Nearing the trade deadline, the Astros make good, but not great deals

by Brianlamb on Jul 31, 2011 10:28 AM CDT

I think that all Houston Astros fans can agree that the team had to make deals. No one wanted to see their favorite player moved, but given the organizations recent lack of producing a formidable farm system, moves had to be made. And while top prospects are always great to have in your organization, i wish the Astros would have done more.

At one point a few weeks ago, I was convinced the Houston Astros couldn't deal Hunter Pence. Pence finally found his groove, batting a .309 average. Michael Bourn was the speedster on the team, as well as a former gold glover. I hope the Astros aren't done with trades, Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez should be dealt too. I have no objections to dealing Carlos Lee as well, but given the contract he was given by the Astros, that's just not possible.

Year after year the Astros farm system has dwindled, as well as fan attendance at Minute Maid Park. While we have dealt for some extra depth, we didn't trade for a proven player. We received some great prospects from the Phillies, but that's all they are. At least with Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn we knew what we had. And with 28 losses to go before 100, we had to make some moves. We had to deal for prospects that were better than our own, which currently, wouldn't be that difficult.

The Houston Astros won't be going to the World Series anytime soon, i just hope we don't have another few seasons of 100+ losses.

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Cosart, Singleton, and Zeid

for just Pence was a great deal for us.

Bourn and cash for Schafer and 4 average prospects was a terrible deal for us.

I’d give Ed Wade’s grade thus far a B-.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Jul 31, 2011 12:54 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs

I agree

Today’s trade (Bourn) was bad, but still a lot to be happy about from yesterday’s (Pence).

by pacbellpilgrim on Jul 31, 2011 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions

Cosart, Singleton, and Zeid are all prospects though. We traded easily our best player on the team for guys that could, or could not, work out in the end.

follow me on twitter @briandlambsr

i'm a sports fan at heart, looking to blog about my views.

by Brianlamb on Jul 31, 2011 1:36 PM CDT reply actions

But,

if they do work out, they will be better than Pence.

Worth the risk. No reason to think they (Cosart & Singleton) wouldn’t pan out, except for injuries.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Jul 31, 2011 6:20 PM CDT up reply actions

So you want a team built around Pence?

What do you like losing 2/3 of the time?

by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

You guys act like

Pence and Bourn are franchise players. Neither are. Astros got a lot of pitching which they needed and a potential impact 1B you can build your team around.

by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 4:26 PM CDT reply actions

In hindsight, these were excellent deals to get going into the right direction.

If we go back to the Keppinger deal, let’s see who’ve we got.

SP:
Jarred Cosart
Henry Sosa
Paul Clemens
Brett Oberholtzer

RP:
Juan Abreu
Jason Stoffel
Josh Zeid

1B: Jonathan Singleton

CF: Jordan Schafer

1 player to be named later

Even if we had kept Pence, Bourn, and Keppinger for the next 2 years, we’ll never have a good enough pitching staff due to a lack of minor league pitching depth. Now that we have good pitching depth & high-upside arms, we are going to be a lot better in 2 years than we would be with keeping Pence, Bourn, & Keppinger. And not to mention, a lot cheaper. This money would be well spent on the draft and international free-agency.

While you may think the Astros were swindled in these deals, keep in mind that these trades helped our organization become a lot better on 2 of 3 fronts. Long term success, and payroll. Only thing we’ve lost is short term success (and we haven’t had short term success even with Pence, Bourn, and Keppinger).

/\__/\
(=^_^=)

by BustaPozee on Jul 31, 2011 6:02 PM CDT reply actions

I won’t debate the fact that we got depth and, potentially, some really great prospects.

But that’s all they are is potential. They could flop in two years. Atleast with the guys we had there was a potential for stars. Who is going to be the star now?

follow me on twitter @briandlambsr

i'm a sports fan at heart, looking to blog about my views.

by Brianlamb on Jul 31, 2011 6:09 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Pence Bourn & Keppinger were all their best this year

But we have been losing so much, mainly due to lack of pitching. We also have a lack of pitching in the minors. So, we would be expecting losing seasons like this for many more years, unless we do something about addressing the lack of pitching depth in the upper minors. Trading our best players was the only way to acquire this depth which gives us a chance at winning more games in the future, reducing payroll, and being allowed to spend more on the draft & international free agents.

This was the best route to go in my opinion.

/\__/\
(=^_^=)

by BustaPozee on Jul 31, 2011 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions

Pence, Bourn, and Keppinger

are not anywhere close to being stars.

by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Well their performance this year was probably tops or average in their career

Even if they get better, look at the team record. We haven’t been winning games, with or without Pence, Bourn & Kepp. It all has to do with the pitching, which absolutely sucks. Pitching sucked in the minors too. How do you expect to win games without good pitching?

If they weren’t traded, we’d likely see many 1st round picks many years in a row. But I think we have the pitching that will make the team really good in the future. And our position players will come up too.

/\__/\
(=^_^=)

by BustaPozee on Jul 31, 2011 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions

All have

unsustainable BABIPs that are carrying their averages. None hit for power or have ideal plate discipline.

by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 6:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Their BABIPs were supported by their high linedrive rates

I believe Keppinger & Bourn had line drive rates at 25%, & 26% respectively, with Bourn’s being tops in the majors. BABIPs on line drives are generally around .700 which explains why their BABIPs in general were high.
Pence did not have a high linedrive rate, but has a lot of infield hits.

Question is, could they still keep hitting line drives at those rates? My answer, no. This was just something that popped up this year. They did not have good LD rates last year.

/\__/\
(=^_^=)

by BustaPozee on Jul 31, 2011 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions

You pick the statistics you want to make your case: does not mean you are correct.

Bourn is one of the best CF in the game. But because his game is based on speed and defense, he is not highly valued by the idiots that think only power matters.
Pence may have faults, but he is still way above average. With the protection he is going to get in Philly, I expect his offense to reach new levels.
And lets be honest – you have no idea what is sustainable – you are simply going off odds. BABIP is a useful tool, but not the end-all, save-all.
Players “break-through” all the time. Two years ago , you could have gotten Jose Bautista for little more than a bucket of balls. Not going to happen now

by kdm59 on Jul 31, 2011 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions

Yes their career standards should be thrown out the window.

Remember when the Astros traded their top 2 prospects and another pitcher for Randy Johnson? Pence and Bourn are no where near Randy Johnson’s league, and would have to take the Titanic to get there.

Pence will be surrounded with better offensive players, which also means he’ll be batting in a position that better suits his skill-set. Which is 5/6 and not 3/4.

Bourn is a great CF, never said he wasn’t and he’s more valuable to a team needing 1 player to be a playoff contender, doesn’t mean he’s worthy of A level prospects.

by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions

So basically

you are against any sort of trade that ever involves a proven commodity for prospects?
That’s what most deals entail.

by panamamyers on Jul 31, 2011 9:22 PM CDT up reply actions

No I have a problem with dealing a former gold glove winner and a very strong player in Pence. Had we dealt Wandy today, I wouldve wanted a proven pitcher instead of a prospect. I feel that way with every trade that’s made when you deal a very good to great player.

follow me on twitter @briandlambsr

i'm a sports fan at heart, looking to blog about my views.

by Brianlamb on Jul 31, 2011 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions

A team that has a proven pitcher to spare

wouldn’t need to trade for Wandy.

by ntn on Jul 31, 2011 11:49 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

hah

yeah that such a weird suggestion. it works the other way too…if we wanted to add a proven pitcher for wandy, there is a very obvious trade partner…us!

by auclairkeithbc on Aug 1, 2011 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions

You made a definitive statement that their current level is unsustainable. You may be right, but their is a good chance you are wrong. Only time will tell. I have no problems with differences of opinion, that is the nature of the beast. However, your statement was worded as a statement of fact. that I took exception to.

Both of these players have demonstrated a continual improvement year to year (moreso with Bourn). So again you have no idea what their career standards are. They may regress, but I think they will continue to elevate their games.

And yes I do remember when we rented Johnson for two months, and paid dearly with our top two prospects, both of which were MLB ready, and a throw-in that turned out to be pretty good. And if either was a free agent this year, we would probably have received slightly better than next to nothing in return.

I happen to agree that Bourn may not be worthy of A prospects; however, I think he is worthy of at least one B+, and one B, with a couple throw-ins. I do not think we received this from the Braves, but at least it is debatable.

by kdm59 on Jul 31, 2011 8:58 PM CDT reply actions

Sorry this was supposed to be a reply to Neil

by kdm59 on Jul 31, 2011 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions

A made definite statements

because both Pence and Bourn are regressing with their plate discipline. It’s the one thing that batters control, and both Pence and Bourn are terrible at it. Plus most players eventually revert back to their career averages. Now it may not happen this year, but it’s doubtful either player will maintain .300 averages over the next 2-3 seasons.

by Neil Leininger on Jul 31, 2011 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions

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