Jordan Lyles, The Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time Player
by David Coleman on May 28, 2011 4:42 PM CDT
in Houston Astros News
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PrintWell, the Astros did it. Some of you are probably saying this couldn't come too soon. Some of you are cynically saying that this is Ed Wade's last-ditch way of saving his job. Me, I'm not suprised, because I think this was the Astros plan all along.
Obviously, they didn't plan on Wandy Rodriguez getting hurt. But, I think the Astros were prepared to bring Lyles up at the first opportunity after the middle of May. They knew after spring training that Lyles would be the first player called up to go into the rotation, no matter that they had a couple of other guys at Oklahoma City who might be better suited to going into the rotation.
That didn't matter, though. I think the Astros thought that Lyles was ready to play in the big leagues out of Kissimmee. Whether it was due to money issues, wanting to avoid Super Two status, or just loyalty to the two guys ahead of him in the rotation (Nelson Figueroa and Aneury Rodriguez), they sent him down. But, they knew that he'd be tapped some time.
That time appears to be Tuesday, as Lyles will join the team this weekend before starting against the Cubs on Tuesday. I'm just not sure he's ready. As has been pointed out on this site before (by people smarter than me), Lyles has a pretty high hit rate and his strikeout rate has plummeted in Triple-A. His ERA looks good, but that could be an illusion. His home run rate is fairly low, and his batting average on balls in play is slightly below average at .309. He's also got his highest LOB percentage since he was at Lexington.
Maybe Lyles is just learning how to pitch. He's not walking batters, which is a good indication. He's probably going to take some lumps, so I guess the Astros figure it's time for him to take those lumps at the major league level. For better or worse, we'll see what the organization's top prospect has over the next few months. I hope that's a good thing.
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Lets hope he can hold his own. At least Chicago isnt the best of teams.
On a side note Ross Seaton is having a good start so far at Corpus. 2 in a row for him maybe?
I hope, but he just gave up three runs in the fourth. Maybe he can get it going again.
by conroestro on May 28, 2011 5:14 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Stupid move.
Go ahead, kill his confidence. Maybe we can do what the Reds did and move him to the bullpen when he struggles like Mike Leake.
Super Bowl XLV Champions, the Green Bay Packers!
Well I suppose it's not the end of the world here.
Kershaw and King Felix were up at 20. Now that it’s happened I’m excited.
I think it’s easier to do that with young elite power pitchers.
by clack on May 28, 2011 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
His strikeout rate just isn't very high this year
That’s my main concern, if he had struck out a handful more batters I would be more OK with his move.
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I'm holding out hope that his strikeouts are down due to him pitching to contact.
I seem to remember about midway through last season, his strikeout numbers fell steeply, but his groundout rates improved at the same time. Unfortunately, a quick Google search didn’t reveal the game logs to back this up.
Looking on the bright side, he’ll be in the majors working with Arnsberg, he’ll have his catcher from AAA likely as a battery mate, and there shouldn’t be much pressure on him since he knows he’ll probably be sent back to OKC once Wandy is off the DL regardless of his performance. I still think it’s a dumb move, but the optimist in me thinks this could work out well.
Whatever it is its done.
I know im gonna be watching this game and im gonna be excited just because he is our number one prospect and i do really hope he can show he deserves this.
by astrosfan1989 on May 28, 2011 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions
this season thus far
i sure hope lyles proves us wrong.
"That's funny. You like Samurai Swords, I like Baseball!"
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by allphilla on May 28, 2011 5:28 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think
He’ll do pretty good. I’m sure he’s been pitching to contact in AAA most of this season, and if it doesnt work up here, they’ll get him back to the K king. He handles himself very, very well for a 20 year old and can take the pressure/ He still has untapped velocity in his fastball. and I wouldnt be surprised to see his Fb sitting at 92 or 93 Tuesday and 94-95 by seasons end.
by YohannDookeyblue on May 28, 2011 6:22 PM CDT reply actions
I have to say it troubles me if he tries to hike his fastball velocity when he gets to the big leagues. That is one of the reasons that the injury risk is so high when young pitchers debut in the majors. Given the adrenaline and perception that they need to ratchet up their game, the over-throwing can be a big negative, both in terms of injury risk and command/control. Lyles probably has been made aware of this, because he said in spring training that he would not get too excited and plans to resist the urge to increase his velocity when he makes it to the big leagues.
by clack on May 28, 2011 7:00 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
True
He doesnt have overpowering stuff, and is definitely more of a finesse, smart pitcher, but he has an easy delivery. If he gives a little more it doesnt seem like it would put him in danger of hurting himself.
Altough, you’re right, I might be putting too much into fastball speed, I most certainly wouldnt mind him being a Greg Maddux, perfect control type of pitcher either – which I could see him becoming.
Really I just want him to be our #2, and better than J.A Happ for Christ’s sake! Haha
by YohannDookeyblue on May 28, 2011 7:54 PM CDT reply actions
I don't get it David
Lyles is one of the most exciting prospects (heck, possibly the only exciting prospect) in the thinnest farm system on the worst team in Majors. Yet, all we read day in and day out are these cynical pieces about why Lyles shouldn’t be called up this season, or how he’s going to the team money as a potential Super Two, or how he’s going to injure himself from the increased work load.
The fact is that Lyles is ready for the Majors. Period.
If he costs the Astros money down the line, then so be it. If he gets injured, who’s to say the same thing wouldn’t happen a year down the line? And are you really trying to say a guy like Ryan Rowland Smith who’s done absolutely nothing to impress this year is more deserving? It’s absolute B.S.
Let the kid play and show what he’s made of! Even if he fails, so what? Not like this team is playing for anything this season anyway!
the problem is
he’s probably at least a year away from being arguably ready. and he’s probably at least 2-3 years away from being potentially good. the astros have really messed up moving lyles up too fast. this kid isn’t a prodigy. he’s a very good pitcher…or will be, if they don’t screw him up too much.
by auclairkeithbc on May 29, 2011 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
Ultimately
I see Lyles as a James Shields #2 starter type. Dominating performance for a few weeks, then he falls off. Up and down, though he has the potential and mental makeup to be better.
by YohannDookeyblue on May 28, 2011 10:17 PM CDT reply actions
I could see that
but he isn’t going to be james shields at this point in his career.
by auclairkeithbc on May 29, 2011 11:38 AM CDT up reply actions
James Shields
Is a very good pitcher. I will be very happy if Lyles reaches that, especially here in the NL Central.
by YohannDookeyblue on May 29, 2011 1:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't understand why people are concerned about his strikeout rate.
Strikeouts don’t matter, only ERA and wins do.
lolwut?
Strikeouts DO matter. If everybody is putting the ball in play against you, the more likely they are to get a hit and there’s a higher probability of the defense making an error behind you. I’m sure there’s a better explanation than mine, but strikeouts do matter.
Super Bowl XLV Champions, the Green Bay Packers!
ERA can be affected by luck and team defense. Statistically, it’s been proven that the combination of pitchers’ strike out rates and walk rates are stronger predictors of future performance than ERA. Strike out rates are also important in projecting whether a minor league pitcher is ready for the major leagues, the thought being that a minor league pitcher should dominate minor league batters with a high strike out rate before they are called up.
by clack on May 29, 2011 3:12 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The version of ERA based only on strike out and walk rate is Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). Lyles’ FIP is 4.07, compared to his ERA of 3.20. Lyles is good at limiting walks; hopefully he can do that in the major leagues.
by clack on May 29, 2011 3:50 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't have a problem with it.
The Astros notoriously leave players in the minors too long. if Lyles is a stud prospect, then lets see what he can do.. We’re the worst team in the NL and 2nd worst team overall(W/L wise).
Now it’s time to move Martinez to (AAA) and possibly get him up here for a taste later this season…
There's an 87% chance this post is sarcasm...
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3 game series vs Dodgers @ Dodger Stadium
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
| Sat 05/26 |
WP: Kenley Jansen (4 - 0)
LP: Wesley Wright (0 - 1) |
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Houston Astros
Sunday, May 27, 2012, 3:10 PM CDT Partly cloudy. Winds blowing out to right field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 75. |
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
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26 | 20 | .565 | 0 | Won 1 |
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St. Louis
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25 | 22 | .531 | 1.5 | Lost 3 |
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Houston
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22 | 24 | .478 | 4 | Lost 1 |
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Pittsburgh
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Milwaukee
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19 | 27 | .413 | 7 | Lost 1 |
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Chicago
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15 | 31 | .326 | 11 | Lost 11 |
(updated 5.27.2012 at 1:03 AM CDT)
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