The Trade Parade begins a Little early for the Astros
by native_astro on Apr 22, 2011 12:00 PM CDT
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As most predicted, it would only be a matter of time before certain Astros players were mentioned in possible trade rumors for teams looking to upgrade. I'll admit, I think that there's a possibility that come the trade deadline the Astros will be heavily engaged in trade talks. They're going to be either buyers or the more obvious choice as sellers. The trade deadline is July 31st and it appears that the trade parade talk has already started for some of the Astros players.
MLBTradeRumors.com did a write up this week looking at which players might be available if the Astros become sellers.They go on to list players such as Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Meyers, Hunter Pence, Brandon Lyon, Michael Bourn, Clint Barmes, Bill Hall, and Jeff Keppinger as potential trade targets. They even go on to say that Carlos Lee could even be released which really at this point is very much a possibility. I was listening to XM Radio today and Brad Mills said that usually they give players 100-150 at-bats (6-7 weeks) before the club is forced to make a decision about playing time.
At what point does Carlos Lee become detrimental to this team? If he's not hitting and we know that he will not take a walk even if there was a McDonalds #2 with cheese on at stake. I have a feeling that the Astros are trying to do everything possible in order to get some sort of trade value out of Lee mixed with eating the majority of the contract. If the Astros are going to keep him then he needs to be moved down in the order or simply benched. I've said this for a while that the Astros need to move Carlos Lee to the 6th hole in the lineup. @AstroBrit did a really good write up about yesterday and I couldn't agree more. Ideally I think that the Astros lineup should look something similar to the lineup below.
- Michael Bourn (CF)
- Angel Sanchez (SS)
- Brett Wallace (3B)
- Hunter Pence (RF)
- Chris Johnson (3B)
- Carlos Lee (LF)
- Bill Hall/Matt Downs (2B)
- Quintero/Towles (C)
- Pitcher
Anyone still think that Michael Young for Carlos Lee is a bad idea? Nolan Ryan and Jon Daniels would laugh at Ed Wade so hard now that it would simply be embarrassing to ask about a Lee for Young type trade. I have a feeling that the Astros are going to have to eat the contract and just move on.
ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that Brett Meyers name is already being connected with teams such as the Yankees.
Now that we've got that off our chest, though, it doesn't mean teams aren't already trying to anticipate players who might be available. One name we've heard connected with clubs like the Yankees is Houston's Brett Myers. But according to FanGraphs, there isn't a right-handed starter in the AL East whose fastball has averaged under 89 mph. And Myers' average velocity is down to 87.7 -- 3 mph under his career norm.
"If he's in the AL East, he's a fifth starter," one NL scout said of Myers. "I don't see him being a [difference-maker]. The only thing he'd have working for him, besides his curveball, is lack of familiarity with him over there."
The Bleacher Report takes a look at potential fits for the Astros if they decide to move Wandy Rodriguez. They list teams such as the Mariners, Mets, Cardinals, Nationals, and the Yankees as potential fits for Wandy.
We're not even 20 games into the season and the buzzards are already swarming? Come on now! Really?
"You know native_astro they do make a point." Shut up you good looking dude! If you weren't so good looking I'd give you a Chuck Norris round house kick to the chest.
I'm probably the biggest advocate for rebuilding and I'm the first in line to start begging for the Astros to just blow this roster up and start over. I'm like that bratty kid who gets a $20 bill from his parents and has already spent the bill before he has even gotten to the store. "If we trade Brett Meyers then I want this prospect or that prospect for Wandy Rodriguez." With that said, I would hardly say that the Astros record of 7-12 is the time that we should go into full blown trade mode.
I'm probably in the minority here, but during our losing streak this past week the one day that gave me the most enjoyment was the day that Telvin Nash and Chris Wallace both hit 3 home-runs apiece for the Lexington Legends. With guys like Jonathan Villar, Jose Altuve, and J.D Martinez off to good starts it gives us a little bit of hope that things could actually get better in the near future. I think as fans of a losing organization, we tend to get really bitter about hearing how bad of a farm system that we have, being last in a majority of stats, and starting the season in last....again. It's nice from time to time to get a little glimmer of hope that things could be getting better in the near future. Guys like J.D Martinez, J.B Shuck, Jordan Lyles, and even Jonathan Villar are close and give us something as fans to be excited about for the long term for this franchise.
So what should Ed Wade do if the team is hovering around the Mendoza line around the trade deadline?
At what point does Ed Wade and Co. start to decide what direction the Astros should go in for 2011 and what players will be trade options for the Astros? Right now the club is starting to jell and look like they could be a competitive squad in the NL Central, but should that outweigh the long term goals for the Astros? Probably not, but I have a feeling that Ed Wade is going to continue to add small pieces such as waiver claims and evaluate what's in the minors, money owed next year, etc in order to make a decision about what this roster could look like.
Take Brandon Wood for example, who was designated for assignment this week by the Angels. Wood would be an ideal fits for the Astros because he's young, has a high upside, and is under control for a couple of years. Wood could fill in at 2B or even SS if the Astros decide to move either Clint Barmes or even Angel Sanchez.
Look, we all knew that this was a possibility going into 2011. It still is probably very likely that the Astros go into trade mode as we approach the trade deadline. Maybe even sooner if the sale of the Astros goes through prior to the trade deadline, but as of right now it's still a little premature to be already selling the Astros off and predicting where guys will end up the day after the trade deadline.
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Comments
The move to sit or release the Pamanian Porker should be
done sooner than later. Either give some of the bench guys more playing time (platoon situation in LF) or flat out release the tub-o-lard and bring Bogey or Shuckers up.
I understand that cutting Lee would bring smiles to lots of people here
But I think that it would be a mistake. Lee’s defense has been demonstrably better this year (his UZR and DRS are good but obviously unreliable given the sample size, still it’s clear he’s given much more effort and judged balls better), and if he can turn it around with the bat, he could be a solid left fielder. The last two years, he’s had BABIP’s of .238 and .235, figures well below his career .285 figure, so I think he’s due for a turnaround. He’s a sunk cost, yes, but I don’t think that Shuck, Martinez, or Bogusevic will perform any better (he’s on track to be a 2.6 WAR player this year even with the rough start offensively).
by Patrick Harrel on Apr 22, 2011 12:29 PM CDT reply actions
If Lee goes two more weeks hitting like he is why even give him the chance? He has no value for the Astros or anyone else just let his ass go. At least bring up one or two of the young guys to see if they can hack it. The cream will rise to the top and if it doesnt it is one year earlier to evaluate the guys at triple A
It would still be nice to see if Shuck or Bogey could be serviceable. Moving one of them up also opens up a spot for Martinez to move up to AAA. Beyond the money, he really doesn’t serve a purpose.
That is the problem the astros have had for years. By the time we bring up our prospects they are either already to old to give long term contracts to and they play to the level of competition. If you are in triple A for 3-6 years it is going to take you longer to adjust Major League pitching if you do at all
Agreed
Michael Young is an interesting idea how many good years does he have left and he would be an improvement at SS. Lee’s defense looks good because he is to slow to get to the ball that is why he has to dive.
That’s correct. The Pirates claimed Brandon Wood. What drives me nuts about the Astros is their lack if desire to create internal competition with their veterans.
We can’t bring in Wood and give him looks at 2B, SS, or even 3B because we have
Hall, Barmes/Sanchez, and CJ.
I wish they would take some risks. They have no problems claiming a reliever but some how come down with brain fart-itus when it’s a position player.
How old is Wood? Because Hall, Barmes/Sanchez, Cj are going to have an impact on our rebuilding process. They are just filler. I like Cj but he is what 28 29 already
Wood is only 26. This team is all filler. My whole point is that if your trying to build a young core of guys then why not take a chance on a high ceiling low risk guy.
by native_astro on Apr 22, 2011 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
No I totally agree. I am still pissed of about the Randy Johnson trade what team trades away Freddy Garcia, and Carlos cant remember his last name without even having a chance to resign Johnson. I mean to at least one year extension you know
We won 98 games that year.
That was for a world series, it didn’t work out but the move was acceptable in my opinion. That’s one of the times where one piece could have put us over the top.
Also the system wasn’t as depleted back then. We made the playoffs again in 1999, had one bad season in 2000 and then reloaded with Oswalt, Wade Miller, Carlos hernandez and Tim Redding in the following years. All of those guys were solid prospects. Of course they all had different levels of success, but it’s not like Garcia was the only kid on the farm. Guillen was a good player for years but I can’t really see how the trade wasn’t worth it.
Feeling good.....kind of.....:-(
I was actually feeling pretty good considering we took 2 out of 3 in New York….optimistic that we could do the same thing in Milwaukee. And then I looked at the standings and realized that we’re behind Pittsburgh…..PITTSBURGH!!!!
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
If you had to be perfect to do what we do, then nobody would be doing it. On the other hand, if everyone could do what we do.....then everyone would be doing it.
Ken Rosenthal making lots of friends, managing to erase both the Astros and the Pirates from the division. What a man.
While I would favor blowing up this team completely
I think McLane would nix that totally in the bud. I think he would want to give the allusion to a potential buyer that this team is only 1/2 years away from getting back to the top of the division.
That IS an illusion!!
Music City Miracles Hall Of Fame, Class of 2010
If you had to be perfect to do what we do, then nobody would be doing it. On the other hand, if everyone could do what we do.....then everyone would be doing it.
by titansfan4ever on Apr 22, 2011 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions
I get your point, but what woul be worse?
A team with a young core and high payroll(80mil range) that finishes in bottom 10
Or
A gutted team with a reduced payroll that has loaded up on fringe MLB players and prospects?
I get your point AB and you’re probably right about Drayton.
by native_astro on Apr 22, 2011 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions
I understand the dilema but if you are going to say you are rebuilding then do it. All of the outfielders that we have in the minors how long are they going to wait on Pence, Bourn Lee. We are 2 to 3 years from being really being able to compete for the division. Dont know what I think of Wallace yet either I would unload him bring up Clemens and see if you sell him off as a DH to someone.
As I’ve mentioned previously, I don’t think that the team can make a decision on releasing Lee until a new owner signs off on it. It’s about $38 million to be eaten, and I think that decision is above the GM’s pay grade.
Even if Lee’s overall batting stats continue to deteriorate, I do believe he has value as a platoon player against LHPs for the Astros. And, who knows, maybe he creates enough value as a platoon player to be tradeable.
Truthfully, I’m skeptical that the Astros have enough high value tradeable pieces to get premium prospects in return. So, I’m not overly excited. Maybe I can get excited if we get close to the trade deadline and teams start to make offers.
by clack on Apr 22, 2011 2:05 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I agree with Clack. The Astros should release Inglett and bring up either Bogusevic or Shuck to platoon with Lee. This would be the best value for the team and could also raise Lee’s value.
by conroestro on Apr 22, 2011 2:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
He also has a no trade clause, doesn’t he? It seems that he’s been picky about where he would go. Didn’t he say he would veto any trade to the AL?(I may have imagined that) How much trade value could he actually have as a platoon player?
Reportedly, he has named AL teams as “no trade teams” in his limited no trade clause. Jason Giambi and Jim Thome are platoon players in their final years. They brought some value. Lee would play 1st base a lot better than Giambi, IMO. (Giambi is platooning with Helton at 1st base, I think.) If Lee were traded, under any circumstance the Astros would have to pick up a substantial part of his contract. But there is a difference between zero value (which means a trade is impossible) and some value (which means a trade might be possible if the parties agree on shares of the remaining contract cost).
by clack on Apr 22, 2011 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Astros Plug
I chuckle every time I hear the plug for the Astros. Come out and see slugger Carlos Lee and the Astros battle the milwaukee Brewers. LOL
I don’t think that Lee’s playing time is up to Mills. Well sort of. I think that Wade/Smith have told Mills to play Lee as much as possible in order to build trade value. Has he gotten a day off yet? When JMike plays, Lee goes to 1st and Wallace sits.
I’ll be sad to see Carlos Lee go. He’s 99% of my jokes.
I would have rather seen that contract go to Pence instead of Wandy. Wandy is more of a 4th or 5th rotation guy instead of a number 2. We are paying 8mil a year for him is that right?
If you put up Wandy and Cliff Lee’s numbers over the past two season side-by-side it’s hard to differentiate between the two. Why the Wandy hate?
You can look at the numbers side by side and over the whole season they might look about the same but Wandy is inconsistant for one. Doesnt impress me never has he had a great season two years ago. Wandy was anything like Cliff Lee dont you think everyone would have been beating down the door to get him last year? I dont say oh man we got Wandy on the mound tonight we got this one. Do you?????
Except Wandy wasn’t a free agent last season and if you are referring to the trade deadline, there were multiple teams interested despite his rough first half. He was probably the best pitcher in the majors the second half of last season.
Then the Astros are stupid for not trading him for some prospects and then signing him to a 3 year contract
Except he WAS NOT A FREE AGENT. They signed him to a three year deal and avoided arbitration. Also, they would not have gotten much a great return for him last year since he started so terribly out of the gates. What is your real problem with Wandy because it isn’t his performance.
$8 million this year, increasing to $11 million in the 3d year.
by clack on Apr 22, 2011 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Currently, I think the total value of Wandy’s contract is a pretty good measure of his value to the Astros. Given his home/road splits, it seems likely that other teams would not be able to get the same kind of results out of him that Houston gets, and would place a lower value on him than the Astros do. As it stands, I don’t think there is currently any overlap between what a team would be willing to give up and what the Astros would take.
One also has to consider that the 2014 club option becomes a player option if Wandy is traded. It’s an $10.5M difference once you consider the buyout, which makes the gap larger between the Astros and any potential trade partners.
good points, Andy. I think that is a good summary of the situation.
by clack on Apr 22, 2011 5:11 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Whether Wandy’s contract is an impediment to a potential trade will depend on the team. I think his contract will rule out some teams. But if a team isn’t too constrained in its budget and likes Wandy, it shouldn’t be a problem. Keep in mind that Wandy’s contract is back loaded, which makes Drayton McLane happy in this, his last year of ownership. However, that may not be viewed as a positive point by potential trading partners.
by clack on Apr 22, 2011 5:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ironically
He has consistently improved ever year since his debut, and it appears he’s settled into a consistent trend of posting an ERA in the mid 3’s the past three years. Sure he has significant splits but looking at just those statistics is missing the point.
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by Timothy De Block on Apr 22, 2011 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Again I like I commented at the top
When Wandy takes the mound do you have confidence in him. He is either on or off there is no in between for him.
Yes, to have a sub 4 ERA there are going to be more good starts than there are bad. Here’s a different angle, last year out of 32 starts Wandy had 21 quality starts, he would of had 23 but the defense gave up three unearned runs in two of his starts. Roy Oswalt by comparison had 24 quality starts.
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by Timothy De Block on Apr 22, 2011 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions
Of course I have confidence in him when he takes the mound. He’s proven the last two seasons that he is one of the better starters in the NL. The only arguments you have against him is that you don’t have confidence in him and you think he is inconsistent. Newsflash : no one cares how you feel. Wandy’s numbers speak for themselves.
We will see sooner than later what Wandy is worth. Wherever he goes he will be a 4th or 5th starter not a number two a guarantee that so you build your rotation around him.
guarantee usually comes with stipulations
like a naked lap around MMP park.
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by Timothy De Block on Apr 22, 2011 8:14 PM CDT up reply actions
The Rockies traded a 27 year old double a reliever for Brad Emaus. Now they can just send him to AAA to work things out. I’m upset about this.
Yeah good organizations take chances. Astros simply are content with just getting by.
by native_astro on Apr 22, 2011 8:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Alright gentlemen, youre serious about your prospects?
Take a look at our AAA outfielders. Any of them major league starter quality? Simply put, No. Bogey and Locke both have some potential but its passing them by. Drop the AAA guys promote the AA guys and get them looking at higher quality pitching. Release the guys that are failing to reach their potential year after year and bring up the guys that are actually producing.
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 23, 2011 3:31 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Release the guys that are failing to reach their potential year after year and bring up the guys that are actually producing.
Uh, Bogusevic is producing. .271, .419, .417, .827. He may not have a high ceiling but he hasn’t washed out. Other than J.D. Martinez, Bogusevic’s OPS is higher than the AA outfielders. I don’t have a problem with moving Martinez up to AAA soon, but he can’t replace a center fielder.
by clack on Apr 23, 2011 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Oh come on guys!
If a guy is batting .270 against minor league pitching, do you think he’s going to fair as well against major league pitching? Usually players find Major League pitching more difficult. He’s a AAAA player, let’s move on!
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 23, 2011 12:47 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
But if the guys in AA can’t reach his OPS, what are the chances they will do so in AAA?
by clack on Apr 23, 2011 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
The guys in AA have a higher ceiling, better chance of being a legit Major Leaguer. Why keep the guys who have a ceiling of a back up OFer and block the guys with true potential? I’m not trying to sound cold and say Bogey has no potential but I am saying he’s not special. Gaston and Martinez have a descent chance to be special players. I think Shuck will be a perfect 4th OFer as a high average good defense guy. But Locke, Bogey, and even DeLome are dime-a-dozen players, not much chance that they turn into great prospects.
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 23, 2011 3:29 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Bogey isn’t a dime a dozen. Bogey doesn’t have Shucks on-base skills, but just about every aspect of his game is better than Shucks. Shuck plays harder and has more speed, but Bogey has the instints to better utilize his skills to be more productive on the basepaths and defense.
Bogey is a AAAA player IMO and I’m sticking with that. Not to mention his age is starting to get up there for a prospect.
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 23, 2011 4:31 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Not to beat a dead horse
But our AAA team is showing 4 OFers.
Locke (28, career .302 avg since 05, .276 AAA avg)
Bogey (27, .282 avg since 05, .273 AAA avg) DeLome (25, .253 avg since 07, .225 AAA avg) and Shuck (23, .313 avg since 08, .306 AAA avg)
Shuck’s AAA #s…PA-211 BB-24 SO-21 Avg-.306
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 23, 2011 5:44 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Batting average is probably the least useful statistic in evaluating hitters.
by clack on Apr 23, 2011 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly. Shuck lives a lot by getting bloopers over sub-par defensive players heads and groundball through holes. Both of those will drop more significantly than Bogey’s. Bogey gets more line-drives which have a higher BABIP. Yes, Bogey will have a decrease in avg. at the major league level but his drop won’t be as significant. Plus, his pop, baserunning skills, and defense translate much better. I’m a Shuck fan and believer. But, Shuck has a lot more work to do.
and how about his bb/so #'s?
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 24, 2011 2:58 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Again, small sample size for the season, but Bogusevic’s BB % is good (12.3%) and his K rate is middling (18.6%). His ISO is .135.
In comparing Shuck and Bogusevic, they both have good BB%, but the trade off is that Bogusevic has a higher K rate and a better ISO. Shuck’s ISO is .035, which is extremely low (and not unlike his norm which is below .100), and in and of itself probably precludes him from a ceiling higher than No. 4 outfielder.
by clack on Apr 24, 2011 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ive said before, I think he would make a Perfect 4th Outfielder
But Shuck is very young and should grow into a better player, as Bogey is nearing his peak and may start to decline soon. Shuck has had great career BB/K rates. Its not a small sample size its 3 years
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 24, 2011 5:14 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I compare him to Keppinger with better defense
Both high average low power players with good plate discipline. Both players are probably best suited in a bench/utility role. Shuck is going to be much better on defense and on the bases (not necessarily in steals). Can you honestly tell me that you don’t like Keppinger?
by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 24, 2011 5:19 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Maybe the AA outfielders have a higher ceiling (not really sure, though), but they will never have a chance at achieving their ceiling if they can’t conquer AA—and they haven’t shown they are good AA players yet.
by clack on Apr 23, 2011 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Not to mention that it’s a very small sample size. Bogusevic was hitting over .300 last week.
by clack on Apr 23, 2011 1:09 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
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Current Series
Astros lead the series 1-0
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
|
Houston Astros
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. |
||
| Sun 05/27 | 3:10 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:14 PM CDT)
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