Saturday Liftoff Links

by Timothy De Block on Jun 11, 2011 5:00 AM CDT in Link Dumps

While the Astros were opening a series against the Braves, I was pondering the days when this series used to be a good rivalry, then I put together these links together.

Fixing the Astros

Ultimate Astros " Justice: Berkman has plenty of advice for new Astros owner
Richard Justice is at it again, he talks with Lance Berkman about what needs to be done to fix the Astros. It's easy to say in a conversation, but more difficult to execute than it's made out to be.

How not to solve the Astros’ problems | HardballTalk
Craig Calcaterra has an interesting response to Justice's article.

Is Billy Beane tired of the Oakland mess yet? - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN
Ken Rosenthal thinks with some GM jobs opening up next season it may be time he moves on to a team with more room for error.

These are Your Soon to be Astros

Ultimate Astros " How to watch Astros draft picks in NCAA super regionals
Zachary Levine gives details on where you can watch the players drafted by the Astros. I'll also add that Morgan Ensberg is calling games for the Vanderbilt vs Orgeon State series, so be sure to check that out.

Ultimate Astros " Astros sign second-round draft choice Houser
In case you missed the Astros have signed second round selection Adrian Houser and will be sending him to the Gulf Coast League to begin his career. I'm excited that they signed Houser so soon to get his career going.

Statistics

Evaluating catchers: Quantifying the framing pitches skill
Max estimates the impact a catcher can have by framing pitches effectively. If you download the excel sheet with the rankings you'll find something surprising. Jason Castro is well above average and J.R. Towles is well below average, but that's not the surprising part. Brad Ausmus is only slightly above average and Humberto Quintero is slightly below average. Both are close enough to 0 that they could both be considered only average.

Tweet Comment 8 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

From a model standpoint, that’s probably the best study I’ve seen for investigating catcher pitch framing value. The model uses multiple regression analysis to separate the impact of the catcher from the pitcher and umpire in affecting the ball/strike call. Like previous studies, the impact of catcher pitch framing is rather large. The study concludes that a good pitch framing catcher is about the same as a pitcher-friendly umpire. If your team’s pitchers could have the equivalent of a pitcher-friendly umpire, while the opposing team’s pitchers face a neutral umpire, for a full season, then you can see why the impact is significant. So, a catcher like Jason Castro, could add a full win to the team based just on his pitch framing ability (not counting any other skill).

Timmy, you may or may not be right that -1 and +1 are close enough to zero to represent average. But there isn’t enough information there to know whether 1% probability changes are significant are not. The spreadsheets don’t show the underlying data or sample size. It’s possible that the difference is significant.

I’m not surprised that Quintero is slightly below average for pitch framing. Quintero’s defensive value over his career mostly has been associated with the traditional catcher defense skills, i.e., throwing out runners and blocking pitches. I suspect that Ausmus was measured for his last year or so with the Dodgers, but I can’t tell without seeing the data. The data for previous studies I have seen indicated that Ausmus’ pitch framing value was very high during his peak years and was gradually declining as he aged to the point that was moderately to slightly above average by the time he left the Astros. I’m not sure why aging could affect pitch framing value, but there could be some hypotheses for it.

by clack on Jun 11, 2011 7:38 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs

That pitch framing stuff unsettles me. I don’t know if it is worth consideration.

Berkman is a great player. He is not a great person to ask how to run a winning baseball team. Damn, he crushed the ball at MMP this week. I went to 2 of the games and he was cheered at the plate and even recieved standing applause after the HRs.

My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.

by Shamus on Jun 11, 2011 9:58 AM CDT reply actions

From the television viewpoint, it also seemed like there were a fair number of Cardinals fans there, too, which probably helped with Berkman applause.

As for Justice’s column about Berkman’s advice, I was put off by the tone (from Justice, not necessarily Berkman) that Crane should look to Berkman, Bagwell, and Biggio on how to run a baseball team instead of quantitative analysis. My description slightly exagerrates what he said, but I got the sense of a push-back against the view that Crane’s people would bring a more statistical bent to the front office.

by clack on Jun 11, 2011 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Billy Beane

If he leaves Oakland, it would definitely be interesting if he came to Houston.

by jmike on Jun 11, 2011 11:13 AM CDT reply actions

I thought the same thing. Doesn’t seem likely, but it would be interesting.

by clack on Jun 11, 2011 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs

Wandy Rodriguez's dominant run last year

came when Castro became his personnel catcher. Quintero is an over-rated defensive catcher.

by Neil Leininger on Jun 11, 2011 1:26 PM CDT reply actions

Brad Mills and Coaching Staff

I completely agree with Berkman when he says that the Astros have the right guy in place at manager. I think he’s very competant and sociable, he comes from a winning environment in Boston, and does a great job at getting everbody reps. I know his big flaw this year has seemed to be letting players ride out their hot streaks but you never know what goes on behind the scenes in a club house, he may have his reasons. I like what Arnie has been able to do with our pitchers and the respect he commands from all the players. The only coach I’m not really impressed by is Mike Barnett the “hitting coach.” Don’t get me wrong, the Astros have been hitting, but Chris Johnson is my prime example of why I think he might be ineffective as the hitting coach. All season CJ has been the best candidate, probably in the MLB, for a 3 pitch strike out. He hasn’t been able to progress much if at all. I put this on CJ first, because he is the hitter and the one who is ultimately responsible for hitting the ball. Barnett is a close second though, he is watching every swing, every at bat, from right there in the duggout and hasn’t been able to coach the problem at all. Maybe CJ is uncoachable, or maybe Barnett isn’t a coach…

by Its Gonna Happen on Jun 11, 2011 4:10 PM CDT via mobile reply actions

Yeah

Im not a big fan of Barnett’s either. Love, love, love Brad Arnsberg. And am okay with Mills – it really bugs me that he adds “y” to everybodys last name (I heard him say Happ"y") but thats not important. He does okay with what he has. Now if Manny Acosta came back and wanted to coach, Id kick Mills"Y" out in a heartbeat. Look what he’s done with mostly the same kind of scrap with the Indians.

Im wondering when theyll call up Max Ramirez. I guess hes not as good calling plays, or framing pitches?

Also, Sign Hoke Granger!

by YohannDookeyblue on Jun 11, 2011 5:25 PM CDT reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

The Importance of George Springer

by ntn 12 days ago

27 comments | 2 recs

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Current Series

3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium

Fri 05/25	WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3) SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2)	3 - 1 win
Sat 05/26	WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0) LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1)	3 - 6 loss
Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes @ Los Angeles Dodgers True Blue LA Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Dodger Stadium J.A. Happ vs Chris Capuano Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. Complete Coverage >

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	26	20	.565	0	Won 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	22	.531	1.5	Lost 3
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	24	.478	4	Lost 1
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	22	24	.478	4	Won 2
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	27	.413	7	Lost 1
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	31	.326	11	Lost 11