Making 2012 Fun
by ntn on Aug 29, 2011 6:42 PM CDT
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PrintI know that the readers here at the Crawfishboxes don't really represent the average Astros 'fan' since the average fan has apparently forgotten that Houston has a major league baseball team. The cast of characters that frequents this website is, as Jabba would say, my kind of scum. When the big league club is drowning in the bilge of the National League like it is now, we like to dream on our young players, pray for the dismissal of ineffective veterans, and look to the future. The average Astros fan thinks that the team should never have traded away Bagwell and Biggio for that Chris Johnson character, and they definitely should have traded for Todd Van Poppel. So my question for you above-average Astros fans is this:
Do you really want to watch this lineup next season?
Schafer CF
Altuve 2B
Martinez LF
Lee/Wallace 1B
Bogusevic RF
Paredes/Downs 3B
Barmes SS
Castro C
I'm not going to try and make any guess at the rotation since it seems like there will be a good chance that Myers and/or Wandy could be dealt, and this lineup assumes that Barmes is resigned. When I look at this lineup, I see a bunch of players that I really like. I like what Schafer, Altuve, Martinez, Bogusevic, Barmes, Paredes, Downs, and Castro all bring to the team, but I really don't feel too good about them keeping me enthralled throughout the season as a unit.
I have a hard time believing that this lineup will score enough runs to make things interesting. Now, I know that next year is a growing year and even though Altuve, Martinez, Bogusevic, and Paredes are doing pretty well at the moment they are expected to have some growing pains over the course of the next 2 years, so it is unrealistic and unfair to ask them to compete for a playoff spot so soon. But will they score enough runs to keep games close? What's the best-case scenario for power production from these guys? (Ok, so I have more than one question for you.)
One thing I do see when I look at this team is a solid defensive club, which should go well with our young and talented pitchers that are starting to pop up from recent trades. I know it's a small sample size, but just about all of these guys have positive UZRs. In fact Altuve and Schafer are the only starters that are slightly negative and both have good reputations. Even though Pence and Bourn were no slouches with the glove, replacing Lee in left, Johnson at 3B, Kepp at 2B with Bogusevic, Paredes, and Altuve should improve the defense despite losing Bourn and Pence. Not to mention that Castro and Q will be better than Corporan and Q.
I see a very frustrating offensive year ahead of us for 2012. Am I the only one? Is there anyway to remedy the ailing power production? The only place I can see serious offensive upgrades on the free agent market are at first and short, but those upgrades would require large, and for lack of a better word, stupid contracts. What solutions can you guys come up with? How can we compliment this young, fast, solid defensive team that has offensive upside to make 2012 a little more fun for us and the average Astros' fan?
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I like it
I mean, I like the fanpost, not the lineup. I hope Barmes is resigned because if he isn’t, that’s a spot that Anderson Hernandez or Jonathan Villar Angel Sanchez will fill. Young pitchers need solid defenders behind them to build confidence, and Barmes is about as sure-handed as they come.
Also
I’m embarrassed to admit this, but I am actually enjoying watching Carlos Lee play these days. I love him trying to stretch singles into doubles. I like how he does it even when most (and faster) players wouldn’t try for it. If we were in the race it would piss me off sometimes but not this year. The poor second basemen and shortstops must feel like Indiana Jones at the beginning of Raiders when they see Carlos rolling around first and barreling right at them. They know what he did to Adam Everett and they were teammates! And then there’s his slide where he always ends up in a twisted heap next to the bag. He got a little dinged up because of it yesterday, but I have to give the big man props for hustling recently.
Bogusevic
I just hope that Bogusevic doesn’t end up like Chris Johnson next year, half a season wonder. I am ok with the line-up you posted and I am expecting to lose more games next year.
I like Bogusevic.
What he’s doing this year doesn’t seem as out of line with his minor league career as what Johnson did last year. CJ had a .387 BABIP last year and even though Bogusevic’s is .333 this year and it will probably come down a little, it’s not too much higher than what he did in the minors. Although he did waste a lot of time pitching in the minors. Also he walks more than CJ and strikes out less. So I think Bogusevic has a better chance of holding down a job for a few seasons than CJ, especially when you figure that he’s pretty good defensively and CJ is pretty bad. I’m glad that the stars seem to be aligning just right for Bogusevic to get a chance to hold down RF and show he belongs in MLB at least until some of our higher ceiling prospects get closer. If it turns out he really was a hitter all along and he does well we can trade him when he starts to get pricey or extend him. I really hope they don’t sign a veteran right fielder this off-season or give too many ABs to J Mike this season. This is probably Bogusevic’s only chance.
Natural Athlete
Sad part is it took the Astros several years to realize a beast of a man like that is a hitter not a pitcher. I mean come on he looks like the most athletic person on the team “Paredes 2nd”.
Another question...
Do any of you know how good fangraphs Fld rating is at evaluating an entire team’s defense? I just started sorting through the team stats split up by month and the Astros were one of the worst teams in every month from April through July but for August they are the best. I suppose sample size applies to team defensive stats as well? I don’t fully understand how UZR is calculated. Is UZR the Fld rating under team stats? I only know what a good UZR and a bad UZR are and that small samples can be misleading. Does anyone have any speculation on why UZR likes Lee this year and dislikes Bourn? Did anyone notice Bourn having some troubles this year? I didn’t get to watch him play all that much this season.
Fangraphs uses UZR as the fielding component, and, yes, one month of results is virtually meaningless, because larger sample sizes are necessary to have confidence in the defensive metrics. However, it is certainly believable that the overall defense of the Astros’ current lineup is much better than earlier in the season. With respect to Bourn, keep in mind that DRS has him at +3, which is more believable than -5 for UZR. I view DRS as more accurate, but that is a personal opinion, and both DRS and UZR are usually close to the same because they use the same underlying data source. When DRS and UZR deviate substantially (as in the case of Bourn), I think that the margin for error is even worse than normal, but I would tend to lean toward DRS.
I think it’s possible that Bourn’s season wasn’t as good as last year. He has had a few errors, and DRS seems to penalize fielders more for errors, plus he has had some inaccurate throws. So DRS may be close to correct for Bourn. I also speculate that Bourn’s advanced fielding result has been hurt by some positioning issues caused by too many blown save situations on the road where he had to play too close to the infield to try and throw out the winning run at the plate. (I have seen balls go over his head in a number of those situations.) That’s why sample size is so important for fielding data.
A simple measure of team defense that is pretty good is defensive efficiency. It’s approximately the percentage of balls in play turned into outs. According to Baseball Prospectus the Astros are currently the worst in the majors. Fail.
Since DER is the inverse of BABIP (see below), and team BABIP is available by month, yes you can derive it by month. But DER will be subject to the same sample size limitations for short periods as the advanced metrics (probably even worse of a problem for DER). Since we know that hitters have varying BABIP capabilities, the opposing teams in a given month will affect the monthly DER. For example, the SF Giants have the lowest BABIP in baseball (.280), and if a team gets to play them a lot in one month, the DER probably will look better than it really is.
Of course, you have team pitching BABIP (not hitting). For example, the Astros’ team pitching BABIP is .303, which means the DER is 1-.303=.697.
If and its a big IF the starting pitching and bullpen are better it is going to be an interesting year
It is fun watching these guys from night to night because as a team we have a lot more tools on the field. I think Schafer can be up there in steals next year he is very aggressive and I think with JD Schafer and Bogey in the OF that defense will be well above avg. This line up is very versatile and you can play small ball with these guys they all can run it will be a fun year. Which I dont think next year can be worse than this year.
As it stands, this offense will be viewed around baseball as likely to be the worst in the majors. And, realistically, a few of the young guys probably will slump badly next year, similar to CJ this year. We can hope that Jason Castro adds a bit of offense from the catcher position. The best hope for improvement might lie with Martinez. I can see the possibility that Martinez breaks through the ceiling that I expected for him. This offense might continue to post an overall decent batting average (like this year’s offense) but that only takes the team so far if power is non-existent. And if Barmes were to be replaced with, say, Anderson Hernandez, the lineup would be viewed as even worse since Anderson probably is no better than Sanchez. Perhaps a Wallace/Lee platoon might provide some marginal improvement on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see CJ return and get some playing time if Paredes struggles.
Last night's lineup, and the lineup you posted above really excite me.
Agree with clack, the offense will still project to be pretty bad.
Schafer may be due for some progression, as his poor performance in the bigs thus far may be the result of some bad luck. I can see him getting his average up to .260 and being a poor man’s Bourn. His defense should be above average. If he tanks, I’d like to see Shuck as the 5th OF. Shuck’s CF defense would be below average, but for a CF, his on-base skill would be average to plus, and his lack of power wouldn’t be such a sore spot.
Altuve may be due for some slight regression once pitchers figure him out, but overall I think we can count on him for a perennial .280 BA, .730 OPS, 20 SB, 10 HR line, which is solid considering his defense.
Martinez has shown some improved power, so a .290 BA, .800 OPS, 20 HR season may not be unrealistic. While that’s still not typical 3 hole hitter #‘s, and it’s a lot to expect from a rookie, I think Martinez will justify his lineup spot. His defense will be average to slightly below average.
Lee will be in a contract year and I think may be due for some progression. I can see a .280 BA, .850 OPS, 25 HR year. His defense will be average at 1B.
Bogusevic is a wild card. If he can keep up what he’s done recently, he’ll be a solid RF and 5 hole hitter. Yes, he’s been the beneficiary of some luck, but he also may be just now coming into his own as a hitter. I can see .270, .750 OPS, 15 HR with above average RF defense next year from Bogie. If he does struggle, Bourgeois provides a fairly solid insurance policy as a 4th OF with plus defense and speed.
A combo of Paredes and Downs should be more than adequate at 3B. Paredes is due for some regression, but he’s young enough for his development to match his BABIP regression and for his defense to become above average. I see him as a .260, 30 SB, 15HR guy, which, if his defense becomes above average (and I think it will), makes him a very good 3B hitting in the 6 hole.
SS and C are huge questions for next year. Castro will be coming off of a major injury and didn’t exactly light up the plate in his previous big league audition. The other MLB-ready catchers on in the organization are defense first guys with weak bats. I’d like to see a veteran backup catcher with some offensive prowess brought in; I’ve mostly been dreaming of signing Ryan Doumit to a short term FA deal. This probably won’t happen, and the team will probably go with a Castro/Corporan tandem. While Castro could end up as a .280, 10 HR guy, it’s impossible to know what to expect from him in the short term. SS is also a complete unknown. It’s possible (maybe even likely) that Barmes is re-signed, which I would be comfortable with, since he provides plus defense and at least some offense and won’t break the bank, not to mention that there isn’t a SS prospect in Houston’s system right now who is exactly putting up any performance that demands a big league job. I’ve soured on Angel Sanchez; he’s a great guy to have in AAA, but doesn’t belong on a big league roster. I’d like to see a Barmes/Brandon Wikoff combo. I think they would complement each other well and they’d be relatively cheap.
Yes, the offense next season will be below average. But the upside is there. RF, C, and SS will be the keys. Defensively, especially if Barmes is resigned, there shouldn’t be any glaring weaknesses. Paredes’ defensive development will be key. Of course, injuries can always derail everything.
The overall quality of the team and subsequent W/L record depends heavily on what happens with Wandy and Myers in the offseason. A Wandy-Norris-Myers-Lyles-Happ rotation projects for a helluva lot more wins than a Norris-Lyles-Happ-Sosa-Harrell rotation. If Wandy and Myers are retained for at least the 1st half, I think the team will be much improved.
The bullpen should return intact, and given the age of the group, should be improved. There’s no true closer in the bunch, as Melancon appears to be topped out as a setup man. But between him, Lopez, Carpenter, F Rod, Wright, Escalona, and Aneury, there should be enough there to improve over this year’s performance. And that’s without Brandon Lyon contributing, which I’m not counting on.
While I’m not planning on Houston being above .500 next season, I’d be shocked if they didn’t win more games than they will this year. It’s almost hard to lose 100+ games.
by Snake Diggity on Aug 30, 2011 10:38 AM CDT up reply actions
culture of competition
I hope that we can keep a healthy culture of competition within the organization – no one is guaranteed time (including our remaining couple of big contract guys). Even AA guys are given a fair shot. Patience with young players – yes, but communicate that opportunities are given to those who earn them.
I think it will be a fun year, and I agree that we have some likeable players even if the overall talent isn’t there yet.
by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 30, 2011 11:34 AM CDT reply actions
The only thing I would look forward to next year ...
… at this point is 1) an All-Star campaign by JD 2) solid and consistent performance by Wallace 3) continued growth from Paredes and 4) more great work from Altuve. I am not going to relish the thought of Bogey, Schafer, Lee & Barmes in the lineup every day, however. But I do appreciate Barmes defense. We can’t expect too much out of Castro seeing he hasn’t ever really had a chance to play at the major leagues.
The all-star game
is a good point. Normally I don’t care about it but it’s possible that one of our unknown young players could get his first taste of national attention. It will be fun to watch either JD or Altuve…watch, it will be Lee.
I think it will be a pitcher
It is just going to be hard to put one of our hitters on the all-star team IMO. Unless someone goes crazy I think it will be an arm to make the team. If Norris progresses he could produce a good next year and Wandy could still be on the team
Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were the last of a dying breed of players who would live and die for their team
Paredes at SS
Why not? The guy has great range at 3b, he routinely makes plays in front of Barmes (who I like as well, but if he doesn’t resign, what then?). extremely quick on the basepaths, which is normally found in a SS, not necessarily a 3b. That way you can start Downs at 3b, who in my mind has been the biggest surprise of the entire season.
So you want to move Paredes once again? The kid was jsut moved to 3rd a couple of months ago.
He needs to allowed to settle in at one position and given the time to see if can play 3rd for long term. His glove work at 3rd has improved tremendously at 3rd in the short amount of time that he has been playing exclusively at 3rd. If and when his bat is able to play up to that position you are looking at a rd baseman who is possibly a plus defender at a premium postion, with a plus arm, with good range, and above avg. speed on the basepaths as a runner. That would make him a very unique player at a premium position. He hasn’t even played a half season at 3rd yet and you talking about moving him. His is already better at 3rd than Downs or CJ imo. That alone warrants him staying at 3rd.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Paredes would be playing shortstop in the minors if the Yankees and Astros thought he could handle the position well. I would rather have a plus defensive third baseman than a sub-par defensive shortstop—which is what Paredes would likely be. Defense is the most important part of the shortstop position, and I don’t think you aim for below average defense at the position.
Any worse?
I don’t think the offense can be any worse with that lineup than it has been the last couple of years. I think the pitching staff is of more concern.
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| Fri 05/25 |
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Cincinnati
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St. Louis
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Houston
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