The Astros Breakout Candidate

by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2011 9:04 AM CST in Editorials

What if I told you the Astros have a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate not named Jordan Lyles? No, I don't mean the Astros team Rookie of the Year award, I mean a bonafide Major League candidate.

It's true. A few things would have to break his way, but that's part of what baseball is about.

In his first eight games as an everyday player, he hit .217/.357/.435 at High A, but that wasn't in Lancaster. It was in Salem, Virginia. He was then promoted to Corpus Christi where he posted a .371/.447/.556 line in 42 games. The following season, in 138 games, he put up a .271/.342/.365 line at Triple-A.

If you haven't figured it out by now, I'm talking about Brian Bogusevic, the converted pitching prospect.

After making the switch away from the mound and after some early success at the plate, many top 10 lists included Bogusevic's name right under Jason Castro as the second best prospect in the farm system. Since then, he's fallen out of the Top 5 and, for some, out of the Top 10. While some of that could be attributed to his performance in both Double- and Triple-A, it's possible that there's just more talent in the farm system now. A 27-year old outfielder who's only posted a .772 OPS in 1,331 minor league plate appearances isn't a very sexy pick as a top prospect.

There is hope though for Mr. Bogusevic. A positive trend he has.

Last year at Round Rock, he posted a line of .277/.364/.414. Yes, I know, "meh," but those number represent a six point increase in batting average, a 22 point increase in on-base percentage (OBP) and a 49 point increase in his slugging percentage (SLG) from his 2009 numbers. He doubled his home run production, going from six in 2009 to 13 in 2010. That's pretty impressive for a guy who only two and half years ago was trying to strike batters out.

He also appears to be a heads-up runner on the bases, swiping 54 bags in 59 attempts in the minors. That's a 91 percent success rate, people. To put it into perspective, Michael Bourn had a 83 percent success rate in his time in the minors. He doesn't have the speed to steal 50-plus bases like Bourn, but 20-30 isn't out of the question.

To steal bases, a player needs to get on base, and Bogusevic does a decent enough job of it. His 11.7 percent BB rate and a 21.5 percent K rate at Triple-A in 2010 isn't impressive, but it is comparable to what Bourn posted in the minors. It may send some fans into a fit, but it's a godsend for a team starving for players who can get on base regularly.

His defense in the outfield also appears to be solid, for a guy who was at one time ducking infield pop ups. He's probably not going to be able to handle Minute Maid Park's vast center field, but he could be sufficient in right field, and would provide positive value in left. That'd be a huge boost to a defensive team that was considered below average last season.

For Bogusevic to bust it out, there are pieces that will need to fall into place. Carlos Lee will have to move to first, which means Brett Wallace tanked this spring and would be starting the year in Oklahoma City. Even then, Mills may choose to start Jason Michaels over Bogusevic, at least to start the season. Obviously, he has to make the 25-man roster, and with a good spring he could position himself for a starting gig. So far, those results have only been okay.

He is not done developing, and heading into what many consider the prime years of a player he has an opportunity to really surprise some people.

After all, we said the same thing about Chris Johnson a year ago.

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I am skeptical. I think a realistic optimistic case for him is that he becomes valuable back up outfielder. Beside the obstacles mentioned in the article, I doubt that Bogusevic has enough power to win the rookie of the year. Admittedly, that depends on the competition (it’s too early to gauge), but the ROY awards seemed to favor power hitters in recent years. I suppose Chris Coughlan’s ROY award in 2009 (.320, .390, .460) provides a benchmark ( for a non-power hitting outfielder), and perhaps that is achievable by Bogusevic in an optimistic case.

My doubts about Bogusevic as a starting corner outfielder center around his extreme groundball rate, which he exhibited in his minor league career (over 60%) and his brief ML experience (69%). It’s difficult to hit a lot of extra base hits with a groundball rate over 60%, and GB/Fly rates don’t change much over a player’s career.

At this point, I think Bogusevic needs to concentrate on making the team. As a LHB, I think he has a good chance of making the team.

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 9:59 AM CST reply actions

where’d you find the data on his minor league groundball %?

by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2011 10:26 AM CST up reply actions

firstinning.com

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 10:30 AM CST up reply actions

Some of there numbers are off when compared to both FanGraphs. Particularly K%, and OPS are two I compared. There not off by much but they are off.

Still he probably does have a high GB%, which is certainly a detractor.

by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2011 11:02 AM CST up reply actions

K% for Fangraphs and First Inning are different because one uses ABs and the other uses PA’s for the denominator. (I can’t recall which does which.) Fangraphs sometimes has slightly different OPS numbers than First Inning.com and the old site, minorleaguesplits.com. Sometimes Fangraphs’ minor league numbers vary slightly from baseball-reference.com. I’m not sure why, but I assume they use different data sources for minor league stats.

Bogusevic’s groundball ratio was identified a couple of years ago by Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America scouting reports as a possible problem area.

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 1:07 PM CST up reply actions

I briefly looked at GB% for last year, and interestingly enough Derek Jeter has a career 57% GB%. So a high GB% doesn’t mean he can’t have success.

by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2011 2:59 PM CST up reply actions

I agree that some players are successful at high GB rates, and Jeter is the best example. But it is relatively rare for a power hitting player to post groundball rates in the 60% range—it’s usually the Bourn type player who succeeds at that kind of rate. Pence has a fairly high groundball rate, but not in the Bogusevic range. Over the last three years, Jeter has the highest average groundball rate (59%). The remaining league leaders in groundball rates over that period (excluding players who only played one year):

E. Andrus 58%
Inchiro 57%
Pierre 55%
Span 54%
Theriot 53%
Pence 52%
O. Hudson 51%
F. Lopez 50%

Bourn didn’t show up on that list because it starts in 2007. So, I change the list to 2008-2010, and Bourn and Skip Schumaker come out in the top 3 (behind Jeter) at 57% and 59%. I thought about mentioning Schumaker earlier as a similar player to Bogusevic. Both are versatile, fast players who hit the ball on the ground a lot.

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 7:07 PM CST up reply actions

I don’t know what you would consider a power hitter, but I see Bogusevic hitting 20-25 with possible a high of 30. To me that doesn’t constitute a power hitter. I do believe he has deceptive speed, but that’s soley based on his stolen base percentage. Smarts will only get you so far and it seems like he could as I posted above steal 20-30 bags.

by Timothy De Block on Mar 9, 2011 10:15 PM CST up reply actions

yes, I would consider 20-25 HRs as a power hitter. but on the list of top 10 groundball hitters, I showed above, only Pence hit over 20 HRs. Jeter hasn’t hit more than 20 HRs since 2004, and his GB rate dropped to 48% in that season.

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 11:07 PM CST up reply actions

It would shock me if he gets any ROY mention. Not only are the odds stacked highly against him gettign every day MLB play, his track record points to him having 4th OF skills with some upside. I’d honestly rather have Shuck (less upside, better OBP, slightly better defense) as the 5th OF and have Bogey back in AAA for one more year of everyday play to see if he can elevate his ceiling to where teams view him as a future everyday player.

by Snake Diggity on Mar 9, 2011 12:24 PM CST reply actions

bogusevic

better to have him play full time at AAA… clee is not answer at 1b.. even if wallace doesnt do well. it looks like wallace is doing well on all fronts..offense and defense.. i would keep bourgeois for his defense and speed and versatility… except for big salary, clee is a ++++ , i expect 25 hr 100 rbi .290 to .310 ba…not bad… astro pitching is looking good..it is deep deep….we have about 10 pitchers who could start in major leagues…mike h

by Mike HJALM on Mar 9, 2011 1:07 PM CST reply actions

infield

hall and barmes are looking good.. johnson also.. and angel vasquez is doing well…what about catching… i would really consider they guy who has been in AAA for yrs….switch hitter… question is, does he handle pitching staff well… mh

by Mike HJALM on Mar 9, 2011 1:09 PM CST reply actions

Bogusevic is the only lefthander available as an outfield reserve. That, and his age, gives him an advantage in making the team. At age 27, Bogusevic really doesn’t have much time before he falls into the AAAA category if he returns to the minors.

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 1:10 PM CST reply actions

Shuck is lefthanded, right?

by Snake Diggity on Mar 9, 2011 1:45 PM CST up reply actions

yep…you got me there. I wasn’t thinking about him. You know, I don’t read much talk from the Astros about Shuck making the team this year. Maybe if he continues to have a good spring, we will begin to hear quotes from Mills or Wade which include him in the mix.

by clack on Mar 9, 2011 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

One thing I find interesting is that Shuck hasn’t gotten any time at CF; I’d think that if they were considering him for the 5th OF spot they’d move him around a bit.

by Snake Diggity on Mar 9, 2011 4:00 PM CST up reply actions

I agree that bogey doesn’t have much mire to develop and really has hit his ceiling. I can see the scenario of him holding down an everyday job but at this point I see him as a 4th OFer.

Guys like shuck are better off getting everyday playing time as they are more likely to develop given their age and experience.

by Subber10 on Mar 9, 2011 4:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I don’t know about Bog. A guy who hit .270 or something like that against minor league pitching, what is going to happen when he sees Major League pitching? I would think a hitter comin from the minors regresses a little at the plate rather than excels. I hope im wrong and we have a real hitter on our hands

by Its Gonna Happen on Mar 9, 2011 4:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions

I think you have to evaluate Bogusevic a bit differently because he only recently switched to a full time player. I think Timmy’s point is that across the board improvement last year may portend continued improvement going forward.

by jmike on Mar 9, 2011 7:21 PM CST up reply actions

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