Super Sunday Links 27 March 2011

so If Figueroa is the worst 5th starter in the NL, that must make him the worst starter in the NL. Gosh.

Maybe it’s because the author thinks that the Astros should be using younger players as starters because they have more future. But if that’s the criteria—as opposed to expected performance—then this is a ranking list different than it is portrayed.

Based on projection systems’ forecasted performance, Figueroa is nowhere close to the worst No. 5 starter. For ease of reference, I looked at the Bill James and Marcel projections for each of the No. 5 starters. Figueroa is projected to post ERA/FIP in the 4.0 – 4.13 range. The only NL No. 5 starters who project to be equal or better: Capuano and Zito (about the same as Figueroa), plus Gorzellany and McClelland (whom project at ERAs in the high 3’s). Now, I’m not saying that this means Figueroa is the fifth best No. 5 starter, but I sure think it means that he shouldn’t be last on the list. Jason Hammels is listed in the article as No. 1 among No. 5 starters, and maybe he is—-even though I think his stock has risen so much among baseball bloggers that he may be overrated. His projected ERA is in the mid-4’s, but that probably is distorted by Coors.

The author says that Figueroa isn’t likely to last the year in the No. 5 spot, and I tend to agree with that view. But that’s true of many, if not most, of the No. 5 starters. Figueroa hasn’t pitched a full season’s worth of starter innings in the majors, and I would have concerns about projecting more than 120 innings for him. To some extent, Figueroa is a placeholder at the 5 slot until Lyles or Aneury Rodriguez is ready to move up.

but he’s not the worst out there. I do think he’ll give up that 5th spot quickly though. A younger guy needs the opportunity.

Ehh.