Second Base
by ntn on May 13, 2011 1:52 AM CDT
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There is no Astros' game to help me procrastinate doing something more productive as I sit in a Starbucks today. It's a fantastic day in Seoul; it's cool, and the sun is shining. The things on my to do list for today: write a letter of recommendation for myself, work on a novel that will probably never get published, write a resume and create an acting portfolio for an igneous rock (long story), and try to avoid getting drunk and playing darts with a Yankees fan. As you can see it's a tough day for me, and naturally whenever there's a something I don't want to do I start thinking of baseball. So no more about me! What the hell are the Astros going to do at second base?
I know Kaz Matsui set the bar pretty high for Astros' second basemen, but I get the feeling folks around Houston aren't too satisfied with the play of Bill Hall. To be honest, I have only caught a hand full of Hall at-bats, and I think he's about 0-9 with 9Ks on 27 pitches. I know he's better than this, but my life is short. I could die any day, and the lord knows I will die a lot faster watching that bat fly around. I feel like he might hit me through my computer screen before he hits a ball. During the off-season I was mostly indifferent about Hall's signing. I saw what the Astros were trying to do and thought it was worth the money they spent, but right about now I'm glad that Keppinger got dinged-up in the winter and couldn't be traded. (Guess who went 2-5 in his rehab game.)
Pretty soon the Astros are going to have Kepp, Hall, Sanchez, and Downs which seems like a pretty crowded second base because I think you're only allowed to field one second baseman per game. What to do? Since Timmy, doing his part to fill my Astros-less day, declared that Sanchez is the most deserving of faith, I can't see him going anywhere at the moment. I don't know if Downs has any options left and can be sent down, but I would rather CJ get sent down before Downs. Other than CJ, Hall is the only other infielder that hasn't been living up to expectations. Does Hall have trade value? I would guess he doesn't have very much, but Ed Wade did use a Jedi mind trick to get the Cardinals to take Pedro Feliz off our hands last season. (One of my favorite trades ever.) I hope Ed calls St Louis and says, "Ya'll are thin up the middle, I got this power bat at second that I'm willing to part with."
What do you Crawfishbox readers think? Do you want to see Kepp starting at second in the near future? Or starting at third? What do you do with Hall? Slide him to third? Cut him? Trade him? Keep him?
Personally I would try to trade him and his negative WAR to a division rival and bring them down to our level, start Kepp at second again, and if CJ isn't showing good signs at the plate when Bourgeois comes back, I'd demote him in hopes of getting his groove back. I know an infield minus CJ and Hall lacks "power potential" but let's face it, it doesn't matter how far they can hit a ball in batting practice if they can't square up major league pitching.
Maybe it's not worth worrying about since this season is pretty much done as far as the playoffs go. All these guys are hopefully just filler until Paredes or Altuve can make a run at the job next spring or summer. But a decision is coming, and I fear I might throw my laptop out the window while watching Hall bat. I know I don't have that reaction to Keppinger, and I'm between jobs, so I can't go wasting money on new computers.
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You do know that Hall probably will hit about 15 HRs against the Astros if you trade him to a division rival. :) The guy has the highest career extra base hit per at bat among Astros’ players. So, he may well go on an extra base tear at some point, and a trade could be an initiating point.
Personally, I would give Hall more time, simply because the sample size is too small now. I don’t have objection to trading him, but you would be selling low right now. I think there is a fair chance that Hall will go on a slugging streak sometime between now and the trade deadline, and he could have good trading value in that case. I would also note that Hall has been one of the better clutch hitters on the team in a small sample size (something I didn’t know until I commented on Timmy’s post about Sanchez).
If you want to sell high in a trade, Sanchez could be a possibility—if there is a GM out there who likes his contact skills and ignores empty batting averages.
I’m not sure what the Astros will do, in terms of moves. I think Downs still has options left, and he could be moved to AAA. I’m not saying that is the best idea, just pointing it out. Assuming Hall isn’t moved, I would expect Keppinger to take playing time away from both CJ and Hall. Sanchez’s playing time will be reduced too. It’s possible that Bogusevic could be sent back to Round Rock, but that would leave the Astros without a bench LHB. (On the other hand, is it in Bogusevic’s best interests to sit on the bench?) As to whether CJ should be sent to AAA for awhile to regain his stroke—-I leave that judgement to the coaches who know him better. I feel like CJ has shown a few positive signs lately, but it’s hard to say if that’s enough to keep him on the ML team.
By the way, the Astros currently target Keppinger’s return for the end of May. That makes it seem like his return will coincide with Bourgeois’ return, adding to the complication.
I think we will need to see how Keppinger works out in AAA before we know if he can start on a daily basis. I notice that the Astros plan to alternate Keppinger at 2d base and DH in his AA games. I assume that the Astros are trying to ease his injured foot into playing in the field. If they continue to alternate him that way in AAA, it could raise a question about his daily use. On the other hand, the Astros will be entering interleague competition about the time that he returns, which would allow him to DH.
Ugh
That knocks Lee out of the DH spot…
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by Timothy De Block on May 13, 2011 9:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I do not necessarily disagree
But DH in the minors is common, and the hardest thing they say, to do in professional sports is hit major league pitching. Don’t recall a similar adage off the top of the noggin regarding fielding.
JDeLoss
by JamesDe_Loss on May 14, 2011 3:21 AM CDT up reply actions
If the plan is to bring back Kepp at the end of May
Then I would use the rest of the month as a round robin between Johnson, Downs, and Hall. Loser either gets sent down or cut.
It really stinks that money may be the deciding factor, instead of performance.
by Neil Leininger on May 13, 2011 10:11 AM CDT reply actions
If your Brad Mills do you really have faith in Bill Hall???????????????
The guy has struck out 40 times out of 111 at bats while posting a .216 batting avg with 10 rbi’s. Really are you fucking kidding me that the sample size is two small???? What do you need to see him strike out 130 time’s in 300 AB’s to say this guy is not helping the team. He has not shown me to much at second defensively. He acts like he does not want to be here and I almost bet you we were the only team to offer him anywhere near 3 million dollar contract.
We could have brought up Hernandez this year to play second and he would be either doing better or the same.
He would have only cost what 700k
Why don’t you tell us how you really feel about him.
Like it or not he is on our team and cutting him now does us no good other than becoming a little bit better right now. However if for some reason Hall catches fire and could net something in a trade then maybe we would be a little better in the future. I hope they continue to give Hall a chance. Not because I think the guy is our best second base option, but he holds the most value if he can start doing what he did in Boston.
by conroestro on May 13, 2011 11:32 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Normally i would agree but this team is going nowhere fast and no matter
what people say we ARE rebuilding. So get rid of the guys that dont produce and bring up the young guys who might struggle but at least the rebuilding is taking place.
But — if Hall heats up, we can flip him at the trade deadline for a prospect or two. A contending team would like a versatile guy, even if he is only a part timer for them.
Exactly. Hall hasn’t wasted all of his value yet. He’s close but not yet. There is still a little hope to be had.
by conroestro on May 13, 2011 12:04 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
At what point do you say enough is enough??
Every game he plays he will at least have 1 strikeout if not 2. If he keeps this pace he will have about 100k’s by the first week of May. His lack of production takes a toll on everyone playing behind him just like Lee. I mean the guy playing in front of you is sucking ass and I am producing. I am not getting a shot because money is an issue. Hall and Carlos Lee are bringing this team down. We win almost every game that they are both out of the line up.
Yeah but in all fairness Feliz did have several more years of good productivity
unlike Hall who had one or two in Milwaukee.
good point
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by Timothy De Block on May 13, 2011 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I mean are you really that much a fan of this guy??
Mills said in one of his interviews that a guy gets a 100 to 150 Ab’s to see what he’s got we are pretty much there and this guy has showed Nada
(1) He was offered more by other teams, notably the Dodgers, so you are incorrect on that statement; (2) Sample size is a statistical concept, not a “sample size” is whatever I want it to be; and statistically the sample size tells us nothing right now; (3) The strike outs are not significant to me, because we knew we would get that; the question is whether the power will come or not.
Keppinger didnt lose his starting position due to injury
He lost it before then. If your talking about Bourgeois losing his starting job because of injury, well he only got the chance to start because of injury.
I agree with Clack on this a reasonable amount of time needs to pass before we give up on Hall this year. You ask how long, my guess is around the deadline. If he’s not hitting still at that point and has no trade value then cut your losses. Until then hope for the best.Besides we don’t know how long it will take Kepp and Bourgeois to get going again when the come back, and outside of the walks Sanchez is slumping right now as well.
by conroestro on May 13, 2011 2:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
On Small Sample Size
Different statistics will stabilize at different rates. As of now, Bill Hall has had 122 plate appearances, which really only gets you stable contact rates and swing%. In another 30 or so PA, his strikeout rate, line drive rate, and pitches/PA rate will have stabilized. As clack points out, you pretty much knew going into 2010 that Hall was going to have a high strikeout rate.
As for his power game, those numbers don’t stabilize until you reach about 300-550 PA (HR rate on the low end of that range, ISO on the high end, OPS and SLG in the middle.
Trade value. That’s all im basing that comment on. Trade value only. If he can raise it great.
Also is Keppinger considered our future at second, Sanchez, probably not. The only one I buy is maybe Matt Downs but for some reason he seems to be behind everyone on the depth chart.
by conroestro on May 13, 2011 3:18 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Would love to see Downs more
I dont understand Mills with Downs. Downs will go 2 for 3 and not play the next day. As far as Kepp I know he is not the future but he is your utility guy that can get hits when you need them. The guy will hit 250 to 300 every year and he only will strike out 30 times in a year. He is more valuable then Bill Hall at this point and Kepp can be our Jeff Blum for years to come.
Most frustrating Part of this middle infield mess
The last two years Ed Wade has jumped on some guys Feliz, Kaz, Hall, instead of starting spring training and seeing what some of these guys can do. If we are truly rebuilding then lets bring up some of these guys that are around 30 and if they can cut it for a year or so give em a chance. Till we are really restocked in the minors with some real talent or if your going to go get a free agent then go get a free agent. Make a splash something this town can drule over.
the problem is finding players who want to play for a bad team. The reason Bill Hall signed with the Astros was because he was being given a starting position, which no other team was willing to do. The Astros had targeted Orlando Hudson ahead of hall, but he decided San Diego was his better option, San Diego competed last year falling one game short of a playoff spot.
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by Timothy De Block on May 13, 2011 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Sorry forgot to put the rbi in there. But running into that double play at home was the momentum changer in the game last night.
The Astros definitely ran themselves out of the big inning last night. What a shame.
by conroestro on May 14, 2011 12:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
it was a bad play. it’s also one of those plays that it would be better to see in person, instead of on television. I would like to have seen when Hall was sent (or decided to go— without seeing it, I don’t know whether Clark was yelling the instructions) in relation to the fielding play and the throw to 1st base. Presumably the Astros didn’t have a run on contact play on. Without seeing it better, I don’t know if the primary blame lies with Clark or Hall. As I recall, the Astros would have had Barmes up with 2 outs if the DP hadn’t occurred.
The play I can place blame for—the decision to send Carlos Lee home. I think this is Clark’s fault. With no outs, I just don’t see how you can send Lee on a liner which wasn’t hit all that deeply to LF. Having said that, the Mets’ catcher did a good job of handling the ball and staying away from the middle of the plate where Lee could knock him over.
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