Astros Fantasy Baseball Week 11: Praising....Carlos Lee?
Its easy to lose focus on the Houston Astros on draft week, especially when they stand at 24-39. That's pretty irrelevant. Even when Bud Norris nearly tossed a no-hitter last night, it barely registered on the nation's consciousness.
Once again the Astros were their worst enemy in the opener against the Cardinals, stranding a hoard of baserunners, while Brett Myers served up a 3-run double to Jake Westbrook, the man with eight major league hits. You could question the wisdom of throwing a first pitch slider in that situation, and the manner of Myers start after a great outing against the Cubs could be seen as a setback. His 2011 ERA stands at 5.02, and he has allowed an NL leading 16 home runs. And this was the guy who was supposed to be leading this pitching staff.
Fantasy owners meanwhile continue to stay away from Bud Norris, and I wonder if this will change after last night's start. There is the small matter of the start being against the Cardinals, someone the 26-year-old definitely has the hoodoo over, improving to 6-2 against the Redbirds with a 2.45 ERA.
This interesting nugget talks about pitchers who throw sliders a high percentage of the time might be more likely to experience arm injuries, and Norris fits into that category, relying on his slider 34.7% of the time. Something to keep an eye on.
Meanwhile the week's biggest surprise has been Carlos Lee, who has drawn eight walks in the last seven games. This is vaguely interesting because he managed nine in the previous 52 games. Better late than never Carlos. Exclude the shambles that was April and his numbers are actually pretty good.
If you are really struggling for a plug in the outfield, then Lee might not be too bad a shout. His HR total is disappointing, but the RBIs and BA should compensate for that. His slash line since May 1st reads at a competent .328/.374/479.
More after the jump.
It is important however not to go overboard. Even with his recent 'success', as of last night his season's OPS still stood at .715, the same as Michael Bourn.
Hunter Pence meanwhile continues to rake, reaching 20 games on his hitting streak. On the fantasy hitting categories over that span he has 3 HR, 14 RBI, 16 runs, a .388 BA and a solitary steal. Is he a sell-high candidate right now? I'd think so. He's probably going to cool down soon, and the hitting streak might cause some to overvalue him and trade you back something good.
You can still find pitching depth on the waiver wire, especially if you get ahead of your rivals when players are called up. Arizona's Josh Collmenter, who was recently transferred to the rotation, threw five scoreless innings last night and could be a good grab if he's still available.
The Dodgers' Dee Gordon is available in most leagues, as is the Padres Anthony Rizzo.
Jason Bourgeois may have come off the DL, but has struggled to get playing time so far with Lee doing well in June, and Keppinger reinstalled at second base. Whether he gets enough playing time to nab enough steals to make him worth having on your fantasy roster is up in the air.
Wandy Rodriguez meanwhile is available in a third of all ESPN leagues, and is a good pickup for next week. He will return to the team on Monday for the series finale with the Braves. He pitched four innings giving up one run for the Corpus Christi Hooks, and sounded pleased with his outing.
You can follow the league's progress on twitter at #astrostwitterleague. Wallace's Tomballers still own a massive nine point lead, and while my Minute Maiders have been languishing mid-table I did pass Native_Astro last night. Winning.
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Sliders
Just on a subjective or anecdotal basis, I tend to think that sliders are more stressful on pitchers’ arms than fastballs, and perhaps curve balls. Anecdotally, split fingers are also considered stressful on pitchers’ arms. However, the small study by fangraphs (which you referenced) doesn’t prove much, in my view. First, the study results indicated that the difference (in terms of DL visits) between the sample of high slider starting pitchers and the control group of starting pitchers was small (1 DL visit per year for slider pitchers vs. .91 visits per year for control group), and it doesn’t indicated whether this is statistically significant (an important question because he samples are small). Second, the DL visits are not limited to arm injuries, which at least raises some skepticism of the study results.
I recall a time in the 1980’s (after the Astros’ suffered decimating injuries to their drafted pitchers) when the Astros banned sliders among their young minor league pitchers because of the injury risk. Around the same time, I vaguely recall that Astros pitching Roger Craig, who resurrected Mike Scott’s career by teaching him the splitter, also pushed the splitter among minor league pitchers, and this later was blamed for a rash of pitching injuries. Whether that blame was justified or not, I don’t know.
by clack on Jun 10, 2011 3:10 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Irrelevant of whether I believe it or not
I’m sure someone argued once that long toss is the reason most pitchers dont throw in the high 90s.
Everyone’s got a theory on pitching injuries, and while some are more widely accepted than others, its like stepping into a bog.
that should read “pitching coach Roger Craig” in case any one wondered.
by clack on Jun 10, 2011 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
By the time Scott had mastered the splitter Craig had been teching the splitter to many
of Giants staff and minor leaguers as well. That period of time saw a lot of pitchers toying with the splitter but I dont recall a huge number of injuries occurred by those who threw the pitch. It can be one of the most effective pitches around if thrown correctly too. We need to see a come back of the pitch imo.
Slider is very hard on the elbow.
The (UCL) ulnar collateral ligament in the elbow is fine coming straight down with the amount of torque but the twisting motion and the snap to get the slider break is what pulls on the UCL where it attaches to the Ulna. Tore my elbow up throwing slider and when I came back was told not to throw the splitter because it could hurt my elbow. I havent read anything scientific that would say its any worse than a change up or fastball.




























