Player By Player Trade Likelihood

The trade deadline is a little over 2 weeks away.  Below I have handicapped the chances of each player on the 25 man roster getting traded.  I did this last year and liked the outcome.  Who do y'all think gets moved and what should the return be?


Brett Myers- Brett can help any contender fill in the back of their rotation.  Even though he has regressed from last season, the fact that he has been durable and has experience as a reliever should help his value.  He's under team control through 2013, and while his contract is not cheap, it's also certainly not an albatross.  I would like to see a fringe top 100 prospect brought in or multiple B grade prospects.  Odds: 45%

Wandy Rodriguez- Wandy is having another very good year and has established himself as a quality lefty.  He would make a great 3rd starter on any playoff team.  He is under contract through 2014 and could prove to be a monetary bargain over that period if he continues pitching as he has for the last 3 years.  Wandy would probably be the best pitcher available this season.  I think he could fetch a similar haul to the one Houston got in the Roy Oswalt trade.  Odds: 40%

After those two, there are only two types of players on the pitching staff; those who are untouchable as young players with star potential, and those who have little to no trade value.  All of the pitchers below have less than 1% chance of being traded.

Bud Norris- should be untouchable, as he is under team control for many years and should be a good 3rd starter moving forward.

Jordan Lyles- should be untouchable, as he is the brightest young star the 'stros have had in a long time.

Aneury Rodriguez- not sure how his Rule 5 status affects his trade value, but he is young and has no trade value.

J.A. Happ- his performance this season has rendered him useless in trade discussions.

Mark Melancon- Shark certainly would have value to a team looking for a solid late inning reliever, but he should be kept as a possible closer down the road.

Wilton Lopez- Lopez is another player who would have value to a contender as a quality setup man, but again, he should be a part of the solution in Houston as he is relatively young and under team control for many years.

David Carpenter, Enerio Del Rosario, Sergio Escalona, Fernando Rodriguez- these players are all young and unproven, which means that they have little to no value to a contender and should be a part of Houston's rebuilding effort.


Position Players:

Jeff Keppinger- players with his attributes have a lot to offer a contender looking for infield help: strong on-base skills, good clubhouse demeanor, versatility in the field, and a manageable contract.  I might get mauled for saying this, but as a potential type A player, he should fetch a very quality prospect or two.  Similar to what Houston received for Lance Berkman last season.  He has another season of arbitration eligibility, so while Houston won't be forced to trade him this season, his injury history and the state of the franchise makes me think he gets moved, especially when you factor in that Houston has a host of players (Downs, Sanchez, Paredes, Altuve) that might be ready for everyday play at 2B.  Odds: 75%

Michael Bourn- Bourn is a premier defender and basestealer whose bat holds its own.  He doesn't make a ton of money, has team control remaining, and plays a premium position.  He is also a fan favorite and appears to be a solid citizen and good clubhouse guy.  If Houston trades him, the return should be enormous.  Multiple top 100 players or a top 20 type prospect.  Odds: 30%

Hunter Pence- The current face of the franchise is a 28 year old All-Star with solid tools all the way around, remaining upside, and is under team control through 2013.  His salary, while not insignificant, is a huge bargain for his performance.  If he is moved, it should only be in a situation that is an unquestionable blockbuster win resulting in a haul of multiple major league ready top 100 prospects, at least one of whom is a top 30 prospect.  Odds: 10%

Clint Barmes- His defense gives him some value for a team looking for an inexpensive rental shortstop.  That said, I don't think he gets moved.  Odds: 5%

Humberto Quintero- See Barmes, except substitute catcher for shortstop.  Odds: 5%

Carlos Lee- ugh.  18,000,000 times ugh.  Odds: 1%

The remaining players have less than a 1% chance of being dealt.

Matt Downs and Angel Sanchez have value, but are not likely to be made available.

Chris Johnson is young and has underperformed this season.

Brett Wallace is a rookie who is viewed as the 1B of the future in Houston.

Brian Bogusevic and Carlos Corporan are AAAA players.

Jason Michaels has no value to Houston, much less a contender.


The organization is in a much different position this season.  Last year, the team had 2 disgruntled former superstars (one of whom was a pending free agent), an owner demanding drastic payroll reduction, a depleted farm system, and a strong market for their available players.  This year, the team has no significant players in pending free agency, no players demanding a trade, an unsettled ownership/payroll situation, and a rapidly improving farm.  If they make Wandy, Bourn, and Pence available, there should be a solid market for them, but the team is by no means in a position of weakness with regards to trading players this season.  I expect Keppinger to be moved, but beyond that, I will be surprised by any deals.  Of course I'm in favor of rebuilding and hope every player over 26 is moved for the entire Futures Game roster, but I just don't see it happening this season.  What say you?

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