Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

My Assessment of the Current Astros and where I would look for improvement


First off long post so don't spam me please as new to board.

Current Team - I am scared to think who next years all-star will be as we currently do not have someone who makes me say WOW.  But we do have players who hopefully can be building blocks for chemistry purposes

Pitchers - Lyles, Norris and Melancon - outside of these guys I do not think anyone on this team is really someone you can look at to rally this team into good standing.  Sorry guys I like Wandy but he is a #3 starter at best and a #4 or #5 on a championship team.  So IMO Wandy and Myers are just guys we use to eat innings until prospects in the minors develope.

Infield - Not a single player here is really a set in stone MLB player.  Wallace can turn it around and I am not including Altuve in this section as it is too early to project him as everyday player just yet

Outfield - Lee is only valuable to us if some team actually was stupid enough to trade for him or if we could use him as a DH.  Borgeious brings energy but has had trouble staying healthy.  I really think Bourgeious looks like Brian Hunter as he has good speed and can bring some energy with his speed but truthfully the defense is not that great considering how fast he is.

Farm system - This is where the Astros have to improve if they have any chance of regaining their consistent play year in and out like the team of the 90s.  We have got to get 4-5 hitters on our team and at least 6 pitchers (including bullpen) on our MLB team from the farm system to produce at an above average play for us to compete again.  Then we feel out the needs in FA hopefully.  So here is a list of current prospects I have in a top 10 after looking over players and researching.  Altuve and Martinex will be on this list as they just got called up and not known how MLB will treat them also Springer would be on this list if and when he signs

1.  Cosart - My projection is that he should become a #2-4 starter based off his stuff.  He does have stuff to become an ace but that is if the stars allign perfectly and he stays healthy but I see him more of middle rotation and possible frontline pitcher for us

2.  Johnathan Singleton - The kid is still very young but he has the body and the swing to develop into a strong 30 HR guy.  I project him to be a possible All-star 1B for us down the road if he progresses well but he could just turn into a journeyman 1B if he can not grasps his talents.  IMO Biggest Boom or Bust risk

3.  Johnathan Villar - This one and Altuve who I have at #4 are interchangeable IMO.  Villar has the defensive skills to be as good as Adam Everett but he also has faults in his hitting.  The good thing is that he just turned 20 and has some time to develop his hitting.  But you just can't teach his skills on the defensive side so if he doesn't develop great hitting he will have to be on a team with good offense.  I see him up by the start of 2013 or Sept 2013 season.

4.  Jose Altuve - Maybe its because of his height but he reminds me a lot of David Eckstein with more pop in his bat.  This guy really has the potential to be what Biggio was for us at 2B for all those years.  I project him to cement his place on the MLB and stay for good after his recent call up.  I mean who else do you want playing 2B

5.  J.D. Martinez - Probably higher than most would put him but I just can't overlook how well he has hit every minor league team he has played for.  The problem I have with Martinez is where will he play.  I would say LF is where you want him as he doesn't have the defensive skills for RF but Lee is stuck there especially if you have Wallace at 1B keeping Lee at LF.  But the dude can hit.  I see him as a 4th OF truthfully but if he hits in MLB then he becomes a main LF

6.  Delino Deshields - He has the athleticism to be a good leadoff man for the Astros by 2014.  But it is going to be interesting to see where exactly he will play if other prospects like Altuve or Martinez pan out and succeed at the MLB level.  IMO Deshields is meant for 2B or LF if he played OF.  I see him as having a lot of skillset as Altuve has but not yet develop the hitting.  

7.  Mike Foltynewicz - I project him to be a lot like Bud Norris in that he has real good stuff that if he harnesses it he would be a #2 or #3 starter but I will project him to be a #3-5 starter for the Astros by 2013 or 2014.  How soon he joins the MLB will be based on his progression but I think 2014 is most likely with a 2013 call up.

8.  Paul Clemens - This is another one of the new guys we just got in trade so I am anxious to see how he does in our system.  But from what I can gather it appears that his ceiling is a #3 starter but probably a #4 or #5 starter.  It will all depend on how well he can control his pitches as he does have good stuff which means he can gain in value with better control.  But if he doesn't then being a bullpen pitcher might be where he is destined.  2013 will be his season to join the club IMO unless he beats out others for a 2012 spot.

9. Austin Wates - Another OF prospect who has hit for good average but not that much pop in his bat.  Based off what he has showed it looks like he might be a good choice to be a 4th OF for the Astros.  Of course that can change based off how and what more he continues to develop.  But I see him as a 4th OF in 2013 and possibly a starter if he gets more pop and keeps the AVG going

10. Tanner Bashue - He is still very raw but he has the pitches to be a #2 starter and even a #1 if he gets control of all his pitches and stays injury free so that he can develop best.  I look for him to compete in 2013 but truthfully 2014 or even 2015 being his year to make big strides


LASTLY - If I was GM here is what I do.  I don't wast money on FA unless they are only stop gaps until a prospect is ready so I only spend FA money on a 3B unless Parades can stay on the team but sorry I am not a big fan of Parades.  Also only spend money on Starting pitching if you want a 5th starter to hold for a year until a prospect can step up.  But really I see most FA money needing to be spent on the bullpen in terms of pitching.  So without wasting my money on FA I use the money elsewhere to sign POWER POWER and MORE POWER into our farm system.  We do not have players with pop in their bat and unless you include Cosart we really do not have many power arms in the farm system.  So with what we have now I say we need to spend 1-2 years focusing on adding Power Piching and Power hitting into our system

 

Sorry I am bored and stuck without anything to watch on TV but I figured I would give an assessment after trades of what my opinion is of current and future of Astros

Comment 12 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Cosart is a hands down #1 based on pure "stuff"

Infact he has some of the best stuff in all of the minor leagues. Thats why hes ranked so high. So if he puts it together, he easily has the highest ceiling of any of our players. Bar none.

by YohannDookeyblue on Aug 1, 2011 1:33 AM CDT reply actions  

i really really really hope he stays healthy

Ive seen pitchers like that stay healthy but alot have failed. (The inverted W)

Singlteton auto number 1 hitting prospect?

If i were Arnold Rothstein id pay Ryan Braun all the money he
wants to stop going on homer streaks against the poor Astros....

am i the only one?

by ccislanders on Aug 1, 2011 1:48 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yes his delivery worries me due to injury concerns but his stuff if he stays healthy could rival the aces of other teams easily.

Singleton has to be our number 1 hitting prospect because he has the best combination of AVG and Power. No one else in our Farm system has that and very few even have some power. All we got IMO is players who are AVG hitters

Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were the last of a dying breed of players who would live and die for their team

by Diomedes05 on Aug 1, 2011 3:46 AM CDT reply actions  

DDJ sort of scares me.

I can see Altuve succeeding in MLB and DDJ slightly improving and making it up to AAA where he manages to put together a .280 BA and .300 OBP and our fantastic FO will say, “Hey he was a first rounder and he has tools, tools, and more tools! He’s a god damn mechanic.” And then they will trade Altuve (who will be hitting like .350 or something) for peanuts and install DDJ who promptly starts striking our 40% of the time……wait. Is it a guarantee that we will get a new front office? Do I not have to worry about this? Don’t get me wrong I’m hoping DDJ can put up .290/.380/.450 or so with 50 steals and 15 homers…But I don’t trust tools unless one of them is a hit tool.

by ntn on Aug 1, 2011 4:16 AM CDT reply actions  

Of course, that’s a best case scenario for Altuve and exaggerated for effect.

by ntn on Aug 1, 2011 4:29 AM CDT up reply actions  

I assume when you say DDJ you mean Desheilds and I completely agree with you. He really looks like one of those BOOM or BUST players. His ceiling is why i have him rated that high but he really has a low floor IMO

Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were the last of a dying breed of players who would live and die for their team

by Diomedes05 on Aug 1, 2011 5:16 AM CDT up reply actions  

Villar

I’m particularly down on him, but that is extremely optimistic. Saying he has that defensive potential is true, but you have to realize he is currently a bad defender. He just has the skills that people think and hope will eventually translate into being a good defender. He might have a 5% chance to be an elite defender in the bigs (most people have a 0% chance). He probably has a 25% chance to be at least average. And maybe a 40-50% chance to be a really inadequate defensive shortstop, where even with a great bat, he’d have to be moved off the position.

His upside is quite good, but people keep forgetting that his defensive floor is really really low – not major league quality. He is an athlete, not a good defensive player at this point.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 1, 2011 7:56 AM CDT reply actions  

Maybe I am wrong but all the scouting reports I have read show his Defense as being Very Good if not Great

Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were the last of a dying breed of players who would live and die for their team

by Diomedes05 on Aug 1, 2011 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

I don't think you've read that

They talk about him having defensive potential. He is still very very raw defensively.

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 1, 2011 9:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Folty has Ace upside because of his stuff, in fact his stuff projects to be better than Bud since he has a similar FB but has chance for two breaking balls, (curve above average to plus potential, and slider, average to above average potential) and a plus changeup. His command projects to be much better than Budly. Mid rotation is more likely than this Ace/frontline starter but other than Cosart, his stuff is better than anyone else in the system. Expecting him to be ready by 2014 or call-up in 2013 is EXTREMELY optimistic. He’s a cold weather pitcher and they take a long time to develop, and that would put him on the Jordan Lyles fast track. Folty is pretty likely to repeat Lexington or go to either Lancaster (groundball tendencies make him a candidate to perform in Lancaster) or CC (too aggressive given his performance this season).

Bushue is where you get too optimistic. Ace upside? Stuff to be an ace? Do you realize scouts have him sitting soemtime anywhere from 85-87 in some games and other 87-90? Thats not off the slow stadium gun either. Thats legitimate scout radar gun. As of last year, he was at times only throwing two different pitches in his game because the others weren’t developed enough. His upside is a #3. He’ll be lucky to reach that.

by Subber10 on Aug 1, 2011 9:39 AM CDT reply actions  

Current Team:

Altuve and Martinez should be solid for awhile. Maybe not all-stars, but solid regulars. Bourgeois is a very good bench OF at worst. Paredes will be at worst a solid bench IF. Downs is a solid bench player. Norris and Lyles will be #4 guys at worst, maybe more. Aneury has a place. Melancon and Lopez are good setup men; Melancon may be a good enough closer to stick there. Carpenter, EDR, Escalona, and F Rod all have good enough #s to stick for now.

Farm/DL:

Castro still profiles as a starter. Wallace seems to be doing well, so could (at-worst) be a good offensive backup catcher.

Out of the Wallace, Hinze, Singleton, Nash group, there should be at least 1 above average starter at 1B after Lee leaves.

I still think Villar and Mier will be starting caliber SS’s, but not until 2013 at the earliest. Although with how Wade has been acting lately, Villar may be a September callup.

I’d like to see Wallace move back to 3B where his lack of power wouldn’t be such a hinderance. CJ may rebound, but it looks like the org may have given up on him. Paredes could surprise, but at this point it’d be difficult to pencil him in 4 years from now. Meyer, Kvasnicka et. al have not impressed.

Springer and Ovando both profile as above average starting RF, but they are both pretty far away (2014). There’s a TON of OF depth in full-season ball, but nobody is screaming star. Shuck, Durango, Goebbert, Gaston, Steele, Barnes, Wates, Bailey, Adamson, etc. are all on track for the bigs, but may all end up as bench guys.

Schafer should get a good chance in CF.

Cosart and Folty have ace potential. There probably more than 15 arms that profile as middle-rotation guys. There’s a ton of bullpen depth.

I think for next year’s roster, SS and RF will be question marks. Barmes may be re-signed, and Wade will probably try and snag a veteran OF on the cheap as a stop gap. A rotation of Wandy, Norris, Lyles, Myers and whoever wins the 5th spot (there are loads of guys who you could pencil in) should mean an improved record over this season, even with a more anemic offense and a younger roster. The GM will have Wandy, Myers, Barmes, the RF, Lyon, Lee, and Q to shop at next year’s deadline, which should end the sell-off and mark the beginning of the upturn.

The farm’s philosophy starting with next year’s draft should be to focus less on depth and more on high ceiling players.

by Snake Diggity on Aug 1, 2011 10:43 AM CDT reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the Crawfishboxes, the SBNation blog for the Houston Astros.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Chimp_small
The Importance of George Springer

Recent FanPosts

Small
Oswalt in 2012
Small
Heck and Co. - Your time is up.
Small
Santana and a bold new top 10, etc..
Astros_retro_logo1_small
Lance Berkman with possible torn ACL...
Astros_retro_logo1_small
Quasi update on Lucas Giolito for draft
100_1519_small
Good News
Small
Thinking about where the top 2012 draftees will be ranked for 2013
Astros_small
Most valuable building blocks
Nsapcs13_large_small
Minor League Open Thread

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

TCB Tweets!

    

Current Series

3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium

Fri 05/25 WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers
LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2)
3 - 1 win
Sat 05/26 WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1)
3 - 6 loss

Houston Astros
@ Los Angeles Dodgers

Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT
Dodger Stadium

J.A. Happ vs Chris Capuano

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75.

Complete Coverage >

NL Central Standings

W L PCT GB STRK
Cincinnati 26 20 .565 0 Won 1
St. Louis 25 22 .531 1.5 Lost 3
Houston 22 24 .478 4 Lost 1
Pittsburgh 22 24 .478 4 Won 2
Milwaukee 19 27 .413 7 Lost 1
Chicago 15 31 .326 11 Lost 11

(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)

Yahoo_full_count

Managing Editors

Tcb_icon_small Timothy De Block

Old_school_dome_logo_small David Coleman

Editors

Nsapcs13_large_small clack

H_astros_small Subber10

Astrobritrs2_small AstroB

Small conroestro

Small CRPerry13