My new Astros top 20 list

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 3:23 PM CDT

This was really a brutal exercise. I honestly thought the depth of this system was better than it is, but there are a whole bunch of low end sleeper pitchers (mostly international types, and some from the 2010 and 2011 draft) that could really emerge in the next couple years. 5 of the 6 prospects the Astros got back from Philly and Atlanta are on my list. I left J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve, and Jimmy Paredes off the list as I assume they will lose eligibility soon. The only unsigned draft pick I included was Springer because I feel very confident he will sign. Armstrong would have made the list as well, but his odds of signing are so up in the air, I though it was best to just leave him off for now.

1. SP Jarred Cosart B+

2. 1B Jonathan Singleton B+

3. OF George Springer B+

4. SP Mike Foltynewicz B-

5. OF Ariel Ovando B-

6. SS Jonathan Villar B-

7. 2B/OF Delino DeShields B-

8. SP Paul Clemens B-

9. SP Adrian Houser B-

10. SP Brett Oberholtzer C+/B-

11. OF Austin Wates C+/B-

12. SS Jiovanni Mier C+

13. 1B Kody Hinze C+

14. SP Tanner Bushue C+

15. SP Vincent Velasquez C+

16. RP Josh Zeid C+

17. 1B/OF Telvin Nash C/C+

18. C/1B Chris Wallace C/C+

19. SP Ross Seaton C

20. 3B Mike Kvasnicka C

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Comments

What is this based on?

Just curious. What criteria did you look at? Have you scouted these players? Thanks.

by CRPerry13 on Aug 10, 2011 3:30 PM CDT reply actions

No I haven't scouted these players personally.

I’ve seen some videos on quite a few of them though, and read scouting reports as well. I would say in general I care quite a bit about what I consider key underlying stats (K%, BB%, ISOP/HR%), and any depressingly deficient rate really concerns me. I care more about scouting reports for pitchers than I do for hitters. Upside matters to me, but floor is also quite important. I didn’t put Keuchel on the list for just about all those reasons.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 3:36 PM CDT up reply actions

I am not claiming to be an expert

But I think it is a good exercise for people that talk a lot about prospects.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 3:43 PM CDT up reply actions

Wasn't questioning the exercise...just was wondering.

by CRPerry13 on Aug 10, 2011 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Top 10 is solid for sure. The second half I would re-arrange and maybe replace a few. But, that’s going to be on any list when you start getting into C and C+ guys.

I’m higher on Seaton than Bushue. Bushue’s low strikeout rate, high flyball rate, and injury history is worrisome. He’s young enough to figure it out, but reports on velocity are much worse than I expected. Curious as to where you’d put Jose Cisnero. He’d definitely make my list.

by Subber10 on Aug 10, 2011 3:35 PM CDT reply actions

Cisnero

I mean, he’s a tough call for me. I do like him, but I still need to see more. I wouldn’t have a problem with him sneaking on the list instead of Kvasnicka and maybe Seaton, but I’m just not too thrilled about him (nor those 2). I agree that maybe after Hinze, there should be more C/C+ types than straight C+s. I was feeling a bit of optimism for Bushue and Velasquez. But after 13 (for me), there doesn’t appear to be anyone that looks like too impressive a prospect, whether looking at upside or floor, athough Zeid has a good chance to be a decent RP.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions

I have him higher because he has some good upside with his fastball. I’d put him ahead of Seaton and Bushue. I’d have Velasquez lower just because of the lack of track record because of the injury, but it’s a good spot for him because of his upside, I’m a big Velasquez fan.

by Subber10 on Aug 10, 2011 3:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Bushue

Is really projectable and he is still pretty young. He isn’t performing particularly well, or developing all that well from a scouting perspective, but I am not ready to give up on him. I’d say for me, I rank them in the order I’d like to actually keep them around.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 3:49 PM CDT up reply actions

Thats why I have Seaton above Bushue. Reports are much stronger, track history is better, and he’s more advanced. Also, his stuff plays better in the pen than Bushue would so he has an additional fall back.

He is still projectable and has time, but the window is getting smaller. I see MoR upside at best.

by Subber10 on Aug 10, 2011 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Oh agreed

But the odds of either Bushue or Seaton or Velasquez and especially Cisnero actually becoming a #3 starter in the majors is pretty low. The biggest difference between Bushue and Seaton is that Bushue has a much better chance to actually improve his stuff. Seaton has struggled working with what he probably can’t improve on (stuff wise). Both will have an opportunity to get better, and Seaton might have a better chance of making it as a back end starter (I really wouldn’t bet on either making it at all as a MLB starter), but I just like the physical potential of Bushue. It is optimistic giving him a straight C+ as it is with Velasquez, but at this point I just believe in them more than I do Seaton, and way more than a guy like Cisnero, who is certainly impressing in Lancaster.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 4:04 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree that Bushue has more room to improve his stuff, but I don’t see his stuff becoming on par with where Seaton is now. And, I don’t think Seaton’s stuff is maxed out. He’s still pretty thin. I think he could improve his stuff some. Remember he’s just 21 still. Just one year and several months older than Bushue. Seaton is more filled out but his frame is acceptable to more mass than Bushue.

by Subber10 on Aug 10, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions

What’s your take on Velasquez getting injured so quickly in his pitching career? Last year was his first full year as a pitcher, correct?

by MadMartygan on Aug 10, 2011 5:21 PM CDT up reply actions

well

He was a pitcher earlier, but had a stress fracture in his elbow so became a position player. Still, he is sort of new to pitching in a way, and no, it isn’t a good sign. Tommy John surgery isn’t a death nail though. And I don’t know about the after-effects of the stress fracture from early in high school. He is an upside guy, and I don’t mind gambling on injured players. He too, like Bushue might be more of a C/C+, but I like both so I gave them the nod.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions

is it a good thing

we haven’t heard much about Velasquez since surgery?

by AstroB on Aug 11, 2011 9:30 AM CDT up reply actions

…that’s hard to say since we don’t know what specific recovery schedule he was placed on…

by clack on Aug 11, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions

BTW, it’s Adrian Houser.

How much of Villar’s recent surge factored into his straight B- rating instead of a C+/B-?

by Subber10 on Aug 10, 2011 3:48 PM CDT reply actions

Oh oops. I'll fix Houser.

Villar’s AA production was a huge factor for me. Same with Hinze. I mean they are viewed pretty differently by scouts, and for good reason, but I felt like neither proved much of anything before. And even a smallish sample size can force my hand a bit. Villar’s K rate is still pretty troubling, but he is young and has time to get that under control, but his power in CC has been really surprising to me. He will never be a top of the order type in my opinion, but his chances of being and everyday starter have definitely gone up in the last 2-3 months.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 3:53 PM CDT up reply actions

I like the list - order and grades

There is a big drop off between the B+ and B- guys, as you have reflected. And I agree that it gets trickier after the top 13.

I agree with putting Velasquez around where you did. Same with Seaton.

The only one I’d probably remove is Zeid. Part of it is my bias against relievers. I’d put in Davidson, Hallock, Cisnero, Lee, Meredith, or even J. Meyer or Pena instead. Or maybe a lower level guy with higher upside, just for fun.

I always like these as food for thought. It will be fun to hear the podcast that covers this ground.

by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 10, 2011 5:31 PM CDT reply actions

Zeid

He wasn’t a pure career minor league relief pitcher, so he is in better shape than some others. Granted, I do view him as pretty much a pure RP now, but that is true of 90% of the relievers in the majors, so it isn’t that bad. He is pretty much major league ready as a reliever, and MIGHT be our best RP sooner than later, without a trade or FA signing. Melancon is decent, but nothing special. I don’t think Zeid really has closer stuff, but he’s got to be our best RP prospect, and he has a better chance to make the majors and have an impact than quite a few of the prospects I ranked ahead of him.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions

Nice list.

This is pretty close to how I would rank ’em. The grades seem about right too.

Probably the most important differences for me would be the following:

1. Cosart would be third among the big three prospects for me. My concerns about his mechanics and health history make me peg him as having a lower floor than the other two guys.

2. Villar would be fourth ahead of Folty and Ovando and would be strong B-/borderline grade B (I know you’ve never been high on him though so your ranking doesn’t surprise me).

3. DeShields and Houser would be C+/borderline B- and rank in the 10/11 range.

4. Austin Wates would be a full B- and rank 9th just above DeShields.

Obviously none of these are big differences, so we’re not far apart here.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 10, 2011 6:55 PM CDT reply actions

Yeah

I don’t have much of dispute with any of those differences. I’ve moved up on Villar a bit, so I’d expect people who had him higher before to have moved him up as well, still higher than me. The others are all reasonable as well. Would you have Cosart outside the top 50? Because I have the two hitters toward the back end of my top 50.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 10, 2011 7:04 PM CDT up reply actions

I might.

I tend to be a bit more concerned with mechanics and injury history so I can definitely see putting him outside the top 50. He’s got to be right there though, his stuff is just that good.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 10, 2011 7:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Paul Clemens Vincent Velasquez

He is looking pretty good so far two solid outings. I liked the numbers that Velasquez put up last year and if he can recover from the injury and continue those numbers i think he could be really good down the road

by 31blur114 on Aug 11, 2011 1:28 AM CDT reply actions

nice list

I think you have to ha e Goebbert in the top 20. He has a similar ceiling to the guys you have after Hinze, but is closer to realizing his potential. It’s funny because I left him off my top 25 list at first too.

by Brad E on Aug 11, 2011 9:02 AM CDT via mobile reply actions

I could maybe see Goebbert

Taking that 20th spot from Kvasnicka. Seems to be a pretty good bet to be a 4th OF type and that can be pretty useful. He’s defense has been at least good with respect to errors and OF assists. Not sure about his range. He’d even have a shot to be a weak everyday OF maybe, if his AA/AAA numbers can translate to the majors.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 11, 2011 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, he has a good range of skills

Honestly, he reminds me a lot of Bogusevic, except obviously quite a bit younger and without having to transition far too late to being a position player.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 11, 2011 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions

I like the comparison to an extent. I think Bogey is a little better defensively. Better arm is the main thing but that Bogey seems to at least be able to handle CF in smaller parks.

by Subber10 on Aug 11, 2011 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions

JD or Altuve not on the list?

I guess since theyre in the majors…

I found this EXCELLENT article on Jose Bautista – read the whole thing – and it gets me dreaming about JD’s potential.

http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201106/number-crusher-how-blue-jays-slugger-jose-bautista-experimented-his-way-greatness

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 11, 2011 9:31 AM CDT reply actions

Off topic a bit, and in the “for what it’s worth” category, this article claims that Bautista may have benefited from illegal sign stealing. The evidence is set out in the article, including the notion that Bautista and other Blue Jays’ hitters have hit a lot more HRs than they should at home. I’m not sure that I buy the argument, but it’s out there and probably will keep getting media attention. I am skeptical of the statistical claim that the alleged sign stealing primarily helps them hit HRs.

by clack on Aug 11, 2011 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions

I don't buy the sign stealing business

Other than just some random frustrated players claiming they’ve heard something, it’s all just a bunch of rumors to me.

by Patrick Harrel on Aug 11, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions

I love how players complain about one player/team stealing signs when its been a part

of the game since its inception.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Aug 11, 2011 12:39 PM CDT up reply actions

The statistical evidence is more interesting to me than the he said/she said claims. I haven’t read the underlying analysis by Colin Wyers at Baseball Prospectus which supposedly supports the claim. As I said, I don’t see an obvious reason why the statistical evidence would only show up for HRs.

by clack on Aug 11, 2011 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions

I saw that article.

The home/road splits aren’t that far apart. Also, I was watching baseball tonight and they went over it and questioned how it could be done in that field. They basically said it would be very very hard to do, and pretty much dismissed it.

I think the article really does a good job of highlighting Bautista’s change in his swing mechanics completely. Sometimes it takes a good hitting coach, Hopefully we’re seeing the same power from JD now that he’s adjusted his swing a bit too – well, maybe not the SAME, but JD should hit a damn good amount of HR’s.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 11, 2011 12:32 PM CDT up reply actions

Scouts have always said that Bautista has near-80 power. Nobody's ever said that about Martinez.

by CRPerry13 on Aug 11, 2011 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions

Good list.

I’d switch Villar and Folty.

Cosart below Singleton.

I don’t think Seaton or Kvas are in the top 30, much less top 20. I’d probably put in Nash and Keuchel instead.

Grades appear accurate.

by Snake Diggity on Aug 11, 2011 11:13 AM CDT reply actions

Nash

Is on the list.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 11, 2011 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions

My bad. Cisnero then.

by Snake Diggity on Aug 11, 2011 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions

Seaton

How about Seaton? He was drafted as one of the top sleepers in that 2008 draft, and a lot of guys said he will be better than Lyles, but afther 3 full seasons, he still a normal guy in Texas League. Sorry for my English, I’m Astros fan from Brazil.

by El_tanque on Aug 14, 2011 1:55 PM CDT reply actions

He is still young for the Texas League. So, there is still time for him to put it together. He has been inconsistent this year in AA. A couple of good performances will be followed by a bad performance.

by clack on Aug 14, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions

To be fair, it’s more like a couple good starts are followed by four disaster starts. But hey, his last two have been spectacular, so maybe it’s a sign he’s putting things together.

Right now, his pattern of statistical failure is too great for me to put him in the top 20 anymore. However, his stuff is reportedly still pretty good so he could regain stock pretty rapidly with a full season of sustained success.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 15, 2011 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions

I just think the Astros organization

Doesn’t have too many great options to put in the back end of the top 20. I put Kvasnicka there, but probably would put Goebbert 20th instead. Cisnero has been brought up a few times, but he really doesn’t seem like a top 20 guy to me. He may not be far behind some others, but having him in there is a stretch for me. Keuchel some people like, but his stuff is so far below average and he’s had a real tough time in AAA (small sample), which doesn’t help his case with me. Davidson, Hallock, Lee, Meredith, J. Meyer and Pena were brought up as well. I don’t know. Putting unproven recent draft picks that were taken outside the top few rounds without huge bonuses just seems pointless. As would putting someone like Quevedo or Yuri Perez or Jose Perdomo. Everyone that could be put on over Seaton just seems like such a long shot and haven’t really distinguished themselves very much.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 15, 2011 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions

Yeah, I don’t have a problem putting Seaton in the top 20. I like Tropeano and Sosa more than Seaton, but you’re right there aren’t any really strong candidates to replace him. I don’t think this makes the Astros a weak farm system. I think this system actually has decent depth.

Hopefully the Astros sign Flamion, Armstrong, or Stubblefield and Seaton can work his way back into the top 20 next year :)

by Brad E on Aug 15, 2011 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions

Get to add Santana now

Fits somewhere in the 7-12 range, IMO.

by pacbellpilgrim on Aug 15, 2011 12:43 PM CDT reply actions

Agreed

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Aug 15, 2011 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions

Yeah

That sounds about right. I don’t want to edit the post though. Santana would certainly make the list, as would Armstrong if he signs. I’d have to do a bit of research to see where I’d rank him, but it would almost certainly be in that range, probably the better end of it.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 15, 2011 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions

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