Houston Astros 2011 Season Preview: The Best Case Scenarios
by Timothy De Block on Mar 28, 2011 9:00 AM CDT
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PrintLet's get right to the punch. The best case scenario for the Astros in the 2011 season is they win the World Series, that's it.
(proof read)
Yup! Looks good. PRINT IT!
What's that, David? You want more?...but there is no....ow ow ow, you're hurting my arm! Okay fine! No need for the whip...
Baseball Prospectus has the Astros with a .2% chance to make the playoffs this upcoming season. No, that period is not a typing error. Point two percent is the Astros chance to make the playoffs, .1% to win the division and 0.0% to win the Wild Card. Now that I've thoroughly thrashed your optimism for this season, I'm here to tell you that the worst case scenario article will be tomorrow.
Realistically, what is the Best Case Scenario for the Astros this season?
I've been back and forth over two scenarios, competing this season or working towards the future. Typically when you think "best case scenario" you're talking about competing. Is it really better for the Astros to be competing? Every win just moves the organization down the draft board. That's how the Rays have appeared to do it. The Royals farm system is looking really good, and the Pirates...uh...well supposedly there going to finish ahead of the Astros so there ya go.
I do not subscribe to this train of thought however. The Ray's recent success in the draft appears to be a change of personnel in the organization. They've only recently begun plucking Major League players out of the draft for the last half decade. The Royals haven't picked outside of the top 15 since 1995 and the Pirates haven't since 2000. Having the right scouts and development personnel trumps draft slot every time. I like to think with Ed Wade and Bobby Heck coming from organizations who had success in the draft that we shouldn't have to worry too much about draft slot.
With that in mind, the best case scenario for the Astros is not to totally bomb out, or even make the playoffs. The best case scenario is to continue the development process with an eye towards the future while being competitive wouldn't hurt either.
Another year under Brad Arnsberg could do wonders for a pitching staff that found its groove in the second half of the season, and it's vital for both competing and the rebuilding process. I don't think it's secret that having a strong pitching staff is vital to a contending team. The Giants won it on pitching last year, and the Phillies appear to be the favorites with their four-headed monster. More important than pitching well is staying healthy for the course of the season. If any one of the top four starting pitchers go down, the replacement candidates are Ryan Rowland-Smith, Anuery Rodriguez, and Jordan Lyles. While I like all three, minimizing their innings would be necessary for both now and the future.
The other benefit of pitching well is that the Astros would then have the opportunity to possibly move someone at the deadline. A Brett Lawrie is rare, a Jeff Bagwell is even rarer, but being in any type of position to improve the farm system would be ideal.
Speaking of the farm system, having another solid draft in June with South Carolina's Jackie Bradley Jr. being the first new farm hand selected would be amazing. Of course, I'm a bit biased being from that part of the country. If we're talking best case scenario, the Astros hit it out of the park with this draft. They've had a solid few drafts now, but pulling the lever on the draft slot machine and taking the right players in a deep draft would push the organization one step further to respectability. We won't know how well the Astros truly did until a few years from now.
Best case for the hitters? New hitting coach Mike Barnett improves the offense from below average to just an average one; Carlos Lee bounces back; Clint Barmes proves the humidor is working; Bill Hall post his first back-to-back OPS+ over a 100 since 2006; J.R. Towles and Brett Wallace start realizing their potential while Chris Johnson continues to defy the statistics saying he's a fluke. That's a lot of question marks that have to be answered for just an average offense.
More important for the Astros is the continued development of the young players, primarily Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace who have issues of their own to overcome. For Johnson, it's coming down from the high he produced last year. How far he falls and how he handles it, if it even happens, has yet to be seen, but overcoming this would be a step in the right direction towards solidifying his position as a legit big league hitter. Wallace, on the other hand, has some mechanical issues to overcome. Mechanical issues that several have already said would be very difficult for him to overcome. If this spring is any indication, Wallace might have a huge year in the works.
But let's not forget one Jason Castro's who will be rehabilitating his knee, in an effort to be ready for 2012. All thumbs up for his rehab assignment with a possible September appearance would be ideal. As for the replacement, Towles finally filling out his offensive potential would allow me to writet an "I told you so" post about the Astros inability to give this kid a shot. He'd also make a nice trade piece, or provide a nice compliment offensively to Jason Castro in 2012.
Finally, let's talk about something not dealing with the Major League team at all. On the farm system, another good year out of the Minor League system would be crucial to the future success of the organization. A bounce back year from Jiovanni Mier would be amazing. Ben Heath showing off his guns again would help to improve the Astros catching depth. Another J.D. Martinez emerging (Dan Adamson, anyone?), Dallas Keuchel quietly continuing his thing at another level, Jonathan Villar and Jimmy Parades showing why the Astros were willing to let Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman go, would all be best case scenarios.
As you can tel,l this is not your typical best case scenario for a baseball team. Some will tell you what needs to go right for this team to make the playoffs, but that's just a bonus. More important would be the Astros continuing their youth movement. Spring is here and thankfully so is baseball.
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I think the two most significant players to watch are Chris Johnson and Brett Wallace. The Astros don’t have much chance at a best case scenario unless those two guys have break out years. As you have said, there are a lot of question marks surrounding those two corners of the infield. If they don’t succeed, then it is a setback to the Astros’ rebuilding, since the Astros will have to figure out how to fill those two positions in the future. If they become at least adequate, then they can bridge the next few years until the Astros’ system develops replacements. If they can become Astros’ bedrocks at 3d and 1st over the next 5 years or more than the Astros will feel very successful.
"adequate"
I think that’s a good term to describe Chris Johnson and probably Brett Wallace too, though I think Wallace has a better chance of putting up above average numbers. I think in Wallace’s case, he could replicate something along the lines of Adam LaRoche, where I think best case scenario for CJ is Pedro Feliz circa 2004-2007, just without the glove. I think they both could exceed those expectations, though it’s more likely that they won’t. If somehow both are able to live up to those type of careers, then they both have value, especially as pre-arb players.
by Reverend Koosh on Mar 28, 2011 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions
Best case scenario is a “shock the world” tour resulting from all the players performing to the top of their ability. Redemption songs from Wallace, Towles, and Manzella. Bounceback year for Carlos Lee. Repeat performance for Chris Johnson. Career years for Bourn, Pence, and Barmes. Hall harkening back to ’06. Repeat years for Myers, Happ, Figgy, and Lopez. And on and on. The team can be competitive.
Realistically (and I may be reaching), my best case scenario would be a winning, non-playoff team bouyed by optimism created by young players steadily improving. 82 wins with good years from Wallace, Towles, Johnson, Happ, Norris, Aneury, Melancon, Lopez, etc. I also would like to see each full season farm team post a winning record.
I almost hope we tank
but in a good way, send Myers and Rodriguez to the Yankees, fleece them in a deal, release Lee and celebrate by signing the 10 most expensive latin american amateur free agents.
Or a .500 season. Either works for me.
I think
This should be the make or break year for Ed Wade. `IMO he’s already broken, so I kind of hope they tank too. But, I will give Wade credit for his strengths which are personnel moves – getting Brad Arnsberg was by far his best move as GM and we should do everything we can to keep that man here for as long as possible – I also like Brad Mills. Also, he can sure pick out RP’s man. We have no shortage of those!
Problem is, we draft those kind of guys too. Im in the personal belief that our farm should be chugging along a lot better than it is now. Now I know the draft’s a crapshoot, but there’s plenty of situations where we didnt take the BPA and we should have, and now that BPA is on BA’s list and we have 2! 2 guys on the list? Cmon….
So it comes down to is Brett Wallace worth Roy Oswalt? Will he continue his ST success? I hope he does. Berkman was my favorite player, and Id like him to be close to what Berkman was. But I dont think he will be, so basically Ed Wade got a Adam Laroche, a “meh” pitcher for our #1 pitcher of all time and a surefire HOF’er, and a underachieving SS for my favorite player Berkman. PLUS, our farm is still 26th, and we have to hope that Brett Myers doesnt regress or beat his wife again, that Barmes isnt absolutely terribel (which is likely) and that Bill Hall plays better than Keppinger (which he wont) …
Im sorry but this team sucks, our farm sucks , and our FO sucks. Hopefully, Jim Crane comes in here, cleans shop, throws Tal Smith, Ed Wade out the door and gets us on the right path. Just my opinion.
by YohannDookeyblue on Mar 28, 2011 4:32 PM CDT reply actions
I love Roy O but...
I don’t think he’s anywhere close to a surefire HOF. He’s in the “hall of dang good” but not great. Unless he pulls off 3 more 20-win years, make a Cy Young run and wins at least one championship, I don’t see it happening.
I love the guy and have the upmost respect for what he has done for the franchise especially pitching in the tail end of the steroid era, but other than win % he doesn’t have the numbers.
Yep, he needs a few extremely good years to even have a shot of getting in.
And even though maybe the return for Oswalt wasn’t as great as it could have been, Wade didn’t have much leverage, nor did Berkman have much trade value at the time.
Really, they should have been dealt a year earlier, probably with Wandy. Maybe it was Drayton pushing as usual for win-first.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
The Astros are less than a year into the rebuilding process.
That’s the thing people tend to forget, the Astros should of started the rebuilding process two years ago. Instead they held off, and continued to try and win.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 29, 2011 7:09 AM CDT up reply actions
It's a shame, that the rebuilding process will be a year further out,
considering what could have been acquired for Berkman (especially coming off that really good 2008 season) and for Roy O in that same offseason.
Things certainly weren’t helped by the fact that the NL Central was so mediocre in 2009 until the Cards got Holliday, since it made them think as if they had a shot, when realistically, they were a team which had overachieved in winning 85 games in 2008, had let two solid contributors leave inexplicably for nothing (Wigginton had 3 WAR in 2008 and Wolf managed 1 in his short stint) and replaced them with junk in Hampton and Ortiz.
I guess it would’ve been too unreasonable to justify dealing Oswalt and Berkman in the 08-09 offseason to the general fanbase though, even if they probably would’ve stocked the farm up very nicely considering their trade values at the time. Instead, Berkman had an injury-prone 2009, managed to be even worse when he played in 2010, and what value he had left was mitigated by his status as a rental.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
I think Oswalt is borderline Hall of Fame, and he needs 3 or 4 good years to get in the HOF. He is probably in the top 2 or 3 best pitchers of the 2000’s decade. At this point, Oswalt is already the best pitcher in Astros’ team history, and that encompasses some very good pitchers including one who is in the HOF. Oswalt deserved a Cy Young Award in at least one year, and the lack of a CYA probably hurts his chances.
Some of his best years were overshadowed by Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte.
by Timothy De Block on Mar 29, 2011 7:12 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, he had his best seasons when Randy Johnson was at his peak...
and was surpassed by Chris Carpenter and Brandon Webb in 2005 and 2006 in terms of fWAR.
But yeah, in terms of consistent strong performance through the decae, he’s probably top 3 in the 2000s, and there might be a stat for it.
Remember to retire Fin's number, Mark.
"I've had people walk out on me before, but not when I was being so charming."
According to fangraphs, Top 3 in cumulative WAR for 2001-2010: Halladay, Sabbathia, and Oswalt. Oswalt and Sabbathia are very close in terms of WAR right now, and their positions could could shift based on how they perform relative to each other in the future. Oswalt out-performs Sabbathia in ERA, FIP, and x-FIP over that period, but Sabbathia has pitched more innings. Halliday looks best in every category but wins.
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Current Series
Astros lead the series 1-0
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
|
Houston Astros
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. |
||
| Sun 05/27 | 3:10 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:14 PM CDT)
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