Fellow Astros Fans: All Top 100 Prospects Are Not Created Equal
by OremLK on Jul 25, 2011 10:00 AM CDT
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PrintThere has been a lot of discussion over the last few days about the Astros and potential trades sending Hunter Pence to the Phillies in exchange for Domonic Brown. In case you didn't already know, Brown is a corner outfielder who was Baseball America's 4th best prospect in baseball for 2011. He's MLB-ready now and has superstar upside.
I am sure Ed Wade has asked for Brown in a deal, but asking and receiving are obviously two very different things. Before I get into the meat of this story, I will just say straight-up, Brown is probably off the table in trade talks. That is the safe assumption to make, and I see little reason to think otherwise.
With that said, I have seen many trade proposals involving Brown from optimistic Astros fans. Some are moderately ridiculous, but perhaps plausible only as an early Astros offer to begin bargaining. For instance, a scenario where the Astros send Pence to the Phillies in exchange for Domonic Brown and the Phillies' top first base prospect, Jonathan Singleton.
Other proposals are so ludicrous that if Wade actually made them the Phillies would likely hang up the phone and never call back. For example, suggesting that Pence is worth Domonic Brown plus two or three other substantial pieces--top 100 prospects along the lines of Singleton.
Believe me, I understand the impulse which drives these thoughts--Pence is a relatively young fan favorite, under inexpensive team control. I'll even go so far as to say he's a borderline star player--he has, after all, been the Astros' all-star representative twice.
I think what might be driving these proposals is a distorted view of the value of prospects. For those of you who do not follow the minor leagues too closely, you may not have a good grasp on the way teams actually value their young players. There is a vast difference between the quality of the 100th best prospect in baseball and the best prospect in baseball. In dollar value, we're talking about orders of magnitude here. As a very rough range, let's just say that the best prospect in baseball is worth 5-10 times as much as the 100th best.
This is why we talk about Domonic Brown as being an unrealistic trade target to receive in return for Hunter Pence. As the fourth best prospect in baseball, especially being MLB-ready, his value by himself is greater than Pence's. This may be hard to grasp since he is not an established player and yes, Pence is a proven player in his prime.
There are two things you need to understand: Firstly, if all works out well, Dom Brown could be much, much better than Hunter Pence. His floor once he adjusts to the majors is close to what Pence is now. Second, Hunter Pence will likely be making in excess of $10M next season, and more than that the year following. Domonic Brown will be making $0.4M in that time frame and will continue to be less expensive for years after.
Value-wise, Hunter Pence for Domonic Brown straight up is within the realm of possibility, although it would still be a very decisive trade win for the Astros and I would be surprised if it happened. But if there is any untouchable prospect or young player in the Phillies organization, it is Brown, so I would be surprised if they are even willing to go that far to make a deal.
In short, getting back Domonic Brown plus additional top 100 prospects in exchange for Hunter Pence is simply ridiculous. Stranger things have happened--but it would be like you going shopping for a sports car and asking to get 50% off the MSRP. That would be a job-losing deal for the car salesman, and if Ruben Amaro did it, he would deserve to lose his job as well.
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Nice post. Maybe this will curb some of the wacky trade proposals we’ve seen floating around the past few days. Brown+Singleton+Worley+Cosart+Biddle, or Ed Wade hangs up on Amaro!!!
by Stupendous Man on Jul 25, 2011 10:20 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Pence for Oswalt and Brown!!!
by Its Gonna Happen on Jul 25, 2011 2:19 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly…Brown would be unbelievable alone without anyone else.
by Brad E on Jul 25, 2011 10:24 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
How about Biddle Singlton, and Valle
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 10:28 AM CDT reply actions
I don’t personally like that deal, but something tells me, the realistic net worth will be around that.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
I actually
Feel like Biddle is the better prospect than Singlton.
Of course I would go with Biddle, Singlton, J.Rodriguez, and Justin DeFratus (perhaps Hyatt).
I am likely still aiming wayyy too high.
That's not bad
Julio Rodriguez doesn’t have great stuff and his ceiling isn’t super high despite the excellent numbers. De Fratus is a reliever. It’s basically a borderline top 50 in Singleton, a borderline top 100 in Biddle, and two solid B- guys.
That kind of deal would favor the Astros, but not by an extreme amount, and I could see the Phillies considering it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
If Houston were to kick the Phillies 5 million dollars towards this year and next years salaries, could we realistically ask for Brown and some minimal secondary pieces?
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 10:44 AM CDT reply actions
I doubt that the league would allow the Astros to pay more than his remaining salary for this year. Keep in mind that he is on a 1 year contract. He is probably owed around $3 million or so for the remainder of this year.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
That makes sense
Yeah he is owed about 3 million of the 6.9 million he won through arbitration last offseason.
I wonder if we offer to pay the remaining 3 million, how much legitimately this boosts his value?
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree with the thrust of the article. However, I think it’s unlikely that Pence makes $10 million in arbitration next season. But, with that minor disagreement, I agree with the general point.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 10:44 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
How much do you expect him to make? This is his 3rd time around in arbitration being a super two player.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions
$2 – $3 million increase, depending on how his season numbers end up. Obviously it could be close to $10 million. But I don’t see it going over that level. The final season or arbitration could be more than $10 million, IMO. Cory Hart, who had a bigger breakout season than Pence, might be a good comparable.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I just love how media perception rarely affects Houston favorably.
If this were the case, Pence wouldn’t be going anywhere unless someone gets desperate. Just all but reassures this in my mind.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Cosart, Singleton, and one other
should be the deal the Astros try to get.
Asking for Brown is stupid, and though I would like to have him makes no sense for the Astros.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 10:50 AM CDT reply actions
I don’t think asking for Brown is stupid. If that’s true, then the Mets are stupid too. It’s all part of negotiation. And, keep in mind, that it’s not 100% certain that the Astros can’t get Brown. For all we know, Charley Manuel might not like his swing, or any of a number of other team=specific reasons. Teams can have individual assessments of prospects which have no relationship to Baseball America’s rankings. I don’t expect a Brown for Pence trade, but who knows.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes I worded that wrong.
Saying it’s stupid, meaning that the Phillies would probably stop listening after that. The Astros should be looking for prospects that are 1-2 years away to supplement their drafts.
The chances of getting Brown are less than 5%, and the Astros really need to trade Pence this season for the best return they can get, no matter who that team is.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions
Asking is never stupid. If anything, asking for the world makes you appear less likely to just part with Pence for any certain package.
As long as you aren’t being unfair to potential trade partners. Doing that can minimize your trade partners in the future.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions
Cosart and Singleton still sounds like a lot to me. That’s their top hitting AND pitching prospect. I think, realistically, we could hope for something like Singleton, Sebastian Valle, and Jon Pettibone.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 25, 2011 11:04 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Definitely is, but I think you are undervaluing Pence just a tad bit.
While Valle is a nice hitting catcher prospect, his strikeout numbers and lack of drawing walks worries me as he rises to AA and beyond.
Pettibone has nice control and a big frame to possibly add velocity, but his strikeout numbers have been down the last two years, while increasing by near one per inning from last year moving through A ball.
Posturing for more than this and expecting to actually net more before I trade Hunter Pence.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
I don’t believe I’m undervaluing Pence; in my view, people here are overvaluing him. Singleton and Cosart are the Phils’ top two prospects, and teams usually aren’t willing to part with that level of talent unless they’re getting an elite talent in return. Think of what the Red Sox gave up for Adrian Gonzalez, I would say Singleton and Cosart are roughly comparable to Anthony Rizzo and Casey Kelly last season in terms of value.
I expect Wade to give his due dilligence and hold out for a massive haul for Pence, but Pence is not an elite talent. Wade has every right to ask for the moon, but potential trade partners are justifiably leery of giving up a ton to get a an above average (but not elite player). In the end, I predict Wade backs off a bit and takes a less sexy, more sensible offer. I certainly hope he lands a Brown, or a Singleton/Cosart or Brody combo, but I won’t get my hopes up.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 25, 2011 11:28 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
As I’ve said before, I’m not excited about Singleton as a centerpiece. Given his season so far, he probably falls out of the Top 50. He isn’t exactly trending in the right direction.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Of course everyone here is overvaluing the face of the franchise. Singleton and Cosart are pretty comparable to Rizzo and Kelly, but Singleton and Cosart compared to Singleton and Valle is a landslide.
Personally, I think Singleton and Cosart are too valuable for Pence. I think Houston needs to consider something in between Cosart/Singleton and your proposed package. You cannot give away Hunter for Singleton, a catcher in Valle who isn’t the best defender and a projectable arm who is struggling to keep a strikeout rate over 6.5 per nine in high A ball.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
While Valle had nice power numbers last year, he doesn’t walk and he will never be Jason Castro defensively.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
I definitely hope we do better than Singleton, Valle, and Pettibone in any Pence trade. I’m just preparing myself for that kind of return, so I’m not disappointed if or when it goes down.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 25, 2011 11:46 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m certain we can do better, but if not, I expect Houston to keep Pence and let the new GM make a trade with just about the same amount of leverage as July 31st.
Not the same desperation of course by other GMs, but you cannot expect his value to diminish over a few million in raise and a couple months taken away from team control.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
IF Dom Brown is out of the question (which Im sure he is) then a package
of Biddle/Corbin, Singleton, and one A+/Low A SP with high upside would be a good return for Pence.
Biddle Singleton Corbin James
remember we don’t have to trade him, if you don’t get what you want keep him
*should be biddle singleton colvin james
something to that effect
Im not saying we shouldnt ask for that much but that its a very good
return and would be more of win for Astros
Cosart not available
Phillies came out last night and said they aren’t making Cosart available in trade.
Same here. Every GM of every buyijng team says certain players are not available.
It happens every year and usually those “untouchable” players seem to get traded.
What little research I’ve done shows that while there are a few common themes in trades, the variance between them is so wild that labelling things ridiculous is kind of hard.
Would Philadelphia trade Brown and 3 of their other top 10 prospects for Pence? No. But is it beyond the realm of possibility that they would trade Brown plus one other meaningful prospect? I don’t think so.
I do agree that the vast majority of hypothetical trade scenarios made on this board (including a lot of mine) are overly optimistic. But I wouldn’t be shocked to see a Dominic Brown plus Jesse Biddle for Hunter Pence and some cash trade go down.
Deadline deals are crazy; teams get desperate to compete.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 25, 2011 10:58 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Recall what the Astros gave Seattle to rent Randy Johnosn
Freddie Garcia, Carlos Guillen and John Halama
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 25, 2011 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Pretty nice package for two and a half months of the Big Unit.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
No question. Within two years, the Mariners had the best record in baseball, in no small part due to those prospects.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Teams definitely do get desperate before the deadline, as they should be, if they really intend on honoring their fans and seriously chasing a championship.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:01 AM CDT reply actions
Heyman tweeted this 1 hour ago:
http://twitter.com/#!/SI_JonHeyman/status/95507088993824769
Take it for what it’s worth.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 11:14 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm not a big Heyman fan
But given the number of reports in recent days along these lines, I’m thinking the odds are pretty good that he stays an Astro.
by Patrick Harrel on Jul 25, 2011 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
There’s an equal chance that anything we hear prior to a “names have been exchanged” or “deal with Team X is agreed upon” is just posturing. All the “we do not intend to trade him” and “their asking price is prohibitive” is likely just gamesmanship.
I for one am totally ready for the deadline to be here.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 25, 2011 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah this hot and cold charade is getting old.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions
I absolutely hate this guy and his story changes every day, so obviously a way to yank at the chain of rival GMs to make an offer Houston cannot refuse.
You don’t want Hunter? It’s cool, he could help mentor our young players coming through the system. He could be helping your team win a couple World Series, but hey we like him enough to respectably decline your various offers.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions
I have a bad feeling
wandy, myers, pence, and bourn are ALL here on August 1st
I see myself as an entertainer and an Icon. Oh and C finnegan can go fuck himself. @THEREALALLENOU on twitter
but Wade and Mills
will not be here come April 1, 2012.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah which gives the new GM the ability to make trades with friendly partners Ed Wade obviously doesn’t have.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 11:30 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
great point
I see myself as an entertainer and an Icon. Oh and C finnegan can go fuck himself. @THEREALALLENOU on twitter
Really interesting and good point. If we as fans think Wade will be replaced with someone much better at executing trades, we should be hoping for a quiet deadline.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 25, 2011 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Except that guys like
Pence and Bourn will likely never again have as much value as they do now. This offseason they would still be close but the longer we hold on to them the less they will be worth.
I’m not going to believe anything I hear until the dust clears on the evening of July 31.
by Stupendous Man on Jul 25, 2011 11:32 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Id prefer some of those 4 braves pitchers
I see myself as an entertainer and an Icon. Oh and C finnegan can go fuck himself. @THEREALALLENOU on twitter
I would love to get Delgado/Vizcaino/Teheran
But it sounds like the latter 2 are off the table completely.
by Patrick Harrel on Jul 25, 2011 11:47 AM CDT up reply actions
brown vs pence
both are ‘untouchable’…whatever that means. if brown is so good, why doesnt phillie just move him up? is pence a star? of course he is….he is in top five in about 4 offensive categories…..in nl….and high in others… and his is top outfielder… leads in assists… i would want two top prospects. a prospect is a prospect, enough said…wandy is in same class… 3rd best era for lefthanders in nl…dominating pitcher..10m per yr for him is a bargain. bourn is in same class… i look for barmas trade…maybe myers…maybe Q…i dont see the 3 top guys getting traded..but, what do i know…mike h
trades
pence, bourn, and others are young players…. why trade them? they are not expensive…build around them. this yr we have learned a lot, about a lot of players…it is sunnier than it seems. farm has some good hands that are ready. altuve looks good. wallace is really just a rookie.. and is hitting .280…we get our catcher back…if we had a hot dog 5 tool player in left field now it would make a big difference. also, we need better production and defense at 3b… starting pitching is ok…. and weve done a lot of wk with bullpen…there are now a couple of bright spots in the pen. the two guys we got for kepp look like pretty good prospects…who knows? mike h
Pence and Bourn are both closing in on 30 on a rebuilding team/franchise and are only going
to get more and more expensive plus Bourn just hired Scott Boras as his agent which only leads to more and more $$$. Its time to sell high on both of them and get the best possible return to rebuild not only the Astros but the farm system as well.
by StrosSouth on Jul 25, 2011 12:02 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Astros have scouts watching Mike Minor tonight and they have scouts at a D-backs triple A game
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 12:01 PM CDT reply actions
I watched Minor pitch his start and all I can say is that he pretty much dominated a stacked
Reds MiLB consisting of Mesaroco and Alonso. Wouldn’t mind getting minor as long as got either Delgado/Vizcaino and maybe Pastornicky as well.
Minor would be fine for Pence at this point.
Maybe a Spruill or one of their lower guys as well.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Though... Minor and Spurill for Bourn makes more sense.
Bourn just makes a lot of sense for the Braves. More than Beltran or Pence.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I saw him against the Astros MLB minor league lineup at minute maid and he looked solid. Very poised and confident in his stuff.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I have this feeling were going to miss out. Phils are now looking at Heath Bell. So theyll trade the guys we want for him.
And be done trading.
THEN, Wade is going to make a desperate trade.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:05 PM CDT reply actions
When I was embarrassed to make an offer on a Porsche
Long ago my Audi Fox (fancy VW) died a lingering death. While shoping for a new car I walked into the Porsche /Audi dealership. While I was looking at the sleekest, most beautiful black Porsche inteh showroom a salesman walked up , I told him the car ws out of my price range. He said make an offer. I replied my best offer would be embarrassing.,He said Something lek you might be surprised. I refused to make an offer. Ended up buying a Mazda RX-7 (whihc was great car for me , but it isn’t the Porsche). The next week I read the Porsche dealership closed and filed for bankruptcy. I have no idea if I could have gotten the Prosche for what I paid for the RX-7. but because I didn’t ask, I didn’t find out.
There’s a moral here about the Astros and Phillies. If you don’t ask, you may have regrets for decades afterward.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 25, 2011 12:11 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Last night, I watched some of the ESPN broadcast of the Braves-Reds game, and I was shocked by a Bobby Valentine comment: he said that Heyward has a swing which isn’t functional and won’t work at the major league level. Orel Hershiser was critical of the Braves’ young pitcher Beachy. No real point other than to say that we never know how the organizations really value their own prospects.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not saying don't ask, Joe
I’m just saying that fans need to be realistic about what the Astros can actually get.
Of course you start with high demands, but if the Astros intend to actually trade Pence, it’s almost unavoidable that those demands will have to come down a bit.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It is not about being realistic, it is about the possible (however remote).
There are two times when it is great to be a fan – the week before the draft, and the week before the trade deadline. During these times, anything is possible. We think of what could be. NO TO REALISM. I want to believe that I can read that the Astros have traded Barmes to the Phillies for Brown, Singleto, Cozart, and Colvin. I want to be able to say “What the hell is Ed Wade doing? We could have gotten twice that much from the Braves.” I want to be able to discuss the possibilities with others of my ilk. This is the way it should be, because a week after any trade, whoever we picked up is now an Astro, and I will be rooting for them. Whoever we gave up will always have a little place inside, because they were an Astro. This is why it is great to be a FAN. Anything is possible. If I wanted realistic, I would look at the standings.
The problem with wild optimism
Is that it leads to crushing disappointment—and that disappointment causes the situation where fans vilify the front office, who may have gotten all the value they possibly could, unfairly.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Now we have to be fair also? When will it end.
I get what you are saying, I do. But it seems to me that fans get disappointed at losing. That is why they vilify the front office – because we demand a winning team. If we were consistently playoff contenders, there would be praise instead. Nobody would care if we traded Pence for a bag of balls, because we would just sign a free agent to replace him.
I have rooted for the Astros for over 40 years. There have been some really really really bad trades during that time, and yet, I am still an Astro fan. The expectations of the future far outweigh the disappointments. Besides, I think there is always a certain amount of disappointment in every trade. It is just the nature of the beast.
I'm not saying you "have to be" anything
You can say and think whatever you want :)
Personally, I prefer realism, and will try to be a voice of reason now and in the future. It’s up to you to make the choice on how you want to approach fandom, I’m just sharing my thoughts.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
My posts were intended to be tongue in cheek.
But it seems that you have taken personal offense when none was intended. For this I am sorry, and I will endeavor to make myself more obvious in the future.
No, I didn't take any offense
I just didn’t catch the internet sarcasm. Gotcha.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
No doubt Astros fans (any team's fans) are totally irrational on trades and draft choices
and the reason management pay them no mind (which is not to say management is rational).
It would be more worthwhile as a discussion to hear (read) only realistic ideas here (and on the game threads for that matter).. I don’t think it is possible.
My point was not that the Astros should demand the Moon but that the Astros must appreciate that (a) they should not trade Pence or anyone to a team that values him less than the Astros do; and (b) They must decide what Pence (or any player ) is worth to the other team and ask for that value. Determining what that value is might entail asking for too much and backing off later.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Jul 25, 2011 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions
As long as we don't get
a Pinto while aiming for a Porsche.
by Wrigley Faithful on Jul 26, 2011 2:54 AM CDT up reply actions
And yes, I realize my nick is a Cubbie name
but the Astros have their Sally team here in Lexington, and consequently I am also an Astros fan. Don’t ask for logic. I am, after all, a Cubs fan.
by Wrigley Faithful on Jul 26, 2011 2:56 AM CDT up reply actions
If we were somehow able to trade Bourn and Pence for Minor and Brown plus a couple meaningful parts, I’d be pretty happy.
wade is a philly at heart
It appears to me he gives things to the phillys. It would not suprise me if wade sent pence to the phillys for a roll of t.p.
What has he “given” to the Phillies?
His three trades have arguably worked in the Astros favor.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2011 12:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Hands down won the Cartwright for Escalona deal (as Cartwright hasn’t even played a game in Philly’s system.
Barely debatable since Lidge delivered a WS, but he won the Lidge for Bourn swap.
It remains to be seen how the Oswalt deal, which is by far the most important deal, will pan out, but it looks good so far.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 25, 2011 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Lidge may have helped win the WS but I think Philly prob would have taken it without
him. Which imo makes the Lidge for Bourn swap in my opinion esp when you take into consideration how little Lidge has pitched since then and his ineffectiveness when he’s been healthy as well.
I think Bourn has far surpassed the production Lidge has given them, when taking into the account the 4 year/52 million dollar deal the Phillies signed Lidge to after the WS win.
Don’t forget, we also received Costanzo (who was shipped to Baltimore with 5 others for Tejada) and Geoff Geary who gave us a pretty solid season after the trade.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:43 PM CDT up reply actions
If Phils can't land Pence, Beltran, or Upton
Anyway they take Carlos Lee for…lets say…nothing?
Becasue we're lowballing him with SLOT.
And were using a change of ownership as an excuse.
Its proabably a ploy to get more $$$ from Springer – hope its working.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
That isn’t good news, but they better sign him.
Mostly a ploy by Springer.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
BAD FUCKING NEWS guys
George Springer may sign with the Long Island Ducks.
I hate us.
If we dont get him signed. Im done.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:29 PM CDT reply actions
wow. that’s an interesting development.
Is it because the Astros have been making low ball offers, or did Heck overestimate his signability?
Either answer doesn’t reflect well on the Astros. Hopefully this is just a bargaining tactic.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
McLane and Crane can’t afford to let this one get away.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Jul 25, 2011 12:33 PM CDT up reply actions
No kidding
George Springer is SOOOO much more valuable than the 12 pick holding you hostage in the 2012 draft.
I’m calling bluff and Houston will sign him I’m guessing.
Dear Owner Brain trust,
DO NOT BLOW THIS ONE.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Without a doubt, the number one worst thing the Astros could do right now, worse even than giving Pence up for a bad return, would be to fail to sign George Springer. Without Springer, this draft would be awful—and we’ve seen from 2007 what an awful draft can do to a farm system.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
This is your ass Ed Wade. You too Crane.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I just cant believe that were reading about this.
I thought we were past this.
It really shows a lot. Even if we get him signed.
“The Houston Astros still do not put a premium on signing talent for what they are worth”
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
agree
But I wouldn’t say awful. And I’m talking about the ’07 draft class. Awful is not nearly strong enough. That draft & the surrounding contracts/FA signings (which I consider related) represent the greatest collection of bad decisions in the history of critical thinking.
Those events redefined our understanding how much damage could be done to something as large & complex as a MLB franchise in such a short amount of time.
No sir, “awful” is just inadequate for the magnitude of failure resulting from the events surrounding what must certainly be the worst draft of all time. The only word for that is CLUSTERFUCK.
by man07 on Jul 25, 2011 2:34 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
Sorry. Guess time doesn't heal ALL wounds.
by man07 on Jul 25, 2011 2:38 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Better lol.
But I’ll go with “APOCALYPTIC”.
I know it’s a years old rant but I’m still not over it. How could anybody be? Especially with the kind of anguish we’re feeling as we try to live through this historically bad season & try to understand how the organization got to this point.
In fact I think we Astros fans need to name this era in franchise history. “The Great _________”? Too bad …Depression, Chicago Fire, War, etc. are taken. I’m officially accepting suggestions.
by man07 on Jul 25, 2011 4:45 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
He COULD be a top 3 or top 5 pick next year
Considering how weak the class is.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions
He will sign once the owners realize how stupid they will look.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions
Max Scherzer is another first round pick who went the Independent League route.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Aaron Crow is an idiot
I think it’s pretty well documented how much money Crow left on the table. And now he’s a setup reliever.
If he’d taken the deal and had been able to work with coaches in the Low-A’s, would he still be an 8th inning reliever? Or would he be a starter, which is what he was drafted as?
I think Crow royally screwed up his career path.
Footer must be getting inundated with tweets about this ridiculous Tweet on
Springer. Her reply to them took about 3-4 Tweets to get her entire though out about it. She sounds a little POd about it all. LOL
I see this as a sure sign that we've taken guys who will sign for slot (or sliiiightly above) before this and not the BPA.
Signablitly – i.e. slot money is SOOOO important to Drayton and Tal. So we take guys we know who’ll sign for slot. This time, they took arguably the best player available and they came at him with slot, and he and his agent said “Bahhh! We can probably go higher next year, you can pick us number one overall next year!”
Pay him what it takes.
You will lose fans.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:38 PM CDT reply actions
But...
Crane wants to lower the payroll to $60 million, so if Wade wants to even think about keeping his job is to make an “Excellent” trade, if he ends up not trading any of: Pence, Bourn, Rodriguez, or Myers. Then he may as well just get up and never look back at Houston because he’ll be fired ASAP. If he wants to put up a fighting chance, then he should trade away Pence, because the Phillies are to contend now not later when Dom Brown is in his prime, and when Brown hits his prime, the Astros may be in contention. So how about trade Myers to the Yanks for a couple of prospects, Bourn for Minor and maybe another, Pence for Brown and possibly a lower prospect, and Wandy to the Diamondbacks for Tyler Skaggs and possibly one other lower prospect. How’s that sound?
Sounds unrealistic
I don’t see Arizona giving up Skaggs for Wandy, Phillies giving up Brown for Pence, and I’m a bit skeptical about the Braves trading Minor for Bourn (though it could happen).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Im with you on Skaggs and Brown but with ATL's stacked SP in the minors I can see
them dealing Minor for Bourn.
I’m thinking the same, even though 5 years and change of a potential 2 or 3 starter, with a high ceiling for 1 1/2 years of a leadoff GG CF who leads the majors in steals is questionable. Good debate starter.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
You’ve got to look at it this way though, the Phillies are not going to win when halladay utley lee etc. are all 35+. Their time to win is now not later. SO it would make sense to trade Brown for Pence. It’s a win win for the Astros because they’ll be in contention when Brown is in his Prime. And how about we throw in Barmes in the Wandy deal, Drew is out for the season, so that would give them their pitcher plus SS. Would that reel in Skaggs? And Bourn would hopefully pull Minor.
I understand what you are saying but its not like we are trading Willie Mays for
Dom Brown here. I love Hunter and I know that if you put him in another lineup he’ll have or should have better numbers than has currently or has had in the past since he will have better protection but he’s not a superstar, at least not yet anyhow.
Well I’m just saying that the Phillies aren’t going to win when Dom is in his prime so I think it would make sense to trade him. But how about the other trades do they sound reasonable? Bourn for Minor and possibly someone else, Rodriguez and Barmes for Skaggs and someone else, Myers for a few prospects.
No on Skaggs, but I see your point on Pence for Brown.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 12:55 PM CDT up reply actions
For some reason people value Upton over Bourn.
Bourn is the better player.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:42 PM CDT reply actions
draft position and former prospect rating have a lot to do with that. shouldn’t make that much difference, but it’s part of Upton’s reputation.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 12:48 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
He had a good year in 07.
Other than that he hasnt been better than Bourn.
Maybe more HR’s. But Bourn has a higher OPS and BA.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 12:54 PM CDT reply actions
Doesn’t affect anything if he does. @jdfisch: any truth you think to George Springer signing with the Long Island Ducks? #mlbdraft #Astros
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Could have some clause in very small print, where he can leave the contract if he signs with his team. Might as well be, as much as this stinks of posturing.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Oh,
Well thats a sigh of relief.
Still, means Wade better focus more of his efforts on getting him signed.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 1:07 PM CDT reply actions
But there's more to it than that...
I don’t really agree with the premise of this post, though I do think expecting to receive a player like Brown in trade for Pence is silly. There’s way more to it than just Pence vs Brown. In a vacuum, trading Brown for Pence would be silly on the Phillies’ part. But looking at their comparative values in a vacuum would be a mistake.
Because of Brown’s age and inexperience (despite his upside, he’s not going to make the same type of instant impact that Heyward or Posey made), it’s probable that for the next two season Pence’s (short term) value is higher than Brown’s when it comes to increasing the Phillies’ chances at winning a World Series or two before Pence becomes a free agent.
If that is the case, it’s negligent to not include the revenues, merchandising, and increased TV and advertising prices associated with winning a world series when evaluating such a trade.
From this point until the end of their careers, it’s possible to say Brown is worth $100 and Pence is worth $80 (for example), but if the value of Winning a world series in 2011 and/or 2012 is worth $60 to the Phillies, then it WOULD be in their best interest to trade Brown + Others for Pence.
Don’t forget, the Phillies’ window is closing. Utley, Polanco, Rollins, Halladay, Oswalt, and Lee are getting older. Howard is not getting better against lefties. By the time Brown is in his “prime”, those guys may be ready for the glue factory.
I agree that some of these trade rumors are unrealistic, but I think there’s a lot more to consider than just a comparison of the players’ values over the rest of their careers.
by CRPerry13 on Jul 25, 2011 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Okay honestly guys out of these five: Pence Bourn Barmes Rodriguez Myers. How many of these do you think get traded? I think 3/5 maybe 4/5
Well for starters
Barmes is going to be a FA at the end of the season so I would certainly hope he is traded.
Bourn and Pence are pretty much at the pinnacle of value for their careers and there are a number of teams in tight playoff races that need OF help. So I would expect us to get a much better deal now than in the offseason.
Wandy is probably gone if we are willing to pick up some of his future salary.
Meyers is gone if we are looking to salary dump, otherwise he is probably moved in the offseason.
I am going with 4/5
I think it will take an exceptional situation for Barmes to provide any return of value, probably not a real prospect. If that’s the case, I have no problem keeping him. The Astros might get lucky and a team like the Brewers decided they really would like him to solidify their infield. Otherwise, the return probably is less than for Keppinger. I will go with 1 or 2 remaining trades.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I think it makes more sense to give up Barmes as part of a package with one of our better players if we trade with a team which also needs an infielder. To strengthen the package we’re sending out. I doubt Barmes could bring back good prospect by himself, but he could be the factor which nudges another team into giving us a prospect slightly higher in their organizational totem pole—like bumping a Collin Cowgill return for Wandy up to a David Holmberg. (I actually do like Cowgill though and think he’s an underrated prospect, but just giving an example.)
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Jul 25, 2011 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Grant Hogue STOLEN BASE
Better get his HOF speech ready.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 1:48 PM CDT reply actions
This thinking is why the team giving up proven players always gets fleeced
Let’s start in 2001 and see who has been the #4 player in BA rankings each year.
2001: Jon Rauch – Middle Reliever with a 3.72 career ERA
2002: Sean Burroughs – Out of baseball for years, never was any good
2003: Joe Mauer – Future HOF probably
2004 – Edwin Jackson – 55-58 record with over a 4.50 ERA
2005 – Ian Stewart – .237 Career average in 5 seasons with Rockies
2006 – Jeremy Hermida – .258 Career avg, journeyman
2007 – Phil Hughes – 4.54 Career ERA with Yankees, young enough still to be ok
2008 and 2009 were Bucholz and Tommy Hanson, but those guys are a bit young yet to make a full review.
There is no way that I would trade Pence straight up for a guy ranked #4 on Baseball America’s list. That would be a fireable offense in my opinion. You can’t trade a known quantity all-star for one unknown quantity that isn’t even the best unknown quantity there is.
so just judging by '01-'07...
Brown has a 1/7 chance of being a HOFer, a 2/7 chance of being a really, really good player, a 3/7 chance of being a fairly solid MLBer, and a 1/7 chance of being a bust. Given those odds, I’ll take the risk of getting a HOF type player whose prime would be during the next viable time Houston could be competitive against keeping Pence, who will be too expensive and on the decline by the time Houston is competitive again. That said, I’d look to at least get 1 throw-in prospect along with him.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 25, 2011 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Curiosity is killing me:
who did you pick for the 2 really, really good players?
Historically, the extremes are right – for every superstar there is a bust. But please remember, WE ARE THE ASTROS. That means the superstar factor needs to be divided by four and the bust multiplied by a like factor.
(To StrosSouth: I looked but could not find the tongue in cheek app)
now, you’ve got me wondering the same thing. Just past Mauer, I don’t see two really, really good players. Buchholz and Hansen have a chance to be in that category, but I wouldn’t put them there yet.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Snap judgements, but Hughes and Jackson were my two “really really good players”. Maybe oversold a bit.
by Snake Diggity on Jul 25, 2011 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
Mauer HOF? No freaking way
Mauer’s ONE good season puts him on a HOF track? I think not. Mauer’s headed down the wrong road if he wants to make the hall of fame. He’s only on pace for 200 HR and 1,200 RBI. He’s not as good as his contract, and he can’t stay healthy to boot.
Just threw that in there without putting much though
Even if Mauer is not a HOF one day, the point is that he is a HOF type talent.
You have a great outfielder now, but then you have a 1/7 chance of getting someone even better, but a 6/7 chance of getting someone worse.
Also remember this
Pence is going to be fairly expensive over the next two years…under market, but not really cheap. Also, the Astros are not likely to contend serious in either of those years. So that 22M or whatever it would cost to keep Pence around on a very bad team, then hopefully a .500 team, would be 22M in savings if we trade Pence. Those are the only years affected by moving Pence. Yes, we might not be able to sign him as easily in 2014, but there are plenty of players of similar quality in the league to Pence, and maybe enough of our OF prospects pan out to the point that we’d rather pay someone at a different position 15+M per year…plus theoretically that 22M total in savings could go toward that free agent, ensure we enter into our contending years with a player BETTER than Pence. A decent argument could be made that for 2014 and beyond, the Astros would be better off simply giving Pence away right now. I do think the next couple years do matter to people who care about the team, even if we know they won’t be very good anyway, and that pleasure of watching/following Pence on a sub-.500 to possibly .500 team for 2 years is what we are giving up for the prospects. For a 1/7 chance to get a HOF. Although of course, cherrypicking #4 prospects only isn’t very scientific, but i’d take those chances all day.
by auclairkeithbc on Jul 25, 2011 2:15 PM CDT up reply actions
If you take the #7 ranked players over those years...
2001: C.C. Sabathia
2002: Joe Mauer
2003: Brandon Phillips
2004: Kaz Matsui
2005: Scott Kazmir
2006: Chad Billingsley
2007: Evan Longoria
2008: Clayton Kershaw
2009: Brett Anderson
So, if Brown was ranked #7, you’d be dying to acquire him!
by auclairkeithbc on Jul 25, 2011 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
Not Really
Which one of those guys is decidedly better than Pence?
Longoria, Mauer and Sabathia I guess.
Kershaw and Billingsley are probably on the same plane.
Too early to tell on Anderson.
Matsui, Phillips and Kazmir are decidedly below Pence.
So, even taking your best ranking that you could find, the #7 ranking, you still have a 50/50 chance of getting someone worse.
I’d say Kershaw was better and is still younger than Pence was his rookie year. Phillips would be about equal, though you could argue that he’s been a little better. I suppose it depends on what you look at to determine a player’s worth.
Not to mention starting in MLB 4 years younger than Pence.
by SteveBartman_MVP on Jul 25, 2011 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Phillips? Really?
I don’t think Phillips is very elite at all personally. He’s about like Bill Doran was for the Astros back in the day. He’s a nice player, but nothing that I would want to get back in a trade for Hunter Pence.
Never said Pence was elite
You are saying that someone would want Phillips over Pence, which is hard to imagine. It would be like wanting Bill Doran over Andy Van Slyke. Neither are elite, but one is decidedly better,
Still
The fact remains that you cherry picked the #7 slot because it was most beneficial to your argument. Try the #5 rated prospect. Then you get a bunch of Stephen Drew, Jesse Foppert, Joel Guzman, Colby Rasmus, Nick Johnson and Homer Baileys.
i picked 7 because someone else picked 4 (brown's rank)
But my point wasn’t that we should expect that. My point was even if we get NO PROSPECTS back, simply cutting the 22M we’ll have to pay Pence in two non-competitive years, makes it almost worth it, at least in theory. So any prospects we get are bonuses. People who are comparing Phillips to Pence, you have to remember, it is a virtually salary-less Phillips for several years vs 2 years @ roughly 11M per year for Pence.
by auclairkeithbc on Jul 25, 2011 5:40 PM CDT up reply actions
No it doesnt.
We can and will get 2 good prospects back for Pence.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
yea i think we can get 2 really good ones too
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:02 PM CDT up reply actions
of course
that is besides the point. i’d rather have 1 elite future all-star than 2 “really good” prospects. but i’d take either!
by auclairkeithbc on Jul 25, 2011 7:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Phillips’ 2011 salary is $11 million, by the way.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
but we'll be getting a rookie/prospect
not the current day phillips.
by auclairkeithbc on Jul 25, 2011 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Phillips
has had a 30-30 and 2 20-20 seasons, but other than that Pence has had the better career so far. Except that one position you expect that type of offense, the other you are estatic if you get it.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Off topic, but Juri Perez pitched a really nice game today at Tri-City
6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. We can use a few more like that.
I think Houston really wants to keep Pence, and that alone should tell us that it is really important that we trade him.
by MadMartygan on Jul 25, 2011 2:37 PM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Ok got half way through all of the comments
And there are too many people saying they are ok with Pence for Brown straight up. I’m not saying Brown isn’t or won’t be a great prospect/player, but we need a big return from Pence, not one prospect but a plethora of prospects. If we trade one for one we are not achieving our goal of reviving our farm. We need to get several guys who have a chance of making an impact on the ML team not just one.
If we do in fact trade with the Phils I’m looking for Biddle to be part of the PACKAGE sent our way. If we do trade Pence we should trade Bourn as well. Go all in with Pence Bourn Wandy Kepp and (I’m still torn on) Barmes. Bring back as many options as we can for 2013-2015.
by Its Gonna Happen on Jul 25, 2011 3:01 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Guys like Biddle and Singleton are 19 yr olds in A+ and A ball right now. There is no guarantee they ever even make it to the big leagues. The same goes if they throw Cosart into that package. Brown has a 100% chance of being a big league player.
He’s got super star upside and a floor that’s probably pretty close to what Pence is. It’s a safer move that still provides the possibility of an elite talent. He would be under team control until after the 2016 season. In less than half the PAs Brown is already putting up about half of Pence’s home run and stolen base numbers. 5 homers and 3 steals compared to 11 homers and 7 steals. His walk and K rates, although in a small sample size, are way better than Hunter’s. That’s the reason Philly is not going to do it.
It’s entirely possible that Brown doesn’t have a career as good as Pence’s. It’s a relatively safe gamble that he will, and if he does, it’s much more useful to have him in 2014 than it is to have Pence making 12 mil or whatever he ends up getting long term. It’s a godfather offer. You can’t refuse it.
by MadMartygan on Jul 25, 2011 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Pence for Brown straight-up is good
You build up your farm system so that you have a chance to develop a guy like Brown. Players who have a legitimate shot to become franchise cornerstones, true superstars, are very rare. Pence is not one of them. Brown is.
You can sign average, or above average, players out of free agency pretty easily at market value, especially in a decent-sized market like Houston. To get a superstar you have to pay $20MM++.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I hate the face of the franchise thing
I get that you need some sort of player to represent you and yea he is the best player but just because you have a guy that is the best player on your team doesnt mean he should be kept. Yea it will suck without him and we will prob be even worse but if he can get us a good package and i think he will. We need the firesale as in the guys that we have talked about just based on the fact that keeping them gets us no where
Firesale! Everyone must go!
I think “face of the franchise” is more than just the concept of the best player on the team. It’s about marketing, and branding the team with a “face.” The Astros got spoiled, in that Biggio and Bagwell had that role for 15 years. For better or worse, the Astros worked to make Pence the face of the franchise from the moment he was called up. That’s why they had Biggio personally mentoring him in his rookie year.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
what does the face of a franchise mean for a team like this
ive been to the games. The people there dont care who really makes the plays. Sure they like pence but the could just as easily follow a new young player. Altuve got a standing ovation for his first hit. Half the people barly kno who he is and he got more cheerz than pence. They love the team. Their will be a bit of a drop off but in the end if it means helping them rebuild and make the transition a lil bit quicker or make it last longer when it finally happens the fans dont care who is on the team.
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 3:44 PM CDT up reply actions
not trading away guys like Roy O and Berkman ( guys that could have been considered the true fan favs)
when they were at their highest sell point is what got us into this mess partialy in the first place
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 3:47 PM CDT up reply actions
2007 offseason
is where this rebuild should have begun. I would say 2006, but it was not until 2007 that it became obvious to anyone paying attention that we were too flawed to legitimately compete for a championship, or minors were shot, and our payroll was completely out of line with reality. That is about the time I started ranting for a rebuild… and our ownership and management decided that sticking with a lost cause and selling tickets was a better idea than rededicating the organization to long term success.
I’m not saying it’s right or wrong. I’m just saying that there are two different parts of the organization, baseball operations and marketing. It appears that one of the objectives of Astros’ marketing over the past few years has been to use Pence to brand the organization, hoping that he will become an icon who ideally stays with the team for life. Once the marketing group has built Pence up to the fans as the face of the franchise, then it makes things tough on the baseball operations group if they think it make sense to trade Pence. You start getting blogs like this one linked by Timmy earlier: “To whoever the hell is running the Astros, please don’t trade Hunter Pence.”
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
yea i understand that
I am a fan as many of the people on here that follow this team more than the avg baseball fan for sure and when i think about the end result i could care less if they have no marketable players. Its about winning not about making people happy by not acting when it is best to act. Its just frustrating because they waited to trade wandy and myers to this year and now look what happened
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
Teams invest money in marketing and use players to do that. You know if you look at an estimation of value, any big corporation is going to put a dollar amount on things like their logo, I’d guess in the 100s of millions of dollars in some cases. At the top of the Astros main page, you want someone like Pence, not Bourgeois and I’m a JB fan.
"Prince Fielder is too fat even for the Oakland A’s" - Billy Beane
Yeah, thats your typical casual fan
They don’t even know who runs the Astros.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 4:32 PM CDT reply actions
I suspect that the blog was referring to ownership void right now.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 6:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I would rather get a brown and and a biddle and maybe even another throw in for pence
and hope it turns out good even tho there are no garuntees than keep pence and have the price tag keep going up for a horrible baseball team for a few years
Firesale! Everyone must go!
I would go for brown and biddle myself.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano
BA #7 prospect, lefty throwing mid-90s traded for a journeyman with 4.64 career ERA.
Kind of tired of all the “Wade will never get Dom Brown talk”. Me might or he might not, but people get rattled and do crazy sh!t. Kyle Drabek was “untouchable” and now he’s a Blue Jay.
The trade market, just like the stock market, is inefficient and people do irrational things in crunch time when their job is on the line.
indeed makes total sence to think he could pull that off
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions
Philles
are in win the WS now mode. It does wonders for their fanbase and the organizations profits.
It puts them with the likes of the Yankees, and Red Sox as the truly elite teams.
If they really want Hunter Pence, they’ll pay to get him.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 4:40 PM CDT reply actions
preach lol
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Though they could try to get Upton as well.
Who is not nearly as good.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Btw, Mills not playing Wallace ... again.
And we’re facing a RHP.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 4:40 PM CDT reply actions
have you seen his avg the last few months.
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 4:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes but the Astros are throwing a lefty
maybe Mills got confused.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, hes sucking it up.
But let him play, try to get regular playing time, so he can get on a roll.
Hes like a Pinch hitter right now
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 4:42 PM CDT reply actions
Yep
You have to let him play, and figure out if can figure things out. Mills should be fired today for this horseshit.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Heres a Levine tweet on this very subject:
zacharylevine Sounds like Brett Wallace’s playing time is going down for a while. Mills will try to get him going w/favorable matchups.
What the f is a favorable matchup?
That sounds like coach speak for “I think this guy sucks, and I’m trying to save my job for next year.”
Seriously, favorable matchup. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve every heard.
I guess Bouregois gets the starts in LF until he pulls his hamstring again.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Brad Mills is doing everything he can to piss us fans off.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions
and set back the franchise
At this point how can Hinze not be a legit threat to get a September call up. This current FO obviously feels like Wallace is not the guy.
If that is the case, they better hope that Gose flames out in AAA.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Relax a little Neil. I dont think they have given up on Wallace. The kid is
struggling and Mills is trying to win games to save his ass or maybe the FO is trying to showcase Lee a bit. Who knows what the hell is going there anyway. Wallace should have been left in AAA last year anyhow. He was just at the beginning of making the transition 1B when we traded for him. I think they rushed him just bit too early.
Gose is looking pretty good right now....
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions
If Happ would take
Deirker’s advice he could still become a decent 3-5 pitcher.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
what was his advice
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Stop throwing 5 pitches
concentrate on 2, with the occasional 3rd.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Hmm.. Id agree with that.
I think hes nothing more than a #4 or #5 P.
Villar will break out though. I have faith.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I am a Hinze believer, but I do not agree with calling him up this year.
If you do, he will probably be drastically overmatched. I think he will continue to succeed next year, and will get the call next September. That is still a pretty fast path. Three years to the pros. He will stick at that time.
I don’t think they have given up on Wallace. But I think he is pressing right now. Slumps get into your head, and are difficult to get out of sometimes. There are different chains of thought on the situation. Some believe it is best to play through it and eventually things will start going right for you. Some believe in letting you sit and relax, and get your head straight. I think Mills believes in the latter.
I remember my playing days and going into a slump. My coach sat me until my head cleared, and it worked — it took less than five years to come out of my slump.
That’s exactly right. There are different views on handling young hitters in a slump. Wallace has been struggling very badly lately.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If they aer going to severly drop his playing time in Houston then REALLY should
send Brett down to AAA where he can play everyday bc there is no way that sitting him in favor of Lee is gonna help Wallace get the AB’s he needs.
…actually might help Wallace to go to AAA. But the Astros will never do it, because Wallace is a big piece of the Oswalt trade.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 6:58 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Probably looking at stuff like “are the pitcher’s best pitches high or low?” “is he a finesse pitcher or a power pitcher?” “does he have a slider that Wallace probably can’t hit?” etc. I’m not saying I agree with deciding playing time for Wallace in this fashion. But I think those are the kinds of considerations when a manager says he will look for good match ups.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 6:57 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
no thats just from how good he started
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions
A .280 average
Resulting from a .363 BABIP.
I think it is pretty safe to say that his early success was heavily based on luck and the past month has been more in line with reality.
Personally I would send him to AAA and hope he can sort things out with every day at bats in a less pressurized environment.
I was really never all that high on the guy but I figured he could be an average bat and a near average defender to hold down first for a few seasons… I really hope he is not a AAAA player.
DBacks signing Bauer - the 3rd overall pick.
Oh, and looks like A’s are about to sign Sonny Gray.
Hopefully this will help with the damaged Springer negotiations.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 5:30 PM CDT reply actions
Pence rumors
The Phillies are looking at every option right now of who to go for and as of right now it looks like Pence will be on the top of their list because “Mets are asking too much for Beltran. As of right now, the Phillis need another Righty bat. Any deal that goes down for a RF will involve Dom Brown.” Now if indeed the Astros do trade to the Phils, we will be getting back Brown for sure with another or two.
that's great news. really excited. a
john 3:16
Callin BULLSHIT!
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
who tweeted it
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I am too.
I check on Astros rumors every 2 hours or so. Havent seen anything saying that. I think we have a chance to become a very good team again through these trades, and I really want us to do something.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Mills
would just play Michaels in RF instead.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions
thats even worse than sitting wallace
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions
No rumor is "for sure"
Until it’s a done deal. And I too want to see the source. Because I’m not buying it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
when did that rumor come out
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 6:46 PM CDT up reply actions
It was not a rumor. Somebody was saying that if the Phillies want Pence then they will need to start with Brown and then add somebody like Singleton or Biddle.
It was an opinion on his part based on what the Astros were demanding. I remember reading it, but I have read so much lately, I cannot remember where. He was by no means saying the Phillies would agree. The gist of it was that the Astros needed to be overwhelmed to trade Pence, and HE thought the Phillies should make the deal.
o yea that came out on friday i thought u were sayin it came out today. I remember that
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Most Philly fans like pence more than Beltran from most of the reasctions on twitter
When you ask Carlos Lee what his favorite place to play is, and he anwsers with the words, anywhere with a Buffet. You know theirs a real problem.
by orangeblood kid on Jul 25, 2011 6:18 PM CDT reply actions
they should what makes beltran who is hurt so special
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Really jealous of the Philly draft philosophy
Seems like they use the top 10 rounds to take the best player available regardless of the money it will take to get them.
Singleton (8th)
Cosart (38th)
Colvin (7th)
May (4th)
Altherr (9th)
De Fratus (11th)
James (22nd)
Dom Brown (20th)
Obviously these guys are much more talented than the spot they were drafted. Teams just felt they couldn’t sign them and Philly said sign them no matter how much it costs.
At the same time, we’re drafting a bunch of pitchers that couldn’t break a pane of glass with their heater (Bushue, Tropeano, Buchanan) and taking guys with no real tools in the sandwich round (Kvas!) instead of Taijuan Walker.
by Raidas77 on Jul 25, 2011 6:42 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
i wish we had that philosophy
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 6:48 PM CDT up reply actions
I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FOR A WHILE NOW.
Meanwhile, blind homerism has run rampant for the drafts of Bobby Heck and Ed Wade.
Fact is, our drafts have been mediocre to poor, the last 4 years. Whether that is from poor scouting or “signability” issues or both, it is now apparent.
Fact is we have Lyles, Castro (MLB guys, 08 draft) Altuve (Pupura guy, plays above his tools – solid talent) and a bunch of C guys and maybes.
And all those guys up there for Philly were drafted 08 and later (save for Dom Brown) and are a product of good scouting matched with a good minor system and a GM who knows what hes doing.
And we can see that philosophy fully now with the issue of Springer, who actually was the BPA, and now we have a problem with paying him what hes worth (overslot).
This farm system has not been saved. Its been bandaged, yes, but seems to me Drayton and Tal have been doing the bare minimum to get people off their backs. Or Heck and his team jsut really sucks.
Because other than Jordan Lyles and Altuve (who was drafted in 06) there has not been one other Astro prospect on the BA Hotsheet at all this year. Thats just inexcusable 4 years into this new regime. Have we really been getting that unlucky OR more than likely have we been reaching for players who will sign for slot? And now it shows. That has been our philosophy.
Signability is king.
And our philosophy sucks.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jul 25, 2011 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Freedman freedman
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions
Fire...
Brad Mills, Ed wade, Doug Brocail, and Hitting Coach sign back Phil Garner. Hire Andrew Friedman as GM and Jeff Bagwell as Hitting Coach. Find someone else for Pitching coach.
bags turned down hitting coach
lets get Guillen as our head coach lol. Light some fire under this team
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions
that was this year, maybe he’ll come back…Or if Craig Biggio’s son is done playing in High School?? HE could come!!
thats true and i think he is seriously gonna consider it if they offer
i think he wants to become a coach
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed
We’ve been getting killed in the first ten rounds. While we are taking signable, safe college picks; the Rays, Rangers, Phils, etc are taking over-slot kids that can make it to the Show.
John Sickels did a review of Tampa’s top 25 prospects today. Good lord, I have never seen so many pitchers averaging a K per IP.
yea we dont take enough risks with our picks
a team like us needs players with abiltiy not signabilty
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:09 PM CDT up reply actions
If Wade was willing to pay more money for draftees when he was with the Phillies, then that leads me to believe that the problem is more with Drayton than Wade or Heck.
by clack on Jul 25, 2011 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
So drayton and Smith
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jul 25, 2011 7:23 PM CDT up reply actions
It is Drayton from what I understand
It is a combination of different factors.
1) McClain does not put much stock in youth development, apparently Hunsiker was our champion of organizational spending where as McClain was only concerned with how well his MLB product would sell to the fans.
2) McClain’s focus on MLB rosters over time lead to a reduction of financial resources for young talent acquisition and development as those resources were re-distributed to the major league payroll. Even if Drayton has seen the light he has too much money tied up on the MLB roster to be able to afford proper investment in youth.
3) Drayton is a very good friend with Selig… and he has always supported his slotting recommendations as being more rule than suggestion. It may be more an excuse not to spend money than anything else but Drayton does not want to openly thumb his nose at his friends system… which is silly since MLB has repeatedly failed to reject all but the most obnoxious bonus agreements.
5 game streak
He got a hit yesterday after entering the game late.
by Neil Leininger on Jul 25, 2011 8:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the horse is turning things around.
Now who will take him? (Crickets… Crickets) NO one? darn
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Current Series
3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
| Sat 05/26 |
WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1) |
3 - 6 loss |
|
Houston Astros
Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
||
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Won 2 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
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