Springer pick - evaluating the Astros' BPPA strategy

Right after the pick I said Springer has a long swing. That is fact but not a knock.

He was the best college PPA. He’s a great fielder, with a good arm, decent plate discipline, and good baserunning that steals. To me that plays in the MLB. The question with him is if he can adjust to get his contact at the MLB level. If he is able to put his bat on the ball he has the ability to be a very good player. He will need to adjust to do this. Even though he has great polish on the other parts of his game I would let his success determine his advancement through the minors. He will strike out so don’t get hopes down or up over that.

I like him over Mahtook.

I agree with your #1 note for the most part. I do think that some pitchers are less likely to fall off due to injury though. I personally think Jungman brought enough talent and durability to justify the BAP at #11. I would have gone with him.

I think Deshields was taken strictly on upside.

1) Some analysts (Jim Bowden – ESPN, Dave Cameron – Fangraphs) have argued recently that pitchers are such high risks that position players of similar talent make better picks in the first half of the first round. They base this claim more on anecdotal evidence than on detailed statistical analysis, but the reasoning (pitchers have a higher injury risk) seems sound enough.

There’s more than just anecdotal evidence. Rany Jayzerli and Victor Wang have each done their own study, using different methodologies. Both of them found that, in the first round, at least, college hitters create more value for the team that drafted them than college pitchers or high school hitters/pitchers.

Wang broke it down by round in a pretty clear way and found that 1st round hitters provided 1.5x-2x more value than 1st round pitchers. In the 2nd round, that advantage tightens up. College hitters did a little better than college pitchers who did a little better than high school pitchers who did a little better than high school hitters. In the 3rd round, the college hitter’s advantage disintegrates and suddenly high school hitters and college pitchers have over 2x the success of college hitters. The moral of the story is draft a bat first, then stock up on pitching. Which the Astros seem to do.

Jayzerli did a very intensive multi-part study (google "rany jazayerli doctoring the numbers the draft " to see his results in detail). He was able to summarize the results in a handful of rules. One of these rules was "College hitters enjoy a sizeable advantage over every other class of draft pick, in both eras, and in every round. " Now, this goes against Wang’s findings in the third round, but they used different methodologies and came to the same conclusion, at the very least, about college hitters in the first round.

I wouldn’t be surprised to find that scouts and scouting directors have a very intuitive feel for the results that Jayzerli and Wang found.

 Saturday draft pick signings: OFs Brandon Meredith (6), Jarvis Reynolds (7), LHP Scott Zuloaga (16), SS James Howick (21) …

 2B Ruben Sosa (23), RHP James Propst (38), LHP James Hardoin (47). Astros have signed 25 of their 50 draft picks.

add Springer, Armstrong, and Gandy more than the other 25 left.

Sounds like Hoke Granger and Gandy Stubblefield are going to be tough signs.

Granger fractured his back, which kept him from getting seen by the Astros’ national crosschecker, and wasn’t able to go the Astros pre-draft workout. This article indicates the Astros are going to follow him through the summer to see how his back heals up. The article also indicates that he’s likely to go to a junior college for a year to up his draft stock unless the Astros offer him more money than they are expected to and agree to pay for his college at a future date.

As for Horace Gandy Stubblefield, he says he’s always wanted to be an Aggie and that “there will be a lot of negotiating.” So I guess it’ll probably go down to the wire on him. He’s got a great name though, and I hope one day his jersey will be an Astros best-seller.