Trading For Brett Myers Makes Cents

by conroestro on Dec 9, 2011 4:13 AM CST in Houston Astros Hot Stove News

The Astros are looking to trade veterans Brett Myers, Carlos Lee, and Wandy Rodriguez this offseason. In Myers and Lee’s case they are reportedly willing to cover up to half of their contracts in order to help facilitate a trade. Even with the salary relief it seems doubtful that Carlos Lee will be able to be traded as external factors such as his partial no trade clause and the fact that even with half of Lee’s salary covered, the receiving team would still be responsible for about $9 million which is a lot of money for Carlos Lee. However, at the same 50% discount Myers seems to look more appealing to a potential receiving team.

Myers has been a workhouse for the Astros the last two seasons, and there is no reason to believe that he can’t pitch 200+ innings again this upcoming season. Over Brett’s nine year career he has averaged an ERA of 4.24, and an FIP of 4.36. Given the fact that last season’s ERA and FIP were close to his career totals there is no reason to expect these numbers to deviate that far from his career totals for the 2012 season. Basically, Myers would be a decent 4th starter on most contending teams.

The graph below compares Myers 2011 season to the 4th best starter as determined by FIP of each team that made the playoffs this past season:

Player	Team	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	FIP	WAR	2011 Salary
Brett Myers	Astros	216	6.67	2.38	4.46	4.26	1.5	$11M
Joe Saunders	Diamondbacks	212	4.58	2.84	3.69	4.78	1.0	$5.5M
Jeremy Hellickson	Devil Rays	189	5.57	3.43	2.95	4.44	1.4	$0.418M
Jake Westbrook	Cardinals	183.1	5.11	3.58	4.66	4.25	1.1	$8M
Brad Penny	Tigers	181.2	3.67	3.07	5.3	5.02	0.8	$3M
Alexi Ogando	Rangers	167	6.68	2.32	3.56	3.68	3.5	$0.430M
Chris Narveson	Brewers	158.2	7.03	3.63	4.54	4.08	1.5	$0.444M
Freddy Garcia	Yankees	145.2	5.87	2.72	3.58	4.12	2.2	$1.5M
Roy Oswalt	Phillies	139	6.02	2.14	3.69	3.44	2.5	$9M

Myers ranking:

Innings Pitched = 1st

Strikeouts per nine innings = 3rd

Walks per nine innings = 3rd

Earned Run Average = 6th

Fielding Independent Pitching = 6th

Wins Above Replacement = 5th

While not being extremely flashy in any particular category other than innings pitched Myers 2011 season compared favorably to most of the other 4th starter types on last season’s playoff teams. The one glaring fact that hurts Myers trade value is his salary. He was paid the most out of all of the other pitchers on this list when taken into account the $7 million the Astros sent with Oswalt to cover part of the $16 million he was due. However, if the Astros cover half of his 2012 salary as reported then Myers will only cost the receiving team about $5.5 million, and at that price he would be a solid investment for a competitive team.

There are better starting pitcher options available in the free agent market as well as other trade options, but they would require longer commitments. As OremLK mentioned in another thread discussing Wandy’s trade value, the free agent pitching class next offseason figures to be significantly stronger than this year’s group. Therefore some teams may not want to overpay in free agency or in prospects via trade for a mediocre starter this year when better options should become available next offseason. Picking up a short-term commitment like 1-year of Brett Myers at a reasonable price could buy the big spender’s time until the pitcher they want becomes available next offseason.

Tweet Comment 100 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I vote

We keep Brett until he can recover some of the trade value he had in 2010. Let’s review for a quick second shall we? Brett Myers signed with the Astros after coming off of an injury (hip, I do believe). He was once a promising young flamethrower with the Phillies, a real bulldog on the mound. He joins the Astros with just over a 4.0 ERA for his career but somehow manages to have a career year and sport an ERA in the mid 3’s. He comes back from his injury to stack up an outstanding number of innings, pitching into the 6th inning for a record number of consecutive starts. He proved in his first year with the Astros he was a true warrior on the mound and would battle to give the team a chance to win the game.

Now maybe, just maybe, he over-worked himself that first year. That’s at least what we’re hoping happened, because the Brett Myers from 2010 would have kicked the Brett Myers from 2011 square in the arse for the way he pitched in his second year. Either way Myers’ trade value is about as low as it can get after giving up an unreasonable amount of long balls last year, and if a team was to take a chance on him, they wouldn’t be giving up much…if anything.

I say we let Myers start off the year in an Astros jersey and let him get back some of that value that he once had. I mean what’s the worst that could happen, its not like his value could get much worse? If there’s one good thing about hitting bottom, its that there’s nowhere to go but up!

by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 9, 2011 6:13 AM CST via mobile reply actions

I don't know

I could probably name a half-dozen pitchers with the same FIP who are being paid the major league minimum. Wade overpaid Myers for a career season – always a mistake.

I think Myers is an Astro until the end of his contract for the primary reason that nobody wants him. Otherwise, we might be able to get a low-level mid-upside prospect in return for eating most of his salary. No thanks.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 9, 2011 8:03 AM CST reply actions

yeah, but how many of those half dozen pitchers can pitch 200 innings? Myers is the classic innings eater. I think that Myers could have some positive regression toward his FIP. A pitcher who can pitch 200 innings and post an ERA in the 4.00 – 4.50 range has value. These guys help save bullpens. I think he would fetch $6 or $ 7 million on the free agent market, which means that the Astros would have to eat some salary in order to trade him. I don’t disagree with It’s Gonna Happen’s proposal; and I don’t think it’s a reach to think that he could start off the season well and become more valuable at the trade deadline. But I don’t believe that’s Jim Crane’s thinking. I think he wants him off the books now.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 10:08 AM CST up reply actions

I kind of think Myers is valuable to us more than another team. One of our pitchers has to eat some innings, right? If we were going to have to eat most of the salary to move him for a fringe prospect, we might as well just keep his 200 mediocre innings.

by MadMartygan on Dec 9, 2011 10:16 AM CST up reply actions

When you actually begin searching for teams that might trade for him, rather than “in the abstract,” it is a harder question. I think Myers is more marketable to NL teams. Also teams with pitcher-friendly ballparks would be better fits, since it’s possible he might have an above average season in those surroundings. Perhaps the Mets or Padres could be possibilities? I’m thinking that comparing him to contenders’ rotations isn’t realistic. I can’t think of any contenders that would be happy with him. I just can’t imagine the Rangers, Yankees or Red Sox trading for him. So, I’m thinking he is more valuable to a non-contending NL team that wants a veteran pitcher at the bottom of their rotation to eat innings.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 10:24 AM CST up reply actions

Right, I agree with that, but I think that non contending team could also just as easily be Houston. I suppose if it’s an issue of just getting rid of every contract, I could see it, but we still need those 200 innings to come from somewhere. Norris, Lyles and Happ have trouble pitching deep(I’m assuming Wandy is traded by opening day) any Myers replacement figures to be a young guy.

by MadMartygan on Dec 9, 2011 10:37 AM CST up reply actions

With a rotation of Norris, Lyles, Happ then a combination of Sosa, Aneury, Clemens, and any other in house options, you’re gonna expose the weaker parts of your bullpen often.

by MadMartygan on Dec 9, 2011 10:41 AM CST up reply actions

good point.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 10:43 AM CST up reply actions

Ya, true.

I cant name one player that can be an innings eater if we lose both, myers and wandy.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 11:35 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah that is a good point. Those teams would probably want a better option than him in their rotation.

by conroestro on Dec 9, 2011 10:39 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

I agree. Not for for sure how much money Crane would be willing to eat, but if it is half as reported then that would put Myers at 5.5 million. I think he would be valuable for that price. I’m not for sure what type of prospects they could get in return, but it seems like he should at least draw interest from teams this offseason.

by conroestro on Dec 9, 2011 10:22 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Myers is only slightly overpaid. If he were a free agent, I believe he could command a 2 yr, $18M deal. If Houston eats 1/2 his salary, they should expect a decent prospect or 2 in return. At least comparable to what was received in the Keppinger trade, I’m thinking 1 org top 10 prospect (in the 5-10 range) and 1 org top 30 prospect. I wouldn’t mind seeing him sent to Colorado for Cristhian Adames and Greg Reynolds.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2011 9:23 AM CST reply actions

Freidman strikes again.

@jcrasnick #Rays reach agreement with Matt Moore on 5-year, $14M contract, source says

by MadMartygan on Dec 9, 2011 10:42 AM CST reply actions

Sweet jesus, that's a steal

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 11:30 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

And it looks like it can become an 8 year deal that would be worth 40 million. That’s amazing.

by MadMartygan on Dec 9, 2011 11:54 AM CST up reply actions

Ya, that deal is promising

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 12:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Unless Myers is that unidentified clubhouse cancer Richard Justice wrote about

it makes litte sense to trade him. Basically, if Astros eat half his contract, either way the question is whether he is worth 5,5 million to the Astros. I’d say yes.

Astros young pitchers need someone with experience in the rotation.

Astros need a reliable workshorse who can give bullpen rest .

Astro likely have a better chance of winning a game with Myers in there than with a replacement, and Astros need a few wins.

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 9, 2011 11:30 AM CST reply actions

I gather everyone has concluded

a "Worst to First " season is not in the offing?

Astros fan for life

by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 9, 2011 11:36 AM CST reply actions

Im still optimisitic to this point, but its fading fast.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 11:40 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

I don’t think a worst-to-not-worst season is even possible. I think worse-to-worser is very possible.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 9, 2011 11:41 AM CST up reply actions

NO!!!!!! stop it

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 11:43 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

LOL

Sorry. If it helps, I feel very confident in the Astros long-term status. Like 2016.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 9, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah, the blueprint laid is promising now.

by conroestro on Dec 9, 2011 12:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Waaaaait a second....are you John Heyman?

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 12:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I don't think we should assume that

the Astros are looking to trade both Myers and Rodriguez just because they happen to be shopping both. Almost certainly they want to keep one of them to eat 200ish innings and have a reliable veteran anchor for the starting rotation. In the absence of both of the them, the Astros would tax the bullpen and other subpar starters mightily and drive away scores of would-be ticket buyers given the associated propensity towards losses and particularly ugly ones. I just can’t see them both leaving town, at least not at this stage of the rebuilding process.

by reillocity on Dec 9, 2011 1:37 PM CST reply actions

I don’t know. So far I trust what Crane says. He hasn’t given a reason to doubt him yet. If a deal was presented it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go.

by conroestro on Dec 9, 2011 2:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

At this stage, it seems safe to pencil Myers, Wandy, and Norris in for roughly 200IP each

and assume that Melancon and Lopez will pitch well in relief. Everything else is a crapshoot as far as the pitching staff goes. Subtract out the combined 400ish IP of Wandy and Myers, and you’re looking at a scenario where 700 to 750 starting pitcher IP will have to be assumed by the likes of Lyles, Happ, Sosa, Aneury, Harrell, Cedeno, one or two major-league-ready but fringy starting pitchers brought in those trades, and perhaps a Clemens, Oberholtzer, Keuchel, or Cosart (least likely) as the season wears on. That’s a potentially horrific scenario to watch unfold, even by 2011 Astros standards. Keeping Wandy or Myers around until at least the stretch run and aiming to net 500 to 550 IP from that sketchy group of starting rotation candidates listed above seems a lot more sensible to me – asking 3 of them to hurl 170 innings beats asking 4 of them to hurl 180 innings.

by reillocity on Dec 9, 2011 2:35 PM CST up reply actions

I think there’s enough depth in the reliever corps to lessen the blow of trading Myers and Wandy, not to mention that in the event both Wandy and Myers are moved, a cheap free agent may be brought in to eat some innings.

Escalona, Del Rosario, F Rod, Lyon, Carpenter, Abreu, Lopez, Melancon, and Henry Villar have all pitched well enough at the big league level. Cruz, Sosa, Abad, Wright, Valdez, Aneury, and Cedeno are others who may be able to help. Later into next season guys like Clemens, Keuchel, Leon, etc. may be able to contribute.

I wouldn’t mind seeing this opening day roster:

CF Bourgeois (although I’d like a free agent brought in)
2B Altuve
1B Wallace
LF Martinez
RF Bogusevic
3B Paredes
C Quintero (again, I’d like a free agent brought in)
SS Marwin Gonzalez
Bench: Downs, Johnson, Buck, Shuck, Castro
Rotation: Norris, Happ, Lucas Harrell (high on him), Brad Peacock (acquired for Wandy), Chris Young (free agent)
Bullpen: Escalona, F Rod, Lyon, Carpenter, Abreu, Lopez, Melancon

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2011 2:50 PM CST up reply actions

You've brought up the even better question which is

Is it even feasible that Myers and Wandy AND Lee could be traded before the season starts? That seems like an almost impossible feat for Luhnow to pull off. My guess is that only Wandy or Myers gets traded by April 1.

by reillocity on Dec 9, 2011 3:13 PM CST up reply actions

It depends on how much groundwork Gottfried did during the meetings. It’s possible that there are several deals in place, and if Luhnow likes them, they could go down pretty quickly. I’m under the impression that Crane wants those contracts gone and the payroll trimmed like, yesterday.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2011 4:14 PM CST up reply actions

Jordan Shafer? I really can't see Cran wasting money on Young, just for him to get hurt again.

Henry Villar was SO inconsistent at AA.
And I’m guessing you’d like Lyles at AAA.
I feel like this team is gonna be the Nationals of ’09.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 3:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Obviously Young would have to come in on a very low-end deal, less than $1M or a minor-league deal. Villar did well in 2010 while he was up. Lyles, Clemens, Keuchel, Aneury, and Cedeno would be my AAA rotation to start.

This is going to be a VERY young team this season. I get the sense that Crane/etc want to find out which of these young guys are actually going to be a part of the foundation moving forward, and I expect Luhnow to slow the promotion process for the higher-end prospects. I expect we’ll see Singleton back in Lancaster, Cosart in Corpus, etc.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 9, 2011 4:17 PM CST up reply actions

I think Singleton up to AA is probably a 50/50 shot.

Cosart, ehhh, I’d say he stays in AA till promo. season, unless he dominates.
I agree with you on everything pretty much.
I can’t imagine seeing J.D in RF though, that and SS are my biggest worries. Good thing we picked up Gonzales, I can see him as a very valuable player in the near future(don’t know why).

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 4:32 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Also, where do you see Schafer?

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 4:33 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I’d like to see Schafer in AAA to start the year. I think he needs work and a low pressure situation. But I doubt that’s Houston’ plan; I assume he’ll compete for the CF job this year and enter spring as the leader.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 12, 2011 9:14 AM CST up reply actions

I can’t remember if I mentioned it to you or not yet Snake Diggity, but the Astros did acquire a shortstop in the rule 5 draft which is what you wanted and I kept telling you there weren’t any.

I hope I don’t end up being right.

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 12:29 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

I like the Gonzalez pick. If they’ weren’t going to bring in a viable Free Agent (like Barmes), this was the move I was hoping they’d make. Low risk, high reward move. Although I wonder who the greatest infielder ever taken in the Rule 5 was?

by Snake Diggity on Dec 12, 2011 9:15 AM CST up reply actions

Uggla is the best, probably?

I have read that shortstops are not likely to be good Rule 5 candidates because teams go out of their way to protect shortstops. The Padres’ 2009 Rule 5 pick (off the Rockies A- level team), Everth Cabrera, became the team’s starting shortstop that year. He had a promising 2009 season (.703 OPS), but his performance fell apart in succeeding seasons.

by clack on Dec 12, 2011 2:20 PM CST up reply actions

oooh, Uggla. Forgot about him. There’s some hope.

I think defense is harder to pin down, and it seems like by most accounts Marwin’s bat should play well enough for a SS, so maybe we got something.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 12, 2011 4:36 PM CST up reply actions

If anything, Mar-Go is just another Angel Sanchez with perhaps a better bat

Nevertheless, he might be the best we got.

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

by BustaPozee on Dec 12, 2011 5:47 PM CST up reply actions

I don’t want to have too many preconceptions about Gonzalez, since I would like for him to work out for the Astros. But his AAA offensive stats don’t translate well to the majors; the PCL is such a high offense environment that a low .700’s OPS translates to an OPS in the .500’s. Let’s hope he is better than that.

by clack on Dec 12, 2011 6:07 PM CST up reply actions

It would be nice to see him workout.

by conroestro on Dec 13, 2011 9:13 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

That's a 110 loss team

assuming no one gets injured. Sky is the limit (in terms of losses) if any of those players fail to improve on last year.

by Terps12 on Dec 10, 2011 9:21 AM CST up reply actions

Possibly.

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 9:39 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

There is not practical difference between a 90 loss team

and a 110+ loss team, except locking down the #1 pick that is.

by Crzycjunx76 on Dec 10, 2011 6:12 PM CST up reply actions

Well at least we can't lose more than 162 games...

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

by BustaPozee on Dec 12, 2011 5:47 PM CST up reply actions

or can we? hmmmmmmm

by Uncle Chris on Dec 12, 2011 6:07 PM CST up reply actions

myers trade etc

no no no… myers is worth $13million…per yr…he is a horse…200 innings…guaranteed…4.24 e.r.a. geez…better than many… hold out new gm hold out till it is 100 percent…and get good prospects in return… good news the new ss.. he is young guy, but ready for major leagues on rebuilding team….great rule 5… the relief pitcher also… great pick… NOW in spring wk on getting a fixed roster and stng lineup….start season thinking of winning …. see what happens…if u do not trade wandy and/or myers do not worry about it….go ahead start them…. maybe or maybe not trade later… to new mgr… u r in drivers seat… you have a bunch of good guys in system…and you should trade carefully and tough… everyone wants myers and wandy…these are 2 very good pitchers… wade left you a pretty full cupboard..spring training is going to be fun….mike h

by Mike HJALM on Dec 9, 2011 2:00 PM CST reply actions

I want summa that Kool-Aid

by CRPerry13 on Dec 9, 2011 2:33 PM CST up reply actions

I havent looked at the #'s, but Ross Ohlendorf wouldn't be a bad pickup for minor league deal.

Just throwing that idea around…

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 3:25 PM CST via mobile reply actions

I thought about that too, partly because I always liked Ohlendorf. But looking at Fangraphs, I see that he had a horrible 2011 with an ERA over 8. I wonder if he had any arm injuries? His BABIP is very high (.372); so if he is healthy, I would expect some regression to a lower BABIP. If he will sign a NRI, he could serve as AAA depth if he doesn’t make the rotation.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 4:03 PM CST up reply actions

Pretty much exaclty what I was thinking

I knew his ’11 year was terrible, but I think it was shoulder related, his injury.

But his ’10 season, I remember ppl saying he could be their horse, which always catched my ears.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 4:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

*cought

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 4:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

*caught

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 4:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

He is from Austin, Tx, by the way. My recollection is that his parents are academics at UT. Being close to home might influence him to sign with the Astros.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 4:37 PM CST up reply actions

Forgot all about that, I remember Bill Brown always saying his parents are professors.

And Ohlendorf went to Princeton, so why wouldn’t he sign?

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 5:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I would not complain if we picked him up.

by mike_o on Dec 9, 2011 10:13 PM CST up reply actions

Conroestro, I applaud you for your headline.

It’s 1/2 genius, 1/2 awesome.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 6:39 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Thanks

Figured I’d try a lame attempt for a play on words.

by conroestro on Dec 9, 2011 7:40 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yup.

I thought it was awesome when I first noticed.

Just saying.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 10:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Slightly relevant note. The A’s are completing a trade of Cahill to the D-Backs for 3 or 4 prospects.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 6:51 PM CST reply actions

Couldn't believe it when I saw that on Twitter..

I guess I could since it’s the A’s.
But ya, I was shocked when I saw this. The A’s are getting alot in return though.
Makes me really wonder how good the A’s could be in large market.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 7:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I have seen some speculation that the A’s trade is spurred along by the Angels’ spending binge at the winter meetings—-essentially making the A’s lengthen their target time frame for contending.

by clack on Dec 9, 2011 8:43 PM CST up reply actions

That franchise is just going to keep going in circles with trades like that (OAK).

by mike_o on Dec 9, 2011 10:12 PM CST up reply actions

They desperatly need to move to San Jose.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 11:37 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Does the Trevor Cahill trade mean that Gio Gonzalez is now off the market?

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 1:50 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Not sure.

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 6:19 AM CST up reply actions

I guess the A's are open for mote trades.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/as-notes-gio-bailey-trades-ballpark.html

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 11:04 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Looks like the A’s are just building for a time when the Angels and Rangers aren’t good. All of these guys were already pretty young, right?

by MadMartygan on Dec 10, 2011 11:07 AM CST up reply actions

I thought they were.

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 11:18 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yep, their whole pitching staff was young...

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 10, 2011 12:19 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

There are arguments to be made for both sides of the trade. However, some people feel like this is a good trade for the A’s. It’s possible that the A’s don’t view Cahill as a high ceiling pitcher, and they might view this as selling high. Cahill’s K rate has been mediocre in the majors, and he relies heavily on his defense for outs.

Parker is a good pitching prospect who is close to major league ready, and some people believe he will be as good or better than Cahill. In fact, all three prospects received by the A’s are major league ready (since the other two prospects, a CFer and relief pitcher, were called up briefly by the D-Backs). When you look at that way, the reasoning of the A’s in understandable.

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 8:15 AM CST up reply actions

It kinda looks like 50 cents on the dollar for the A’s. Parker is a great prospect, but Cahill is already a very good major league starter. Cook is a decent reliever prospect, but Breslow is already a decent major league reliever. Cowgill is 25 already and made mincemeat out of the league at Reno, but then, who doesnt? His pre-Reno stats aren’t anything that seems to make him even out this trade.

I don’t get it.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 10, 2011 8:26 AM CST up reply actions

Dave Pinto as Baseball Musings seems to like the trade for the A’s. Cowgill profiles as a high OBP-good defense CFer that would appeal to the sabermetric view—not a high ceiling star, but someone who can produce immediate value in CF at a low cost. I think this trade comes down to how one evaluates Cahill and Parker. Pinto is not big on Cahill. And after reading his comment, I looked at Cahill’s stats, and I would agree that his K rate is big red flag for his future as a high level starter.

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 8:36 AM CST up reply actions

I can see some rational thought to the A's decision.

Cahill is signed to a 5 year contract. Next year, his salary is $3.5 million which is reasonable. But the salary escalates at a good clip in subsequent years until it reaches $13.5 million in the last year. I suspect that the A’s locked him up to this contract, thinking that it would be necessary to trade him at some point. If you have come to the conclusion that there is a good chance that he will not develop much beyond a low-4’s FIP pitcher, then it’s understandable for the A’s to trade him now, while his value is high and the salary is low, rather than at the middle of the contract where his future salary could be an impediment to trade.

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 9:02 AM CST up reply actions

Don't get me wrong

I’m not a huge Cahill fan. But it still seems to be trading a couple known and predictable commodities for a big bag of “IF”. It’s a typical Beane trade in that sense.

I will say they have gaping holes at all three outfield positions. If his goal is to be as cheap as possible, throwing Cowgill into CF and just seeing how he can play isn’t the worst idea in the world.

However, it’s looking like a possibility that the Astros won’t be the 5th-ranked team in the AL West at the end of 2013. I just don’t like anybody in the A’s lineup except for Weeks, and he’s not a game-changer type.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 10, 2011 9:06 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah, but most trades are trading a known commodity for a big bag of ifs. The same can be said about the Pence trade.

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 9:34 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

I agree with this author:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/oakland-flips-trevor-cahill-for-jarrod-parker-prospects/

I didn’t realize Cahill will only be 24 in 2012. That makes me like the trade even less.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 10, 2011 3:13 PM CST up reply actions

Cowgill seems very much like a Billy Beane player

I suspect he was quite important to this deal, for the A’s.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Dec 10, 2011 9:25 AM CST up reply actions

Dang it

Right in the middle of penning my piece on the A’s. I hate Billy Beane.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 10, 2011 8:22 AM CST up reply actions

Maybe this means some Astros prospects will be on the fast track?

I found a quote from Luhnow in 2009 in which he points the importance of age in evaluating players, and says that potential star quality players should be promoted quickly through the minors. I did a search at baseball musings for this quote, and for some reason I couldn’t get it copy. So I’ll just link the search and you can read it under the heading “Prompt Promotions.”

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 8:25 AM CST reply actions

I wonder which potential star players he's referring to?

I guess Singleton and Springer, but throwing them into the fire sounds risky and expensive.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 10, 2011 8:27 AM CST up reply actions

The linked quote was from 2009, and at that time he would have been referring to the Cardinals. But really it’s more of a philosophical statement on his part that star quality prospects tend to be capable of playing in the majors at 22 or 23. So, I’m just speculating on how it affects the Astros.

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 8:29 AM CST up reply actions

I wouldn’t mind that. It doesn’t seem like there’s anything wrong with challenging prospects as long as they show signs they can handle it.

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 9:37 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Looks like Manny Ramirez has been reinstated from the retirement list..

…but I doubt anybody takes a shot at him, though he could be one of the high reward players, you never really know, even though he’s been terrible the last cpl years.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 10, 2011 11:00 AM CST via mobile reply actions

Good old Manny.

by conroestro on Dec 10, 2011 11:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Speaking of PEDs

Holy Crap! Ryan Braun 50 game suspension.

by MadMartygan on Dec 10, 2011 6:46 PM CST up reply actions

The division is ours.

by MadMartygan on Dec 10, 2011 6:47 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

It’s too bad that the Astros won’t be in any shape to compete this year. With Braun gone for 50 games and Pujols out of the division, it’s a good time to try and compete for the NL Central. I wonder if this will change any of Theo Epstein’s plans in Chicago. Perhaps the Cubs might sign Fielder or make some other signings that they otherwise would have passed on.

by clack on Dec 10, 2011 7:20 PM CST up reply actions

Perhaps Wandy to Cincy?

by MadMartygan on Dec 10, 2011 7:24 PM CST up reply actions

That was some crazy crap!!!

He was my first round pick on fantasy team(#7). I couldn’t believe it.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 10, 2011 11:43 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Yeah, that really surprised me also. Sounds like he intends on fighting it.

by conroestro on Dec 11, 2011 12:21 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

Im beginning to think steroid tests are faulty

All tests have faults. I don’t believe Ryan Braun juiced. I think this will prove to be a false positive.

I dont believe Cushing was on Roids (at the time) either. Look at him now, finally healthy, and the dude is just naturally a BEAST. Some people can have higher testerone levels… correction ELITE athletes can have higher testosterone levels. And theres always the possibilty of false positives.

by YohannDookeyblue on Dec 11, 2011 1:33 AM CST up reply actions

The bad part for Braun is that the testoterone was identified as synthetic. It seem difficult for him to overcome.

by clack on Dec 11, 2011 6:44 AM CST up reply actions

that said, the fair thing to do is wait for Braun’s appeal to be completed before jumping to conclusions.

by clack on Dec 11, 2011 9:01 AM CST up reply actions

And Mark Trumbo is a possibility for a trade target...

if the price isn’t to high, he could be a nice young player to build around, although it’s highly unlikely.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 10, 2011 11:06 AM CST via mobile reply actions

As CRperry said, I'm sipping on kewl-aid, throwing around ideas.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 10, 2011 11:07 AM CST via mobile up reply actions

What?

Jon_Heyman Jon Heyman
No evidence of interest in carlos lee yet. Guy did have 90-plus rbis for awful team. May need prince to come off board 1st

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

by BustaPozee on Dec 10, 2011 11:33 AM CST reply actions

Remember, it's Jon Heyman.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 10, 2011 12:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Hahaha…RBIs. Like that means anything.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Dec 10, 2011 12:26 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Comments For This Post Are Closed

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

The Importance of George Springer

by ntn 11 days ago

27 comments | 2 recs

Recent FanPosts

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Current Series

Astros lead the series 1-0

Fri 05/25	WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3) SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2)	3 - 1 win
Houston Astros The Crawfish Boxes @ Los Angeles Dodgers True Blue LA Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Dodger Stadium Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. Complete Coverage >
Sun 05/27		3:10 PM CDT

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Cincinnati Red Reporter	25	20	.555	0	Lost 1
St. Louis Viva El Birdos	25	21	.543	0.5	Lost 2
Houston The Crawfish Boxes	22	23	.488	3	Won 4
Pittsburgh Bucs Dugout	21	24	.466	4	Won 1
Milwaukee Brew Crew Ball	19	26	.422	6	Won 2
Chicago Bleed Cubbie Blue	15	30	.333	10	Lost 10