Astros Trade Scenarios: Hunter Pence To The Braves
by David Coleman on Jul 6, 2011 1:23 PM CDT
in Houston Astros Trade Rumors
Email
PrintAnother week, another trade scenario to kick around for the Houston Astros. This time, we're trying to spin Hunter Pence off to the Atlanta Braves.
There have been no definitive rumors linking the two teams, but there is ample evidence that a match can be found. First of all, MLB Trade Rumors does not list the Braves as one of the teams looking for an upgrade in right field, but they do list them under the center field-needy teams. In fact, the entire Braves outfield could use an upgrade as Hunter Pence would be a substantial move up from all of Martin Prado,Jordan Schaefer, Nate McLouth and even Jason Heyward.
The Braves would probably not move Heyward off of right field even if they acquired Pence, so he'd have to play center or left, with Schaefer moving to center. I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade, but Pence has played center before and wouldn't have quite as difficult an area to cover as he did in MMP. This trade scenario ultimately will come down to two things: can the Braves justify adding an impact bat to possibly get to the World Series and can the Astros part with untouchable Pence?
This is about as improbable a scenario as you'll find, but for the sake of this article, we'll break down whether the Braves need Pence and if any of those trades make sense...
Again, let's use the Trade Value Calculator to see what Pence's value might be. As a refresher, the TVC takes Pence's projected fWAR totals over the three seasons he's under team control. Since his salary can't be known yet for 2012 and 2013, we assume that his salary will be 60 percent and 80 percent of his total value.
By looking at that fWAR projection and multiplying that by the cost of a win on the free agent market, we get his value based on performance. Subtract his current and future salaries from that, and you'll get his surplus value, which is what we use to calculate these trade scenarios.
Based on Pence's stats through half this season, I've got him down for 5.0 fWAR (even if that may be a little high), then 4.0 for 2012 and 3.5 for 2013. Add to that a projected Type B free agency at the end of those three years, and Pence's surplus value is at $28.9 million.
Now, for the prospects. Let's rule out a couple prospects right away. Houston will not be picking up Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Freddie Freeman or Craig Kimbrel in any trade with Atlanta. That's four of the Braves top 10 prospects, courtesy of Baseball America. So, first off, we're dealing from a position of weakness with the Braves system.
From rags to riches, we move from the Detroit farm system to the Braves, who ranked second in BA's preseason organizational rankings. Even excluding those four players above, there are some intriguing prospects listed below. Here's my short list of the top guys the Astros might target.
1) Mike Minor, LHP - A Top 50 pitching prospect, Minor was a favorite to win a spot in this Braves rotation, but was beaten out in spring training by Beachy (who has posted a 3.32 ERA this season). Minor hasn't done poorly in the meantime, with solid strikeout numbers, a sterling ERA and good control. Plus, he's generating plenty of ground balls, which is always a plus. At this point, he'd be ready to step in immediately to Houston's rotation beside Jordan Lyles.
2) Randall Delgado, RHP - Another Top 50 pitching prospect, Delgado is on the same level as Minor on most lists. Some favor the lefty and some favor the slightly less developed Delgado. At the same time, Delgado has been just as good this season, striking out 82 in 90 innings over 16 starts. He's also younger than Minor (21 to 23) and would also fit into a rotation with Lyles, though probably not as quickly as Minor.
3) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP - Third player, third pitcher. That's where Atlanta is really deep, which complements Houston's system nicely, since the Astros lack pitching depth but are pretty deep in position players. Acquired in the Javier Vazquez trade, Vizcaino was promoted to Double-A this season and has acquitted himself well so far. The only knock on him is that his ground ball rate isn't very good, but he's a hard thrower who could always move into the bullpen if necessary.
4) Tyler Pastornicky, SS - The 14th best prospect in the Braves system, Pastornicky fits a lot of what the Astros seem to look for in a prospect. He's got speed up the middle, a little pop and should stick at shortstop. The only problem here is that Atlanta acquired Pastornicky last season in the deal with the Blue Jays for Alex Gonzalez and is their most advanced shortstop prospect.
5) Edward Salcedo, 3B - Recently moved to third base, Salcedo provides a power/speed combination that should be pretty attractive to Houston. He's not a very good base stealer yet, but he tries hard. He's also a toolsy guy with a big frame, much like Jimmy Paredes, so you know the Astros scouts will like him. He's currently in the South Atlantic League, so he'd be pretty far off from reaching the majors.
6) J.J. Hoover, RHP - Another good pitching prospect, who's done very well, bouncing from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Double-A. Hoover strikes out about one per inning with control on par with Minor and gives up a surprisingly few number of homers, even though he's a pretty extreme fly ball pitcher.
A quick refresher on the value of prospects shows us that a Top 50 pitcher is worth 15.9 million, a Top 100 pitcher is worth 9.8 million, a Grade B pitcher is worth 7.3 million, a Grade C+ pitcher 23 or older is worth 1.5 million and a Grade C hitter under 22 is worth 0.7 million. That means Delgado and Minor would cost 15.9 million, Vizcaino is worth 9.8 million, Pastornicky is worth 0.7 million, Salcedo is worth 5.5 million and Hoover is worth 7.3 million.
It seems likely that the Astros would be asked to take back one of the Braves major leaguers at the same time as they traded for Pence. Seeing as Schaefer doesn't really make much money, that leaves Nate McLouth coming back in any deal. So, consider that in the next few scenarios.
Trade Scenario 1: Braves trade McLouth, Mike Minor, Tyler Pastornicky and Edward Salcedo for Hunter Pence - This trade brings two high-level talents into the Houston system in Minor and Salcedo. They're both at different levels of development, but it gives Houston both immediate return and a shot at future growth, much like Wade got in the Roy Oswalt deal. It also works well value-wise, as the prospects will be around $20 million, plus whatever McLouth provides. It's probably underselling Pence a bit, but it'd still be a pretty good deal.
Trade Scenario 2: Braves trade McLouth, Randall Delgado, Salcedo and J.J. Hoover for Hunter Pence - In this trade, we're swapping out Delgado for Minor and adding in Hoover, who I like a lot. It gives Houston more value than they got in the first scenario, but it's probably more than the Braves would be willing to part with.
Trade Scenario 3: Braves trade McLouth, Delgado, Minor, Pastornicky and Hoover for Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn - Here's where things get interesting. We didn't add Michael Bourn into the original equation, but he probably makes more sense for the Braves than anyone. Adding in both players allows Houston to get both Top 50 pitchers (while still leaving Julio Teheran for the Braves), plus adding another guy who would rocket up Houston's system in Hoover. It guts the current Houston roster, but adds three pitchers who could join Lyles in a potential playoff rotation some day, plus a more valuable version of Angel Sanchez.
As I said at the beginning of this article, I don't find any of these scenarios terribly plausible, but there is enough here that Houston could actually get a good return for Pence. Minor and Hoover would be the prizes of these trades and McLouth would at least provide a stopgap in right until some of the young players are ready to contribute.
What do you think? Which trade works best for you? Do you see the Braves making a move for Pence?
96 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Getting both Delgado and Vizcaino plus one lower tier position prospect
Seems like a nice middle ground between all of these deals. I would like that kind of trade a lot because it would really reinforce our already-deep double-A roster, and provide a nice, big wave of talent hitting the majors at roughly the same time.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Erm, let me note
That I’m viewing Mike Minor as having higher value than Delgado or Vizcaino by a pretty significant amount. I see Minor by himself as almost being worth both of them combined. He’s simply proven a lot more and advanced himself beyond the time when he was a similarly-rated prospect, in my opinion.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Yeah I agree. Mike Minor has way too much potential value to risk trading someone proven like Hunter Pence for. Likely we might get a lower tier B prospect and a C, but if Minor never pans out, the trade would look ridiculous, given the amount of time Hunter is still under team control.
Do you think Atlanta would make Brandon Beachy a centerpiece with some other decent pieces? Beachy has been a beast in the minors, but seems to be overlooked as someone who can be more than just a 3 or 4 starter.
I’m in favor of keeping Hunter if we sign him somewhat soon and avoid spending upwards of 60 million dollars. He wants to be here long term.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 6, 2011 2:18 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
The Braves would be out of their mind to trade Beachy. They can likely get anyone they need, using unproven minor league guys. Beachy is already a centerpiece of their playoff contender rotation.
Centerpiece of their rotation?
Tell Hanson, Jurrjens, Hudson and Lowe that.
I doubt Beachy even starts a game in the playoffs. I’m guessing Mike Minor would start before him so Atlanta could keep a lineup honest since they are stacked with right handed pitchers.
Beachy’s performance this year is nothing but a successful audition for other teams in potential trades.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 6, 2011 2:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn’t be surprised if Beachy shows some regression of his stellar first 11 starts in the big leagues.
The only reason I mentioned him was because we are likely to get better pieces to go along with Beachy, if say we took a Mike Minor in a deal.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 6, 2011 2:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
What’s he regressing to? His peripherals are awesome and his minor league track record has been good. His ERA is higher than his FIP and xFIP.
Well yeah, very few pitchers in all of baseball can keep putting up numbers like Jurrjens is. He has lowered his walks, while lower his strikeouts. Seems like he is pitching differently than in the past.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 6, 2011 3:08 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I didn’t say he was the only one, but I’d take him over Lowe and Hudson at this point. Beachy has better k numbers as well as FIP and ERA. Plus he’s still only 24 and will be competing with them for quite a bit longer than the other two. Jurrjens weirds me out, so I don’t even know what to think about him. Why would you trade a young guy that’s already killing it in the majors when you have guys that are unproven that could net you the same return?
Because 11 starts doesn’t mean anything as far as the long term. Anyone will tell you Beachy doesn’t profile as a number 2 starter in the long term like Minor. I’m a huge believer in evaluating players through statistics, but this is where statistical analysis can get in the way of rational thinking. 11 starts doesn’t make you a “centerpiece of the playoff rotation” unless the statistics are through the roof.
If his value is really viewed as playoff rotation material in that rotation, then I’ll pass.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 6, 2011 3:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You’re right on 11 starts not being much of a sample size, but his numbers pretty much are through the roof. That system is loaded, but how many are actually going to become impact pitchers? That’s really hard to predict, and if you have a young guy that is already proving himself in the majors, you have to prioritize him.
“I’m in favor of keeping Hunter if we sign him somewhat soon and avoid spending upwards of 60 million dollars. He wants to be here long term.”
What else would you expect Pence to say? Oswalt could say it and not be vilified by the fans because he is in the twilight of his career. For a late twenties player to say he wants to play elsewhere say, “I just don’t like it here”. Then you’re insulting peoples’ homes.
Delgado
I think your undervaluing Delgado here. He was already called up to make a start also. Hes as good if not better pitcher than Minor. Hes ranked 48th by Baseball Amearica in their newley released midseason rankings while Minor was not ranked in the top 50..Arodys Vizcaino was ranked 16th. Being that Delgado was brought up i believe the Braves think hes going to be better than Minor and they would have no problem parting with Minor. I agree with OremLK on the above post
Braves fan:
I have to say that these trade scenarios are well thought out, and truthfully are pretty reasonable.. The only thing I’d say is that Pastornicky and Salcedo are our best middle infield prospects, and we are going to need a short stop as early as next year. Salcedo is projected to move to third, so to be fair, he might be available. However, I don’t see us getting rid of our best guys at short because that’s the only position in the infield we dont have figured out for a long time (C McCann, 1b freeman, 2b uggla, 3B chipper—>prado. That said, do you think you could adjust these proposals to not include pastornicky?
The other thing is that I don’t believe we can take both of these players, and as you note, Bourne is much more valuable to us. It’s really a mess in the outfield. Prado will be back after the allstar break, but chipper will prob have 3-4 weeks off for surgery. That means Prado will be in the infield and left will be available for a month. Truth is though, we don’t want a left fielder that benches prado (like pence), and imagine the mess when Prado has to sit for Chipper, who honestly, isnt as good with the bat anymore as Prado is. This is why I think we don’t upgrade in left.
As far as center goes, Schafer is continuing to give us reason to believe that he can be what we want for a long time. He plays GG defense, is stealing bases at a pace for 40+ in a season, he’s trying not to hit for power, but we know it’s there. Personally, and this is me, I would trade for a center fielder, put Schafer or the new guy in left for a month, then when Prado is back, let Schafer be the 4th OF. Bourne, Schafer and Heyward would turn the outfield into a black hole.
I think Bourn to the Braves would make more sense for the Braves.
Bourn’s value is about 20 MIL if you figure 1.5 WAR at 2.0 MIL for the remainder of ‘11 and 4.5 WAR for 8 MIL in ’12 -
So if you figure Vizcaino is worth about 16 MIL you still have 4 or 5 MIL in value to play with. The Braves would probably place Pastornicky’s value at 5 MIL or greater…Vizcaino or Delgado and Pastornicky would be great for Bourn…
I also like the Braves 2nd round pick from 2008, Zeke Spruill. He is 21 years old in high A. He struggled a little in high A last year, but has rebounded nicely this year. He is a Georgia guy, so the Braves might value him more than some other guys. He would definately help out Lancaster’s rotation and possibly the Hooks
What about Pence for Teheran and Vizcaino?…Would that be a fair deal for both?…Maybe at least for Houston?
Impossible
They won’t give up Teheran at all, let alone both Teheran and Vizcaino for just Pence.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I do think the Braves want either Bourn or Pence
It may be silly but watching Braves telecasts of Astros vs. Braves, it seems like the anouncers were trying to sell these two guys (especially Pence) to the fans. I don’t know why I think that the anouncers are privvy to what the organization’s plans are…That’s just what it felt like watching the games.
Of course, they could just be raving about them because they are fantastic players.
3rd trade scenario is the one I want.
To get Delgado and Minor, along with Pastornicky and Hoover, would be great.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
I wouldn’t really care which scenario worked out, but I would like the inclusion of Minor in any deal. If Minor was obtained then that would make it easier for the Astros to part with Wandy.
If both Bourn and Pence were included in a trade then the Astros should demand a King’s ransom in return.
by conroestro on Jul 6, 2011 2:33 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
In my opinion, all three of these offers seem unrealistic in that the Braves are giving up a LOT for Pence. I think Minor or Delgado plus one of Hoover or Brett Oberholtzer would be more realistic (but I’m no expert, so maybe David’s proposals are closer to reality than mine).
That being said, I would LOVE for us to be able to pull off the third option.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 6, 2011 2:53 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
You do realize that Pence is an AS outfielder still under team control right?
I don’t even know the last time such a deal went down. Everyone loves to daydream about prospects, but at the end of the day, they are just that, prospects. As good as they seem now, maybe only one of MInor, Delgado and Vizcaino ends up being a good MLB SP. One is likely to get hurt and the other just not meet expectations, To only get one of those three would be a serious, and foolish, roll of the dice for the Astros when they are giving up one of the rarest assets in baseball: proven AS-caliber talent still under team control.
Same goes with Bourn. The Astros have all the leverage here as neither play is a FA at the end of the year. There are multiple teams interested in both players and the Astros aren’t in a “trade or get nothing” scenario.
We could definitely use another low floor left handed pitching prospect. J.A. Happ’s struggles this year are concerning. If Wandy is gone then our next best lefty prospect is Keuchel who I like alot, but as clack and others have pointed out he fights an uphill battle because of his lack of velocity. I would love it if the Astros got Minor. I would like to see them trade for as much pitching as possible because the system seems to be void of starting pitching. After Keuchel and possibly XCedeno there are no other promising pitching prospects double-A or higher. (Note that I still like Seaton, but at some point he’s going to have to turn a corner.)
I heard that Uggla guy has been ugly this year, since we are speculating the impossibles I will throw in a Pence and Bourn and Kepp trade for as many pitching prospects and upside infield guys as possible. (This scenario should not be taken seriously.)
by conroestro on Jul 6, 2011 3:17 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
That third option would be unbelievable.
3 pitchers, 1 shortstop, 1 old centerfielder. We would have a solid young group of pitchers, with a solid group of hitters coming up right after them. We’d have a desolate team right after trading Pence & Bourn, but perhaps Martinez could be called up to man right field.
I would pull the trigger on that deal, but honestly, I don’t know if the Braves would want to give up that much.
If the Astros could show any sign of being ahead, rather than being behind the competition, maybe, just maybe the Astros will be good in the future.... Maybe
Nate McLouth is redundant with Luis Durango in AAA
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Jul 6, 2011 3:33 PM CDT reply actions
McLouth would be redundant, but if we have to take on some of Atlanta’s baggage to facilitate a trade, so be it.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 6, 2011 4:02 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Don't like any of the deals...
If we trade Pence I want 2 top 100 prospects… Which would mean 2 of Minor, Delgado and/or Vizcaino….plus at least 1 high upside lower level minor leaguer. It would be a lot for any team, to give up (which is why I don’t see Pence being traded but that’s what Wade should ask for). Plus, I don’t see Pence as a NEEDfor the Braves…just a WANT.
If we trade Pence, i would want something similar to what the Rangers got for Teixeira. That’s probably unreasonable on my part…but I believe its the stance we should take heading into the deadline.
Bourn, on the other hand is probably a need for the Braves and if we could get 1 top 100 prospect (or 1 of their SP’s) it’s worth it.
Yeah, the more I look at it
The more I think I would demand both Delgado and Vizcaino in exchange for just Pence. A future rotation with Norris, Lyles, Vizcaino, and Delgado could be excellent.
It would be a slight overpay on the Braves’ part—both Vizcaino and Delgado are top 50 prospects and probably worth over that $15M mark. But the Astros have the luxury of not having any need to actually trade Pence. There are many teams who would like to have him on their team as well.
So I think we’d want to force any team to overpay, while still listening to offers and trying to drive up the price.
I think the Astros would even want a third piece in the deal, but it could be a much lesser grade C type guy, perhaps a low level one with potential to improve his grade.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Also, let's note
That the Braves have Hanson, Minor, Beachy, and Teheran—they’re going to wind up trading some of these young arms sooner or later and would probably like to do it for a player like Pence.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Definitely. The Braves are so deep in pitching, they have the luxury of being able to part with quality young arms, to the extent that other teams simply can’t.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 6, 2011 4:05 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
but also
because of that and the fact that they have a playoff caliber team right now even with Prado on the dl and Uggla and Heyward struggling (which are bound to rebound) it puts ATL in the drivers seat to only accept a deal they really find favorable
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Great point
I said the some above. Delgado AND Vizcaino or no deal.
MLBTR’s most recent Type A and Type B calculations indicate that Pence is a Type A by a comfortable margin and Bourn is a Type B. Type A compensation for Pence is nothing to sneeze at, though it requires a projection over the next couple of years. In any event, that consideration should add to the value for Pence and Bourn. It also means that value remains for the Astros, even if the Astros keep them until they are free agents.
I think the Pence trade is very unlikely. Reportedly, the Astros’ organization wants to keep Pence as a cornerstone, and he doesn’t really fit the Braves’ outfield, because I doubt that he can play CF at an acceptable level at this point.
A Bourn trade to the Braves seems somewhat more likely.
by clack on Jul 6, 2011 4:20 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
But I would hope the Astros are at least listening and willing to part with Pence if someone wants to overpay.
Unfortunately Bourn does not figure to bring nearly as much in return both because he has one less year left under team control, and because his skillset is not as valued as is Pence’s.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Bourn for Delgado...straight up
It’s a simple trade. The Braves get a quality CFer(which they need), a lead-off hitter, much needed speed and GG defense in exchange for a solid AA arm that still has projection in him. It gives them what they need in the majors while not depleting their minor league SP depth.
The Astros get a high upside arm that immediately becomes their best pitching prospect in the minors….and with Durango, Bourgeois, Shuck and Wates hopefully someone can play a decent CF while we wait for Springer (who hopefully is the answer).
as a braves fan, I'd pull that trigger in a heartbeat
how much does Bourn cost through this year and next?
We will be offloading McLouth as well. I’m curious how their salaries compare
as a braves fan
i can tell you that the braves will not be trading for hunter pence this season.
we have all the corner outfielders we can handle. what we really need is a CF
i wouldn’t rule out it happening this off season if chipper retires though
and in the case of bourne
i think the braves would be weary of trading for a center fielder with low offensive production. we bought high on mclouth back when he hit 20 homers was a gold glove CF and was suppose to steal some bases and committed 2.5 years for him. bourne (though he has less power but much more speed) sadly reminds me of mclouth. plus we really need a RH hitter.
Bourn's value lies primarily in his defense
He’s one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, if not the best. He has a much more consistent track record than McLouth did when the Braves signed him. He produced 4.9 WAR in 2009, 4.8 last season, and is on track for over 5 WAR this year.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
If that is the case
we would have no need for him because that is exactly what Schafer provides, speed and defense with no bat
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Bourn provides a good deal more than Schafer. Bourn would have the 2nd highest OBP on your team.(only counting regulars) I’m not sure who you guys have leading off, but Bourn would be a pretty nice upgrade.
i was replying to him saying
what we would be getting mainly from him was defense and speed, and my response to that was thus that is what we get from Schaf, If OBP is what he brings that would be a welcome sight
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Bourn’s bat is league-average, at worst, from a position that doesn’t generally provide a lot of offense. He is a huge upgrade from Schafer at this point. If he continues playing like he has this year, we’re talking a difference of 1.5-2 WAR over the remainder of this season alone.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I was just replying to what he said
he said he brings Defense and Speed, he said nothing about OBP, thus i was saying Defense and Speed is what we got from Schaf
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Bourn is a much better defender than Schafer IMO
In addition, he is a much better offensive player. When I say Bourn’s value “primarily” comes from his defense I say that because he’s a roughly league average offensive player.
Schafer, on the other hand, isn’t anywhere close to average offensively, so far. He is well below average without exceptional CF defense either.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Thats where we differ
I think Schafer brings Exceptional CF Defense
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
I can understand your fear after trading for McLouth...but I don't believe Bourn and McLouth are similar players
McLouth essentially has had 1 solid season. Besides his 2008 year he has had 1 year where he stole over 20 bases (22) and 1 where he hit over 20 HR’s (20). Bourn had a down year last year but his numbers didn’t dip that drastically.
With Bourn, you’re not getting power (and every GM who is interested in him knows that)…with McLouth…power is what theBraves thought they were getting.
Bourn has far superior speed and base stealing ability, is a better defender, has been more consistent and you could argue that he’s still improving.
As a fan I can understand you being gun-shy,… But if the Braves decide they’re interested they should know they’re getting a different player
I like the idea of either bourn or pence coming to atlanta. Both would be great additions and bring something to the table that the braves are either lacking or could use more of. In bourn we get our leadoff man and speed, both of which are non existent with the current line up. With pence, we land a big bat that can hopefully take some pressure off of uggla and heyward to maybe allow them to start hitting again. The only problem with the third trade scenario is that the braves have no immediate need for both pence and bourn. If they land bourn…obviously he is going to platoon center field. If we get pence (or any other player used to right field), it has already been stated that freddi gonzalez is confident in heywards ability to shift into center field and would play him there. so with pence in right, heyward in center, and prado in left, where does bourn fit in? They wont push prado back into the infield unless chipper gets hurt, even though ugglas been…well ugly, he is still a solid second baseman and is second on the team in home runs, the power is there, he is just lacking the consistancy, plus i like his effort. And as far as I know, prado isnt familiar with ss, so benching AGON for him wouldnt do much. Itd be great to land both, especially considering chipper may retire after this year, but its just not going to happen bc its not necessary now. I do think a deal will be made for one of these two..in all likelyhood bourn bc he is and absolute perfect fit in Atlanta. Personally I would love to see the Braves take a stab at getting Kemp, especially if they can sign him to a long term contract before the end of the season. The Dodgers are not finacially capable of keeping kershaw, kemp and eithier, so someone has got to go..if not all three. And the braves need bats so no need for kershaw, and Kemp is head and shoulders above eithier, though thats not a shot at eithier, he is still a solid player. The Dodgers would get the most in return for Kemp and if your looking for young players, especially young pitchers, who better than the Atlanta Braves to turn to who do nothing but turn out young talented pitcherrs from their farm system. That said, it would take a handful of prospects for the Braves to land him, maybe one A-grade and two-B grade prospects but itd be worth it. It may not even take that to land him, its no secret that he wont resign with the Dodgers after this season so they dont have much to bargain with, the Braves could simply wait till the off season and sign him in free agency if he’s still there, if not, so be it. It be a wild gamble to give up future starters for possibly a half year rental, (though it would in my opinion propel the Braves into the World Series), but i would much rather Frank Wren make a bold move than no move at all like his NBA counter part (insert Rick Sund Hawks GM). All and all, Braves do make playoffs, but whether or not they do it with a new bat is unknown, but hopefully it is.
You raise some good points, but please consider breaking large posts like that into paragraphs. That was a bit difficult to read in one huge chunk.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 6, 2011 6:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Trade Bourn Kepp Wandy
Bourn doesn’t seem like he wants to stay as much as a hometown kid should. He was never really an Astros fan growing up and Houstonians probably relate more to him than he does to them. I don’t think he has any loyalty to the Astros like you and I do. Like Crawford he’s for getting as much as he can while he can. The best thing about trading Bourn though is that we have an almost equal (potentially better) replacement in Bourgeois! He’s not as good defensively but NOBODY IS! He might bring a hotter stick than Bourn though and is capable of swiping just as many bags.
Pence on the other hand isn’t from Houston but has put down some roots and claims he’s ready to be a long time Astro, through thick and thin, for richer or poorer, till retirement due us part. As a Texan this is probably an easy second home and he could give Houston more of a discount than Bourn would.
Wandy has value. I’ve never been high on Wandy, that’s no secret, but he’s been a pretty good pitcher for us and I may have taken him lightly. That being said, now is the time to strike while the iron is hot! He’s getting older and we don’t want another Carlos Lee flame out on our hands.
Kepp is a good player. He’s not a great player but he’s about as good as you can get without being great. I like him a lot and wish he could have had one season as the designated starter at 2B, but as with Wandy, strike while the iron is hot! He could bring back some nice value and open up the door to see what we have in Matt Downs.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jul 6, 2011 6:36 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Bourn definitely was an Astros’ fan growing up. His father worked at the Astrodome, and Bourn spent a lot of time watching the Astros. His favorite player was Kevin Bass, if I recall from Patti’s conversation with Bass in a recent game.
by clack on Jul 6, 2011 8:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
ya he used to yell at him from the stands.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Jul 6, 2011 9:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Ive seen that interview
He watched and yelled to Kevin Bass at the games but has said he never really payed attention to the pros much. I didn’t know his dad worked there though.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jul 6, 2011 9:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
This is really good analysis, but as a Braves fan...
I really don’t see the club unloading their farm system for Hunter Pence. He’s a solid player, but his trade value is at an all-time high and the Braves have been very cautious with their young players since the Teixeira deal three years ago.
The player that makes more sense (and this is pretty much universally agreed on among Braves writers and their beat writers as well) is Michael Bourn.
He’s a center fielder, gives Atlanta a leadoff man they’ve desired, and gives them one of the best defensive outfields in baseball with Prado and Heyward joining him.
Pence kind of fell out of favor for a few reasons. One was the cost both financially and prospect-wise. Another was he’s much more of a corner outfielder, and with Heyward not going anywhere, he’d either force Prado to move to center field or become a super utility guy. That creates more problems than it solves, really.
I write over for SB Nation Atlanta and have weighed in on both Pence and Bourn in the last week or so. http://atlanta.sbnation.com/atlanta-braves/2011/7/5/2259981/braves-trade-michael-bourn-MLB-Trade-Deadline
If any two teams are going to get a deal done, Atlanta and Houston make a lot of sense. Bourn could easily fetch one of either Mike Minor or Randall Delgado, who are both under control for 6 years. Both teams benefit greatly.
"It's not about me, it's about the team." - Martin Prado
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Jul 6, 2011 9:01 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
What's the feeling in Bravesland about Uggla?
Do people still feel he’s the long term solution at second base? Is there sentiment in favor of moving Prado back there and acquiring a different outfielder?
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
A lot of people are down on him...
But there’s not much you can do with him, either. Can’t demote him, can’t bench him for any real length of time. The wise money is on him coming around and Prado eventually moving to 3B when Chipper retires. That opens LF to a guy like Pence, but not soon enough for this deal.
Bourn is the most likely candidate, as Scott mentioned above. It allows the Braves to demote Schafer so he can get more seasoning at the plate and Bourn doesn’t absolutely have to be a long-term fixture. It gives them another year to sort out the Schafer situation and they can always offer Bourn a contract or arbitration once he hits FA, if it becomes apparent that Schafer’s isn’t going to pan out in a starting role.
In the end, I see a Bourn-Minor trade, with lower-level prospects filling out the deal. Delgado seems to be very highly prized as a Braves-type character player and I believe the FO wants to separate Vizcaino from his injury history before deciding to deal or keep him.
It would be interesting to see if the Braves couldn’t figure out a Bourn-Keppinger package to help solidify a bench spot, but they may be willing to stand pat with Hicks/Hernandez/Lugo until Infante becomes a FA. I think they’re going to go after him with a ferocity in the offseason, as he was a club and fan favorite (and his price should be lower after his comparatively poor year in Fla).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
yeah
we really can’t do anything about uggla right now. we already signed him to a 5 year 60 million extension in the winter. all we can do is hope and wait. prado is the third baseman in waiting. he was a good enough of a team mate to move to left when he didn’t want to but never complained. once chipper retires he will move back to the infield and we will almost have to trade for LF.
the way i see it there are going to be at least one significant trades this off season. we need to open up a spot for julio teheran so that means lowe might have to go depending on how much money we have to kick in. but after that we just have so much pitching that we almost HAVE to spend it as they are nearing the majors. it’s like i said earlier, if chipper retires which would set all this in motion then i could defiantly see us trading for pence.
and i do feel bad about that just FYI. i’m not like a sox fan that enjoys ripping the heart out of a franchise. but just know that if we traded for him you will be more than happy with your return.
He has to get his confidence back
Good news is he is trying to make up his bad AB’s with his play in the field. Bad news is he is trying to make up his bad AB’s….if he rides the pine, he gets no AB’s-if he comes off the bench and SO, he is of no help. Do you send down a 60M man? Perhaps that would get his confidence back. For me it is a combination of things. His timing is off, he is not swinging even thru the zone, his whole swing does not look “comfortable” like he is trying too hard and has bad form. Now it seems like his head is not in the right place. He needs to see one of those famous shrinks like Smoltz did. You don’t know what to do with such a big investment and (supposed to be a) big part of the team. Whatever it is, you don’t want it infecting the others-like Heyward or Gonzales or McClouth. I think the key could be Prado. He makes up the core of the hitting-he usually is your LO and he is kickstarting the offense. I like Uggla in the 2 hole. Maybe when he gets back, they can all start hitting like normal again. If that happens then you are looking at the Phillies as your WC…
well he has basically replicated his numbers
from the first 65 games in his last 20 or so, and his past 2 games he is 4-5 with 2 hr, a double the other way, a single and 3 walks.. also the one out he made was a diving play, which would have been a single.. I am slightly more optimistic about him lately than i was say 2 weeks ago
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
To add on...
It was really frustrating to watch Uggla for most of the first three months of the season. But for some wild reason, just about the time everyone was about to boo him and call for his benching, he’d come through in a huge situation and kind of remind everyone just how good of a hitter Dan Uggla can be. Problem is, he would do that for a game or two and then fall back into his miserable slump.
He’s owed about $58MM the next four and a half years so he isn’t exactly going anywhere. He’s been phenomenal the last two games, but it remains to be seen if he can sustain it for if it’ll just be another tease as he’s done previously.
"It's not about me, it's about the team." - Martin Prado
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Jul 7, 2011 1:18 AM CDT up reply actions
I suppose I was more wondering
If Atlanta might look to sell low on Uggla and trade him for a bag of chips and salary relief.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Not a chance there. Maybe if his struggles continue for a couple more years, but that’s a much different timeframe. In all likelihood, they’d ride out that deal for 3-4 years regardless of his performance and deal with it rather than give up on him.
The Braves really don’t like to give up something for nothing, unless the something has issues that are plaguing the clubhouse, i.e. Yunel Escobar. If they did, they would have simply released Kenshin Kawakami rather than letting him rot in AA. Likewise, they’d rather pay a high-priced underachieving player (Lowe) than trade him away to save a couple million.
Lowe is certainly more expendable now and has had some really good stretches, but his deal and Uggla’s are certainly comparable this far into Uggla’s contract. I guess it could be argued that Lowe’s performance has always been serviceable whereas Uggla’s has not, but the overriding theme is that they are both highly-paid and underperforming early in the contract. Both have or will stick around until their deal reaches its final year or two.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
He'll turn it around
I personally was ecstatic about the Uggla trade, this is a guy who has popped 30+ homers a year since he’s been in the majors. If you’ve watched the last few games, it looks like he’s moved a little close in the batters box and i think its helping him see the ball alot better. That mixed with a new found patience, has Uggla looking like a 5 spot hitter. In this rockies series, Uggla has drawn four walks over three games, along with 2 homers and 3 rbi’s…and he’s batting out of the seven spot (i applaud freddi for making that move). Maybe its just he likes hitting against that club, i don’t know. All I know is it seems like he’s made adjustments, is waiting for his pitch, and is playing with a lot less pressure on his shoulders. I expect a phenomenal second half from Uggla, and I dont favor Prado moving there. The only thing wrong with Uggla is that he is or has been trying to hard. Cant hate a guy for that. He’ll be fine, Wren will look like a genius before its all said and done.
by bravesfanldh on Jul 7, 2011 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree that Bourn would be an excellent fit in Atlanta, and there’s really no other place I’d rather see him go than Atlanta.
It’s nice to hear a Braves fan suggest that Bourn could fetch Minor or Delgado, instead of throwing out a lowball hypothetical offer like other fans of opposing teams often do. Here’s hoping Wren and Ed Wade see eye to eye on this one.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 6, 2011 9:11 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I really think a deal could be reached pretty easily. Ed Wade knows he doesn’t have a job for much longer unless some drastic changes are made and (no offense, but) the Astros don’t exactly look like they’re going to do too much winning in the next year and a half with Bourn on the team. That is the time you look to the future.
Might as well deal a player at his highest value and get a young, talented, cost-efficient young starting pitcher to start building his staff around along with Norris and Lyles. It works out really well for both sides.
"It's not about me, it's about the team." - Martin Prado
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Jul 7, 2011 1:22 AM CDT up reply actions
nice inclusion in the thread ... Mr. Coleman...
Minor or Delgado would be a good match for Houston and of course Bourn would be a great fit in Atlanta. I mentioned Delgado earlier b/c I read an article a few weeks ago that said the Astros like Delgado most out of the Braves young pitchers. But a trade centered around those 2 (Bourn/Delgado) w/possibly a few additions makes a lot of sense.
We need to make this trade happen already, if were gonna do it.
Bourn I mean. I think that Delgado for Bourn or Minor for Bourn is a great trade for both sides. Minor a bit more since we could plug him into the rotation right away and give Lyles a little more seasoning in AA or just kick JA Happ out or trade Meyers.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 7, 2011 1:19 AM CDT reply actions
Minor would allow us to trade one of the SPs, that's true
On the other hand I’m not so confident Atlanta will be willing to trade him for Bourn, I feel his market value is in the $20-25M range while Bourn’s might be a bit below that (especially when you consider that Bourn’s skills are not as valued as a power hitting slugger, for instance).
I would be okay with Delgado or Vizcaino and one or two lower ranked guys for Bourn if Minor can’t be had. Reinforcing the pitching side of AA could be very nice to continue building the wave of talent we have there.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Braves fan here
One reason why i think Minor is the guy the Braves are looking to use s trade bait is because of the guy the Bravos drafted with their first pick this year. Sean Gilmartin(sp?) out of Florida State is a clone of Minor. Polished lefty college pitcher that is well established and wouldn’t be in the minors too long. I really think they may have drafter Gilmartin as a replacement in the system for when/if Minor is dealt.
Most Braves fans will say Minor is the guy they are willing to part with though we wouldn’t like it (he is going to be a good solid big leaguer). Bourne for Minor makes th most sense
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
Best case scenario....
bourn to atlanta for minor and mcclouth, plug minor into the triple a rotation till myers or wandy gets dealt. Then when philly sees atlanta making a push they maybe get a little worried and thats when we can get them to overpay for Pence, maybe cosart and another prospect. This is the time to see if the triple a players can do anything plug mcclouth in center, minor in myers or wandy’s spot, bourg in RF or bogusevic in RF. Now you have a nice prospect in Cosart to come in the offseason and make whoever is left between myers and wandy expendable, now were sitting a little nicer with a tad bit more promise in our rotation we will also have anuery who could use some seasoning in triple a.
Bourn for McLouth, Minor, and Pastornicky
I really really doubt they trade Pence this season.
Bourn solves their CF and leadoff problem.
They can flip one of their other pitching prospects for SS help later on if they need to.
A rotation to finish the season featuring Minor, Lyles, Norris, Happ, and Aneury is young and full of potential. It also opens the door to trade Wandy and Myers and get even more prospects (3B? SS?).
2012
CF Bourgeois
2B Altuve
RF Pence
LF Lee
1B Wallace
SS (player received in trade for Wandy, Myers, or Keppinger)
3B Johnson
C Castro
Bench: Durango, Shuck/Bogusevic, Sanchez, Downs, Q
Rotation: Minor, Lyles, Norris, Happ, Aneury
Bullpen: Escalona, Wright/Abad/Chacin, Del Rosario, Carpenter, Lopez, Lyon, Melancon
VERY young and full of upside. If the team struggles again you can finish the rebuild by shipping out Pence, Lee, and Lyon. That allows all the studs in AA to play in AAA next season (aside from Altuve).
by Snake Diggity on Jul 7, 2011 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
2012
I like that roster and the idea of finishing off the rebuild then too. Bullpens are always a crap shoot so im not worried about the young guys there, but the rotation could be good for years and stay together. The lineup is not bad, less pop than people would like but all around its not too bad. Maybe Pence can garner tons of attention in the offseason or even up to the trade deadline next year, next year lee will have one year left on his deal so maybe someone takes a flyer on him and we eat most of his last year left just to give martinez or shuck a shot, worst case scenario we cant trade him but guess what its his last year for sure. He also could turn it on since hes a FA and lights up the stats granted all i hear is him retiring at seasons end. i hope in 2011 we trade kepp, bourn, and either myers or wandy. Then 2012 pence, lyon, myers or wandy (whichever is left), and Lee hopefully. In those scenarios come 2013 there are no more multi year deals on the books and then we can actually see which direction this team is headed.
We’re not unloading our farm for a right fielder that can’t play center. We won’t give up our top 10 like Pastornicky, Delgado, Teheran, Minor, etc. And Pence isn’t much better than Prado or Heyward as you say. You may say that because Pence is your only All-Star while Prado and Heyward aren’t because they’re injured, no offense. I’m not so sold on Minor now, even though he’s a first rounder. He hasn’t impressed me much with the Braves, so why would he go to the Astros? To go 3-10 like the once ROY hopeful J.A. Happ? (again, no offense, but the Astros are honestly the worst team in the NL).
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 28, 2011 9:50 PM EDT reply actions
Bourn is the best defensive center fielder in baseball. He is also the best base stealer in baseball. His offensive #‘s are adequate. He is a former All-Star and Gold Glove winner. He is under team control (relatively cheaply) through next season. There is no reason he shouldn’t garner a Top 50 prospect plus an additional B or better prospect.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 7, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
True...but
I agree that Bourn is worth roughly that. However, from a Braves standpoint, they may not be willing to part with as much to get him. Here’s why:
1) For that price, the Braves may as well throw in one or two more prospects and go after a guy like kemp (a triple crown contender with great speed and good defense).
2) The Braves aren’t buyers for sure, their only looking. If the price isn’t right, the Braves will likely just stick to Schafer in CF. He’s battled injury which has slowed his progression in the majors greatly, but a lot of people in the organization believe he can be a Bourn type player with more power.
3) The Braves a knocking on the door of the division lead and best record in baseball. After the weekend series with Phillie the Braves could have sole possession of both. If that is the case, why unload good AND great prospects?
That said, I feel the Braves should make a move for Bourn, but not for the price of two or more prospects. I saw a post earlier suggesting Minor and Mclouth for Bourn, if the deal does get done I’d say that is right on the money of what the Braves would be willing to give.
by bravesfanldh on Jul 7, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I completely agree on Minor and Mclouth for Bourn, yes you are not buyers but to keep pace with philly if they do acquire a bat at the deadline they could run away with it. I am a braves fan too after the astros of course and i HATE the phillies so im rooting for yall to overtake them, but chasing that rotation and all the injuries yall have Bourn is your best bet. Kemp would be an amazing pickup but it will require 3 or 4 of your top ten prospects easy it might take even more to pry him away, he is at his max value right now and im pretty sure LA wants to keep him around so i honestly dont see him going anywhere for anywhere near cheap.
indeed
L.A would kill to keep Kemp, but since they filed for bankruptcy i dont see anyway possible that they offer him the max contract that the yankees likely will. Bottom line, Kemp will NOT be a Dodger next season. That said, the Dodgers should get what they can for him now instead of losing him in free agency. With that in mind it wont take as much to get him as it should even though his trade value is at an all time high. The Dodgers dont have much to bargain with because no team will unload its farm system to get him for half a year when they can just try and sign him in the next year. It’ll still take 3 or 4 top 20 prospects ti get him, but the Dodgers are not in much of a position to get picky.
And I agree completely that the Braves will absolutely have to get another bat if the Phillies do. But i do not worry about the phillies rotation, the Braves rotation is statistically better and anchored by, in my opinion, the leading candidate for the cy young in Jair Jurrgens. Plus the Braves bullpen is much better that Phillies, Kimbrel and Venters are the best set up and closer duo in the league hands down. In the end, Braves will make move as will phillies. In my opinion, neither teams move will decide the pennant race. What will decide it is whether or not Prado stays healthy for the braves, and whether or not Uggla gets out of his slump (powers there consistency isnt) and if Heyward starts to hit as well. If those three things happen, the Braves should win the division.
Another note, the Phillies screwed themselves when they pulled a Miami Heat and tried to sign a “big three”, we all saw that it doesnt necessarily work, and I dont think it will for the phils either.
by bravesfanldh on Jul 7, 2011 12:45 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree
Braves are hands down best rotation in baseball PERIOD, i was wrong on my last post sorry! But if the phills grab a bat they could run away just because you have to many if’s in your lineup do to underachieving and injuries. If ugla turns it around and chipper stays healthy ( i wish he would since hes a future HOF’er) and Prado stays healthy you could take that wildcard but i dont see philly letting go of the division there big 3 are dominant down the stretch and in the playoffs. Yes Jurrjens is the leading Cy Young candidate and winner in my book, and hudson is hudson, but lowe can be dreadful at times and beachy is young. If philly adds a bat you cannot catch them but if you can get Bourn which i believe will make yall the frontrunners do to his game changing speed and defense.
Kemp on the other hand, i see your point of getting something for him before you lose him but they still think there in it and as long as they think that he will be there, if they do trade him that team will go downhill in a hurry. Im pretty sure they will be able to re sign him and let eithier go.
maybe
I would take jurrgens, hudson, and hanson against phillies three. You can make arguments both ways..i will give a slight nod to phillie though in playoff experience, but when its all said and done i have enough confidence in our starters to keep it close and if the braves score first and hold a lead after 7…good luck getting the lead back off of venters and kimbel.
And saying the Braves “could” take the wild card is quite the understatement. We are 2.5 games back of philly and going into a 3 games series against them. The braves are 9-1 over their last ten, and something like 14-3 over their last 17, easily the hottest team in baseball and we’re battling injuries and hitters slumps. How are they doing it…pitching. Not only are the braves 2.5 games back of philly, but 2.5 back of having the best record in the majors, as it stands they have the second best record. So saying they “could” win the wild card isnt doing the team justice, they are the second best team in baseball with one of their most consistent hitters in Prado on the DL, their Hall-of-Fame third basemen playing through injury, and their ss, 2nd basemen, right fielder and center fielder all batting well under .250, not to mention the Mcslouch is getting consistent playing time bc of prados injury ( the way he’s playing we may as well not even have someone batting 8th, wont notice the difference).
Point is, if the Braves get healthy and have someone more than just McCann and Freeman carry the team, they are a force to be reckoned with. P.S Freeman is turning into a dangerous hitter, looks like Bobby Cox was right, I can definitely see him becoming a 30 hr 100+ rbi guy soon.
But I do agree Bourn would do nothing but improve the Braves, i would not be upset at all if they make that trade.
As for Kemp…well the Dodgers can in no way think they are still in it, they are 12 games back in arguably the weakest division in baseball, and have the 4th lowest winning percentage in all of baseball. Doesnt sound like a team “in it” to me. I say they are in rebuilding mode, I do agree that they’d rather move Ethier and keep Kemp( who wouldnt) but the team needs to rebuild AND dump significant salary, the best way to do that is through Kemp, no way he’s in L.A in 2012, through trade or free agency, he’ll be rockin a new uni by next season.
Pence would be better in CF that what you got in McClouth and a better hitter than Schaffer, Pence has a good arm and above average speed so he can cover ground i believe he is underrated as an OF’er. If Atlanta went after Pence you will lose 1 or 2 of your top ten no matter what you think. You are chasing Philly so your gonna have to make a splash at the deadline, i personally think Bourn would be a better fit than Pence and wont cost AS much, but i do see Minor and a few other pieces coming to us for him. Bourn is the best base stealer in the game right now and plays a gold glove CF. Minor will come to Houston in either deal if it happens, by the way Happ was not as highly regarded as Minor was so he will not be 3 – 10 with a 5+ ERA. In response to your, “so why would he go to the Astros?” Its not minor’s choice where he goes its if we want him and Atlanta wants to give him up. Also, i dont agree with you on Houston being the worst team in the NL, we are the worst team in the MAJORS right now!
Bear with him...
He’s eleven.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Nope, 14.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 28, 2011 9:50 PM EDT reply actions
Good Article
I think the idea of Pence to the Braves in exchange for a young pitching package makes a ton of sense for both teams. Pence, in my opinion, is the type of player the braves really like (remember the JD Drew trade, Jeff Francour…etc); a 5 tool guy. He’s got pop, decent speed, good average and good defense. Bourn, while electrifying, doesn’t rate the type of prospects that 1) the Astros will want and 2) the braves would be willing to give up. In fact, I argue that if we want a “pure leadoff guy” that the braves simply ship Cory Gearrin to the Chisox for Juan Pierre. He’d be an excellent stopgap for a year of two. The other problem with Bourn is that Schafer is really starting to emerge as a player. The Braves are playing outstanding ball, since he’s been in the lineup. His average is rising, but most importantly he’s getting on base. The reason I bring up Schafer is that I don’t see his playing time diminishing a ton, even with the acquisition of Pence for a couple of reasons:
1) Chipper is bound to be out for extended periods of time requiring Prado to play third
2) Prado, as good as he has been, seems to occasionally get the injury bug and needs resting as well (insert Hinske and Schafer at third and LF respectively)
3) Prado, if totally healthy, has the ability to rest Uggla on occasion. Again playing time for Schaffer.
4) You always need a great 4th outfielder
All these are reasons that Schaffer will continue to get at bats. But, most importantly, IF (and this a big If!) Chipper makes it through the whole season, it’s pretty damn obvious he’s retiring. The knees are almost gone. That means we have a full-time outfield opening if we move Prado to third base as Chipper’s replacement. I think Schaffer is the man.
The idea of Mclouth being thrown in the deal makes sense for the Astros as he is a nice stopgap, and to be honest a change of scenery may do him well. He was excellent as a Pirate, but for some reason his time in Atlanta has been rocky at best
Best Trade for Both Sides
here is the best deal that works for Both Teams.
1. Braves Get: Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger
2. Astros Get: Mike Minor, Nate McLouth, David Filak, & JJ Hoover
The Braves get a GG CF, lead off man and spark plug, and a nice Back up Middle Infielder.
The Astros get a High Ceiling Major League ready LHP, an OF to fill a spot the rest of 11, & 2 nice starting Pitching prospects that are 1 and 3 years away.
Houston fans always seem classy and educated.
First off let me say I am impressed with the quality of posters on here. Much better insight and realistic articulation then most of the boards I have read.
Mauck 98, i would make that trade as a braves fan. We lack a leadoff hitter and Bourn works for me. I think the front office wants Infante back as a super utility guy but Keppinger would fit that bill and I think would be cheaper overall. Knowing how the Braves front office is stingy with pitching prospects though, they may want to put in Delgado instead of Minor (righty lefty thing). Either way that is a good trade for both side I think.
by Michael Chatwood on Jul 15, 2011 3:49 PM CDT reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
| Sat 05/26 |
WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1) |
3 - 6 loss |
|
Houston Astros
Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
||
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
