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Scouting the RedHawks: The Hitters

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As the majority of you all know, I attended three of the Astros Triple-A affiliate, Oklahoma City RedHawks, games in Nashville.  Being that actual reports of minor leaguers are hard to come by if the player is not a Top 100-150 prospect, and even then it can be difficult at times, many of you want to see an opinion of any player you can get your hands on.  Well, thats why I'm glad to live in a city that has a minor league team that plays some our future Astros.

I'm going to break this down into two sections (as I'm sure you could have already figured that out); The Hitters and The Pitchers.  I'm going to prelude this in saying that I am by no means a "scout."  I've watched a lot of video of prospects and have spent a good time trying to figure out how to evaluate both hitters and pitchers, albeit I feel a little more comfortable evaluating pitchers.  That still doesn't put my opinion over any of yours.  These comments are simply my opinion based on the limited information I have available. 


Now, on to my evaluations!

Star-divide

Koby Clemens 1B

The younger Clemens has been climbing up almost any Astros fan's prospect board over the past several years for one reason, and one reason only...he can hit!  That hasn't changed in AAA.  He is still hitting at this level because he has a good eye.  He can recognize pitches and can put a solid swing on a ball while puting a charge in it.  He has a good head on his shoulders and he knows what he's doing at the plate.  Then why are his strikeout numbers so high?  His lofty swing has holes.  At this point, it's unlikely any hitting coach will suddenly figure out how to minimize those holes substantially.  I can see him reducing his k% slightly, but he is showing what he is already, a high strikeout power hitter capable of puting up solid OBP numbers. 

Physically, Koby is smaller than I expected.  He is not physically imposing by any means, he's stocky but he is short for his position.  Thats nothing new to any of you as this has been documented before but I personally don't care about his size and don't see it as an issue.  What I do see as an issue is his defense.  I wouldn't call him a defensive standout, his range is limited and isn't exactly sound in his mechanics.  He had trouble with a grounder hit right at him which cost a baserunner.  He was also unable to reach a grounder down the line which wasn't exactly sharply hit either.  Third base is not an option in my opinion, but I'd like to see what he could do in left field.

Jose Vallejo 2B

I wasn't able to really gather a sound opinion on him at the plate.  He looks to still be getting back into the groove of hitting, since he spent all but maybe a month on the DL last season.  Physically, he's athletic and can make plays in the field.  He's sound defefensively and has a good arm.  I didn't see enough to say he's a plus defender but I will say he's at least average. 

Tommy Manzella SS

I'm not going to go deep because you've all seen him and know what he's capable of.  But, I will say he looks better at the plate and in the field than he did last year.  He's controlling at-bats and he's making solid contact.  I'll leave the opinions to all of you.

Ozzie Navarro IF

Utility player on a bad team.  He may be able to contribute during a hot streak, but I'd rather have Matt Downs any day.

Brian Dopirak 1B

I saw even less of him than anyone else, and unfortunately didn't get to see much anything to make an evaluation.  But, he didn't stand out.

Anderson Hernandez 2B

He could be servicable at the major league level in a utility role.  You've all seen him and already have your own opinions.

Carlos Corporan C

He's definitely more athletic than most catchers and he showed a little power and ability at the plate.  He provides quality depth in AAA.  I wouldn't be afraid to call him up in a pinch.

Robinson Cancel C

Didn't get much playing time so no real impression besides he's a big boy!

Brian Bogusevic OF

Bogey is a cool guy.  He talked to Astros County and I a little during the game.  He likes the nickname Bogey so feel free to call him that.  Bogey plays with confidence both in the field and at the plate.  He seems to be a popular guy in the clubhouse but I wouldn't place him as a team leader in the majors just because I don't think you could put a team on his shoulders at that level.  At AAA, yes, but not in the majors.  I think he needs to lean a little about when to be aggressive and when to hold back a little bit better.  He took some aggressive hacks at the plate that he probably should have just tried to put the bat on the ball.  He was also tagged out at home on an aggressive advance from second and lost that battle but a good piece.

He has good size and is very light on his feet which is what allows him to be as quick as he is on the basepaths and the field.  As expected, his arm is strong and accurate as well.  Might be able to learn to take some slightly better routes, but I'd feel comfortable with him in right field.

As mentioned before, he's confident at the plate and has a nice swing that is slightly geered more towards line drives than homeruns.  He's cabable of hitting the longball when he's aggressive but needs to pick those spots better.

JB Shuck OF

My opinions of Shuckers are well documented and things haven't changed.  He plays hard, he hits the ball consistently and doesn't strikeout much.  I really like the guy and would love to see him in Houston.  Astros County even asked me who I feel will have a better major league career between Shuck and Bogey, and my response was it depends on Shucks ability to play center.  His routes and instincts are still iffy in the field.  Although, he did make a throw from the warning track that impressed me.  His arm strength is a little better than I remember.  Still not right field strong, but center field strong.  Definitely better suited for left still at this point but with potential to be a center fielder because of athletecism and speed.

On the basepaths, decisions are iffy.  He was caught stealing once and picked off once as well.  He just doesn't have the reaction time and instincts to be a real threat stealing bases.  He has to steal a base in five attempts this season.

Drew Locke OF

Power potential, but at this point this point, potential has to be production which means potential is falling.  He just isn't anything impressive anymore.  He's solid but not impressive.

Collin DeLome OF

Surprisingly thin and shorter than I remember.  Not a typical power hitter size.  He's capable of playing center in a very tight pinch but range is limited there.  Didn't really get a read on his arm though.  He's in a similar situation as Locke.

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Good write up...

I think of Shuck as an OF version of Keppinger with a little higher ceiling, I like that…

by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 18, 2011 2:14 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Shucks baserunning scares me. As a speed guy that’s a big part of his game. I guess that makes you appreciate a guy like Michael Bourn that much more who has both the speed and the instincts on defense and the bases.

If only Bogusevic had more power potential, and if only Koby had more defensive potential then we would have two good players on our hands.

by conroestro on Apr 18, 2011 5:02 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Agreed

I’m ok with Bogeys defense, I would even be excited about his arm in the outfield but our system pretty much since 04-05 has lacked good power hitters. We really can’t afford to have a weak hitting outfielder.

Shuck can hopefully do what Angel Sanchez has been able to do so far this season but with more power potential, especially more towards his prime years. Sanchez has done great as a #2 hitter just advancing Mikey and keeping the inning going. Only problem with Shuck is he probably would have to be a LFer and we would need our power bat to come from somewhere else, which to Astros fans is a completely foreign idea.

by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 18, 2011 5:41 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Bogey

What I really like about Bogey was he didn’t let the Sounds 1B Gamel get to him. Gamel is a horrible dirty player. He says some really nasty things to players on the opposing team. Bogey turned around when he was on first and dropped the F bomb on him. I was sitting about 20 ft from it. I’ve always liked his game and now I appreciate him even more.

by William Russell on Apr 18, 2011 7:02 PM CDT reply actions  

I was excited when I first started going to the Sounds games last year because of Matt Gamel. I was pretty disappointed and still am. I’m not a fan. Looks like a AAAA guy at best.

by Subber10 on Apr 18, 2011 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Good read. I think Shuck can be a useful player in the future. Looking forward to the pitchers review.

by jmike on Apr 18, 2011 9:32 PM CDT reply actions  

I’m hopefully going to have time to write it tomorrow and post it on wednesday.

by Subber10 on Apr 18, 2011 10:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Im curious about Folty

I wonder if he will be as dominant as Lyles has been, and I wonder if he’s projected higher or lower than Lyles…draft is coming and I’m thinking a lot about prospects

by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 18, 2011 9:53 PM CDT via mobile reply actions  

Higher ceiling, but he’s a little more raw than Lyles was at the same point in their careers. Lyles control and changeup were ahead of Folty’s at this point. Although, Folty has a much better fastball and a potential better breaking ball. His changeup may not get to Lyles change, but few will. Thats not a knock on Folty’s change, because he does have a good one, it’s just Lyles has a great one.

by Subber10 on Apr 18, 2011 9:57 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cool

I was a little discouraged by Folty’s early #s last year. I hope he can move through the system pretty quickly but I know Lyles was a special case and I’m not expecting any more teenagers in AA any time soon…

Keep the optimism flowing!

by Its Gonna Happen on Apr 18, 2011 10:27 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Lyles outing tonight

Lyles had another not great, but not horrible outing tonight. Looks like his adjustment period at the triple-A level is going to be greater than any other level he has been at so far. I hope his strikeout numbers start coming back up.

by conroestro on Apr 18, 2011 10:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

Bogey

Still holding onto hope he can be an everyday player, even though I know it’s not realistic. I love his approach to the game. It’s such a shame that he didn’t get started in his career as a hitter until so late. I think he’d be a top 100 prospect if he was producing like this as a player three years younger. Unfortunately, this is his age 27 season, and he’s running out of time to be more than an AAAA player.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Apr 19, 2011 2:35 AM CDT reply actions  

Koby- if he keeps this up, he’ll raise his ceiling to an everyday 1B. The power is no longer in question, it’s just a matter of whether or not his OBP skill stays at or near this level. I have a bad feeling that pitchers will figure him out and/or his luck will diminish and he’ll come back to the profile of a power bat off the bench who can provide pop and below average defense at multiple positions.

Vallejo is not getting enough playing time for my tastes. Hard to know what we have in him.

At this stage in Houston’s organizational situation, I have no interest in AAAA players, and neither should they. manzella, navarro, hernandez, Cancel, Locke, etc. Ugg.

I’m a corporan fan.

I think DeLome has gotten a raw deal; he hasn’t been given everyday play in 2 years and when he has played he has done well. I think he has more upside than any OF on the AAA roster. See my thoughts on Bogey on theother thread.

by Snake Diggity on Apr 19, 2011 11:01 AM CDT reply actions  

I agree on Vallejo, I would like to see more playing time for him, but its possible he’s being eased back into playing everyday. I’m not sure on Clemens. I don’t know if I see an everyday player at first.

I agree that Cancel, Locke, Navarro, and Hernandez are AAAA guys but not Manzella. I don’t think he was given his full opportunity at the major league level. And he’s playing like he deserves another shot right now.

I disagree with DeLome. He’s not anything exciting. I don’t see the upside in him. He’s not a real CFer. I don’t see the arm for right, but I haven’t seen enough to really say that. He doesn’t have the plate discipline to to be a major league hitter. I no longer see the power potential with DeLome. I think he’s maxed out as a 15-20 home run guy. And that kind of production is not worth his strikeout rate which destroys his OBP.

by Subber10 on Apr 19, 2011 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions  

I like the BA and OBP, although it leans heavily on his BA. He looks like a decent risk for a reserve OFer.

by Subber10 on Apr 19, 2011 11:36 AM CDT up reply actions  

Looking at the rosters, it looks like they need upgrades at 3B in both AAA and AA, as Navarro/Hernandez are AAAA guys and Flores is a non-prospect. I’d like to see Erik Castro promoted to AA and leave Meyer in Lancaster so they both get everyday play.

It’s a shame Brandon Wikoff hasn’t performed better.

by Snake Diggity on Apr 19, 2011 1:22 PM CDT reply actions  

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