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A Look Into the Future: Trades


The trade deadline nears and the Astros are sinking into the abyss:  the time for the future seems to be now.  A fire sale?  A continuation of a rebuild?  What ever its called here are some ideas that would work for the future of the Astros and could be good deals for the others involved:

Michael Bourn to Atlanta for Randall Delgado (RHP: SP) and Nate McClouth (OF) - The Braves would recieve the CF and leadoff hitter that they need to compete with the Phillies and the Astros would recieve a future starter that could fit in a young rotation.  McClouth would be a throw in for the Braves to free up money for future investments.

Wandy Rodriguez to New York Yankees for Delin Betances (RHP: SP)  and Austin Romine (C) - Wandy should be able to get the Astros a good set of prospects and this is what it should look like.  Betances could fit in a young rotation while Romine could man the plate along with Castro.  These are two of the Yankees top 10 prospects.

Jeff Keppinger and Brett Meyers to Detroit for Casey Crosby (LHP: SP) and Francisco Martinez (3B) - The Tigers need a consistent second baseman and the Astros should throw in Meyers in any deal to a team that is in need of some pitching help, although Meyers would not be a teams first choice but with a shrewd deal the Astros could come out on top of this deal.  The Astros in return would get two top 10 prospects but neither one on a fast track, Casey Crosby is even coming off of Tommy John but both are in AA right now.

Minor Deal:  Drew Locke/Collin DeLome to the Angels for Andrew Romine (SS) - Locke and Delome are sitting in AAA and will stay there so why not try to move one or the  other and get someone that may be able to play for the big club soon enough.

Even with these moves this year is a wash but it is a move in the right direction and what the Astros should be looking at is the future and the upcoming seasons.  Looking at a lineup for next year that looks like such:

1. 2B Jose Altuve

2. 1B Brett Wallace

3. CF Hunter Pence

4. LF Carlos Lee

5. RF J.D. Martinez

6. 3B Chris Johnson

7. SS Andrew Romine

8. C Jason Castro/Austin Romine

9. SP Bud Norris, Jordan Lyles, Randall Delgado, Delin Betances, J.A. Happ

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Comments

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not realistic

if you took out the secondary players in each deal, it would still be quite unrealistic. we’ve seen many of these posts where people name their dream trade scenarios. i’d like to see some that are actually realistic…ones where the Astros might be considered to not be the huge winners.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 8, 2011 3:01 PM CDT reply actions  

realistic like...

myers to NYY for banuelos, betances, and montero?

by strophi on Jul 8, 2011 3:12 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the Bourn trade is VERY realistic.

Why Not? Remember the trade has to be good for both sides. We’re not looking to rob them blind and they shouldn’t be looking to rip us off. An all star Elite defense and speed CF for a somewhat unproven top 50 prospect, and a swap for a average, below average CF is atleast what we should expect for Bourn.

Now Wandy, I think we could get one but not both – especially from the Yankees. BUT, and this is a big one, NYY might get desperate – everyone around them have upgraded – the Red Sox got a P or hitter, Rays did something. Now they want Wandy, in that situation, yes, we could possibly get something like that.

The others? I agree completely unrealistic.

by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 8, 2011 3:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think that the Bourn one is realistic too.

by PeteyNhtown on Jul 8, 2011 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions  

For a Braves trade...

Maybe targeting J.J. Hoover and Carlos Perez would be good and realistic. Still doubt they’d do that for Bourn, but maybe Pence. Maybe we could tweak it a bit as well.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 8, 2011 3:22 PM CDT reply actions  

Even diehard, knowledgeable Braves fans have come on this board and said Minor or Delgado

For Bourn is a great trade for both sides. They Want Bourn, They understand what he brings to the team.

I dont know why you’re aiming so low. They have a surplus of pitching and need offense and OBP and Bourn brings that. They’re willing to part with one of those guys. Whether its Beachy, Minor, Delgado, or Viscaino.

I just hope we act on it and not sit around twiddling our thumbs waiting for the Phillies to call.

by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 8, 2011 3:40 PM CDT reply actions  

Well we'll see what happens

I 100% guarantee we will get nearly max prospect value in return for these guys, if we trade them at all. Some people will probably be disappointed, but I won’t be. I want to get some help, shed some salary, get better draft picks, and start moving in the right direction. I’d be happy to land some of these pie-in-the-sky dream scenarios like landing randall delgado by just giving up bourn, but i don’t see that happening.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 8, 2011 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions  

I hope so too.

Anything that will make the Astros better in the long run is what Im shooting for.

by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 9, 2011 2:40 AM CDT up reply actions  

not every braves fan

I probably wouldnt do that for bourn, not because he isnt worth it, but because we already have that kind of a player in Jordan Schafer. I know I know, everyone thinks he sucks….he doesn’t, it two or three years he will be every bit as good as bourn and better (he has more power). He has the speed and range to become a gold glove center fielder and has started to show it as well as swing the bat better. He’s not worrying so much about the power and just looking to get on base, as a leadoff man should. Im not saying he’s there yet, itll take him a while, but id rather have patience then trade delgado for a player we already have. Schafer is young and hasnt had time to develope yet, he’ll come around, you’ll see.

Now as for Hunter Pence, I can assure you the Braves would unload for this guy. He has hit 25 plus homers in all but his rookie campaign, his slugging percentage is over .480 for his career, he’s got a strong arm and would be a solid defender in right field, and flat out, this dude would make us world series favorites. Pence is only 28 years old, he is having he best year of his short career, which to me means it will only get BETTER! We have yet to see the best from this kid, he’d be a perfect 3 spot hitter. Trade delgado, minor and mclouth for him and im sure the astros would atleast have to consider it. This guy is the closest thing to a player I’d be okay trading just about any prospect for, I’d do it for Kemp too but I’d rather Pence and here’s why:

1) They are posting similar numbers! Kemp is batting over .300, with 20+ homers and 60+ RBIs. Pence is batting over .320, with 10 homers and 60+ RBIs. The numbers there are not that different at all. The main reason behind the homer difference in my opinion is the unfriendly Astros ballpark. But even still, those are good ass numbers.
2) Kemp is a Scott Boras agent….Pence is NOT! Pence has made under 5 million dollars….for his career! Obviously that price will go up, but not to what Kemp’s would or to what it would if he was represented by Boras. Jones is going to retire after this season, he’s my all time favorite player, but I know its coming. This would ease the pain, plus we would be getting 16 mil off the books which would easily lock Pence up for two years, we could offer him a 5 years deal no problem.

The reasons are endless for use getting Pence over Bourn. A week ago, I’d probably say Bourn over Pence as well. But since Chipper went down, we have to find an outfielder with power, schafer and bourn together in the line up doesnt work. Prado will move to third and Heyward to left, the braves are looking for a right handed batter, that will come cheap, produce, and get us past the phils…That spells Pence! The left fielders out there are not that great and Fredi is confident in Heyward being versatile enough to play left and I think he could do it with ease. Also, if schafer stops hitting again..we could plop Prado into the leadoff spot, he proved very useful there last year, Imagine this line-up:

1) Schafer
2) Prado
3) Pence
4) McCann
5) Uggla( he’s coming around)
6) Freeman
7) Heyward
8) Gonzalez

Do you see any easy outs aside from schafer and gonzalez who will probably get better as the season goes. That line-up would be hands down the best in baseball, for a long time, and one of the cheapest.
With schafer, i can see a .280 hitter averaging 30+ stolen bases a year.
With Prado, a .320 hitter, with some power who can play almost any position.
With Pence, an all-star who hits over .300, with 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs
With McCann, an all-star who hits over .300, with 25+ homers and 90+ RBIs
With Uggla, eventually an all-star again, hitting .260 with 30-40 homers and 100+ RBIs
With Freeman, (who is a ROOKIE), a future all-star who hits .275 with 25+ homers and 100+ RBIs.. (thats a Bobby Cox projection that I believe is spot on)
With Heyward, well it appears he may not be the player we though he’d be, i personally think he needs to adjust his swing a bit, but even still hes a guy who can produce .280 with 20+ homers and 80+ RBIs.
With Gonzalez, I dont think he’ll ever be that 30 homer guy again, not with this team, but as a 8 hole hitter, him batting .260 with 20+ homers and 70+ RBIs, id love that.

Obviously these numbers are not for sure, that is just what these players are 100% capable of. Not many teams can say they have a line up capable of that. To be honest, I probably understated McCanns numbers since he’d be protected in the line up by Pence and Uggla.

And if chipper returns in time for a playoff run, imagine this:

1) Prado
2) Gonzalez
3) Pence
4) Jones
5) McCann
6) Uggla
7) Freeman
8) Heyward

Holy s**t thats amazing, thats a team poised for a deeeep playoff run. And Ive only started to harp on the offense, our pitching would be more than enough to do it alone but with power like this..itd be a walk in the park

I hope to the high heavens that this deal gets done, whatever it takes aside from Jurrgens, Hanson, and Freeman, id be willing to throw in a package of any other prospects. Lets see it Braves, be bold.

by bravesfanldh on Jul 10, 2011 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions  

I really don’t like the Schafer- Bourn comparison. Just because they are fast centerfielders without power doesn’t make them equal. Schafer has never even been an average hitter in AAA.

by MadMartygan on Jul 10, 2011 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

really?

Bourn is a career .267 hitter…..its not hard to reach that mark, give schafer time he’ll get there. Bourn hit .175, .277, .229 in his first three seasons and now look, you all love him. I never said schafer IS as good as Bourn, I said he probably will be a Bourn-type player. All bourn does productively is steal bases. He strikes out a good bit, doesnt walk much and has absolutely no power. It wont be hard for Schafer to get to that level. Bourn is a Scott Boras agent, and gets undeserved praise from you people, you say he warrants a Mike Minor or Randell Delgado type prospect…yeah right?? Keep dreaming guys, we’ll give you McClouth and at best B grade prospect, get the hopes of rebuilding for the future by trading Bourn out of your heads.
You cannot deny it is time for yall to rebuild, no one can. The Braves have the guys to help yall do it, but we wont give them up for Bourn. Dangle Pence to us and they’ll give an offer you can’t refuse, he is in my opinion one of the most valuable players in the league, produces good and will come cheap, thats a guy that will give you players you can rebuild around and he’s also a guy we need in our line up, not Bourn, we have Schafer, Heyward, and McClouth all capable of playing center and Bourn doesn’t offer up much more offensively than those guys, at least not enough for us to give up top tier prospects. I know its tough, but yall gotta part ways with Pence, its about the only way for yall to drastically improve, you’ve got to give some to get some, and we’d give for him.

by bravesfanldh on Jul 10, 2011 2:54 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah really.

Really? Are you using the 11 plate appearances in 2006 as his first season. I don’t know if Jordan Schafer is going to be good or bad in the future. He isn’t good now and he doesn’t have good triple A numbers to back up anything. He doesn’t have a lot of games at either level, so who knows, maybe he will be Bourn-like some day. Right now you guys are in the playoff hunt. You don’t want to waste that. You never know if those youngsters pan out or get injured. We are not overrating Bourn. He’s sixth among mlb centerfielders in war. He’d be second behind only Brian McCann in OBP if he were on the braves. He walks at an 8.1% clip, which is not bad at all. It takes like 2 extra seconds to look stuff like this up, instead of just saying random things.

by MadMartygan on Jul 10, 2011 3:26 PM CDT up reply actions  

Maybe not realist, but may I suggest Keppinger to the Pirates for OF prospect Robbie Grossman—straight up.

by PeteyNhtown on Jul 8, 2011 4:18 PM CDT reply actions  

The function of the post isn’t to be what “should” happen and to be the absolute realistic trade scenarios the Astros must do, but as “ideas” for what could be possible. All trades and transactions must go through back and forths with multiple ideas.
Some of these scenarios like Bourn to Atlanta is realistic and the others could happen with a few changes within the trades or some manuvering by other clubs in certain races.
What are your ideas?

by rlrafuse on Jul 8, 2011 5:37 PM CDT reply actions  

well for one

hoover and perez for bourn, even though i still doubt the braves bite. i’m sure i could find a reasonable trade opportunity with other organizations as well.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 8, 2011 6:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Here is some info that may be surprising for some but puts some of these trades in a different light: From Steve Campbell:
By FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement measure, Michael Bourn is 13th — three ahead of Lance Berkman, six ahead of Hunter Pence.
By Baseball-Reference measure, Astros CF Michael Bourn is sixth among NL players in Wins Above Replacement, Hunter Pence 11th.

by rlrafuse on Jul 9, 2011 10:33 AM CDT reply actions  

Well reports look bad for us with trades

other gms saying that we are going to be difficult to trade with bc people like ed wade are trying to win the trades by alot so they can save their jobs. We neef tallent and thats all that matters to me

Firesale! Everyone must go!

by astrosfan1989 on Jul 9, 2011 2:49 PM CDT reply actions  

I’d take those reports with a grain of salt. The big time contending teams, like the Yankees, use the media to try and beat down the seller teams so that they can get a low ball deal. What’s wrong with trying to win trades? That just means you try to get the maximum return. Teams like the Yankees would like to get away with giving the Astros a few AAAA players.

by clack on Jul 9, 2011 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions  

Agree

Houston is in a high leverage situation. None of their valuable trade chips are free agents after this season, so if they don’t get an offer they feel comfy with, they can try again next year. While it will annoy me greatly, I won’t hate on Wade if few (or no) deals are made this deadline. Especially since I view the injury/performance risks for those players is relatively low.

by Snake Diggity on Jul 9, 2011 6:25 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

we expected some statistically regression after the season was over last year.

Follow my ramblings on Twitter .

by Timothy De Block on Jul 10, 2011 1:29 PM CDT up reply actions  

yea but not this bad

Myers trade value has almost diminished completely

Firesale! Everyone must go!

by astrosfan1989 on Jul 10, 2011 4:07 PM CDT up reply actions  

I still think we may see some improvement from Myers this season. I just wish it would occur soon and before the trade deadline.

by clack on Jul 10, 2011 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions  

I prey it does amd we can ditch that contact

Its deals like that that has people making fun of us

Firesale! Everyone must go!

by astrosfan1989 on Jul 11, 2011 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions  

I'm up for trading Myers to Cleveland for a mid-level prospect

just to get out from under his contract.

Realistically I think we get better returns by trading Wandy in the NL.

Not sold on Austin Romine. He’s only in the top 100 because he’s a catcher. I prefer the Colorado scenario where we pick up Tim Wheeler and a pitching prospect, and take something other than McLouth off the Braves for Bourn.

Sending Pence to the Red Sox would possibly require a multi-team trade to find a close to major league ready outfielder we could put in RF to replace Pence.

by AstroB on Jul 10, 2011 5:37 AM CDT reply actions  

My thing with bourn to Atlanta is if we were to take mclouth off their hands maybe we can snag 2 prospects in the deal

And i mean 2 good ones
I have made the point to talk about how deep they are at pitching esp with the fact that their ML rotation is built mostly of young pitchers already that will block some of their top prospects for years. They have the trading peices and should be willing to part with some

I think Pence to Boston makes alot of since if we trade him because of a few things. Yes some of their top prospects are gone but in a three team deal we could prob get some really good prospects and Boston will need a guy like pence cause they dont need a super star but the money he will prob start making will be like nothing to him. Just think how good he could be at number 5 or 6 in that lineup

Firesale! Everyone must go!

by astrosfan1989 on Jul 10, 2011 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yuni B has been looking bad in the field and at the plate – he had some crucial fails at both in the last week. I wonder if Melvin would go for Barmes. Probably not. I vote yes (from the department of who cares).

"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane

by ol Pete on Jul 10, 2011 2:32 PM CDT reply actions  

Barmes would definitely be a defensive upgrade for y’all. His bat also appears to be coming around. Is there any guys in the system that you could think of that would matchup fair in a trade of Barmes for both teams.

by conroestro on Jul 11, 2011 1:06 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Tough question – despite the popular notion that the system is empty, there are a number of guys who will probably play in the bigs or at least have a good shot.

What’s a fair price, a good reliever or a mid-level starter who looks to be middle of the rotation? They’ve got those. I wonder if there is someone Heck covets..

"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane

by ol Pete on Jul 11, 2011 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

What’s the current standing of Gamel in the Brewers’ system? Is he viewed at their top trading trip or has his luster worn off? (I’m not asking that for a Barmes’ trade, just asking, in general.)

by clack on Jul 11, 2011 6:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

I think the Astros are so far out of contention that the usual concerns about trading within the division are less of a problem.

by clack on Jul 12, 2011 7:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

I get the impression that he’s penciled in for 1st next season. Supposedly he’s pretty good over there.

"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane

by ol Pete on Jul 11, 2011 9:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

Astros get:

Minor, Vizcaino, Hoover, Gearrin, My. Jones, and Bethancourt

Braves get

Pence and Keppinger

whaddya think?

Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.

by Wren_and_Stimpy on Jul 14, 2011 12:15 AM CDT reply actions  

Seems like way way too much

I’d love it of course. I think if you take Minor out, it would still be a steal for the Astros, and still a longshot to get the Braves to agree.

by auclairkeithbc on Jul 14, 2011 12:19 PM CDT up reply actions  

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