What In The World Is Houston Doing to George Springer?

because the independent league threats are very real. Boras knows how to convert a independent league signing into higher pay for first round picks. Max Scherzer and Luke Hochevar are good examples, both of whom signed with the Fort Worth Cats. Hochevar was a low first round pick (40th overall) of the Dodgers, and never reached contract terms with LA. He returned to the draft in the next year and was the No. 1 pick, with the Royals paying what was considered to be an enormous amount at the time to sign him. Both of those independent league signings occurred before the current Aug. 15 signing deadline was put in place. Scherzer signed with the D-Backs in May of the following year after he was drafted. The independent league games probably increased Scherzer’s bonus because there were previous questions about an arm injury.

What incentive does Springer have to sign quickly? The dollar figure won’t go down as they get closer to the deadline. Not many players in the top 10 have signed, and usually the guys in the mid-first round wait for the top contracts to sign first, because they’re more likely to be overslot and can raise the overall level of contracts that sign later. Even if the difference only ends up being $40,000 or so (relatively small change in baseball contract terms), in real terms, that’s a very nice car, or enough to go back to school and finish his degree if baseball didn’t work out.

You could say that his incentive is to get into the system and get development time, but look at it this way. He’s had a long college baseball season and is probably enjoying the rest. He’s not some 35th rounder who has to get out there soon and make a good impression or be out of baseball in the next two years…he’ll get the benefit of the doubt by virtue of being a first-rounder. And the Astros lower levels don’t generally try to make adjustments with a player right away…they usually give the guy about a month to do his thing his way and show them what got him drafted. And by that time, the season will be almost over. His incentive to get on the field is not that high.

If the Astros were to start increasing their bonus offers at this point, they’d only be bidding against themselves because Springer would probably still just wait until the deadline and see if Houston would up the offer again.