SB Nation Houston Editor's Pick
Faces in the Crowd: Tracking Prospects
8 teams in the Astros' minor league system. So many box scores, so many prospects, so little time. Which ones are worth keeping an eye on? There are plenty of decent Grant Hogue types out there that will likely never make a splash in the major leagues. How can you identify a prospect that might matter some day?
I am no propect expert. I never made it past T-ball as a player myself. But I like the Astros, and I like following the minor leagues. Here are a few criteria I use to determine which prospect to keep an eye on day in and day out, a few players who fit the category, and what I look for as a next step in that category of player. I'll focus on position players, since they are a bit easier to evaluate without expert knowledge. The criteria are in no particular order.
1st Indicator: Do the Astros believe in him? I watch for playing time and promotions on this one. The Astros have more info than I do as a fan. If they play Player A more than Player B, that suggests that Player A is more of a prospect than Player B. And if Player A is promoted when I don't expect it, that means he has attracted the notice of people who matter. The one exception is "filler" players who are shuffled around to meet an organizational need (for example, some of the Astros' AAA catchers).
Examples: Jonathan Villar (promotion), Rene Garcia and Roberto Pena (lots of playing time at catcher), along with more obvious examples such as Altuve, Wallace, Hinze, Mier, and Goebbert (promotions).
Next steps: For promotions, how does the player adjust to the next level? Watch especially BB/K ratios here - is he overwhelmed by pitching at the new level? Does he adjust over time?
2nd Indicator: Is the player young for his level? This reveals a player ahead of the curve. He is playing against opponents who have had more development time. He has the luxury of more time to figure things out. The Astros might be targeting him as an organizational priority.
Examples: Ovando (17 years old in Greeneville), Jose Fernandez (18 years old, second year for GCL Astros), Deshields (18 at Lexington), Roberto Pena (just turned 19, at Lexington), Villar (20 at CC), Altuve (21 at CC).
Next steps: slow improvement over time. There needs to be some trend towards progress (and not just treading water, like Jay Austin).
3rd Indicator: Was he a high draft pick? This shows that, at least at the time, the player was recognized as a strong talent. The Astros (and often other organizations) saw him as a potential future contributor. The more recent the draft, the more useful, since after significant minor league playing time, the player's own minor league performance becomes a more useful indicator.
Examples: Deshields (1st round, 2010), Mier (1st round, 2009), Kvasnicka (1st round suppl., 2010), Wates (3rd round, 2010), Nash (3rd round, 2009), J Meyer (3rd round, 2009).
Next steps: confirmation of talent through results in the minor leagues.
4th Indicator: defensive reputation at a skills position. This is a difficult one, since you can't see this in the stats and box scores. I keep an ear open for good reports from scouts or national minor league writers.
Examples (I'm hesitant to list these, since my knowledge is limited and this is based just on my recollection of what I have heard): Mier (SS), Pena (C), Gominsky (CF), Meyer (3B), Altuve (?) (2B).
Next steps: Can he develop enough offensively to supplement the defense?
5th Indicator: RESULTS. Does the player outperform his league, offensively? I think that this is the most important indicator, since eventually any future successful major league player will need to succeed at the lower levels. The stat I use to measure outperfoming the league is runs created compared to the rest of the league (RC+ - available at fangraphs and other places). I like the stat because it takes into account hitting and baserunning. A number above 100 indicates that the player is better than average, and the higher, the better. Beware of the dreaded "small sample size" with this indicator.
Examples: Hinze, J.D. Martinez, Altuve, Wallace and to a lesser extent, Adamson, Bailey, Wikoff. Also throw in Juan Santana (DSL league) and Chase Davidson (but small sample size alert here).
Next steps: Does the player sustain the strong performance over time? Do the Astros believe in him enough to promote him? Is his defense defensible?
This system isn't perfect, but it helps me sort through box score info quickly to look for the results that are most significant. I hope that some of these names will be familiar names to Astros fans over the years to come.
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Jay Austin
ZING!
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by Timothy De Block on Jul 4, 2011 3:48 PM CDT reply actions
Nice write up
I often wonder how a better team, or should I say better franchise, looks at its lower level players. Do all teams have as many flame outs as the Astros seem to have? Are all teams really focusing on JD Martinez type players as their stars? Do other teams have better results from more of their draft picks? We seem unlucky, I guess is what I’m getting at.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jul 4, 2011 6:03 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Maybe its because
Our two #1 picks in Mier and DDJ haven’t had the dominant status you’d expect from a #1 pick. Hopefully this draft coupled with next years draft will be the final nail in this crappy minors coffin.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jul 4, 2011 9:41 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
never looked at Fangraphs before but i looked at our minors with that RC stat and its nice to know who preforms good and who is below or at avg
Firesale! Everyone must go!
It is pretty handy
Though the only drawback is that is always a day or two behind with the data.
by pacbellpilgrim on Jul 5, 2011 7:17 PM CDT up reply actions
eh still its nice too look at
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 5, 2011 7:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Interesting comparison
I guess the “Grant Hogue” types of the minor league system could be used as a comparison to your writing skills and basic knowledge base of the game. The mediocrity of this write up not only shows that you are ill informed, but that you generally should stay away from expressing your opinion when it comes to baseball prospects. It is clear you have not taken the time to pay attention to, or watch in person, the “Grant Hogue” types out there. As someone who has been to more than my fair share of Astros minor league games, I have seen first hand the pompous attitudes most of these “prospects” carry with them on and off the field. It is kids like Hogue who are rare in these organizations that should be applauded for their hard work and tenacity, not berated by some blogger with a skewed and misinterpreted vision of the game.
A little uncalled for
I’m sure pacbellpilgrim wasn’t tryint to attack Grant Hogue. He was simply refering to the several prospects who are a old for their level and put up solid yet unspectacular numbers. The reality of the minor leagues is that very few make it to the majors. Thats the unfortunate and blunt truth.
I’ve seen reports that the guy plays hard and is quite good defensively. But, the truth is, he doesn’t project to be a major league player. Is it belittling him? No, its simply a comment on his potential. Not an attack on his character or him. I’m a big JB Shuck fan. You can read articles that I’ve written. But, I don’t think he has a future as solid major leaguer. He could be a 4th/5th outfielder for a few years, but thats about it. It’s not a knock on him.
by Subber10 on Jul 5, 2011 9:32 PM CDT up reply actions 4 recs
The funny thing is, you could make the argument that Hogue fits one or more of my criteria! The Astros show their support by giving him consistent playing time, and he often plays a key position (CF) and does it well. I applaud the fact that he sounds like a hard worker and good clubhouse influence too. I wish him the best of success in the future.
by pacbellpilgrim on Jul 6, 2011 6:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Re: A little uncalled for
Thank you for your profound synopsis on who you think has major league potential. To any baseball fan the clear and substantial facts and statistics are out there for those to make their own opinion. My point was and still is, if you take the time to watch a game versus pulling up statistics behind your computer screen you would see Hogue and many more of his “type” do in fact have major league potential. I do not need to read any articles because my opinion stands firm. The comment on his potential is the beast and the nature of the game, however, singling out a player like Hogue in an unfair comparison is what was uncalled for. The kids playing in the minors are working towards a goal as most do in their workplace which is ultimately what a professional baseball organization is. Being singled out with a direct negative connotation on his performance was unprovoked and frankly uncalled for, not only for Hogue, but for any player of his “type.” I doubt Hogue or anyone of his “type” who stumble across this article would take the remark as a compliment. I believe Hogue and players like him are aware of their own potential and do not need to read the opinions of those misinformed. Any blogger can make an opinion based on stats, it is the scouts and managers that see potential based on live performance and not always on statistics. Luckily for us all, this does not appear to be your day job.
Well you are correct on one thing. This is one blogger's opinion and in our country one is
allowed to air his or her opinions. If you don’t agree with someone’s opinion on their blog then you have the right to not read said blog again. On behalf of of the person wrote this article I apologize if this article offended you. Although I am a bit shocked that you have taken such offense to this article as though it were written about yourself. Im sure Mr. Hogue wouldn’t be nearly as offended as you are by this article since ballplayers must have thick skin since they routinely hear much worse by fans at their games. Just remember that this is an opinion blog and you have every right to not come here again and half to read anyone’s opinions ever again. You chose to come here and create an account today and read the article. Nobody forced you to do so. Just like with opinion TV you if you don’t like like don’t watch it.
P.S.- If you stay here, which I hope you do, we are a pretty tight group and tend to be respectful of one another’s opinions even if we disagree with them vigorously.
That’s what this blog is for. People can express their opinions about ballplayers. If a minor leaguer is that sensitive to fans expressing their opinions, then they probably can’t make it as a major leaguer anyway. As players move to the majors, they really go under the microscope and may get lots of criticism, whether deserved or not.
just chillax a little bit over there, we definately dont need someone to go crazy on someones opinions and like my homeslice strossouthsaid were pretty close nit group.....
were here to have FUN and express opinions not destroy someones feelings……..just saying
I don’t think the author meant to disrespect Grant Hogue. He was simply stating how he chooses which players he is going to follow more closely. There is a lot to like about Grant’s game. But no amount of hustle or heads up plays will change the fact that he is 25 in high A ball and probably not on a “fast track” to the show. I don’t pour over many Grant Hogue box scores either. Sue me.
No mention of “mother’s basement.” I’ve gotta deduct points for that.
by MadMartygan on Jul 5, 2011 11:37 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
You are right that there is more than statistics. Thats why I grade players based on more than statistics. I read several reports a day. In fact, I talk to local fans of a few of these affiliates. I try to watch video of as many prospects as I can. But, being gritty and working your butt off doesn’t get you to the major leagues. I worked my butt off in HS and never got a scholarship to play basketball. Why? Because I didn’t have the talent. Not a knock on me.
Any guy who is drafted has a chance. But, the percentage of 25 year olds with mediocre statistics in High A ball reaching the majors is next to 0. That is prospecting. Figuring out which players have the best potential and chance to make it in the majors. Unfortunately for Grant Hogue, he has a tough hill to climb, and I’m sure he knows that. I like a lot of these “Grant Hogue types” a lot more as a person because they are thankful they are getting an opportunity to play the game and reach it, so they bust their butts. And, you have the opposite side, some of them who were born with talent feel entitled to have success and be promoted. Those guys typically don’t make it either. It requires a combination of skills, work ethic, and attitude to make it through the grind.
Hogue has two of them, but from reports I’ve read and first hand feedback, he’s not someone you expect to make it to the majors because of all the factors standing in his way. And that’s the cruel world these guys live in. They know that. Sure, he’s got a chance, but a very unlikely one.
It seems everyone is missing the point I was trying to make. I thought the comment was unfair to compare any player, not specifically Hogue, to a certain type of implied averageness or mediocrity. I am a sports fan and have been fortunate enough to attend a lot of Astros minor league games and have been able to see the players reported about on this blog. It is hard to hear about the “prospects” listed above and see them playing with bad attitudes and little heart as some, not all, do. My point was in the future do not base a judgment on stats alone and maybe rethink a comparative comment like the one made earlier. It was not my intention to take the fun out of the “close-knit” group you guys have here. I read frequently but have never been inclined to comment until today. I realize the entitlement people have to their own opinions which is why I expressed mine today. I would hardly perceive my response as “going crazy” but again, that is an opinion. I realize criticism is the nature of the beast, again, my point was no one likes to be singled out in their workplace for poor performance or as a “type” minor league baseball player or not. The sentence would have read the same if no player was being compared to an unlikely shot of making it to the majors. That is the only point I was trying to make. My apologies for any offense taken as it was not my intention to ruffle feathers, just cause attention to a comment that was maybe a little unfair.
PS. It took all of my strength not to use a “mothers basement” remark!
The problem that I think we all have is that the author was not singling out Mr. Hogue
(whom I had not heard of until this article) with a personal attack. He was using Mr. Hogue as a barometer of how he the author grades the potential of minor leaguers. A personal attack would most likely have consisted of a more direct approach such as describing Mr. Hogue as a poor defender or lousy hitter or had a poor work ethic or poor attitude (which I am not saying he is any of these because I still don’t know who he is or what his stats are and have been in past years) . Besides, the author implies that Mr. Hogue is a decent player. There have been a lot of decent players to see time in the show but then again there a lot of decent players who never even sniff the show. What is commonly referred to around here as the “bust rate” of minor leaguers is very high. Not every minor leaguer no matter how hard they try have the ability to make it to the big leagues. We here at TCB want all of our young prospects to succeed as that only benefits our beloved Astros who let’s face it, need all the helo they can get right now. I think you took this one just a little too personal.
I think I understand your main complaint about unfairly singling out Hogue. I meant no disrespect to him as a player.
Thanks for the feedback, and I agree with others that your opinions are welcomed here.
I hear mom calling, so I had better run :)
by pacbellpilgrim on Jul 6, 2011 6:30 AM CDT up reply actions
J.D. Martinez recently mentioned that the Astros told him he was nothing more than organizational depth. Needless to say that’s been motivation for him to prove the organization wrong. He was drafted in the 20th round, Grant Hogue was drafted in the 35th round. I highly doubt the organization told Hogue something different than Martinez.
If you wish people not to generalize you probably shouldn’t use the same type of generalization in describing players with talent or those that use statistics to base their opinions. Not everyone has the opportunity to go see a live minor league game, but their are hundreds of scouting reports out there from people who do go to the game and a lot of the games are broadcast online now, which quite a few people on these boards take advantage of.
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by Timothy De Block on Jul 6, 2011 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions
really?
Is it really what the organization told Martinez? That’s harsh! I’ve had high hopes for the guy so I hope he is more than just depth.
Thats what most late round picks are told. He was told that when he was drafted. It’s not something they’ve told him recently. He’s one of the best prospects they have.
This Astros.com article about Martinez is an interesting read. According to the article, Greenville manager Rodney Linares told Martinez that he wasn’t supposed to get much playing time. But injuries arose, Martinez got his chance and made the most of it.

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