Ed Wade - The Trade Edition

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 11:50 AM CDT

Ed Wade has made a total of 19 trades since becoming General Manager of the Houston Astros in 2007. I decided to look at these trades from a WAR perspective and try to determine how many of these trades Wade ended up winning. Not all of the trades are created equal as some involved including cash, draft pick compensation, and additional trades with an acquired player, which makes some of the trades difficult to measure.

1.) Astros send Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to the Phillies for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary, and Mike Costanzo in November of 2007

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Phillies	Brad Lidge	1 Year	2.2	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.2
Phillies	Eric Bruntlett	2 Years	0.1	-0.9	N/A	N/A	-0.8
*Totals*	*N/A*		*2.3*	*-0.9*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*1.4*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Michael Bourn	3.5 Years	0.2	4.9	4.8	3.3	13.2
Astros	Geoff Geary	2 Years	0.5	-0.4	N/A	N/A	0.1
Astros	Mike Costanzo	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
*Totals*	*N/A*		*0.7*	*4.5*	*4.8*	*3.3*	*13.3*

As far as WAR is concerned this trade was by far Ed Wade’s best as GM of the Astros thus far. The trade centered on Lidge and Bourn, and saw the Astros trade 1 year of Lidge for 5 years of Bourn. In hindsight we can see that the Astros were the clear-cut winners, but after the 08 season the perception was that this trade was lopsided in the Phillies favor. Brad Lidge rebounded from a down season with the Astros, and rode his perfect save streak all the way to a 3 year extension with the Phillies. Bourn meanwhile struggled mightily in his first season with the Astros, and even though he showed glimpses of his future self at times, he was nowhere near the star he eventually turned out to be.

Result: Astros win

2.) Astros send Luke Scott, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, Matt Albers, and Mike Costanzo to the Orioles for Miguel Tejada in December of 2007.

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Orioles	Luke Scott	4 Years +	2.2	1.2	2.7	0	6.1
Orioles	Matt Albers	3 Years	0.3	0.8	0.2	N/A	1.3
Orioles	Troy Patton	2 Years +	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	0.1
Orioles	Dennis Sarfate	2 Years	0.2	0	N/A	N/A	0.2
Orioles	Mike Costanzo	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
*Totals*	*N/A*		*2.7*	2	*2.9*	*0.1*	*7.7*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Miguel Tejada	2 Years	3.4	2.8	N/A	N/A	6.2
*Totals*	*N/A*		*3.4*	*2.8*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*6.2*

Looking at the WAR production of this trade shows that the Orioles received more production out of the package of players that the Astros sent them than the Astros did in 2 years of Miguel Tejada. The only 2 serviceable players so far in this trade for the Orioles were Luke Scott and Matt Albers, and only Luke Scott and Troy Patton are still with the Orioles organization. On the Astros side Tejada is long gone now, but had 2 pretty good seasons with the Astros. Overall this trade was pretty fair for both sides as both teams received something they needed.

Result: Astros lose

3.) Astros send Chad Qualls, Chris Burke, and Juan Gutierrez to the Diamondbacks for Jose Valverde

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Diamondbacks	Chris Burke	1 Year	-0.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	-0.1
Diamondbacks	Chad Qualls	2.5 Years	2.1	1.1	0.1	N/A	3.3
Diamondbacks	Juan Gutierrez	3 Years +	N/A	1.4	-1	0	0.4
*Totals*	*N/A*		2	*2.5*	*-0.9*	0	*3.6*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Jose Valverde	2 Years	0.8	0.6	N/A	N/A	1.4
*Totals*	*N/A*		*0.8*	*0.6*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*1.4*

This is one of those trades that surprised me when I looked at the results. Jose Valverde was pretty solid in his 2 year stint with the Astros, but as good as he was Chad Qualls was better. Even though Chad Qualls outperformed Jose Valverde in terms of WAR those 2 years, I don’t think Qualls would have been able to step into the closer’s role for the Astros and perform as good as Valverde did. Also worth mentioning is that not all trades are created equal, and this is one of them. The Astros offered Valverde arbitration and received 2 compensation draft picks taking the promising Mike Foltynewicz and Mike Kvasnicka, which could add value to the Astros side of the trade if either of these two turn into decent major leaguers.

Result: Astros lose, although they could technically win the trade if Folty and Kvasnicka make it to the majors

4.) Astros send Josh Anderson to the Braves for Oscar Villareal

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Braves	Josh Anderson	1 Year	0.8	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.8
*Totals*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.8*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.8*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Oscar Villareal	0.5 Years	-1.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	-1.1
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*-1.1*

No, Josh Anderson did not do great things for the Atlanta Braves, and yes he did become redundant after the Michael Bourn trade, but the Oscar Villareal trade turned out to be a bust.

Result: Astros lose

5.) Astros send Matt Cusick to the Yankees for Latroy Hawkins

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Yankees	Matt Cusick	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Latroy Hawkins	0.5 Years	0.8	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.8
*Totals*	*N/A*		*0.8*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.8*

These types of trades are where Ed Wade really shines. He has a knack for picking up embattled players and receiving some value out of them. Hawkins who was struggling with the Yankees came to Houston where he was solid for the rest of the season. The Astros then signed him to an extension in the offseason rewarding him for a solid season. Meanwhile Matt Cusick never made it to the majors for the Yankees, and is no longer with their organization.

Result: Astros win

6.) Astros send Chad Reineke to the Padres for Randy Wolf

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Padres	Chad Reineke	0.5 Years	0.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.1
*Totals*	*N/A*		*0.1*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.1*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Randy Wolf	0.5 Years	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
*Totals*	*N/A*		1	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	1

Similarly to the Latroy Hawkins trade the Randy Wolf trade was equally as successful for the Astros. The Astros received some much needed rotation help for the second half of the 08 season, and did so at the expense of Chad Reineke who only pitched briefly for the Padres in 08 without experiencing a whole lot of success.

Result: Astros win

7.) Astros send Drew Sutton to the Reds for Jeff Keppinger

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Reds	Drew Sutton	0.75 Years	N/A	0.1	0.2	N/A	0.3
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*0.1*	*0.2*	*N/A*	*0.3*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Jeff Keppinger	2.5 Years	N/A	0.6	2.1	0.9	3.6
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*0.6*	*2.1*	*0.9*	*3.6*

After filling the super utility role in 09, Keppinger stepped in for Kaz Matsui and was solid for the rest of the season. Drew Sutton played briefly for the Reds in 09-10, and experienced some success, but not enough to measure up to Jeff Keppinger. Adding to the potential value of that trade is the fact that Keppinger was recently traded to the Giants this year for starter Henry Sosa and reliever Jason Stoffel. Sosa has already made his debut with the Astros, and depending on what kind of impact he makes at the major league level depends on how valuable this trade ends up being.

Result: Astros win

8.) Astros send Robert Bono, Luis Bryan, and Rule 5 pick (Jorge Jimenez) to the Marlins for Matt Lindstrom

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Marlins	Robert Bono	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
Marlins	Luis Bryan	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
Marlins	Jorge Jimenez	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Matt Lindstrom	1 Year	N/A	N/A	0.3	N/A	0.3
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.3*	*N/A*	*0.3*

Another marginal trade made by Wade, the Matt Lindstrom trade started out looking very promising until injury and ineffectiveness slowed down Lindstrom. Robert Bono is now 23 years old and at AA for the Marlins, and Luis Bryan is 21 in low A ball, so both could still crack the major leagues but it is unlikely. Lindstrom was traded in the offseason for 2 “prospects” so it is possible that the Astros could still receive some value on this trade, but the chances of either Jonnathan Aristil or Wes Musick making the majors is very slim.

Result: Astros win

9.) Astros send Roy Oswalt and cash to the Phillies for JA Happ, Jonathan Villar, and Anthony Gose. Anthony Gose is then traded to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace.

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Phillies	Roy Oswalt	1 Year +	N/A	N/A	2	1.1	3.1
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	2	*1.1*	*3.1*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	JA Happ	1 Year +	N/A	N/A	0.8	0.1	0.9
Astros	Jonathan Villar	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Astros	Anthony Gose	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.8*	*0.1*	*0.9*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Blue Jays	Anthony Gose	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Brett Wallace	1 Year +	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-0.2
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	0	*-0.2*	*-0.2*

There’s really no way of judging how this trade will turn out, but early returns favor the Phillies. How much value the Astros receive in this trade depends largely on whether or not JA Happ and Brett Wallace can overcome there struggles this year, and go on to being serviceable major league players for a good portion of their service time with the Astros. The value the Phillies receive also depends on whether or not they decide to pick up Roy Oswalt’s option for 2012. The return on this trade seems lower than what you would expect for trading a player of Oswalt’s caliber, but extenuating circumstances did not give Wade any leverage in trading his disgruntled ace. When you take into account the amount of money the Astros sent the Phillies along with the possibility that the Phillies pick up Oswalt’s option, it seems unlikely that the Astros will come out on top in this trade.

Result: Too early to tell, but so far does not look good

10.) Astros send Lance Berkman and cash to the Yankees for Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Yankees	Lance Berkman	0.5 Years	N/A	N/A	0	N/A	0
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	0	*N/A*	0
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Mark Melancon	1 Year +	N/A	N/A	0.3	0.5	0.8
Astros	Jimmy Paredes	0.10 Year +	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.3	0.3
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.3*	*0.8*	*1.1*

Never mind the fact that Berkman returned to form this year, but the Astros traded half a season of Berkman for youngsters Mark Melancon and Jimmy Paredes. Berkman went on to be a replacement level player down the stretch for the Yankees while Melancon has been solid thus far, and Paredes has posted positive value thus far in his brief time in the majors. This trade has the potential to be very lopsided in the Astros favor if Mark Melancon continues to be successful and Jimmy Paredes develops into a solid major leaguer.

Result: Astros win

11.) Astros send Pedro Feliz to the Cardinals for David Carpenter

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Cardinals	Pedro Feliz	0.5 Years	N/A	N/A	-0.5	N/A	-0.5
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*-0.5*	*N/A*	*-0.5*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	David Carpenter	0.5 Years +	N/A	N/A	N/A	0	0
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0	0

The fact that Ed Wade was able to get anything back for Pedro Feliz with the way he played last year was an accomplishment in itself. The fact that he received a reliever with good velocity and decent upside is very impressive. Carpenter was seemingly rushed to the majors this season with the Astros early bullpen struggles, but he has been pretty solid for the most part this year. Already considered a win for the Astros, this trade could become lopsided considering the amount of team control the Astros received, and how serviceable Carpenter can become.

Result: Astros win

12.) Astros send cash to the Reds for Enerio Del Rosario

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Reds	Cash	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
*Totals*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Enerio Del Rosario	0.5 Years +	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-0.2
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	0	*-0.2*	*-0.2*

This was another relatively insignificant trade, but the Astros received another decent looking young arm that has shown a little promise. Even if Enerio Del Rosario turns out to be a bust, the fact that the Astros didn’t give up anything significant makes this trade a low risk type of deal.

Result: Insignificant trade, but I suppose the Astros win

13.) Astros send Felipe Paulino to the Rockies for Clint Barmes

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Rockies	Felipe Paulino	0.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	-0.1	-0.1
*Totals*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*-0.1*	*-0.1*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Clint Barmes	0.5 Years +	N/A	N/A	N/A	2.4	2.4
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*2.4*	*2.4*

Disregard the fact that Paulino seems to have finally put it all together with the Royals this year after being released by the Rockies. Paulino possesses the type of arm that you should never give up on as witnessed with his turnaround with the Royals, but he had seemingly ran out of chances with the Astros organization. Clint Barmes has been solid defensively all season and has been average offensively. Basically, the Astros won this trade with Rockies, good pickup by the Royals.

Result: Astros win

14.) Astros send Matt Lindstrom to the Rockies for Wes Musick and Jonnathan Aristil

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Rockies	Matt Lindstrom	0.5 Years +	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.9	0.9
*Totals*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.9*	*0.9*
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Wes Musick	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
Astros	Jonnathan Aristil	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0

Can you say salary dump. Maybe Musick sees some time in the majors as a loogy, but more than likely neither of these players will see the majors. Wade sold low on Lindstrom, and by doing so lost this trade.

Result: Astros lose

15.) Astros send Albert Cartwright to the Phillies for Sergio Escalona

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Phillies	Albert Cartwright	0 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
*Totals*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Sergio Escalona	0.5 Years +	N/A	N/A	N/A	0.1	0.1
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*0.1*	*0.1*

On the whole this deal seemed to be a pretty insignificant trade, but Escalona has been the most reliable lefty in the pen this year. Add to that the fact that Cartwright did not play any this year in the Phillies system, and score another one for Ed Wade and the Astros.

Result: Astros win

16.) Astros send cash to the Devil Rays for Joe Inglett

Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Devil Rays	Cash (?)	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	0
*Totals*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	0
Team	Player Received	Service Time W/ Team	1st YR WAR 08	2nd YR WAR 09	3rd YR WAR 10	4th YR WAR 11	Total WAR Accumulated
Astros	Joe Inglett	0.15 Years	N/A	N/A	N/A	-0.3	-0.3
*Totals*	*N/A*		*N/A*	*N/A*	*N/A*	*-0.3*	*-0.3*

Insignificant trade that did not provide any positive value to the Astros.

Result: Astros lose

17.) Astros send Jeff Keppinger to the Giants for Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel

This trade was considered to be a disappointment by many after it was made, but Henry Sosa’s performance after the trade has given Astros fans a reason to be hopeful. Ed Wade took a gamble here on previously well ranked prospect in Sosa while hoping that a change of scenery could do him some good. Even though he has already made it to the majors it will be a long time before we will know if he has what it takes to stick at the major league level, and also in the rotation as far as that goes. Jason Stoffel is a reliever who unlike Sosa has not fared all that well since the trade, but has a so-so shot of making it to the majors somewhere down the line.

18.) Astros send Hunter Pence to the Phillies for Jared Cosart, Jonathan Singleton, Josh Zeid, and a PTBNL

This has by far been one of the riskiest trades Ed Wade has made in his tenure as GM of the Astros. Wade traded for two high risk high reward type guys in Cosart in Singleton. Therefore this trade has the potential to be the best Wade has made, or it could be the biggest bust as well. This trade also still has a chance to get a little better depending on who the player to be named later is.

19.) Astros send Michael Bourn to the Braves for Jordan Schafer, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer, and Juan Abreu

Where the Hunter Pence trade was all risk, the Michael Bourn trade seemed to be pretty conservative. In Schafer the Astros get a major league ready centerfielder that still has a little upside who at the very least will provide solid defense at a premium position in a spacious ballpark. They also received 2 solid pitching prospects in Oberholtzer and Clemens who have experienced some success at every stop and seem to be a pretty safe bet at seeing some time in the majors.

Conclusion

Out of the 19 trades mentioned, according to WAR received, Ed Wade has won 10 of the trades, lost 5, and received a no decision on 4. Overall that’s not too bad considering the bad rap that Wade generally gets when it comes to trading. How the most recent trades shake out, including last year’s Roy Oswalt trade will go a long way in determining how good or bad Wade has been when it comes to making trades.

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Comments

Good Article

I really liked this article… kind of shows that fans think they know everything, but Ed Wade has done a good to above average job on the trades he has made!!!

by KDub711 on Aug 12, 2011 6:39 AM CDT reply actions

Salaries

Are a big factor in trades that have been ignored. If we dump Wandy for a non-productive prospect, and Wandy continues being Wandy (adjusted for wherever he goes) with a little regression, Astros win, even those Wandy will have a +WAR.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 12, 2011 9:08 AM CDT reply actions

I think the salary issue falls under the category of trade constraints. If one were to give Wade grades on trades, then the constraints on the trades should be taken into account. For example, if Roy Oswalt will only agree to be traded to certain teams, then that is a constraint which may reduce the value available to Wade in a trade. So long as Wandy’s future salary is less than his WAR value if he stays with the Astros (which I think is likely), then giving him away should be considered a negative trade (without taking constraints into account). However, if the ownership has placed a budget constraint on Wade that virtually forces the removal of his salary, then your point is valid.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree with the premise, though, that a WAR analysis is incomplete without considering salaries.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 7:20 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with you that salaries are a big factor in trades, but I didn’t necessarily ignore them. If Wandy is dealt then what happens with his remaining salary will play a huge part in the value of that trade.

As far as the trades listed only the Roy Oswald trade is one where a significant amount of money was involved, which will more than likely mean the Astros will lose that flight in the long run.

As far as salaries are concerned the Astros took on a significant amount of payroll in the Valverde trade, but also gave up a significant amount of salary in the Lidge trade. I know they are two separate deals and don’t correlate as far as the individual trades go, but as far as payroll was concerned that year it seemed like Wade and co upgraded the closer spot by only adding a little bit to the payroll.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 9:44 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Sorry, also forgot about the Triads trade. Astros took on alot of salary in that one as well. I guess using WAR that trade was already considered a loss anyways so it just adds salt to the wound.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 9:57 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Interesting results.

One thing I have repeatedly said in the past is that WAR does not value late inning relievers well. (This isn’t a criticism of your post, since you are using the WAR data which is available from Fangraphs.) I think the leverage component is undervalued and that FIP is a weak measure of performance for relievers (though it is better than ERA). FIP and x-FIP are reasonable measures for predicting future performance, but it doesn’t tell us how much the relievers actually contributed to wins in the given years of their trade. I am starting to lean toward win value stats as a better measure of reliever performance. I think net shutdowns minus meltdowns is a good comparison for late inning relievers, but it’s hard to translate that to “wins.” Another possibility is to use the net Win Probability Added.

That gets me to the Valverde-Qualls trade. I think WAR doesn’t value their relative performance well. Contrary to their WAR total for the relevant trade years, which shows Qualls as more valuable, I think Valverde was more valuable from a win perspective. Valverde’s net SD-MD is a much higher than Qualls for the relevant years. Valverde’s WPA for 2008-2009 is 3.0. Chad Qualls’ WPA for the same period is 1.6. I think that supports my point that the Valverde trade was a good one.

This doesn’t change your overall conclusions, but I thought I would offer that alternative view of valuing the reliever trades.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 9:19 AM CDT reply actions

I agree with you on that. If the Astros went with Qualls as the full time closer in 08every then I think there is no way that he saves 44 or 45 games that year like Valverde did. Valverde was more solid on the whole than Qualls was on 08.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 9:34 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Another interesting note

Of the 10 minor leaguers Wade traded away that had never made it to the majors yet, none of them have seen substantial time in the minors. I believe Drew Sutton has seen the most mainly with the Red Sox, but it isn’t a significant amount of time. I guess that says that Wade and Heck have a good grasp of assessing the talent in their system.

As far as the fringe players go Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez have been serviceable, but no superstars given up in this bunch.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 9:55 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

Nice to have this presented so clearly

I like seeing the data presented, along with your conclusions. That way we have something to refer to for discussions.

Now as to the logic of the Paulino trade evaluation . . . I’m not sure we should disregard Paulino’s time with the Royals. Surely this should be “held against” Wade to some degree. The Astros lost out on his value by cutting ties with him.

by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 12, 2011 10:01 AM CDT reply actions

Yeah that’s a tough one. I looked at his WAR for the whole season and it is at 1.7, so far Barmes is still higher. But I guess you have to take into account that the Astros lost out on future years of Paulino’s service as well.

I guess you could say that the Astros won the trade with the Rockies, but they may have lost to themselves for sacrificing Paulino’s for one year of Barmes. This is assuming Paulino continues to pitch the way he currently is, which could be difficult for him since he has been so erratic for his career.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 10:11 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Great analysis.

I was wondering how all these played out in terms of WAR but never got around to looking it up. Thanks. I was surprised to see just how even the Tejada trade turned out. Then when I take into account the fact that Luke Scott is a little on the crazy side, I feel like it’s a win now.

by ntn on Aug 12, 2011 10:02 AM CDT reply actions

At the time I really hated to see Patton go, but he definitely did not pan out.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 10:13 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

At the time of the trade, I was somewhat negative on the Tejada trade, mostly because I hated to see the Astros letting go of young starting pitchers. However, in the succeeding couple of months, we learned that Patton had an arm injury and that both the Orioles and Astros were aware of that when they made the trade. That changed by view of the trade, because Patton was the best pitching prospect in the trade and he was damaged goods. Also, it turned out that Albers’ future is as a reliever, rather than a starter, which made letting go of him tolerable. I think the trade was fairly even, with each side getting something they wanted.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions

Good stuff

but the above point about salaries being a HUGE peice of this is true.

Lidge- unquestioned that Wade won this deal.
Tejada- push
Valverde- WAR totals aside, I think this was a big win for Houston. Especially considering the draft picks.
Anderson- inconsequential
Hawkins- win
Wolf- big win, although it was boneheaded not to offer him arbitration.
Keppinger1- GIGANTIC win, especially when you look at what he’s brought back in this year’s deal.
Lindstrom1- win
Oswalt- remains to be seen, but given the Astros situation, with Oswalt simultaneously demanding a trade and limiting the teams, along with Houston needing to rebuild, I’d say Wade did alright. I have high hopes for Villar.
Wallace- looking like a loss now with Wallace demoted and Gose a top 50 guy.
Berkman- HUGE win
Feliz- HUGE win
Del Rosario- win
Barmes- push, although personally I was done with Paulino, so I liked the deal, especially if we offer arb and Barmes rejects and we get a comp pick.
Lindstrom2- loss
Escalona- win
Inglett- inconsequential
Kepp2- remains to be seen, but so far so good, especially when you consider that Wade was in a forced rebuild. Should yield a spot starter and middle reliever at worst, could yield much more.
Pence- remains to be seen, but so far so good, especially when you consider that Wade was in a forced rebuild. Should yield 5 years of 2 starters (pitcher and 1B) at worst, could yield much more.
Bourn- remains to be seen, but so far so good, especially when you consider that Wade was in a forced rebuild. Should yield a solid SP and a solid RP, along with a good reserve OF for 5 years, possibilities for much more.

Wade should be rated as excellent on the waiver wire, very good on trades, very good on farm development, solid on payroll management, and poor on free agency acquisitions. Overall I think he is a good GM and catches way too much crap. If they replace him the next guy needs to be a total stud.

by Snake Diggity on Aug 12, 2011 11:08 AM CDT reply actions

I agree with everything except with the assessment of the Bourn deal

I understand that you can say that Clemens and Obie (I’m not going to humiliate myself by attempting that name) were undervalued because they were overshadowed, but Bourn was the team’s best player and still had another year of team control. Wade should’ve held onto him or traded him for at least one blue chip guy (he got 2 blue chip guys for Pence).

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 12, 2011 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions

True

The Bourn trade was disappointing considering what Wade got for Pence. But it could still be fair.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 11:19 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

It'll take one of the two pitchers to turn into a rotation mainstay for me to be happy with it

And Schafer to be adequate in CF. And to be honest, I don’t think the odds are good that that happens. Clemens seems like a decent bet to at least see some time in the majors, but the flameout rate of pitchers (look at all the pitchers we gave up who never became anything) makes it so you need some real quality talent to make up for losing a 5 WAR player.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 12, 2011 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions

I agree with you on that.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 11:29 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I agree with pretty much everything you said.

Also, as far as Wade and free agency is concerned, Draytons budget may have had something to do with his poor track record. If money limited Wade’s options to a less than stellar talent pool, then it is not all that surprising that they disappointed.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 11:17 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Great points... Thanks Snake

The only guy that would be better than wade at this point is Friedman. I we can’t get him, I’d prefer to keep Wade. But Friedman seems like a pipe dream at this point and I hope Crane doesn’t fire a good gm Wade unless he has a no brained to replace him.

Great article.

by The Pentaverate on Aug 12, 2011 12:36 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

WHOA, WHOA, WHOA did you just say Wade and good Gm in the same sentence?

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 12, 2011 1:35 PM CDT up reply actions

I'm not so sure

I’d say he was very good at farm development. It’s still too early to tell tell for sure, but as of now there aren’t too many prospects that have me very excited. He gets a lot of credit simply because he followed a time where the Astros could not get any worse on the farm. I like Altuve but he wasn’t Wade. Martinez and Lyles look like fantastic picks but many of the other top picks seem pretty blah to me even if I do understand the Astros’ thinking.

by ntn on Aug 12, 2011 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

THIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Wade AND Heck get a lot of credit because they’ve done an average job at rebuilding the farm, possibly below average.

Consider this – we are still in jsut the middle of the pack in farm systems, maybe not even that.

Also, 5 maybe 6 of our top prospects were not even originally ours. I like the Pence trade, so-so on the Bourn trade.

Got lucky with Martinez, good with Lyles, Altuve’s not his. Yeah, Wade can pack his bags -- so can Heck honestly.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 12, 2011 2:18 PM CDT up reply actions

jonmorosi Jon Morosi
#Athletics name Phil Garner as special advisor. #Brewers #Tigers #Astros

by EveryHoustonTeamRox! on Aug 12, 2011 12:09 PM CDT reply actions

So, like Snake Diggity said above, Ed Wade is great at the waiver wire, good at drafting and scouting, good at trades, and bad at free agency. If the future payroll restrictions that we are hearing about Crane’s camp are true, then should Crane keep Wade. Doesn’t sound like the Astros would be going after too many free agents with a 50-60 million dollar payroll.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 12:44 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

how can a gm be good at trades/scouting but bad at FA?

It seems like a strange trait to have: FA seems way easier to project than scouting prospects ( either in the draft or for trades ). With FA the talent is essentially known, as is the regression for the most part. To me this points to just dumb luck/sample size being a huge factor in both directions—-he’s probably about average at both in reality….

by isaacjunk on Aug 12, 2011 1:08 PM CDT reply actions

I think Wade was constrained by two mandates, reduce or limit payroll, and simueltaneous construct a competitive team. Given the options and costs available in free agency, Wade had to take chances on signing free agents with flaws and hope that they rebound or come through. There probably is a good bit of luck involved in taking those kinds of risks.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions

Thanks!

I was blasted for writing that the Qualls/Valverde trade was a loss for the Astros. I’m glad that your article proved me right.

by CRPerry13 on Aug 12, 2011 1:19 PM CDT reply actions

See my view above that FIP used in WAR is the wrong way to grade a relief pitcher trade.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions

I think we should possibly look into signing Ryan Vogelsong next year.

Maybe a 3 year deal less than what Wandy is making. He could be our ace to replace Wandy.

……….. I know this is totally random, just putting this where everyone is posting.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 12, 2011 1:38 PM CDT reply actions

I wouldn’t mind seeing that. I have a feeling he might be a Yankee next year.

by Nado2036 on Aug 12, 2011 1:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, let’s give a guy a big deal coming off of a freaky career year!

by jmike on Aug 12, 2011 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Ed overpayed for a pitcher with a career LAST year. Those who don't know history are....

by CRPerry13 on Aug 13, 2011 8:49 AM CDT up reply actions

I wonder how much he'll command.

He seems like a very humble guy. Plus, it’s only one season. Granted, a very good season.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 12, 2011 2:19 PM CDT reply actions

Out of curiosity

It was mentioned above with the Qualls versus Valverde discussion, but I’m curious:

Which pitcher do you view as more valuable. The setup guy that pitches more often or the shutdown closer that pitches in mainly just save situations. Afterall, you have to get to the 9th before you can save the game. I loved it when Lidge and Dotel were handing the ball over to Wagner.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 3:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

It depends on the situation. I think there are stats that measure leverage, but I’m not too familiar with them.

A save in the 9th with a three run lead against the bottom of the order is not that impressive. Pitching the 7th against the heart of the order with on run lead is more impressive.

by jmike on Aug 12, 2011 6:21 PM CDT up reply actions

Kinda relevant here

I just read the Jayson Stark article linked by AstrosCounty, and in it talked about the PTBNL. It said that the Astros had 2 1/2 weeks before they had to decide who they would choose, but one of there potential options could be Luis Castro who is an outfielder who just got injured and that Houston may be trying to lengthen their list because of this. Interesting….

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 3:17 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Leandro Castro

Heres a link about him – http://philliesnation.com/archives/2011/01/prospectnation-2011-24-leandro-castro/

I hope we lean another way, as in a SP. We need pitching, not more light hitting speedy OF’s/

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 12, 2011 3:27 PM CDT reply actions

I agree. Hope they add a starting pitcher with promise to the list.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 3:46 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Disingenuous to the nth degree. Not only did the Astros give 5 players for Tejada, they paid Tejada 26 million over 2 years.

Brad Lidge had a perfect season on a championship team. Lance Berkman was the best hitter the Yankees had last postseason. Not only that, but he was freely available to the Astros this past offseason for 4 million. Ed Wade spent 3.75 mil on Bill Hall instead and the Brett Wallace disaster has ensued.

Barmes costs nearly 5 million and Paulino has pitched much much better than J.A. Happ has.

The Enerio del Rosario trade was a win? Really? Sergio Escalona? You use WAR as an all-encompassing statistic, you have 2 guys who have accumulated negative WAR and somehow you have tallied up 2 wins for Ed Wade.

This team is 38-80. The results are directly traceable to Ed Wade’s bungling of resources. Rather than focusing on how Ed Wade picked up a forgettable relief prospect for Pedro Feliz, they should focus on how he wasted 5 million on Pedro Feliz.

Hey, but look! Ed Wade improved the farm system! And all it cost was Oswalt, Berkman, Lidge, Pence and 4 forgettable years of accruing higher draft picks! Way to go Ed!

by kb10bu on Aug 12, 2011 3:29 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs

Yes EDR has a negative WAR, but they gave up cash for him and that’s it. He has several years of team control left. I say win. I think most people will say the Astros came out on top in the Lidge trade. Do you think that 5the and 6that years of team control for Paredes and Melancon was not worth half a season of the Berkman last year , not the Berkman this year. The Astros traded Paulino to the Rockies and not the Royals.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 3:45 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

The Reds were willing to trade EDR in division for cash and that’s it. They clearly didn’t think that highly of him. What has he shown so far to change anyone’s mind about him?

The Berkman trade was Ed Wade’s best and I am not complaining about that move on an individual level. Berkman could have been had for nothing except salary this offseason and Ed Wade passed in order to play Brett Wallace.

Melancon is a 6th/7th inning guy pitching the 9th inning for the Astros. He is hardly an elite relief prospect or a future shutdown reliever. He’s Chad Qualls…maybe not quite as good. Jimmy Paredes is a great athlete who has no business being in the major leagues right now. He might turn into a good player and he might not. I am not going to waste my time worrying about the 5th and 6th years of service time of 2 guys who might not ever make it into their 5th/6th years in the major leagues. Reasonable trade for the Astros? Sure. Nothing the Yankees are going to regret.

The Astros traded Paulino for a guy who was going to be non-tendered. The acquisition of Happ accelerated the departure of Paulino. Who would the Astros be better off with this season…Paulino and Berkman or Wallace and Happ?

You can split hairs on whether it was a trade, through waivers, free agency, etc. etc. The bottom line is that this team is 38-80.

Oswalt put a very good team over the top. Lidge put a very good team over the top. You’re wasting time arguing the utility of Melancon vs. a replacement level reliever on a 38 win team.

Ed Wade’s tenure has been disastrous and I don’t know why people waste time defending him. The farm system is better not because Ed Wade has done a good job managing his resources, but because he has purged all the major league level talent off the roster. The farm system is a means to an end. Having the 17th ranked farm system vs. the 26th ranked farm system means very little. Making marginal upgrades to the farm system while sitting through .300 win % years should not be celebrated.

by kb10bu on Aug 12, 2011 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs

Barmes was probably going to be non tendered, but if that happened there is no way of knowing if Wade could have competed with the other teams and got him so he decided to go the safe route and trade for him.

Not for sure that the Happ acquisition hastened the Paulino trade. I think the fifth spot in the rotation was between Figueroa and Paulino, not Happ and Paulino at that time.

Nobody knew Berkman this was going to rebound the way he did. Hindsight is everything in that decision.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 4:25 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Also, was Born’s 3 1/2 seasons in houston not more valuable than Lidge’s perfect season.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 4:32 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Agreed on Barmes. Wade essentially paid for the exclusive right to negotiate with Barmes. It doesn’t matter that Paulino is performing vs. the Royals instead of the Rockies. What matters is that he is not doing it for the Astros. Again, I’m not going to argue that as an individual move that this was a horrible trade. I just think it’s disingenuous to put it in the win column while ignoring salary and the fact that Paulino has out-pitched several members of the Astros starting rotation.

Berkman was hurt all of last year. His injury prevented himself from getting in shape. Last year’s performance was a fairly big outlier in comparison to his career. He was crushing the ball to left-center in the post-season. Has he performed better than expected? Maybe, but I’m certainly not shocked. I certainly expected him to rebound.

My larger point is that you can’t do a comprehensive trade analysis based on WAR. You are looking at each move on an individual level, adding up the WAR, and tallying up each move equally as if the effect of the Sergio Escalona trade is as meaningful as the Roy Oswalt trade. Not only that, you are counting moves that have improved the team on a very marginal level (if at all) as wins and counting moves that have clearly hurt the team on a significant level as “too early to tell”.

Teams don’t make trades based on the threshold of replacement level. They make trades based upon who they already have on the roster and who they have in the minor leagues. They weigh the utility of those players against the alternatives they have in the trade market. Ed Wade has traded for guys to fill roles when he has better players in his own organization at his disposal.

Normally teams have some sort of short-term or long-term plan. The Astros have no more organizational talent than they did 4 years ago. The talent dispersal has simply shifted more towards the minor league level. Any team can purge their roster of ML talent and scream “3 year plan”, but that does not guarantee they will be any good in 3 years. The Astros are 38-80. How much worse would they need to be before the defense of Ed Wade dies down?

by kb10bu on Aug 12, 2011 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions 3 recs

Barmes was not going to be non-tendered. Several teams were interested in him.

by jmike on Aug 12, 2011 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions

You sound bitter over the trading of Oswalt and Berkman kb10bu. They needed to go

as one Oswalt no longer wanted to be and became a distraction demanding that he be traded. Berkman on the other hand was much more professional about the situation but his play had begun to diminish. Although low and behold who decides to get into shape this past off season and his production returns to where it once was? what that tells me and should tell everyone else is Lance did not care anymore while he was here. He didn’t take care himself after his injuries here and got out of shape. I mean after if he can hire a personal trainer this PAST off season why did he not do it before when he had gotten injured? I’ll tell yo why. Berkman sees the writing on the wall. He knows that at his age, which is only a handful of years younger than myself, that his time to be a productive ML ball player is quickly running out. Therefore, Lance decided to get his fat lazy backside into shape to try and cash in on the twilight of his career which is a pity because if he had taken care of himself while here there is a chance that a trade of Lance to a contender would have yielded a much more significant return for Houston and Ed Wade.
You seem hell bent on trying to find anything that can be turned against Ed Wade so that can have a scapegoat to direct your anger at. do take this as me defending Wade because as anybody on here can tell you I have no love for Wade but I also realize that he has had his hands tied between having one of the least knowledgeable owners in the game, one player demanding to be traded publicly, and another that gave up and just went through the motions. Direct most of your anger at those individuals as they also helped get this team to this point. Yes Ed Wade deserves a fair amount of yours and everyone’s anger but your putting everything on Wade’s shoulders which is unfair because honestly, just like in the real world we all answer to someone and in Ed’s case it is Tal Smith and Drayton. Those two guys deserve most if not all of the blame you are wanting to place solely on Wade. Again I have no love loss for Ed Wade but he’s in a tough position with a baseball ignorant owner and and aging out of touch with today’s game Tal Smith plus inheriting a near depleted farm system which is slowly gaining talent through trades and drafts. It’s going to take time to rebuild even after the finalizing of the change of ownership.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 7:49 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I seem hellbent on turning things against Ed Wade? The team is 38-81. I don’t need to search that hard. There are a slew of bad decisions Ed Wade has made to lead to that record. The owner has given Wade constraints, as just about every general manager has to deal with. He has done a horrible job within the constraints.

You want me to tell you Drayton has been a good owner for the last 5 years? I’m not going to do it. I’m not killing a guy who has worked within the constraints and put together a mediocre team. I’m killing a guy who has put together one of the worst teams in major league history together and still gets defended. I’m killing a guy who has made poor decision after poor decision after poor decision and gets a free pass. Those who defend Wade don’t even want to talk about Ed Wade, they just want to distract you and start talking about Drayton. Let’s talk about what Ed Wade is responsible for. It’s not pretty.

Everyone wants to act as if this was inevitable. The Astros are the worst team in baseball by far. 10 teams have a lower payroll. Many other GM’s work with a difficult owner. None have failed as miserably as Ed Wade has. OKC, CC, Lancaster, and Lexington have the worst records in their league. Not just their division, but their LEAGUE. How is that level of incompetence even possible?

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions

How is it possible? Ed Wade inherited a stinking rotten corpse of a farm system. It takes many years to rebuild the depth in the farm system. The lack of picks in the 2007 draft probably set an already weak farm system back by 3 or 4 years. The only way to speed that process up is to trade good players off the major league roster for prospects. People can disagree as to whether that is a good idea or not. Wade began that process last year. I’m not wild about the idea that this kind of process requires the major league team to hit rock bottom before it improves. But I think it became inevitable when McLane reduces the budget by $35 million over a three year period payroll, and then the new owner supposedly want to cut the budget even more.

by clack on Aug 13, 2011 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions

The 2007 draft was an outright catastrophe and one of the burdens that Ed Wade inherited when he took the job. He also took over a team with a relatively healthy payroll and a solid core of major leaguers.

He may not have inherited a great farm system, but he did inherit Oswalt, Berkman, Pence, Lidge, Lee (overpaid but productive in ‘08/’09), Wandy, Norris, Qualls, etc. The farm system is a means to an end.

1 draft does not set a farm system back 3 or 4 years. The early returns of the Wade/Heck drafts have not exactly been stellar either. Lyles was a fantastic pick, but aside from that there isn’t a whole lot there in the drafts. It would be hard not to improve the farm system if you’re just trading off all your good players.

Wade/Heck have erred on the side of athletes over baseball players. Before this season, Wade was interviewed about the team’s good young minor league players. He talked about Lyles of course, a little about Villar, and about 5 minutes talking about TJ freaking Steele. He talked about the exciting young OF in Corpus without bringing up JD Martinez once. Martinez was much more accomplished (not to mention younger) than Steele and Gaston, but obviously not the overall athlete so Wade didn’t bother to bring him up.

The draft/trade strategy has left the Astros with a lot of athletes who have not necessarily gotten great results. All there is with a lot of guys is hope and projection because they are not close to major league quality players yet.

Payroll constraints? Kind of. It’s hard for me to take payroll constraints seriously when he recently committed 38 million to Brett Myers and Brandon Lyon. Or when he’s committed about 25 million to Matsui, Hall, and Feliz. That doesn’t even mention the money he has thrown in for the Oswalt, Berkman, Pence, and Bourn deals. He has certainly been afforded a lot more flexibility in the draft and at the minor league level than his predecessors were.

So 2 questions basically…Is the overall level of organizational talent better than it was 4 years ago and if so is it enough better to justify the Astros being as bad as they are at the major league level for the past 4 years?

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

1 draft does not set a farm system back 3 or 4 years.

It was more than just the 2007 draft that set the Astros back.

The 2006 draft was merely OK, yielding Bud Norris out of the 6th round and Chris Johnson out of the 4th.

The 2005 draft was almost as bad as the 2007 draft…it’s a toss-up as to who is the most successful draftee from that class: Bogusevic? Manzella? Koby Clemens? They’re all basically organizational or replacement level players.

2004 was better in that we landed Hunter Pence in the first round, but Purpura traded away Ben Zobrist as part of a package to rent Aubrey Huff, and the next best player was JR Towles.

2003? Who do you like better, Jason Hirsch or Josh Anderson. We drafted Drew Stubbs, but as Richard Justice likes to point out with some regularity, the Astros didn’t sign him.

The 2002 first-round pick, Derick Grigsby, never made it above A-ball, and the next best pick, Mark McLemore, only saw the majors for 35 innings of high K, high BB relief pitching. 2001 gave us Chris Burke, Kirk Saarloos, and Matt Albers.

Basically, the list of good, solid everyday players from the drafts spanning 2001-2007 boils down to Hunter Pence, Bud Norris, and some relief pitchers. That kind of drafting will bleed a system dry pretty fast. The Twins basically did that well in the 2005 draft alone (Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Alex Burnett). I’m not even sure the mid-2000’s Astros farm system had enough quality organizational players to provide a decent challenge to the few players we drafted with major league talent.

So 2 questions basically…Is the overall level of organizational talent better than it was 4 years ago and if so is it enough better to justify the Astros being as bad as they are at the major league level for the past 4 years?

.
The overall talent level is better than in 2007. Here’s BA’s Top 10 Prospects for 2007, so you can make your own decision. I do think that the series of bad drafts significantly contributed to the state of the Astros in the last 4 years. Not only did it mean the Astros didn’t have a proper influx of talent year-after-year, but after long enough, it meant that the Astros had to divert resources from the major league level to rectify talent deficiencies throughout the organization.

by AstroAndy on Aug 13, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Great piece on the past drafts, makes me wonder who really is the culprit?

I am leaning heavily on Tal Smith and Drayton McLane. Was it not last draft that we had 3 first/supp rounders? Didn’t Tal say to draft a college guy after we picked up the two high schoolers, what the F does Tal Smith know of anything, he has not done any good from what I can tell except be a AARP buddy to McLane.

by blazemule on Aug 17, 2011 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions

The farm system talent (including those who have moved up to the major leagues) is better than it was 4 years ago. I don’t think it is an appropriate comparison to compare the ML roster of 4 years ago to this one, because the best players on that 2007 roster are 4 years older now, which seriously affects their current value to the team. In effect, the ML roster asset he inherited has depreciated significantly (and forseeably) due to the passage of time. Wade made an attempt at contending with the inherited assets, plus additions, in 2008, and the team was a contender until the hurricane killed their season. As Berkman, Lee, and Oswalt continued to age, Wade was correct in believing that more additions would be necessary to contend again. He planned for a $115 million or so budget (about $10 million or so higher), but he McLane told him in the middle of the off-season that the existing budget would be cut by about $10 million. Entering 2010, the budget was cut again, with Wade facing another year of age-related risk for Lee, Oswalt, and Berkman. Oswalt, Lee, Berkman, Pence, and Bourn were no longer a sufficient core to develop a winning team without the addition of more assets, and the gap would grow in the future as they aged. And it requires more money to acquire those assets, which McLane wasn’t willing to do. Truthfully, many GMs would have told McLane to trade his major league assets earlier than Wade did. And I have my doubts that the greatest GMs of all time, whether it’s Branch Rickey or whomever you want to choose, could have created great teams under these circumstances.

As for the 3 or 4 year set back due to the 2007 draft, that is what baseball executives told McLane (at least according to Richard Justice).

The multi-year contracts you cite for Myers and Wandy are in part due to short term budget constraints. In particular, Wandy’s back loaded contract probably was the only way that Wade could retain Wandy in 2011 within the budget he was given.

by clack on Aug 13, 2011 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions

I’ll try to respond to both comments in this….

Andy, I’m well aware that the overall state of the farm system is better than it was 4 years ago. My question was concerning the entire organization. Major league and minor league. Everyone the Astros have the rights to. Organizationally speaking, are the Astros in better position now than they were 4 years ago?

4 years ago the Astros had a solid base of proven major league talent and a decrepit farm system. Now the Astros have a decrepit major league roster and an averagish farm system.

Clack, Ed Wade’s extra contributions to the payroll included Tejada (2/26), Matsui (3/16.5), Feliz (1/5), Hall (1/3.75), Villareal (2/2.1), Lyon (3/15), and Myers (2/23). Those numbers are the guaranteed numbers including buyouts and are off of memory so correct me if I’m wrong. He had some disposable money to spend and he spent it all poorly.

I have no issue with Wandy’s contract. He would receive more in an open market. I don’t understand all the hand-wringing about it and I laughed when Heyman tried to claim that Wandy had no chance of getting claimed on waivers.

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions

…just to be clear, I’m not arguing that Wade has done a great job. I probably would rate him as no better than average, and perhaps somewhat below average. I don’t agree with laying all of the blame on him for where the major league team stands right now.

by clack on Aug 13, 2011 9:25 PM CDT up reply actions

And just to be clear….I’m not blaming it “all” on Ed Wade. I’m not going to blame it all on Drayton either. It’s clear that Ed Wade has had a heavy hand in this as well. No one wants to seem to acknowledge that, for whatever reason.

by kb10bu on Aug 14, 2011 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions

Like I said in my earlier post I am no friend of Ed Wade as anybody here will

tell you but your placing ALL the blame on Ed Wade. He does deserve some if not alot of it but Ed Wade answers to Drayton. Ed Wade like any and every company excutive has to work with the resources given them by their superior(s). In this case Ed Wade was given a system bereft of talent thanks in part to Drayton and the previous FO trading away some of the talent in the minors for rental and mediocre players as well not signing talented young players in the draft by not going over slot like all the top teams in MLB do on a regular basis. Drayton and previous FO’s began that practice long ago and has continued the practice until this past draft when they also decided to go with choice of BPA. In Drayton’s tenure that is something that also been missing. He also abandoned the international market which had produced some really nice talent for the Astros at one point. This was another failure of Drayton regime.
Your statement of everyone wants to act as if this was inevitable is because it was inevitable. We all saw it coming several years ago and yet nothing was done to try and correct the ship. The GM has to have the permission and the finances to turn things around and the OWNER is the one who gives that permission and increase in finances. Guess who the owner over all these years of neglect and cheapness? That’s right its Drayton not Ed Wade. You can’t give a GM the payroll of KC or TB and expect the roster and talent level of the NY Yankees. It’s just like the old adage of one having champagne tastes on a beer budget.
Your argument that Ed Wade took over a team with a relatively healthy payroll and a solid core of of MLers is true on one hand but the reality of it is that one guy had just been signed to the DUMBEST contract in franchise history and the others were becoming disgruntled, out of shape, injury prone, and on the downsides of their careers with the exception of Pence who never has been nor will he ever be a superstar. Oswalt was becoming a cancer in the clubhouse when he was healthy, Berkman a fat out of shape and oft injured first baseman, Lee the overrated player, and the rest were just beginning their careers but were spectacular. This is hardly a “solid core” of major league ball players.
Your anger and unwillingness to take the blinders off and see that Ed Wade is taking the full brunt of your anger is not fully justified. Has Ed Wade made some bad decisions? Hell yes. But you need to put those decisions into context with what he has been given to work with. An owner who knows nothing about the game of baseball should trust and let the baseball minds in the organization do their thing as long as its within reason.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 13, 2011 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions

Your statement of everyone wants to act as if this was inevitable is because it was inevitable.

What was inevitable? Regression? Sure. Not competing for the division? Sure. Going 38-81? No, that’s not inevitable.

The GM has to have the permission and the finances to turn things around and the OWNER is the one who gives that permission and increase in finances. Guess who the owner over all these years of neglect and cheapness?

You seem to be fairly unfamiliar with the Drayton McLane era. He has expanded payroll when necessary. “Cheapness” my ass. He realized the team wasn’t going anywhere. That doesn’t excuse Ed Wade from turning a bad situation into a catastrophe.

You can’t give a GM the payroll of KC or TB and expect the roster and talent level of the NY Yankees.

Hilarious. Since I’m clearly expecting the talent to be equivalent to the New York Yankees. There are certainly no margins between 38-81 and the New York Yankees. 10 teams have lower payrolls this season. No one has a worse record. This is also the lowest the payroll has been during the Wade era.

Oswalt was becoming a cancer in the clubhouse when he was healthy,

Oswalt was a very good pitcher up through the day he was traded.

Berkman a fat out of shape and oft injured first baseman,

Berkman was an under-appreciated elite major league hitter. Even in his off season last year he was still producing at a much much higher level than Brett Wallace did this season. I don’t understand the need to #### all over 2 of the best players in franchise history.

Your anger and unwillingness to take the blinders off and see that Ed Wade is taking the full brunt of your anger is not fully justified.

I think you need to take the blinders off and start reading my arguments. I’m not claiming this team should be a powerhouse. I’m not even claiming this team should be competing. Hell, I’m not even claiming this should be a .500 team. They are 43 games under .500. I will complain about that.

I’m not going to talk about Drayton’s culpability because I know there are plenty of people here to do that anyways. Let’s talk about what Ed Wade is responsible for given the constraints. He has to be held to some sort of standard. What are reasonable results given the constraints he is working with?

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

I agree with you about the Berkman and Oswalt bashing. I get so tired of reading posts that call Berkman fat or lazy.

by Brad E on Aug 13, 2011 7:58 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

First off, it is inevitable when you are unwilling to invest in your farm system, player development, and the international market. If you keep acquiring talent you’ll never be able to replace what you lose due to old age, injury, or free agency.
Secondly, Im very familiar with Drayton McClane era unfortunately since I was living in Houston when purchased the franchise and then moved back to Houston several years later due to my job. So tell me when has expanded the payroll? Tejada? No. Randy Johnson? No. Beltran? No. So what impact player(s) did he expand the payroll for? Do you mean for Bagwell and Biggio? If you do then thats a no brainer. He’d of been run out of town to not sign the two faces of the franchise and future HOFers. If not them then whom are you referring to?
Third, the ten teams with lower payrolls have struggled for years and actually have better farm systems than Houston since they have been regularly been drafting in higher slots compared to the Astros. They also tend to pay over slot for their top picks which the McClane refuses to do because of his BFF Bud Selig. So your argument here is ridiculous.
Fourth, I never said Oswalt was not a productive pitcher but he was becoming injury prone then and still is to this very day.
Fifth, never said that Berkman was never a good player. I enjoyed watching him play at Rice while I was working in Houston back in the 90s. But answer me this, why in the hell did he not keep himself in shape in previous years in the exact same manner that he did this past off season? Answer is, he no longer cared. He didnt take of himself the way he should have after his initial knee injury. He gained a lot of weight and was only going through the motions the last couple of years collecting his millions.
Im not shitting on Oswalt and Berkman whatsoever. Im calling it like I saw it then and the way I see it now. One was injury prone pitcher who cried his way out of Houston and Lance just gave up. honestly your argument with these two guys makes me think you were a young kid during this time and are arguin with your heart and not you head here. People, especially kids and sports fans in general, tend to fall “in love” with certain players and tend to hold on to memories of their heroes and defend them vigorously. Hell I did it when I was a kid watching the Astros of 70s and 80s.
Do you really think Ed envisioned this type of season? No. He went out trying to sign some FAs who he though would help this team stay somewhat competitive. Unfortunately you cant sign guys like Orlando Hudson when you have an Angel Sanchez budget to work with. You cant sign and Adam Dunn when you have one WAAAAY overpaid OFer in Carlos Lee. Ed had no idea that Arias would nor be coming back, that Myers would be THIS bad, nor that Johnson and Wallace would neither one hit like they did, that Bill Hall would be THAT atrocious, or finally that JA Happ would just completely fall apart like he did. Its just a horrible year and its not all Ed Wade’s fault. Shit happens and thats life. Had Drayton paid more attention the Astros’ farm system in years past they would have had talent moving through the system and up to Houston to hopefully prevent the issues that we are now seeing today. But Drayton didnt do that. Why? Who knows but Im not completely shocked since he knows nothing about the game of baseball. He’s a grocer and should have stayed with that line of business. He and he alone is responsible for this train wreck of a system.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 13, 2011 8:12 PM CDT up reply actions

You say you are not shitting all over them and then proceed to shit all over them. Oswalt is the best pitcher in franchise history. Berkman is one of the best position players in Astros franchise history. The need to shift blame to them to support your ridiculous Ed Wade stance is pretty sad.

Unfortunately you cant sign guys like Orlando Hudson when you have an Angel Sanchez budget to work with. You cant sign and Adam Dunn when you have one WAAAAY overpaid OFer in Carlos Lee.

The Orlando Hudson who is making 4 million dollars this year? That’s 250,000 more than he paid Bill Hall and less than he’s paying Brandon Lyon. Strange and irrelevant example either way.

Ed had no idea that Arias would nor be coming back, that Myers would be THIS bad, nor that Johnson and Wallace would neither one hit like they did, that Bill Hall would be THAT atrocious, or finally that JA Happ would just completely fall apart like he did.

Um, OK. What exactly do you think Ed Wade’s job is? Every move he makes blows up in his face, but none of it is his fault?

It is stunning to me how people want to forgive Ed Wade of all accountability here. Ed Wade has used his resources about as inefficiently as humanly possible yet everyone wants to make ridiculous excuses for him.

No one is saying McLane is not responsible. Let’s talk about Ed Wade’s responsibility. Your only argument is to talk about Drayton McLane. How exactly has Ed Wade done a good job with what he has had?

by kb10bu on Aug 14, 2011 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions

first off if you actually read what Ive posted Ive said several times

that Ed Wade deserves a lot of blame. In no way am I absolving Ed of all blame like you keep insinuating. You seriously need to reread what Ive written. Just like in the business world the person in charge whether it be a CEO or an entry level mgr. the person in charge must be held accountable for the actions of their subordinates. Drayton owns the ship that Ed Wade drives their incompetence runs together and is what has driven this boat into the abyss. I have never said Ed Wade deserves to be absolved of all blame. I have just been trying to to get it across to you the Ed is not solely to blame for this disaster as you seem to make it in all of posts on here. Ed and Drayton BOTH share the blame in this mess not just Ed and Ed alone. your sheer hatred for Ed Wade is unbelievable. You need to realize that this is just a game and something no matter how much we want things to change we have NO control over it and never will.You make assumptions about Ed Wade and his competence but non of us truly know what takes place in the Astros’ on a day to day basis and havent been privy to ANY conversations between Drayton and his management team(s).
You seriously need to relax as nobody on here has attacked you and your writing seems to give the feeling to me that you believe others and myself are attacking you even though its just a simple matter of people seeing things from a different perspective than yourself whether it’s from our life experiences, age, education, or business experience nobody knows for sure. That’s all this is. It’s a difference of opinion and it happens all the time here so just relax and realize that the prospect of Ed Wade leaving this franchise after the season is ridiculously high. Id would be shocked if Ed makes it through regime change thats about to come to the Astros. And trust you wont be the only one excited over his departure.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 14, 2011 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with some of your points (winning a championship can’t be measure with WAR…)

I don’t think this article was intended as a comprehensive defense as Ed Wade. Just a snapshot analysis of his trade history. It gives us a better idea of how the Keppinger/Pence/Bourn trades might work out.

I think we can agree that Wade has been a decent trader, decent drafter, but more often than not poor at gauging value on the free agent market and/or signing contract extensions.

by jmike on Aug 12, 2011 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions

In retrospect, choosing Bill Hall over Lance Berkman

for about the same money seems outrageously stupid. (assumingof course this was an either/or choice, which I sorta doubt _ the choices seems to be Berkman or Brett Wallace and his potential future).

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 12, 2011 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions

JMike is right above. I really wasn’t trying or intending to defend Ed Wade with this article.

There are tons of different ways to measure trades, and when you look at them that way I’m sure you will get different results. I just decided to look at them from a WAR perspective to see what the results would be and this is the way they turned out.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 7:11 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Berkman cost the Cardinals about $8 million which is more than twice as much as Bill Hall.

by clack on Aug 12, 2011 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, didn’t really see the Bill Hall over Lance Berkman comparison. We had a first baseman, but they wanted more power over Kelly at second.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 8:29 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Kepp not kelly

by conroestro on Aug 13, 2011 1:50 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

And hes worth EVERY cent of that 8 mill.

Icstill cant believe that people bash Berkman. 2010 was an abberration on his otherwise stellar HOF worthy career. Wade f***ed him over by not signing him again, and Berkman wanted too. We should be so lucky to get a player of Berkman’s caliber for the next 10, 15 years?

We treated the guy like shit, and now he comes here and says “F*** you Ed Wade” and hits bombs off us, and I root like hell for him. This team is horrendous, and kbou10 is absolutely right as exciting as it is to see (some) of our prospects do well, they’re just that – prospects. Ed Wade cannot be defended, because in the end most of you would take almost every other single GM in the game over Wade (besides maybe Kenny Williams…)

The bottom line : 38-80. Thirty-eight and EIGHTY.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 12, 2011 11:11 PM CDT up reply actions

He was a lazy and out of shape and only got into playing shape when he realized

that nobody including the NYY and Astros didnt want him back. I have sympathy for someone like him who gave and just went through the motions.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions

Just so y'all know

Jim Crane has reportedly told Bud Selig that he wants the ’Stros to stay in the NL Central

by astros21 on Aug 12, 2011 3:32 PM CDT reply actions

I'm copping out

too soon to tell, I’ll be back in 10 years

by AstroB on Aug 12, 2011 4:34 PM CDT reply actions

Excellent excellent article

and some excellent comments agreeing and disagreeing.

My quick observations:

1. Not easily considered are the opportunity costs- Wade was criticized for trading Oswalt to the Phillies without talking to other teams; wasn’t there also the same questions about his trade of Bourn?

2. I was also very excited that I could stare at the Nestea girl’s midriff while I reflected on the anaylsis.

3. At minimum the trades give us reason to hold out hope for the future. – Paredes for example.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Aug 12, 2011 7:04 PM CDT reply actions

Re:

1) I don’t think we need to consider extraneous opportunity costs. The opportunity costs are what the players who left produced and what the amount of salary taken on or lost on average results in.
2) Totally agreed.
3) Totally agreed.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 12, 2011 7:34 PM CDT up reply actions

Hinze with another single

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:07 PM CDT reply actions

N.Johnson 2B

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:12 PM CDT reply actions

Nash GR 2B

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:19 PM CDT reply actions

Kwaz single

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:20 PM CDT reply actions

Wierzbicki HR

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:20 PM CDT reply actions

Duffy single

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:20 PM CDT reply actions

Heath single

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:25 PM CDT reply actions

Heath is starting to best up

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 8:36 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

and heat up too

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Damn misspelled that one. Heat up is what I was going for.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 8:39 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

lol... figured you did

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Just noticed that Jose Thompson is in CC lineup tonight too

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:32 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah, I think him and Bailey got moved up. That’s what showstopper said anyways.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 8:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

they did and both are starting. both hitless so far

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions

Wonder why Bailey over Wates.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 8:43 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

where would he play when you have 5 Tool TJ and Gaston both who play CF?

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Plus Barnes

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:54 PM CDT up reply actions

Guess your right.

by conroestro on Aug 12, 2011 9:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Maybe he gets promoted before next season as I could see Barnes back in

along with one of Gaston or Steele.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:04 PM CDT up reply actions

Adam Bailey RBI 2B

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 8:54 PM CDT reply actions

Jose Thompson BB

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:00 PM CDT reply actions

Wikoff draws bases loaded walk

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:05 PM CDT reply actions

Ed Wade still sucks.

He’s just not good. He can’t be. It’s not possible!

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Aug 12, 2011 9:05 PM CDT reply actions

lol

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:06 PM CDT up reply actions

B.Wallace 3-3 all singles of course

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:09 PM CDT reply actions

Unless Wallace is hitting HRs,

I couldn’t care less about what he does at AAA.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Aug 12, 2011 9:11 PM CDT up reply actions

same here but some folks might wanna know

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Goebbert 2-3 2B 1RBI

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:09 PM CDT reply actions

Can someone here explain why Bailey was promoted to CC over Wates?

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Aug 12, 2011 9:11 PM CDT reply actions

stacked with CFers in CC

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:12 PM CDT up reply actions

Can

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Aug 12, 2011 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions

*Can't Wates play some LF?

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Aug 12, 2011 11:48 PM CDT up reply actions

Well with Gaston,Steele,Bailey,Barnes, and trying to get everyone playing time

would be very difficult especially with all the recent injuries at other positions.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 13, 2011 12:30 AM CDT up reply actions

Harrell 6IP 10H 1R 1E 0BB 4K still in top 7th

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 12, 2011 9:15 PM CDT reply actions

I really liked the Article

After reviewing most of these trades, I don’t think Ed Wade is a bad GM in the trade department as he is in signing of free agents. The Oswalt trade was one of necessity as he was a disgruntled player that wanted to play for a contender and was a clubhouse cancer on his contract year, so all the prospects they got were good additions over him even if it cost them a ace.

by dasox313 on Aug 13, 2011 1:06 AM CDT reply actions

Trade Wandy. Can we still trade him if he passes through waivers?

by PeteyNhtown on Aug 13, 2011 5:16 AM CDT reply actions

I like Wandy too. I’m just sayin….

by PeteyNhtown on Aug 13, 2011 5:25 AM CDT up reply actions

We can still trade him if he passes through waivers. I think that maybe they trade him in the offseason, but there is still a chance that they could trade him now. I just hope that if they trade him that they eat some if the contract and try to get prospects, and that its not just a salary dump. Otherwise I would rather the Astros just keep him. I read the Fangraphs article that Timmy linked the other day, and they seemed to think that the Astros would let him go for nothing just to get out from under his contract instead of pulling him back off of waivers. I hope this is not true. Wandy has value to us. He is still a very solid pitcher. His contract is fair also, he has about as good of a chance as being productive for the rest of his contract as he does being unproductive. He relies on a curveball and placement. That doesn’t fade as much as a 95-97 mph fastball.

by conroestro on Aug 13, 2011 10:13 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I’m with you. I’d rather keep Wandy rather than trade him for nothing, but I’m in favor of trading him if the Astros could get some quality prospects in return.

by PeteyNhtown on Aug 13, 2011 2:11 PM CDT up reply actions

I'll never understand

why we gave up on Paulino. He had a similar year to Bud Norris last year. He was still young.

by panamamyers on Aug 13, 2011 10:34 AM CDT reply actions

I don't want to critique this because this was really well done

But seeing a surplus value (in terms of value of player vs their payout) would be interesting. For example, we paid Randy Wolf some $5 million for his production while the Padres paid Roenicke next to nothing for his which sheds a different light on the deal.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 13, 2011 10:46 AM CDT reply actions

Let’s get back to the larger point and why this type of analysis is so useless. A lot of people seem to think that visiting a player’s Fangraphs page makes them an expert. WAR, UZR, FIP, etc. are all gospel to pseudo-statisticians who do not have the wherewithal to question anything. I’m not saying they are useless metrics, but they are counter-productive to those who do not fully understand them.

Let’s say Michael Bourn does an excellent job with Atlanta this season and next. We’ll say he puts up a WAR of about 6 in a year and 2 months and does a good job for them in the postseason. Now let’s say 3 of the 4 guys acquired in the Bourn trade all turn into below average major leaguers. Say they accumulate 1 WAR each per season for 3 years before the Astros non-tender them before their arbitration hearings. They will have accumulated 9 WAR to Bourn’s 6. They will have done so without a single guy having an average or above average major league season. Yet 3 years from now, conroestro can come back and write about how Ed Wade really won the Bourn trade while Schafer, Ober, and Clemens successfully turned a 65 win Astros team into a 68 win Astros team.

The truth is that you pay more for win number 90 than you do for win number 70. The truth is that surface level WAR analysis is always going to favor quantity over quality. The truth is that you if you adjust the replacement level threshold to the average major leaguer threshold, things will start to get ugly for Ed Wade.

The prospects for established major leaguer trade is going to favor the team receiving the prospects about 80% of the time in WAR analysis. This is even though less than half the time, the team trading for the established major leaguer regrets the deal.

A lot of people are missing the forest through the trees. The job of the general manager is to put together a roster given his resources. That’s trades, free agency, waiver claims, and correctly distributing your own players within the organization. The Wallace and Happ decision not only cost the team Oswalt, but also the opportunity cost of bringing back Berkman. Happ has been the worst starting pitcher in the major leagues (but he has 0.1 WAR!!!) and Wallace has been an unmitigated disaster since April.

Ed Wade has acquired approximately 46 relief prospects and relievers in the past 4 years, but his bullpen is still horseshit. According to this kind of analysis, the relievers can hide behind their mediocre FIPs and accumulate WAR and someone will try to argue that the EDR trade was a win.

The Astros still don’t have a 3b in the organization. They were a Jason Castro injury away from trotting out Humberto Quintero and Carlos Corporan as their catchers. They have 34 mediocre middle relief prospects, but no 3b, no CF, and no C. How can you possibly argue that even given the constraints, Ed Wade has done a good job?

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 3 recs

Berkman was not productive last year. Its easy to look at what he’s doing now and say that Wade screwed up, but Berkman was not that player last year. Had he not been traded the Astros would not have picked up his option. Berkman publicly said last year that if his option wasn’t picked up then he would probably not resign with the Astros. I’m sure he would have backed off from that stance, but you can never know that for sure. So there was a chance that Berkman would have walked and the Astros not receive any compensation. The Berkman trade had to happen.

Wallace had a solid minor league track record as a hitter, and the Astros were hoping his power would translate. It hasn’t yet, and measuring Berkman against Wallace right now looks astronimcally bad, but its too early to give up on Wallace.

As far as Happ goes I was not happy that they got him last year. I actually didn’t like the Roy Oswalt trade and don’t think the Astros got enough for him at all. That wasn’t my purpose when writing this though. I was strictly looking at it from a WAR perspective. Happ can still be a serviceable 4th or 5th starter, and Wallace can still be a serviceable first baseman. Villar may or may not ever make it to the majors. So if all of these guys turn into serviceable major leaguers does that make it a solid trade for the Astros even though they lost 2 years of their ace when they weren’t competing anyways. I think it does, you may disagree and you may be right. Not saying the way I think is right its just my opinion.

As far as the Bourn trade goes, there was alot of risk involved in that trade as well, and I don’t believe Wade got enough for him either, but the guys he got as a whole could possibly provide more value to the team than the 1 1/2 years that Michael Bourn would have. If so does that mean the Astros won that trade. Again, I would say yes and you would say no.

I know that looking at these trades from a WAR perspective is flawed to say the least. I just did it to see what the outcome would be and this is what I come up with. At the very least it provided a decent discussion topic I guess.

by conroestro on Aug 13, 2011 12:30 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Fair enough. I don’t really disagree with a whole lot you say here. I also re-read my posts and realized they came across a little more abusive than I really intended.

I am discussing the Berkman decision this past offseason more than I am talking about the Berkman trade. Houston was Berkman’s first choice this offseason. Ed Wade told him to get lost.

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 12:34 PM CDT up reply actions

No problem. It was a good discussion. I like it.

by conroestro on Aug 13, 2011 12:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, man ...

… you sound like a total dueschebag in your comments and it’s hard to get offended or pissed off reading them. No offense or anything ;) Agree with the WAR thing – certainly not my favorite stat. However, using fangraphs doesn’t make you a “pseudo-expert”. It’s all about how you use the information. Fangraphs just spits out numbers – it’s what you as an individual do with those numbers and how you analyze them that makes the difference. Personally, I really enjoy pitch-type data for pitchers and hitters alike. I think it shows opposing team strategies for some players and also can reveal what’s going on below the surface when a player slumps or hits a hot streak.

by super_shredder on Aug 13, 2011 1:38 PM CDT up reply actions

Yea don’t get me wrong, I visit Fangraphs a lot. There is a lot of good stuff on there. I don’t like the idea of a super-stat in general (which is what I think WAR tries to be) and I think a lot of the statistical information on there is mindless and needless quantification for the sake of quantification.

If you want to use WAR as a starting point for analysis, fine. WAR lacks context and I think the proper context should be explained.

by kb10bu on Aug 13, 2011 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions

I didn’t really want to use WAR as the starting place for analysis. When looking at pitchers I like to look at the full body of work like K/9, BB/9, LOB%, WHIP, groundball tendencies, BABIP, etc etc. Hitters K%, BB%, BABIP, OBP, OPS, WOBA, etc etc.

The problem was is that for some reason I wanted to look at every trade (I’m sure I missed some), since Wade has been GM. It got way to time consuming looking at all of the stats this way and comparing them, so I took the easy way out and used your superstat WAR because it was the easiest way to compare all 19 (20 if you count Gose and Wallace separate) trades.

Maybe I will try to compare the big trades Ed made (Valverde, Lidge, Tejada, Oswalt) using more telling stats later and see what I come up with. It was just to hard to do looking at every trade.

by conroestro on Aug 13, 2011 4:15 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Your 3rd and 4th paragraph is the exact philosophy that has kept the Pit Pirates cost-effective and losers for 19 years.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Aug 14, 2011 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree. Again I wasn’t trying to justify the trades, or pat Wade on the back, just trying to look at them from a WAR perspective.

If the Astros want to avoid becoming the Pirates they are going to have to spend in free agency when they have a solid core to build around, and then a solid pipeline of talent coming up through the system.

by conroestro on Aug 14, 2011 1:29 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

I think the Pirates have shown that it is difficult to build a solid core unless ownership is willing to sustain higher budget levels. The Pirates had good young players come up to the majors, but there was always a timing problem in trying to get a solid core together at the same time. As soon as the young players gained experience, they were approaching higher arbitration pay seasons and the Pirates would trade them and start the cycle over again. It is difficult to get the peak years of the young players to coincide with this type of cycle.

by clack on Aug 14, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions

I’ve always liked what the Rockies do, by gambling on some of their younger players and extending them before they get expensive. It is a gamble, but the Ubaldo Jimenez contract was very favorable. Its a gamble but that is a way to keep a young core together at a reasonable cost.

by conroestro on Aug 14, 2011 2:29 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

the big picture is important

Despite the harsh rhetoric, I can’t really argue with this…this post should be appended to the article to effectively temper its conclusions. Ed Wade really has not done a very good job overall, and I think his FA signings ( the stuff that should be easiest to evaluate ) prove he lacks some basic judgment in running a franchise

by isaacjunk on Aug 13, 2011 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions

Rec. Rec. Rec.

I couldn’t have said it better myself.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 13, 2011 3:24 PM CDT up reply actions

Im talking about kb10bu by the way.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 13, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions

the main takeaway: quanity vs. quality

Many great points above, but the most important point of why the entire analysis in the article is fatally flawed is that the one about how quantity is almost always favored over quality in this type of analysis. Just to clarify why, maybe this was obvious, but the main reason why 5 +2 WAR players is not as good as one +6 WAR player is that you can only put 9 guys on the field at once.

by isaacjunk on Aug 18, 2011 5:05 PM CDT up reply actions

Very true.

by conroestro on Aug 19, 2011 8:51 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Trade Ed Wade

by firemills on Aug 13, 2011 12:54 PM CDT reply actions

by PeteyNhtown on Aug 13, 2011 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions

If you want to judge Wade on a results based system, in the above case WAR, I say go with the results of this team. The 11’ Astros are one of the worst teams ever. It will take many positive decisions or lucky outcomes in general to make this team respectable again. That is the basis of my disdain for Wdae, uncle D, everyone Astro right now. They screwed this team soo bad. The Astros are soo bad.

So if the Astros are this bad, doesn’t it make the people that let this happen very bad?

The Tejada trade was horrible because of the intent. He thought he was one over-the-hill SS away from being a CHAMPION. He was so wrong. Tejada had degenerating numbers and range for several years in a row. Not to mention salary. This really made me question his ability to determine skill-level, value, and decline in players.

The guy is bad. A player tried to kill him, he talks and acts weird, and he doesn’t have a hard time lying right to fans faces.
I could go on and on but I won’t because it wouldn’t be healthy for me or you.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Aug 13, 2011 1:40 PM CDT reply actions

Thanks for stopping by Shamus. Not a pleasure as usual.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 13, 2011 10:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Why not a pleasure

Is it the opinion of the content or the writing of the content that is unpleasant?

I guess I am asking if you disagree with my view and the way I write about the Astros, or have you decided to not like me as a poster?

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Aug 14, 2011 3:14 PM CDT up reply actions

I, for one, probably lean towards your view point than the other side. I think he’s pretty bad, and I can’t give him much credit for all of the little moves he’s made. Doesn’t every GM get a few of those right? I think when you look at him compared to the last GM he looks better, but you can’t compare to the lowest common denominator. I’ll be taking a couple of victory shots the day he’s gone.

by MadMartygan on Aug 14, 2011 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Lol. I dont hate you or anyone else on here and never could. It was a joke Shamus.

I agree with some if not most your argument but in Ed Wade’s defense (Cant’ believe Im doing it again though) a GM is only able to do what the owner has told him to do and what the owner wants done. Now I have never worked for Drayton but have some individuals who have and they have agreed that he is a big time micro-manager to the umpteenth degree. If he is then some of these decisions will make more sense if not than Ed Wade definitely deserves a lot more blame. Of course we’ll never know for sure who is truly responsible for all of these moves as neither Drayton or Wade speak openly to the public.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 14, 2011 9:02 PM CDT up reply actions

that's good

Trust me. I wish I could write positive posts.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Aug 14, 2011 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions

lol. would be nice if we could all post something positive on this season

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 14, 2011 9:54 PM CDT up reply actions

lol “he talks and acts weird”

by Brad E on Aug 14, 2011 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions

that was a little much. It was mean. All I can say is him and I couldn’t be friends.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Aug 14, 2011 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions

No, I think it is a completely reasonable observation. The first time I saw video of Ed Wade, I thought, how does this guy get a job ANYWHERE, much less a job that everyone wants.

by Brad E on Aug 14, 2011 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions

Very good article. Ed Wade took a difficult work to rebuild Astros farm and for me he worked very well with the budget Uncle McLane give him. I was discredited with the trade of Tejada and Valverde, but now I’m blessing Ed Wade for those trades; Patton and Gutierrez doesn’t made nothing at MLB. level No one of our top prospect that was trade in Wade period made a good work in MLB. I think Wade is better in rebuilding period than in the normal couse.

by El_tanque on Aug 14, 2011 2:09 PM CDT reply actions

At this point in the history of the franchise ...

… I don’t really care how good or bad Wade has performed as GM. There is no more purpose to evaluating his work. The bottom line is this team is at the lowest point it has ever been at since their existence and we need to rebuild from the ground up. That means not just rebuilding the players on the field but the majority of the staff and front office, as well. We need a clean slate and keeping the Philly Phanatic (Wade) around doesn’t accomplish that.

by super_shredder on Aug 15, 2011 12:14 PM CDT reply actions

Im almost positive that Crane would bring in new staff and a new GM, which means Wade is probably gone.

As for the Philly fanatic comment, I think Wade has done okay with his trades with the Phillies. I don’t care which team he trades with as long as we are getting quality in return, and so far I think that has been the case.

by conroestro on Aug 15, 2011 1:09 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

Honestly ...

… I agree with you about the Phillies thing – I even think it’s a good thing because it makes them a more willing trade partner and we always come out with at least a fair shake from those trades. The comment was meant more in jest.

by super_shredder on Aug 15, 2011 1:26 PM CDT up reply actions

Gotcha. Makes sense.

by conroestro on Aug 15, 2011 3:41 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions

forgot one

I was just thinking yesterday about catchers, and the Pudge Rodriguez trade came to mind. I completely forgot about that one, but it would probably fall in the loss column using the criteria used in the article. Matt Nevarez and Jose Vallejo don’t look like they are going to see any majors time.

by conroestro on Aug 21, 2011 9:32 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

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