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Series Preview: Houston Astros at Milwaukee Brewers

Kyle Lobner of Brew Crew Ball was kind enough to answer some questions from me on the upcoming series against Milwaukee. Ol' Pete, feel free to answer them as well in the comments.

1) The Brewers were my personal pick to take the NL Central this season. After the trades for Shawn Marcum and Zack Greinke, many people called this approach the "stars and scrubs" approach. What do you think this team's ceiling is and what are the chances that it reaches that potential?

KL: Because of the stars you mentioned and a handful of others, this Brewer team's ceiling is very high. With no injuries and minimal bad luck, we're probably talking about a team that could win 90+ games. But if things start to go wrong, it's also easy to envision things snowballing. The Brewers have done a nice job minimizing the damage while Zack Greinke and Corey Hart have been out this April, but I don't think anyone really wants to think about what could happen if they're forced to rely on the likes of Marco Estrada and Mark Kotsay all season.

Depth could be this team's issue all season: Guys like Kotsay, Erick Almonte and Wil Nieves are still on the roster, and might be among the worst players in baseball. The Brewers will be in trouble if they end up playing key roles.

Star-divide

2) That sweep by the Reds to open the season had to hurt, but it seems like the Brewers have been playing much more consistently lately. What's been the key to the team's success recently?

KL: I can't explain it, but the Reds have owned the Brewers in recent years. They've won 18 of the last 21 meetings between the two teams, including all three this season. The Cincinnati series was a perfect example of everything that can go wrong for this Brewer team: They had a game where John Axford couldn't convert a save, a game where the defense and some poor pitching led to an implosion, and a game where they were given an opportunity to come back but couldn't put together enough offense.

The Brewer lineup has been constructed to rely heavily on the top of the order. On most days, they'll have at least a couple of near-automatic outs (Carlos Gomez, Yuniesky Betancourt, Mark Kotsay et al) in there, so if the likes of Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun aren't having a good day, there's not a lot of hope for this offense. Even when the big bats are connecting, the bottom of the order is producing enough outs to keep the team from putting up any really big games.

3) What's going on with Corey Hart? How has his absence affected the team?

KL: Hart's been out since the early days of spring training with an oblique strain, and he's still not quite ready to come back. He did start a rehab assignment in AAA this week, but he likely needs 10 days to two weeks to make up for the fact that he never really faced live pitching this spring.

Hart isn't the Brewers' best hitter, but his absence has left a gaping hole in the lineup. The Brewers have had a very hard time finding capable players to take his place either offensively or defensively, and the stability that will come with having him back will definitely be welcome.

4) With Carlos Gomez struggling after he returns to the starting lineup, and with Nyjer Morgan going crazy there when he was the starter, has there been any sort of movement for Morgan to take a bigger role? Or is Gomez' defense too good to keep on the bench?

KL: You hit the nail on the head with Gomez: His offense has been woeful at times this season, but his defense is good enough to give him some value. There's definitely a large portion of Brewer fans that think Nyjer Morgan should take over most of his playing time, but Morgan has been out for almost a week now with a deep thigh bruise so it hasn't become an issue.

Once Corey Hart and Morgan are both healthy, I think we'll see a really interesting debate emerge: There won't be much playing time to be had in left or right field, so the Brewers will have to decide how to split playing time in center between Gomez and Morgan.

5) What has the Yuniesky Betancourt Experience been like this season? Is his bad reputation around the stat community deserved?

KL: Betancourt is what he is, and a fair amount of his reputation is earned. His range is very limited defensively, and his arm is strong but wild. At the plate, his discipline is near zero...but he does seem to have the capacity to have a good at bat at times in a key situation.

The Brewers have almost nothing in terms of depth at the position in the organization, so Betancourt will be the man at short unless the front office makes a move to acquire his replacement.

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They’ve shifted a lot for years, but like you say, these are more extreme. I’ll bet it gets several “woah” or the like in gamethreads. They’ve gotten bit by them a couple times. It worked great in the Braves series – a bunch of liners or hard grounders that went right at defenders.

by ol Pete on Apr 22, 2011 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions  

1) If Marcum, Greinke, Gallardo, Fielder and Braun are the stars, Wolf, Weeks, Hart and Lucroy aren’t scrubs. Right there you have a lot of roster. Kotsay and Nieves are self-inflicted. Kotsay is there because Melvin loves old guys or maybe he always admired the guy so this is his chance to have him on his team. There is a better catcher IMO that they cached in the minors and a better version of Nieves there as well. Almonte will probably be a dud but I don’t think its the worst thing to take a chance on him.

2) The Reds have that mojo against the Brewers, but just like the Brewers are nowhere near as superior to the Pirates as the record indicates, ditto for them. It just seems that teams dominate others for streaks. Thank goodness for the Pirates though.

3) He’s rehabbing although I don’t think he’s got a hit yet. He is one of the players who go from being widely disliked and cited as a weakness on the team to the reverse.

4) Gogo has really grown on me. Thirteen hits in 66 ABs so far is pretty bad, but his approach is better. He seems like he’s been coached well, but sinks back into his hacking ways. Its like that breaking ball low and away has gravitational pull. But he is great defensively. I almost never see AL games, but I would put him solidly above every CF in the NL with Bourn as the only exception and I’ll still give CG the edge. In the Phillies series, he took away 3-4-5 XBHs and a single or two. He might have been the most important player in that series outside of Braun, Wolf and Marcum.

5) I absolutely loved Escobar. I hate that he was traded. But Yuni B hasn’t been anywhere near how he’s portrayed. He’s made plays deep in the hole all the way over to behind 2nd. He seems like he is lazy with his technique or throws sometimes and that is his achilles heel. As a hitter, he’s been hitting solid balls ever since the Cincy series. He could easily be hitting .300. He’s got that sort of curse that some players have that they can make contact with junk pitches that they put a lot of balls in play. FWIW, he was key in a win against the Cubs by working a walk by coming back from 0-2 and fouling off some tough sliders at the ankles. Casey followed with a homer. I don’t mind him.

by ol Pete on Apr 22, 2011 6:01 PM CDT reply actions  

Some of his reputation comes from Joe Posnanski

Who was pretty hard on the guy in several posts, or rather the Royals for acquiring and continuing to play the guy. He’s going to have his moments, just like any other ball player.

Follow my ramblings on Twitter .

by Timothy De Block on Apr 22, 2011 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

"and I'll still give CG the edge"?!!

Really? I’m with you on just about every other point. You can say what you want about the Stros but to say they don’t have the best defensive CFer in baseball is pure blasphemy! Its the one thing we truely have and I’ll stick by it until he is truely gone.

We got Myers and Wandy to back us for the series win, I’m not worried…

by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 23, 2011 12:34 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

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Fri 05/25 WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
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NL Central Standings

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Cincinnati 25 20 .555 0 Lost 1
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Houston 22 23 .488 3 Won 4
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Milwaukee 19 26 .422 6 Won 2
Chicago 15 30 .333 10 Lost 10

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