How to make the Astros a playoff team in 2012
This fanposts is to Mr. Wade, or whichever person that runs the Astros front office.
Well I said I'd make a post on how to make the Astros much better in 2012 so I might as well do it now.
Ok, so if we look at our current players, we have a decent roster with some very good players in Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne. Contrary to what you might think, the Astros are not very far from becoming a competitive ball club. Only trading a couple of players for young, talented prospects and aquiring 1 to 2 free agents is all it will take to make the Astros into a great team.
First off, I'll look at the outfield. Right field and center field are held down solidly by Bourne and Pence, but left field has been a major disappointment the past 2 years for Carlos Lee. He isn't a great defender, but his offensive production offset that during his first few years in Houston. Now, he is lacking in power, batting average, and runs batted in. The best case scenario is too trade Carlos Lee to a team in need of an outfielder, a first baseman, or a designated hitter. Hopefully he will start playing significantly better to help increase his trade stock. If it takes paying off a lot of his contract, then we should do so. I'm not sure how much we can get in return, but I think it's about time that we need a new left fielder.
This is where the first free agent comes in. He's a little known outfielder for the St. Louis Cardinals who is tearing it up with a .308 batting average, 17 homeruns, and 51 RBI's. And the season is not even halfway over yet. Berkman would be a great replacement in left field for Lee, which was Lance's original position with the Astros.
The infield will stay about the same, although I'd rather improve at second base and short stop. As Brett Wallace gains more experience, hopefully he will gain more power too. He has a great batting average right now at .303, but he only has 4 homeruns and 21 RBI's. At 3rd base, Chis Johnson needs to be more consistent. If he can return to his form in 2010, then we should be fine there.
At catcher, Jason Castro is a stud defensively. We also have a solid backup in Humberto Quintero. This position will stay the same.
Next is the pitching staff. Bud Norris has shined lately and looks like he will continue to do so. The 20 year old Jordan Lyles has impressed and done well since he was called up from the minor leagues. Wandy Rodriguez has been on a roll and is one of our best pitchers. After these three guys, it doesn't seem like we have much. The other player that I would like to trade away is Brett Myers. He just threw a complete game while giving up 2 runs, 1 earned in the victory. We need to continue getting qualtiy starts from him in order to raise his trade value as well. A suitable trading partner would be a playoff team in need of pitching. Maybe a team like the Brewers who have a strong offense while sometimes lacking on pitching. Getting a quality pitching prospect in return is important. The guy I'm thinking of is, of course, Jed Bradley. Once again, if it takes paying off a lot of Brett Myers contract, then you need to do it. The last pitcher would be J. A. Happ, but he has struggled a lot this year. We will need him to improve to solidify the pitching staff. Otherwise, we could bring in the second free agent that I mentioned.
Now on to the bullpen. This unit has struggled this year, but injuries and a lack of a closer are all that is limiting it. All we need is consistently better pitching and to find that closer somewhere in our ranks and the bullpen will be fine.
Overall, we'd have an above average outfield, an average infield, a slightly above average batting lineup, and an average to slightly above average pitching staff. This team would be much more competitive next year and in the future with these players.
I left out the best part for last, which is the possible 2nd free agent addition. Our pitching staff would have a few good starters but it still would lack a true ace. The player I am referring to is Roy Oswalt. His addition to the Astros would make our pitching staff very good and also give the Astros a chance to be playoff contenders. His contract with Philadelphia is up this year so he will be available to the Astros in free agency this offseason. Roy is still pitching at a very high level and is one of the best pitchers in the major leagues when he is on.
Don't discount Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt just because they are former Astros. Both of these guys are still top notch players and ideal choices for this teams needs. Thank you for reading this a feel free to comment.
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Unfortunately I don’t see Carlos Lee having any trade value regardless the amount of money the Astros are willing to pick up. Releasing him is about the only way that somebody different will be manning left field in the immediate future. In that case it would be an extreme waste of money for a guy that has at least been hitting for a high average as of late. I could see making the case to release Lee if the Astros had someone tearing the cover off the ball in the system and knocking on the door but that’s not the case. I was hopeful that person would be J.D. Martinez, but he has been slowly rounding back into form after his injury.
He’d Bradley was just drafted this year so he can’t be traded until a year has went by, so he’s not an option.
Also still leary about Berkman, especially as an outfielder. This is definitely a rebound year, but you would have to be worried about him decreasing back to last years form. Plus he will only be getting older in baseball years, and an outfielder with a history of knee injuries is scary.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Roy back, but I very seriously doubt that happens.
by conroestro on Jun 21, 2011 2:42 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I would consider Jed Bradley as a "player to be named" in the future kind of trade for him.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Like I said,
Myers would have to get on a hot streak and Milwaukee would have to be in need of starter for a playoff run. The Brewers have a powerful batting lineup, but they do lack on pitching.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
i disagree
the brewers have a very good staff, highlighted by gallardo, greinke, and marcum, and randy wolf. they have only started 6 pitchers this year, and the starting staff ranks 5th in FIP and 2nd in xFIP in the majors. so they have been very good.
even last year’s version of myers would only be a number 4 or 5 for them.
Still no way they would give us that
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jun 21, 2011 2:38 PM CDT up reply actions
exactly
it would be like asking for harper for pence
I wouldnt go that far. The prob is why would you give up a top draft pick from this year
thats gonna be your future for a guy who even if he went on a tear might only have a year or 2 tops left in the tank
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jun 21, 2011 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions
I’m sorry I didn’t mention this in the other thread when I noted the “PTBNL” trade. But I forgot to look up the rule for a player to be named later trade. The trade has to involve players in different leagues. So a PTBNL with the Brewers won’t work. Also, the PTBNL trade has to be completed in six months.
Oh.
I wish we could get him somehow. Maybe he won’t sign with the Brewers.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions
Also, you have to spend money if you want to win.
You can’t be satisfied with Carlos Lee’s performance and just let him hold the team back in LF. It’s a waste of time to keep him in LF, which is worse than a waste of money.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Virtually impossible to contend in 2012
You’re underestimating the vast amount of distance the Astros need to cover to become competitive again. We have a total of three players who have been solidly above-average contributors this season: Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Bud Norris. It would be surprising if any of them contributed star-level, 5+ WAR performances in 2012.
Perhaps free agency could help… but when you look at the 2012 free agent class, it just doesn’t have the pieces necessary. 2013? Maybe, but not ’12. And the farm will not provide much help by then either.
I suppose you could blow up the farm by trading away a lot of prospects, but I would be strongly opposed to that course of action, as I think most of us would.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
i would be so depressed if they blew up the farm
the improvements in the farm system have been the main bright spot this season for the organization. free agency and trades can wait until the astros are 1 or 2 or 3 pieces away, not almost an entire team away from competing.
There is no way on Earth that I would want the Astros to trade away the farm system haha.
The only trades I want are Brett Myers and hopefully Carlos Lee. These trades would result in more prospects for us, not less.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Competitive? Maybe. Contenders? No chance.
Let’s assume Crane decides he wants to field a “win now” team. That would mean no deadline trades of players under team control next year. So let’s run down the roster:
C- Castro would be pencilled in here, but it’s impossible to predict how he will perform.
1B- Wallace has had a good season, and it’s reasonable to expect him to be an average 1B next year.
2B- You have viable candidates in Keppinger (arb eligible), Downs, and Altuve. Altuve has the highest ceiling, but it’d be a crap shoot throwing him in there. Keppinger is likely to cost $4M+ next year. Downs has looked really good, but only in a bench role.
SS- Barmes is a free agent and has a weak bat. There are no prospects on the farm that appear ready for a starting SS job in the bigs just yet. Angel Sanchez is a below average defender with an empty batting average.
3B- Chris Johnson has struggled this year, but the #‘s point to a slight rebound. That said, it’s probably not reasonable to expect him to be an above average 3B next year.
OF- Pence and Bourn are above average for their position, but neither are superstarts. On a playoff team, they would be complimentary players. Lee is on the decline and is literally untradeable, but his performance hasn’t been bad enough to justify releasing him and eating his $18M 2012 salary. At this point he is a slightly below average LF. Bourgeois has solidified himself as an excellent bench OF, maybe even a starting quality CF. There are plenty of fringe prospects in the minors who should be able to fill the 5th OF role.
Let’s assume Crane keeps everyone who isn’t a free agent. Let’s also assume he increases payroll to a reasonalbe $90M. Finally, let’s assume Jose Altuve is the real deal and his 2011 MLE is a good indicator of how he would do in the majors in 2012. WITH ALL OF THOSE POSITIVE ASSUMPTIONS MADE, here is your lineup:
Bourn, CF, $7M- slightly above average
Altuve, 2B, $.4M- above average
Pence, RF, $10M- average (for a #3 hitter)
Lee, LF, $18M- below average (for a #4 hitter)
Wallace, 1B, $.4M- average
Downs/Keppinger/Johnson, 3B, $5M (combined)- average
Castro, C, $.4M- average
Sanchez/Keppinger/Downs, SS, $.4M- below average
Bourgeois, OF, $.4M- above average
Shuck/Bogusevic/etc., OF, $.4M- average
So, without adding any free agents, that’s a very average (~.500) offense, with about $45M in committed payroll. Here’s your pitching staff:
Myers, SP, $11M- below average (for an ace)
Wandy, SP, $10M- average (for a #2)
Norris, SP, $.4M- above average (for a #3, assuming he keeps up his performance this year)
Lyles, SP, $.4M- above average (for a #4)
Happ, SP, $2M- average
Then you’d have a flurry of league-minimum bullpen guys who have performed admirably this year: Aneury, Escalona, Abad, F Rod, Del Rosario, Lopez, which makes an average middle relief and setup corps and would cost a combined $3M. Melancon is an average closer (assuming this year’s performance is legit) and only makes $400k.
So your pitching staff is average to slightly above average and costs ~$27M. That’s a $72M payroll without adding a single free agent and making a LOT of positive assumptions. Given a fictional $90M payroll (which is likely much higher than Crane will actually end up setting it), that gives you $18M to spend, with weaknesses at 3B, C, SS, LF, and SP. That $18M buys you 2 slightly above average players or one star player. You’re not going to get Pujols or Fielder for that price. You may be able to add a decent bat like Lance Berkman or a starting pitcher like Jon Garland, but you’re not going to be able to improve the roster enough to expect playoffs. That would take setting payroll at $120M+, which is not going to happen.
by Snake Diggity on Jun 21, 2011 9:51 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Carlos Lee is what is holding the batting lineup back.
It would be slightly above average with Lance Berkman in it. Also you not giving Hunter Pence enough credit. This guy is a star who is top 5 in the league in batting average and RBI’s. He still has decent power numbers too with 9 homeruns right now.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Again, trading Lee makes things so much easier.
The problem? Nobody is going to take him and the $37-38 million left on his contract (not even if Houston picks up the tab for 2011).
On a side note, Mills has to cut out this ‘respect’ crap… move Lee out of the #4 spot, and put Brett Wallace there (you know, that guy with the .300 batting average that also happens to lead the team in walks?).
E-5-1-50
The Astros have to either trade or release Carlos Lee.
It’s just that simple. It’s kind of stupid to keep him, because you will still have to pay him his $19 million a year if you release him or if you keep him for the final year and a half of his contract.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions
And that's not that much if you think about it.
They are closer to being competitive than most people think.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions
They also need a left fielder (who doesn’t suck), a third baseman, and probably a second really good starting pitcher.
And at least half of those probably need to be star-level, impact players, since we don’t have any others on the roster.
It’s a steep hill to climb.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Jun 21, 2011 9:24 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
2012
well, i agree we should be able to compete at all levels in 2012… but, NO OLD GUYS need apply. are we rebuilding, or not? if we are stick with young players… clee has to agree to trade and it is not likely that he will. i agree with writer if he would and would eat about 80% of salary if i had to. we have pitching. happ is only problem among starters. aneury rodriguez looked good last nite in relief of happ. we have a couple of minor leaguers who are pitching really well. we need to get downs in the game regularly. johnson is coming around, his ba went from .200 to .265 in last few weeks. barmes is good defensively, but offense is lacking. we get the same or better with manzella or better with downs. we need legit 5 tool left field, a young player. Keep myers,…geez, he is a good pitcher and he is ??29 or 30 and we have him on favorable contract. you can always use a ‘horse’ who goes 6 or 7 and only yields 3 or 4 or 5 at most and sometimes gives up little or nothing. happ needs to go to minor leagues or bp…get squared away. bullpen is starting to look good!! some of young guys are coming around, see latest performances. lopez and melancon can take care of 8 and 9 inning. we could use a strong middle reliever to add to the bunch that is there. are we rebuilding or scratching our ass. magnus
No were not rebuilding.
We just need a couple of much needed roster changes, not a complete overhall.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Im fine with maybe adding one big name to become compettitive but we wont contend
Maybe if by miricle we could grab reyes for a decent deal. ( decent as in not cripeling like lee s contract was) we could be a different team with him and maybe at some point altuve up the middle. Still unclear because Lee holds you back next year as well.
Firesale! Everyone must go!
Like I said, Carlos Lee is holding us back in left field.
Replacing him is a major priority.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Our offense is pretty solidly average to below average. We are tied for 8th in OBP (.318 – pretty much right at Carlos) and 12th in slugging (.377 – Carlos actually raises our average here). It is insane to say that Carlos Lee’s offense is holding us back. His defense is awful, but our offense would improve if we had a team of Carlos Lee’s.
by seanbergmanrules on Jun 21, 2011 7:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I want to see J.D. Martinez in LF
And a lineup that looks like this:
CF Bourn
2B Keppinger
RF Pence
1B Wallace
3B Johnson
LF Martinez
SS Sanchez
C Castro
P Starter
Seriously get this group out there for 2012 and there’s hope
B^2
Organic Chemist PhD Student by day...Houston sports fan by night!
Dont take this the wrong way cause this isnt really addresed at you but
What is everyones fascination still with Sanchez. I get it he had a great month of april but he hasnt hit over 200 since then. That brings his avg for the year to .250 which at SS would be ok. BUT he cant field the position. First his FLD. % is .958 this year at SS but you also have to add the plays that he just cant make because of his range there. They cant count as errors but there are better options that could hit allmost as good if not a bit better that can make those plays.
Now i would be one of the first to cheer if we signed Reyes to play SS next year and im also fine if that doesnt happen and lets face it, it wont. But how can anyone still think that our best option is Sanchez. I am hard pressed to say he even makes the team next year cause i think there will prob be a better option out there in some shape or form.
Only other thing for 2012 is i dont see Kepp being here just due to the fact that they are openly shoping him and he has value for a contender so someone is gonna make a push to get him if anything by the deadline. Other than that it works. Really just wish we had any other option at third
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jun 21, 2011 3:38 PM CDT up reply actions
I wanted Matt Skole at 3rd base.
Hopefully he’ll return to Georgia Tech though.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions
Heres the thing to be a playoff contending team
You need dominant pitching and great defense, and power.
Also, you cant have 3 black holes in your lineup, certainly not 4. Barmes, to me, is great defensively, his bat is meh – but I think it will come around and he’ll be better than Everett – so I say we keep him there. Johnson has power but it might not be enough. I really like Johnson, but he’s a stopgap. Downs -probably the same thing.
Castro -we know he’s a good defender, but will his bat play? If he can hit like Yadier Molina, I’m fine with that. Bourn provides excellent defense, and is dangerous when on base. Pence is getting better by the day, and I expect he’ll keep up that production for 3, maybe 4 years. Wallace is a high average, low power – so far – 1B – that’s fine. So, we need someone with power and hopefully a high OBP in LF – not Carlos Lee – I don’t know if JD MArtinez is ready and can produce that – send him to AAA –
Can we get Paul Goldschmidt from the Dbacks? He profiles as a power hitting OF. I think we should really try and get a guy – through trade, no ridiculous long contracts – that can mash. Can Matt Kemp be pried away from the Dodgers? These are just random thoughts…. Berkman would be great, I mean GREAT. But, he I think he’s been burned by Houston and might require a huge contract.
Our pitching though is decent, not dominant. We must trade Myers, and honestly if we can trade Happ I’d love to. Keep Wandy, unless you’re floored by an offer. He’s cheap and he’s our ace. Lyles is progressing nicely. Norris is as well. That’s a good 1-2-3. We might be able to sign RoyO again in FA, or maybe a guy like Annibel Sanchez? I think hes a FA. BUllpen you’re gonna have to get some proven vets, to go along with Melancon and Lopez, maybe Anuery Rodriguez – guess you could let him try for the rotation too – he looked good yesterday.
Bench – use your own guys. We have plenty of guys that can take over Jason Micheals expensive role. Let Altuve fight for 2B in spring training, as well as Keuchel, who I think will be a very good #3 – possibly a Wandy type picture later on.
That’s it. But you have to get a guy or guy(s) with more power and more OBP than we currently have. Also, it wouldn’t hurt to get an ace to go along with Wandy and Norris. I guess if you can trade Wandy for Betances or whoever (Shelby Miller!! Jk…) then you do that.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jun 21, 2011 4:15 PM CDT reply actions
I forgot to mention a power hitting 3B with great defense.
LIke Rendon. Hopefully he balks at Washington’s offer, and we can take him #1 next year. We need good defense on that hot corner, I guess for now Downs is an upgrade over CJ. But, man I really liked the potential of CJ’s bat… oh well, off to AAA or Boston he goes.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jun 21, 2011 4:19 PM CDT reply actions
We could trade Wandy or Myers possibly
For Goldscchmidt. DBacks have plenty of Offense they need good pitching. We might be able to geta lower level arm as well, especially for Wandy – hell, a higher level arm and Goldscmidt for him, maybe Tyler Skaggs? Wandy would improve the Dbacks ten fold in a so so division so far.
Also, I realize Matt Kemp isnt realistic, but maybe Jerry Sands is? He’s young and a good bet to hit 30 HR’s. Regardless, we have to find guys that are blocked, with power and good OBP. Pitchers are going to be harder to get in trades – especially front line starter types.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jun 21, 2011 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions
any deal with the dodgers is out of the question. MLB is taking over the team
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jun 21, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Maybe in the offseason once the team gets purchased
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jun 21, 2011 7:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Not necessarily true
MLB allowed the Rangers to make several trades last year while they were under the control of MLB.
by Matt McDougle on Jun 21, 2011 7:14 PM CDT up reply actions
The Astros aren't getting Kemp, but
“Also, I realize Matt Kemp isnt realistic, but maybe Jerry Sands is? He’s young and a good bet to hit 30 HR’s.”
Kemp might actually be more realistic than Sands for a contending team to try to acquire due to the Dodgers’ financial situation.
by Matt McDougle on Jun 21, 2011 7:13 PM CDT up reply actions
what would we have to give up?
pence, lyles, springer, deshields?
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 21, 2011 8:26 PM CDT up reply actions
that would be all of them
as a starting point…but i just don’t see either party attempting to go down that route.
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 21, 2011 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Just for Sands?
I would think Lyles by himself would be comparable in value to Sands, but regardless, I agree that I don’t see either team going for it.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Is it just astro players and prospects that you think so lowly off?
You seriously think Jerry Sands for Pence, Lyles, Springer, Deshields plus others is reasonable, but Pence is not worth Delgado and Vizcaino. Wow.
This may be about Matt Kemp, not Sands.
by MadMartygan on Jun 21, 2011 11:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Kemps not worth that.
I was thinking Sands for Wandy or Pence or something along those lines.
Also, LA is in dire straits, they might not have the money to keep Kemp is why I brought it up. But, yeah, I wouldnt trade the farm for him.
by YohannDookeyblue on Jun 22, 2011 12:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Sands
is a reasonable target i suppose, but i don’t see the dodgers adding salary.
by auclairkeithbc on Jun 24, 2011 12:22 PM CDT up reply actions
See my response below
It was posted in the wrong place.
To sum it up briefly: I clearly said I wasn’t talking about the Astros getting Kemp.
by Matt McDougle on Jun 27, 2011 2:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Only way to contend in 2012
Right now left field, third, short, and catcher are below average. The bullpen is horrible and the starting staff is inconsistent especially from the 4 and 5 spots.
Sign Jose Reyes at SS, Ludwick or Willingham for left (Lee to bench), CC Sabathia for rotation (if he opts out), and Heath Bell for bullpen.
That scenario is not realistic. Goal should be to improve and try to get close to .500 in 2012 and shoot for a winner in 2013.
I wouldn't use free agency too much to get better.
Using the farm is important to sustained success.
by RamblinWreck7 on Jun 21, 2011 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Someone brought CC up in another convers
Y would he opt out? I dont get this theory. Its the Yankees. few people want to leave once they get there. We dont need to sign an OF player at all considering how that is one of our better positions and up and comming positions in the Minors. JD and Wates frontrunning the list. I am all for getting Reyes or Phillips if the reds dont pick up the option. Yes we have Villar and Meir in the farm but neither is for sure to make it to the majors and even if they do they have both had questionable hitting. I dont think our bull pen is as weak as people think just very raw and young. Lopez (if his arm doesnt fall off) and The Shark are solid guys at the back end of it and we have some guys that could fill it out but i dont think we need a big signing there
Firesale! Everyone must go!
by astrosfan1989 on Jun 21, 2011 7:08 PM CDT up reply actions
is the team any good
sure… this is a good team… a lot of good parts..need to get set for 2012.. pence is best right fielder in nl….bourne is fastest in nl…bourgeois is 2nd fastest…. downs needs to play every day..at 2b..with kepp at ss…or vice versa… clee might agree to go to contender… maybe al…maybe make an offer to get oswalt bacik and tell him to get back fixed and have him for next yr…. offer ?? barmes…??? phillies might go for it if we picked up some of oswalts salary.. dont pick up much.. this is a big risk…magnus
You must not have read my subject line.
“What would we have to give up?
pence, lyles, springer, deshields?"
None of the above because I said the Astros aren’t getting Kemp. My point was that for a contending team(i.e. not the Astros) Kemp might be more touchable than Sands due to his contract.

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