Top 10 Highest Ceilings
by bone31crusher on Aug 28, 2011 9:02 PM CDT
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PrintThis list is a little different than most, as it will evaluate a prospect's ceiling, regardless of his production.
Let me know what you think:
1. Domingo Santana - Definitely our most intriguing prospect. He's had a good year at low-A ball, hitting around .276 with 11 HRs. If he can fix his K/BB ratio, he's got a chance to fully pan out, and if he does, he'll be a superstar. Might have the most raw power in all of the minors outside of Bryce Harper, IMO. Still, he's a risky prospect. ETA: 2014
2.Ariel Ovando - Ovando has had a decent season at Greeneville. Like Santana, he's got incredible raw power. Even though he's hitting .245 or so with 2 HRs, he's just 17. No cause for concern, at all. If he pans out, he'll also be a superstar. Another low floor guy, though. ETA: 2015
3. Jonathan Singleton - Has very good power potential. I don't think it's at Ryan Howard's potential, like some people are suggesting, but I think 35 HRs per season is more realistic. He's had a great year at high-A ball, at just 19. His K/BB ratio has dropped since joining Lancaster, but he's hitting HRs, and he's hitting for a high average. If he has another year like this at Corpus Christi, calling him a can't-miss prospect wouldn't be too far-fetched. ETA: 2013
4. George Springer - I put him over Cosart because he's such a phenomenal athlete with really good power potential. He had a very good K/BB ratio at UCONN this year, and he also hit for good power and average. He is your typical 5-tool player. Love his upside. ETA: 2013
5. Jarred Cosart - Cosart has pitched very well for Corpus Christi ever since he was promoted upon being traded to us. He did have one disastrous start, but his other 3 have been damn near perfect. Strikeout numbers aren't there yet, but he's forcing a lot of ground balls. Could be our future ace if all goes well for him. ETA: Mid-2012
6. Delino DeShields Jr. - DeShields has had an up and down year at Lexington, but he's only 18. If he pans out, he'll be a dynamic leadoff hitter, with 50+ SB potential, and he has enough raw power to crack 15 HRs. ETA: 2014
7. Jonathan Villar - Villar has had a pretty poor season at double-A, but he's only 20, so I'll give him a break, considering how raw he is. He's got incredible defensive talent, with a plus arm and plus range. His athleticism allows him to make incredible plays, but his fundamentals need work. Can definitely see him being a gold glove SS if he really improves his fundamentals. Outside of his defense, he's got good power potential. His K/BB rate was alarmingly high early on, but he's bounced back the second half of the season, walking a lot more and not striking out quite as much. At this point, he's our SS of the future. ETA: 2013
8. Mike Foltynewicz - Folty has had a rough year at Lexington, but it shouldn't be too concerning, especially when you look at a guy like Tanner Bushue, who is still getting lit up at Lexington, in his second (*facepalm*) year there. He's got a plus fastball and some good secondary stuff, but he still has ways to go. ETA: 2014
9. Adrian Houser - I really like this guy. Like every other pitcher on this list, he's got a plus fastball, but his secondary stuff isn't developed yet, which is no surprise for a guy his age. Just threw 5 scoreless innings for Greeneville, while striking out 4 and walking 2. ETA: Mid-2014
10. Telvin Nash - He has a lot of raw power, like the first few guys do. He does walk at a fairly high rate, but his strikeout rate is disturbingly high. He's still consistently hitting around .270, and he continues to hit HRs at a high rate, but if he doesn't work on his strikeouts, I don't see him in our future plans. ETA: Mid-2013
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Fun concept...need to reel in expectations for Santana I think
I can’t agree with “most power in the minors after Bryce Harper” when Santana has only slugged .417 to date during his career. To compare, Harper is slugging .501. If you want to throw out his AA stats, where he’s undoubtedly one of the youngest (if not the youngest) player in his league, he was slugging .554 in the Sally league.
Santana is nowhere near that class of power. Other than that though, I have no beef with your rankings. I do like Ovando’s upside a lot.
.....
Nowhere near that class of power? I strongly disagree.
His current numbers wouldn’t suggest he’s got insane power, but he does. It’s raw power, though.
Ask any scout on twitter, and they’ll tell you he’s got incredible raw power.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Aug 28, 2011 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions
This is just not true
Scouts like Santana’s power potential, yes, but you are exaggerating how much they like it, quite a bit. I haven’t seen anyone except maybe one or two biased Phillies fans give him the kind of raw power you’re talking about. I’ve mostly seen 60 grades, which is plus power, but not 35+ HR power.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I agree that Santana doesn't have that kind of power
But not because of his numbers. More because most scouting reports I’ve seen give him 60, 65 power… Harper has true 80 power and he’s certainly not the only prospect in the minors with 70+. Ovando may in fact have more power potential than Santana.
I disagree with putting those two plus Singleton above Springer. Springer’s bat has about the same potential as Santana or Ovando, but he could stick in CF, while those two will be limited to RF.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Badass list
I’d still take 2 and 4 over #1. Santana’s an awesome prospect, but Springer and Ovando’s 5 tool potential makes them higher upside prospects IMO. I like Santana’s power potential, but he’s not #2 to Harper. I’m not sure his power potential is even the best in our system (Singleton would have something to say about that)
Go over to Philly's blog and ask them about Santana.
They said to me his ceiling was as high as anyone’s in the minors, excluding Harper. Don’t think you quite understand his power potential. He could be a 40+ HR guy. I love Singleton, but his power potential is not on Santana’s level.
As for the 5-tool element, Santana is nearly one. He’s got good speed, and a cannon of an arm in right field. His average just may not be as high as say Springer or Singleton, but his power numbers could be better.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Aug 28, 2011 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
The problem with your reply...
…is this line:
Go over to Philly’s blog and ask them about Santana..
If you use questionable sources, you’re going to get questionable information. I hope he does hit 40 HR someday, but I think it’s far more likely that he turns out to be a 200-strikeout guy than a 35+ HR player.
Interesting
Did you take into account positional value at all? I would rank Villar and Springer a bit higher because if they turn out to be badass hitters and plus defenders at a premium position their value would be really high.
Definitely excited about Santana so far.
My wild card might be Jose Cisnero. His K rate in A+ is just ridiculous. If he ever figures it out. . .
My list would start with Villar and Paredes in some order.
While they are extremely unlikely to reach their ceilings, they are on another level when it comes to athleticism and tools across the board. It’s hard not to get your hopes up for these guys to realize that potential, but it setting yourself up for a letdown.
As far as Nash, a guy with one tool doesn’t have a very high ceiling IMO. The following players would all have higher ceilings than Telvin:
Teoscar Hernandez
Darwin Rivera
Juan Santana
Evan Grills
Michael Feliz
Javares Reynolds
Jordan Scott
Luis Ordosgoitti
Chris Lee
Brandon Meredith
Kyle Hallock
Austin Wates
Jose Cisnero
Paul Clemens
Brett Oberholtzer
Jason Stoffel
I’ll give you some of those names, but I disagree that Stoffel, Oberholtzer, Rivera, Grills, and others, especially Jordan Scott, have a higher ceiling than Nash. Nash has Big Hurt potential.
by Brad E on Aug 29, 2011 10:12 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Nash could put up Jason Giambi numbers if he pans out. Jordan Scott’s ceiling is Matt Murton.
by Brad E on Aug 29, 2011 10:15 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Love the Matt Murton comp
Scott is a guy who is easy to cheer for but difficult to get too excited about.
by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 29, 2011 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Funny thing about Matt Murton
is he had phenomenal numbers in the minors, when he played:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=murton001mat
I don’t know if he had injury problems or was just fast tracked to the big leagues, but he raked in the minors and looked like the first round talent he was drafted as.
I don’t know if he got hurt during 2007, but he was on track to be a very good outfielder with a long career and then his career fell off a cliff.
Giambi and Frank Thomas are two of the worst comparisons I have ever heard for a player like Telvin Nash.
Giambi and Thomas both had career OBP numbers north of .400 in the minors and majors. Thomas walked more than he struck out in both the minors and majors. Giambi had a 1:1 ratio in both as well. In his best season thus far in the minors, Nash has a 3:1 K:BB ratio. Comparing Nash to those two is like comparing Jordan Schaefer to Ken Griffey Jr. because they play the same position.
Nash’s current ceiling is comparable to Russell Branyan, Glenallen Hill, Preston Wilson, etc…
Difference between Nash and guys like Branyan is Nash can hit for a decent average.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Aug 29, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Not with that strikeout rate, he can't.
Maybe if the stars align he can become a Ryan Howard type player, who strikes out a lot but hits for plus-plus power. But I think Raidas is probably right that his realistic ceiling is closer to a Branyan type.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Branyan's career average is .233.......
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Aug 29, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, players tend to have lower batting averages in the majors than they did in the minors
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Didn't realize the .262 was in the minors.
Dumb mistake.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
by bone31crusher on Aug 29, 2011 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions
Good point. For some reason, I thought Nash had a high walk rate too. That’s why I chose those two guys.
by Brad E on Aug 29, 2011 5:07 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Speaking of Springer, he homered today.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
Oh man
Getting way ahead of yourself here. I know we are talking about upside only, but you are dreaming a bit to big on Santana and Ovando, even though I like them a lot (I like Ovando more, but they are semi close).
Springer, Cosart, and Singleton are the real definitions of upside though. They are pure upside players. Just because there is a reason to think they will actually get there, doesn’t mean you should downgrade them behind totally raw players.
I don’t have a major problem with any other players listed, but I’d think Armstrong would have to get some serious consideration, and would definitely make my list. He’s a guy who will be really valuable if he stays healthy and only makes it as a reliever. If he can advance as a starter, he’ll have major upside.
Either way, this system is now loaded with almost exclusively upside players. It is a really fun time to be an Astros fan that cares about the minors. But you just don’t want to get ahead of yourself too much, especially with really REALLY raw players.
by auclairkeithbc on Aug 31, 2011 11:51 AM CDT reply actions
I agree with your reasoning that Singleton shouldn’t be compared to Howard. I see Singleton as more of a Carlos Delgado type. Singleton hits for power, average and has great strike zone discipline, just like Delgado had. Howard does not have good strike zone discipline.
I wouldn’t put Santana #1 on that list, especially not over Singleton and Springer. IMO, Singleton IS a can’t miss prospect. He just looks like the real deal to me and our 1B for the next 10+ years once he is brought up. If it weren’t for Cosart’s injury history, I’d put him higher but to be honest, his injuries are the only thing that scare me. If he stays healthy, he will be a beast.
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