toward the optimistic, but that says to me that his most likely outcome is a number four starter, and the Astros’ scouts at least think he has a chance to be a middle rotation type.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I probably am underrating him some. Looking at his stuff and the general consensus on him among the national prospecters, I probably did give a more pessimistic view of his ceiling. I still think he’s got a chance to be a major leaguer and soon, but he just doesn’t the upside to get too excited.
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson
by David Coleman on Aug 5, 2011 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
I think Paul Clemens was the better piece IMO. As Orem said, his delivery is good, but I have a few more concerns about his body type than most. I think he’s tapped out projection wise and what you see is what you get. His command is already good and all he can do is improve that and he might be able to consistently hit the upper end of FB range more, but not by much. I think he’ll be a No. 4 at best. I can see a chance at No. 3 but his chances IMO are too slim to consider.
Oh, I agree he doesn't have physical projection left
Probably the greatest hope for him to reach a middle rotation ceiling is in improvement with the consistency of his off-speed pitches. From a variety of reports I gather that he flashes above average on all of them but they more commonly are just average. Keep in mind that Oberholtzer is just 21, and most 21 year-old pitchers aren’t all that polished with their offspeed stuff yet.
I think he will probably be a number four and he is very likely to reach that outcome, and I think there’s an okay chance that he could mature into a number three as he continues to refine his consistency.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
The most bothersome point to me is that he is only a moderate GB pitcher at A+ and AA (49% and 42%). His low HR/9 would appear more sustainable if he was a pitcher like Maholm with a strong groundball tendency (career GB rate of 52%). His HR/flyball rate at AA is 3%, which is something that isn’t sustainable, particularly as the player moves up the ladder to AAA and MLB. His x-FIP in the minors will be much higher than his FIP. So, unless he can improve more in AAA, I can see the bottom of the rotation projection.
I am not bothered by the “bad body” issue. The studies I have seen in the past indicate that heavy body shapes are not a problem for pitching performance. In fact, heavy bodies are correlated with better pitching performance. The David Wells and C.C. Sabbathia shapes can work.
by clack on Aug 5, 2011 8:33 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Correlation between groundball rates and pitching success
I’ve migrated into valuing GB rates less highly of late… simply because as I survey pitching boards sorted by GB%, I don’t see that high of a correlation between generating groundballs and having success. I think it’s probably more important if you play in a hitter’s park like Coor’s Field, but as we all know, MMP is pretty neutral.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
In the case of this pitcher, it’s fairly important to the evaluation because his minor league production has been supported by such low HR rates. It means you may not be able to take his good results in the minor leagues at face value.
by clack on Aug 5, 2011 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
There is actually a lot more fluctuation between different pitchers’ career HR/FB rates than there is fluctuation in BABIP. That said, I don’t think anyone is expecting Oberholtzer to wind up with a low 3s ERA in the majors, whether scouts or sabermetricians.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
To give you an example of what I mean, I looked at all pitchers from the 00s and sorted by HR/FB rate (minimum 600 IP, or roughly a three full season sample size). The highest was Brett Myers at 15.5%. The lowest was Francisco Cordero at 5.9% (the lowest starting pitcher was Matt Cain at 6.9%). That’s a huge amount of variability, more than most stats in fact.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Yes…that’s the point of x-FIP. HR/fly ball rate is assumed to fluctuate mostly based on luck, and pitchers are expected to regress to the league mean. And, that’s why Oberholzer’s very low HR/flyball rate (never higher than 4% in his minor league career) is a red flag for evaluating him.
by clack on Aug 5, 2011 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, I think you're missing my point
There is a huge amount of variation between the career HR/FB rates of different pitchers even in very, very large sample sizes in excess of three full seasons of data. I’m basically saying that I don’t buy the premise that pitchers don’t have control over it, when there is almost as great a range of large sample size outcomes as stats like BB rate.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
All else equal, a high groundball rate is beneficial. But you would have to control for K and BB rate, which are more important factors. That is to say that a pitcher who succeeds only with a high groundball rate (Chris Sampson, for instance) is likely to be mediocre. However, the pitchers who can post good K and BB rates and a good groundball rate are likely to be better than flyball pitchers with good K and BB rates.
by clack on Aug 5, 2011 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, I agree that statistical groundball rate is at least somewhat beneficial. I just think it’s pretty far down on the list of significance, personally, behind scouting reports, K-rate, BB rate, etc etc. I think scouting reports are especially important for pitchers.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
As an added point, I do think a good GB rate is valuable in MMP. MMP is neutral for runs, but has always been above average in HRs. The 2011 park factor for MMP HRs, for instance, is 1.239, 7th highest in the majors. The HR park factor varies quite a bit from year to year, but it always above average for MMP. I think GB rate is particularly important for LHPs in MMP, given the short LF.
by clack on Aug 5, 2011 11:12 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think this is way to negative on this guy. By far the most negative article I’ve read on this guy. Plenty of good pitchers don’t have “good bodies.” And Oberholtzer has posted decent k rates until this year, his first in AA.
I wouldn’t totally dismiss him because of his lowered k-rate of 6.6 this year. If you look at minor league stats of current mid-rotation type guys who are not strike out pitchers, a lot of them have low strike out years. Wandy Rodriguez, another unprojectable lefty with a flat fastball has done ok. He had a k-rate of under 6 one year in the minors. I think people are underestimating this guy because of his body-type.
Also you go with Mayo’s 87-93, which makes him more comparable to Keuchel. But I have read it is more like 89-92, which makes him a totally different type of prospect.
Wandy has a plus-plus curve ball
Oberholtzer doesn’t have any plus secondary pitches. To be fair, I’m not sure whether Wandy’s curveball was a plus when he was in the minors.
That said, I agree this was a bit on the negative side.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I think Wandy had a great curveball in the minors. In 2005, the astros played the Express in an exhibition and Wandy no hit his future team in something like 6 or 7 innings. After the game, Garner raved about Wandy’s curveball. He may have improved it since then, though. I think the key to Wandy’s improvement from his early ML days, compared to 2008 and later is improved command of his FB.
by clack on Aug 5, 2011 12:29 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, I remember Nolan Ryan in the booth during Wandy’s first game saying he had one of the best curveballs he had ever seen. I was just making the point that a low k rate in the minors doesn’t necessarily mean you can’t pitch in the big leagues. Look at Gavin Floyd, Jeff Karsens, Jair Jurrjens, ha ha Tom Glavine. I’m sure the list goes on and on. I might be getting lucky with the guys I am looking at, but almost every pitcher that isn’t known as a strikeout pitcher has a k rate of about 7 – 7.5 in the minors.
I couldn’t care less about his body type or if that plays into his projection. Was just mentioning it in the summary because it’s out there. I’d also be more agreeable about the one-year dip in K rate if he had posted higher numbers in the past, but even his better seasons don’t show great K rates. He’s just not the kind of pitcher who misses a ton of bats, which is fine.
I also think he has a chance to sit at the higher velocities you mentioned, but wanted to make a point about how much velocity mattered for a player like him.
I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson
by David Coleman on Aug 5, 2011 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I reread your article and I think it’s pretty fair. I think his ceiling could be a little higher, like maybe a good number 3. I think a guy who is a pretty safe bet to be a number 4, who has a chance to be a number 3 isn’t a bad thing.
As far as the strikeout rate, if he improves it to his career rate of 7.5 per 9 with his career rate of 2 BB per 9, that isn’t bad. He’s certainly not a strikeout pitcher, but other pitchers have found nice success in the big leagues with a k rate of 7.5 in the minors.
Usually, strikeout rates decline when a prospect hits the majors. There are exceptions, like Bud Norris, who has almost the same K-rate as his minor league numbers. But generally speaking, you would expect a pitcher’s strikeout rate to drop, especially if he doesn’t have great stuff. At the moment I am thinking Oberholtzer could maybe strikeout out around 6 batters per nine innings, and walk about three, in the majors. That’s not bad and he could be somewhere around that no. 3-4 projection if he manages it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
What the SHUCK?!
JB Shuck called up by Astros to replace Luis Durango.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
wow, I guess I haven't looked at his stats in a while.
He’s had a pretty awesome last 100 at bats. Hopefully he can keep it up!
Oberholtzer
I like Paul Clemens better from the MB trade, but Oberholtzer looks intriguing mainly because he is a lefty. I almost wish the we still had a couple crafty veterans that could take Obe under his wings. An Andy Petitte type guy would be a great tutor for our crafty young lefties like Obe and Keuchel. Wandy Rodriguez doesn’t strike me as take a youngster under his wings type of guy.
by conroestro on Aug 5, 2011 10:49 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
off topic. just thought id say this
I dont think calling shuck up is a job saving move by wade, but m definately not scocked if it is.
The reason why(off top my head) is that it seems like hes developed enough and not rushed, he had hit over .400 his past 19 gms i think. I jist think its his time i guess, he hopefully succeeds!
If i were Arnold Rothstein id pay Ryan Braun all the money he
wants to stop going on homer streaks against the poor Astros....
am i the only one?
by ccislanders on Aug 5, 2011 11:18 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I like him
I don’t think he will be a #2 guy or anything. But how many times have we heard the phrase “finesse lefty”?
His velocity doesn’t really bother me (tom glavine), I really like that he has a solid foundation for all his pitchers right now. Meaning, he can hone and improve.
Keep in mind this kid is still pretty young, and we know that these types of lefty’s mature (get good) later than most others.
I think he can definitely be a helpful starting pitcher in 2 years.
Im less than satisfied
Clemens was my favorite prospect from the Bourn trade but Obie was supposed to be a steal. From the quotes about his flat fastball and getting hit around by a poor team, I’m less than excited about this guy.
by Its Gonna Happen on Aug 5, 2011 2:30 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Scouting the Sally only saw him one time
I wouldn’t read too much into it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
You can say what you want about his "stuff"
…But he has gotten results at every level so far, and imo, that is more important.
Level/FIP
R (2.80)
R (2.08)
A (2.90)
A+ (2.69)
AA (3.36)
I don’t know who was in the lineup for the Lookouts when Scouting the Sally saw him, but the Lookouts as a team rank 3rd in the Southern League in OPS and right in the middle of the pack or better in almost every offensive category. So I wouldn’t call them a poor team. Also, in the only game Oberholtzer pitched against the Lookouts in Chattanooga, he gave up 5 runs on 5 hits in 5 innings while striking out 5. It really wasn’t that big of a disaster.
http://brianmctaggart.mlblogs.com/2011/08/05/springer-enjoys-houston-visit/
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
I have a question
All these experts say he could be a backend starter by next year, what if we kept him in the minors another year or 2 could he develop his piches a little more instead of projecting him in the 2012 rotation?
Artificial Intelligence is no match for Natural Stupidity
not saying
itll make him an ace but more of a solid backend starter
Artificial Intelligence is no match for Natural Stupidity
He doesn't have a lot of projection
We’re not talking about a guy who struggles with his command, or has a projectable body to add velocity as he gets older. The most that could really benefit from him staying in the minors is his repertoire of secondary pitches. And right now they are basically major league pitches. What development they can do, can probably happen while he’s pitching in the majors.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Crawfish Boxes
Related FanShots on The Crawfish Boxes
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
| Sat 05/26 |
WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1) |
3 - 6 loss |
|
Houston Astros
Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
||
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
