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My Astros Top 10 Prospects List

Coming into the season, the Astros were talking about a much improved farm system. Bolstered by the trades of Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt, the Astros had added a pair of speedy infielders in Jimmy Paredes and Jonathan Villar, and had signed lanky outfielder Ariel Ovando to a club-record signing bonus. Now, after trading Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Jeff Keppinger, the Astros have added even more depth and impact prospect talent and figure to have gone from a bottom five farm system to a team comfortably in the top 20. 

Read on to hear my take on who are the top 10 prospects in the organization.

Star-divide

  1. Jonathan Singleton, 1B: The highest upside bat in the minors, Singleton should hit for a lot of power and average and could develop into a franchise cornerstone. It's dangerous to rank players still in High-A as a system's top prospect, but he looks like the real deal.
  2. Jarred Cosart, RHP: With an electric fastball and impressive off-speed stuff, Cosart has all the makings of a top of the rotation starter. However, because of a few mechanical issues, he could be a major injury risk and that's what keeps him from being on top of this list.
  3. George Springer, CF/OF: Another extremely high upside bat, Springer has the potential to be a true five-tool outfielder. He's extremely athletic, hits for power, but is still a bit raw. Though he's a tremendous prospect, people expecting him to fly through the minors need to be ready for some growing pains as he is not as polished as the average top college prospect.
  4. Paul Clemens, RHP: Some will say that this ranking is a bit aggressive, but Clemens has a chance to be a very, very good major league pitcher. Pairing a strong sinker with a nice curveball and slider, Clemens has begun to blossom as a pitcher this year in his promotion to AA. If he can keep this up, he could become a #2 starter on a good team, but his floor is as a late-inning reliever.
  5. Jonathan Villar, SS: A slick fielding shortstop who has begun to hit for some power this year, Villar has the tools to become a solid MLB shortstop. This ranking is mostly based on upside as he still needs to show an ability to consistently hit for average, but if he figures it out, he could be a good asset for years to come at a premium position.
  6. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP: The top pitching prospect in the Astros' system before the mid-season trades, Foltynewicz has been a bit overshadowed by the influx of talent in recent months. Despite a rough start to the season, Folty has managed a fairly solid second half of the year. Though he appears headed to a repeat of Lexington next year, the future is still bright for Foltynewicz. 
  7. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP: Obertholzer appears to be a better version of another pitcher in the Astros system, Dallas Keuchel. Lacking dominant velocity on his fastball but having two other solid off-speed offerings, Oberholtzer is a solid starting pitching prospect with a fairly high floor. If he has a solid first half in AAA next year, Obie could find himself in a major league rotation by year's end. 
  8. Domingo Santana, OF: While Cosart and Singleton have the hype from the Hunter Pence deal, Santana is another player the Phillies gave up that could really make them regret making this deal. At barely 19 years old, Santana is already hitting for power and profiles as a very good outfielder going forward. Though he is 3-5 years away from the majors, Santana could become an All-Star if things go well. 
  9. Ariel Ovando, OF: At just 17, Ariel Ovando is among the youngest players in the entire minor leagues and is still holding his own. The production is still a bit underwhelming, but Ovando's incredible athletic profile and youth make him a top 10 prospect. 
  10. Delino Deshields Jr., 2B/OF: Much like Ovando, Deshields' ranking is based mostly on a combination of extreme upside and youth. While the merits of sending Deshields to full-season ball in his age-18 season are debatable, he has shown enough improvement over the second half of the year to stay on this list. Where he ends up next year will be interesting as the Astros have been very aggressive over the last few years in promoting prospects.

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I like it

Amazing to see how far Ovando has fallen in the last year. I think it’s a combination of our hype and an infusion of talent, but it’s amazing to think some had him as the top prospect in our system a year ago.

by carlosming on Aug 27, 2011 1:47 PM CDT reply actions  

Looks decent. Nice writeup

Seems a little aggressive on Clemens, Oberholtzer in terms of ranking, but not bad. Pretty much the right guys on here, or at very least all guys strongly in the conversation for the top 10. I can see the argument for Wates, Houser, maybe even Armstrong slipping into the back end instead of some of these guys, but a lot of it is interchangeable/down to personal point of view.

Does bring up something interesting. The farm system has moved from a mix of high floor guys (Martinez, Altuve, Lyles) and high upside tools guys (Folty, DeShields, Ovando) to an overall deeper group, but one much more focused on upside. The only guy in the top 10 on your list, or I suspect most people’s lists, who you could characterize as being high floor/low ceiling, is Brett Oberholtzer.

On the one hand this means a high percentage of these guys will be busts, on the flip side there’s hope we could finally find a couple of impact players out of this group.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 27, 2011 2:51 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks for the feedback

Wates would have been my last one off and Armstrong would’ve been second. Houser probably would’ve been third.

I’m just happiest that there is a lot of competition for the top 10 spots. At the beginning of 2009, a newly moved Brian Bogusevic, who had had 173 at bats since being converted to a position player, was our 4th best prospect.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 27, 2011 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions  

To expand on what I was saying

Wates is a player that looks to be a very good, high average doubles hitter, but if he can’t stick in center, he’s going to struggle to profile well at a corner position. To be honest, I haven’t seen him enough to really grade his defense, but I think the odds are good that he’s not a CF long term. Depending on how you view upside vs. floor, you could definitely make the case to put him above a number of players on the list, but I chose not to put him on there.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 27, 2011 3:22 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think Wates can be a center fielder

He certainly has the tools for it, the question is just whether his routerunning will be up to par.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 27, 2011 11:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think you’re right, judging by video of him, he is plenty fast enough and athletic enough, it’s going to come down on whether or not he can take good routes. I don’t think he will have problems picking up things as he progresses. I’m pretty high on Wates, and it’s because I think he’ll stick in CF.

by Brad E on Aug 28, 2011 12:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good top ten

Other than these guys, Houser makes the best case for consideration, in my book.

I’m still on the fence about Wates – I hope to be pleasantly surprised.

by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 27, 2011 3:30 PM CDT reply actions  

My biggest fear with Houser is a lack of solid secondary stuff

He’s getting by with really 2 pitches right now, though the changeup is apparently coming along. If he can have three solid pitches, he looks like a solid starter, but if not he could be ticketed for the pen.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 27, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions  

He's 18 and attended his prom 4 months ago.

He needs some time. If he doesn’t develop a 3rd pitch then he can become a power arm in the bullpen. Anyone that has seen the Astros this year knows power bullpen arms are not overrated.

Good list. Amazing what a year makes. Of course, most top 10 lists last year didn’t even have Altuve or Martinez on them, so guys like Hinze may be another surprise.

by Neil Leininger on Aug 27, 2011 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's fair

I agree with basically everything you said. I just think the negatives associated with his uncertainty push him behind the others on the list.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 27, 2011 7:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

 Astros have a real nice top 15 now.

by Brad E on Aug 27, 2011 7:28 PM CDT reply actions  

this is one of the few lists i completely agree with

with some proving i could see some others making a push for this list in the future. Nash, armstrong, houser, hallock, davidson, wates ( should be in AA).
in

by charliea on Aug 28, 2011 2:03 PM CDT reply actions  

Thanks a lot

I appreciate it. It’s nice to see so many prospects potentially pushing to be in the top 10. The depth in the system is finally coming.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 28, 2011 8:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

and dont forget wallace

theirs something to be said for a slugging catcher

by charliea on Aug 28, 2011 2:04 PM CDT reply actions  

He's struggled a bit in CC, especially with his strikeouts

My biggest fear with him is that he was just an older player dominating A ball pitching in his successful run last year.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 30, 2011 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions  

I like this list,

for the most part.

I think Domingo Santana needs to be higher than both Folty and Obie. Santana is having a much, much better season as a hitter than Folty is as a pitcher, and they’re at the same level. Obie has been solid at Corpus, but his ceiling isn’t that high. I’d say a good #4 is reasonable.

Other than that, I agree with the rest of the list, even with Clemens being #4. He’s still got good upside at age 23, and while he’s more likely to be a #3, he could be a #2.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Aug 28, 2011 9:16 PM CDT reply actions  

Good list

Obie is too high for my tastes. I can understand slotting him there sort of, but when you look at the 3 guys below him, it just looks wrong to me. I think either Houser or Armstrong should be in the top 10, maybe Wates too, instead of Obie. I had Santana #11 on my list, which was done before his small sample size of excellence since the trade, but I think it is certainly fine have him at 8. There is definitely a lot of nitpicking and shuffling that can be done after the top 3, all the way down to maybe 12 or 13.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 31, 2011 12:15 PM CDT reply actions  

We should have a healthy number of B- types after the three B+'s.

As many as 10 I think…with a couple maybe sneaking in as weaker B’s.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 31, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

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