Rule 5 Draft
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 3:22 AM CST
in Houston Astros Hot Stove News
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PrintWhile most Astros fans were not anticipating seeing their teams name in the headlines during this year’s annual Winter Meetings, they will wake up this morning to find that Cardinals vice president of player procurement Jeff Luhnow has been named the new General Manager.
In addition to this Astros fans will have the rule 5 draft to follow this morning. If you missed Timmy’s article earlier this week profiling potential draftees be sure to check it out. In Mctaggart’s Winter Meeting recap he talks briefly about the rule 5 draft and stated that the Astros are expected to be active in the draft. Two of the names he mentioned in the article are Brad Meyers of the Nationals and Jordan Danks of the White Sox which have been mentioned frequently so far in this year’s rule 5 discussions. He also mentions two other potential draftees in Ryan Flaherty and Terry Doyle that I wanted to briefly discuss here before the draft just in case one of them is picked by the Astros.
Terry Doyle
Doyle was drafted in the 37th round of the 2008 draft by the White Sox and has spent the last three years as a starter in their organization. After pitching 24 innings as a reliever in 2008 in rookie ball, Doyle returned to rookie ball in 2009 as a starter and logged 57.1 innings. In 2010 his innings total jumped to 168.1 between A and A+ ball, and rose again in 2010 to 173 between the A+ and AA levels. The highest level Doyle has reached so far has been AA where he was solid with a 3.24 ERA, 6.57 K/9, and a 1.98 BB/9 in his 100 innings pitched at the level. Doyle possesses a full repertoire featuring a low 90’s fastball while also mixing in a slider, curveball, and changeup. Doyle’s stock has rose this offseason as he had a very impressive stint in the AFL this fall going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 22 strikeouts, and 5 walks in 27.1 innings. Below are a few links on Terry Doyle.
http://soxbronzetitan.wordpress.com/2011/11/11/mlb-coms-terry-doyle-scouting-report/
Ryan Flaherty
Utility infielder Ryan Flaherty’s name has been mentioned more often as a candidate for this year’s draft. Offensively Flaherty has been solid in the minors with a career .278/.346/.462 slash line. In 2011 Flaherty hit a combined .280/.347/.478 with 50 walks, 99 strikeouts, and 19 homeruns. The downside to Flaherty’s game seems to be his defense as he started his career as a shortstop, but has since been moved off the position to second base, and has also seen time at third base and the corner outfield spots. Given his 6-foot-5 220 pound frame, many think that Flaherty projects best as a third baseman. Below are a few links on Ryan Flaherty.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=flaherty
http://projectprospect.com/article/2011/08/10/brett-jackson-and-ryan-flaherty-game-report
In Jonathan Mayo’s rule 5 draft preview Mayo states that rumors from the Winter Meetings were that the Astros were looking at taking more than one player, and could start with a pitcher with the No. 1 pick. If they choose to go with a starter then Brad Meyers, Terry Doyle, or a Nick Barnese all seem like viable candidates to stick on a major league roster all year.
Feel free to discuss the Astros rule 5 pick. Good luck Astros!
EDIT from clack: Astros select Mets' Rhinel Cruz with the first pick and pass on subsequent 2d round.
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I hope they get to take a chance on Stowell witht the second pick. He seems to have awesome potential (dominant closer) and we could really use a hard thrower…
The first pick will need to replace the vacancy that either Wandy or Brett will leave in the starting rotation.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 8, 2011 4:12 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Probably not
Footer tweeted that Gottfried and Heck will be running the show.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Dec 8, 2011 7:13 AM CST up reply actions
Really really hoping they take Pham
I honestly don’t understand why they would consider taking Danks over him, I don’t think Danks’ bat has any shot of playing in the majors
Another rumor is that the Astros will pick 23 year old CFer Jiwan James. Seems like a stretch for the 25 man roster, but maybe he could be used mostly as a pinch runner/defensive replacement. Here is a nutshell summary of James at baseballnewshound.com :
Converted from a pitcher to a full-time position player three years ago, James embodies the phrase "raw five-tool prospect". His immense athleticism, plus-plus running speed and cannon arm strength make him a potential Gold Glove centerfielder, while his impressive hand-eye coordination and average raw power give him the tools to be a complete player in the big leagues. Still raw, he remains a bit of a project, but the twenty-two-year-old has done nothing but improve the past two seasons. If he can hone his plate discipline and pitch recognition, he could develop in to an Adam Jones or Randy Winn-type centerfielder with value on both sides of the ball.
James would be a good pickup from the upside perspective
Like you, I’m skeptical he can stay on the roster. I think of him along the sames lines as Domingo Santana, Domonic Brown, and other toolsy outfielders of the like which the Phillies organization seems to grab by the bucketful.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I like James
But I’d rather him be a trade target than Rule 5 selection. Or maybe they take him and then work a deal to keep him as is common.
Well, if anyone has the opportunity to hide him away on a roster it would be the Astros. They have enough depth at AAA in AAAA outfield types that they could hide him away on a roster as the 5th outfielder, and could tap into AAA for another 4th outfielder in the event that an injury occurs. That would make the outfield group pretty uninspiring this year, but maybe they should be looking at potential anyways since they don’t figure to be competitive this year.
I also read that Cosart is praying that the Astros takes his good buddy Jiwan, and that the Phillies will be sad that they did not protect him.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 8:09 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Via Facebook
Jarred Cosart
Prayin the Astros select my boy Jiwan James in the MLB Rule 5 draft tomorrow. Wouldn’t be happier than if i got a chance to play with him again and bring winning back to houston.
I would be thrilled if we picked up James.
I doubt we would be able to keep him on the roster, since he’s still such a raw player, but he has much more upside than any other position player in this draft.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 8:41 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Then what's the point?
If we pick him and don’t keep him on the roster, he goes back to the Phillies.
Because his upside makes it worth the risk.
It’d be more interesting than just grabbing another reliever.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 8:53 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
There's always the possibility for a trade
Teams working deals to keep Rule 5 picks and send them to the minors is pretty common
Yes...
I’m not sure what you’re getting at. Taking them in the Rule 5 gives the Astros leverage in a deal, as they have the option of keeping him on the roster and not giving anything up for him. They’re just trading for the luxury of being able to send him down to the farm.
The team would have to be committed to keeping him as a defensive replacement / pinch runner on the major league roster, since his hitting apparently is the question mark. That takes some flexibility away from the major league team, though it’s not like teams haven’t kept players with narrow roles like that (Glen Barker anyone?). If the Astros aren’t willing to marginalize one position on the ML roster like that, then they shouldn’t take him.
He is BA’s No. 9 Phillies’ prospect; I’m not sure that they would trade him cheaply if the Astros have to send him back.
What time does the draft start?
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
Nevermind, found it
10 AM EST for anyone else wondering
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
Jiwan James
Does anyone think that James could possibly be available still with the second pick reminded he is so raw. I’m sure a lot of teams may pass on him the first time through with more useful picks for their immediate roster needs this year.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 8:18 AM CST via mobile reply actions
What the hell is that...
51/39 K/BB in AAA as a 24 year old? Gross.
The only upside I see here
Is that he doesn’t let up many hits.
But an absolute ton of walks
6.0 BB/9
Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww.
For the record, compared to every pitcher who pitched for the Astros last season, that would put Cruz DEAD LAST in that category, behind F-Rod and Del Rosario.
Lame...
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 9:11 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
There's always round 2?
Trying to find the silver lining here
OH CRAP
Looks like the Angels are close to signing Pujols, or already have.
Astros move to AL West.
Pujols moves to AL West.
1st order of business for Lunhow: Re-sign Brad Lidge.
It’s fate.
St. Louis selects Kamatsu.
Was that Luhnow’s selection on his way out? Who knows.
Boston selects Marwin Gonzalez.
Talk about a letdown
All of our fine article writing and research gone for naught.
Well
At least I don’t feel obligated to write 3,000 words on the results of the Rule V draft.
I think it gives us a better understanding of what the Astros have passed on.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Dec 8, 2011 12:05 PM CST up reply actions
Off Topic
But rumor mills say that Angels could non-tender Kendrys Morales now (because he’s arb eligible).
If so, the Astros would be nuts not to jump all over that.
Nothing to be excited about there
Except the Astros get another pitcher with a fun name.
Don’t know nothing about him, but just by glancing at his stats page I like him better than Ruined.
Walks to many.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 9:23 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Further thoughts about Duarte
Looks like he’s recently been re-converted to a starter, for what that’s worth. He’s got a fairly low BB/9 for a minor league pitcher with such poor overall results, and his K numbers aren’t awful. But he gives up 11 hits per 9 innings, which might be an actual sign of the apocalypse – it’s that bad.
My uninformed guess (extrapolated from the numbers) is that he has fairly good control of the strike zone, but his pitches have no movement. HR rate isn’t too bad either. He might be a ground ball pitcher that just can’t seem to find a putout pitch.
None of this is good news, really. Just my thoughts.
He does have a nice GB rate, which can compensate somewhat for the K rate. Hard to know whether hits/inning are bad for a groundballer in the minors because you don’t know about the defense.
traded duarte to red sox for marwin gonzalez
by lawson3 on Dec 8, 2011 9:57 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
now that's interesting
Gonzalez is a 2B/SS with not-shabby offensive stats from the last couple years.
we have discussed pros and cons of Gonzalez in some other threads. I think he is an OK pick as a utility infielder. There is a variety of opinion of his defense. Goldstein at B-Pro says his ceiling is as a utility infielder rather than shortstop.
If he is traded, the major league Rule 5 restrictions will follow him. This would make the Rule 5 outcome a little more interesting for the Astros.
Yes. A .690 OPS in the PCL is way below average (.800). I put his Iowa stats into the major league equivalent calculator and his line becomes: .224, .267, .298. So he probably projects to be a worse hitter than Sanchez. The question mark is his defense, because there is a variety of opinion. Some scouting reports say that his defense is erratic, with good plays followed by messing up easy plays. According to Campbell, the Astros like his defense.
All that said, I think he is a fine Rule 5 pick, given his age. He is still young enough to improve, and if the Astros use him as a utility infielder this year, he has more future upside than Sanchez.
My quibble with drafting utility infielders and bench players in Rule 5 is that it’s basically a wasted year in terms of development. Sure he’ll get MLB experience, but is he really going to improve if he plays 40-50 games a year as a defensive replacement and gets 150 plate appearances? Because next year, we still have a guy we know nothing about, he’s back in the minors, and he’s a year older and no longer considered a good age to be a prospect.
Given the shortstop options, I’m not complaining that the Astros are giving him a tryout, but I’d much rather see a short reliever being used in his actual role, or a back-end starter, than a bench hitter who won’t improve by handing cups of Gatorade to the starters when they return to the dugout.
Rule 5 thoughts
Okay, so I know the rule 5or draft is nothing to get excited about, and the reality is that most of the time the pick gets returned, but it really seems like the Astros missed an opportunity here. There were some interesting names here that got passed on.
This has to reflect negatively on Bobby Heck right.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 9:31 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I'm not worried about Pujols going to the AL West
By the time we’re ready to contend again, that contract will be a disaster for LAA. In the meantime, maybe they’ll knock the Rangers down a few pegs.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
I was waiting for the Astros to emerge as the mystery team in that saga.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 9:34 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
He would be a good stopgap till Singleton is ready
I bet the Angels will get trade bites though. I can’t see him being non-tendered. And I wouldn’t give up prospects for him.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
He'd be more than a stopgap
One of those guys could wind up a superb DH. I read a couple rumors this morning that the Angels might non-tender him now that Pujols is in the fold. Don’t forget they also have Mark Trumbo and an overcrowded outfield.
I think it more likely they find a trade partner with a team who has a serious need for a 1B (like the Cardinals, lol), but IF they non-tender him, i want that guy on my roster. Still young, .300 hitter, 35 HR likely for several more seasons. Yes, please.
Interesting point
Berkman to 1B this season. Komatsu to play at least backup outfielder to fill the void until Allen Craig is healthy? After this season, Craig moves to 1B.
Sounds like in the face of losing Pujols, at least the Cardinals have a good plan in place. Wish I could see something like that from the ’stros.
The thing is
He’s still not recovered from his leg injury, somehow. Word is he won’t be ready for the start of the season.
Details, details
He should be ready soon after. I still want him.
Some people also question whether he can even handle 1B defensively
With the lingering effects of his leg injury
Well sure
People are going to say that, because of his injury. But beforehand, he was considered an excellent defender, so is that really a huge concern?
Who knows how much of his past quickness he has
After a leg injury that has kept him out almost 2 full seasons? Apparently the lingering issues are in his ankle, which does not bode well for his range going forward.
Wow. Awesome Rule 5 pick. Did Bobby Heck just give the org a middle finger in anticipation of his dismissal?
Funny that you mentioned that. I was thinking that maybe this was Wade’s going away present as a F-you. But yours makes sense too. I’m joking. But yes this is a real puzzler Rule 5 draft for the Astros.
I assume that some scout loved Cruz and he convinced Heck. Maybe we will be surprised—-but I doubt it.
Haha. As much as I know that doing something like that would be severely detrimental to getting another job, you just have to wonder sometimes.
Yeah, it seems like the Astros really dropped the ball here.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 9:42 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Cruz throws upper 90's
I bet you’re right. BB numbers be darned, some high-placed scout probably loves his velocity. Since the Astros currently wouldn’t know what sabermetric research was if it slapped them in the face and told them to squeal, this is probably yet another boondoggle by the antiquated outgoing regime.
Well, you can't teach velocity, etc.
When it comes down to it, I might actually prefer a high-90s bullpen arm with mediocre stats to a soft-tossing finesse guy with great numbers. I tend to lean more toward scouting when it comes to pitchers, and more toward stats when it comes to hitters (especially corner bats).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
6.0 BB/9
A walk rate that high isn’t affected by defense, and no amount of velocity can turn that into a good number.
My disappointment is there were several arms (Cabral, Stossel, etc) who had good velocity AND good stats. It’s obviously early to make a judgment call, but this looks like another whiff by the Astros.
The walk rate is pretty bad, yeah
Maybe they see something in his mechanics which makes them think they can fix his control.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
A congratulations goes out to Lance Beerkman's trainer
As it doesn’t seem like he will have to work as hard this offseason to get Berkman into outfield ready shape.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 9:45 AM CST via mobile reply actions
We got Marwin!
@alexspeier #redsox selected Gonzalez Marwin in Rule 5,but will trade him to #astros for minor lg rule 5er Marco Duarte RHP from #rockies
That saves it a bit.
That’s good news. I guess they really liked Cruz and also found a way to get Marwin. This is good news.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 10:02 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Interesting...
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 10:02 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
A thought.
Perhaps the team snagged these two relievers under the assumption that Wandy will be traded before opening day. Anuery Rodriguez would move into the empty rotation spot, and one of these two would be plugged into the pen?
Just trying to sense of to “blah” player selections when there were better players on the Rule 5 board.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 10:02 AM CST via mobile reply actions
*make sense
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 10:03 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Gotta think Gonzalez will have a strong leg up in the starting shortstop competition
Assuming no FA signing.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2011/12/5/2603093/astros-potential-rule-5-draftees#comments
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Also,
Here’s the link to the Bids dugout link. Scroll down and they went into a little detail on Marwin.
http://mobile.bucsdugout.com/2011/12/5/2572470/rule-5-draft-guide-2011
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 10:16 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
he's a fascinating guy in the Cubs system
Some folks had him in the back end of our top 20. Very toolsy, talented kid was pushed aggressively. There’s still some folks that believe his power will develop and that he might be a 10-15 HR guy. Capable of playing multiple positions, but his D has improved at short to the point where it should probably be average, with a chance to get better.
The rare upper level sleeper if there was one. He might not get better than what he is right now, but at least, the talent is there to ponder it. In terms of where he’d stand in your prospect list (not that it matters a ton), I think he’s probably top 15.
by toonsterwu on Dec 8, 2011 10:26 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah, appreciate the report.
This trade salvaged some of the rule 5 day for the Astros in my opinion.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 10:41 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
The Angels have also signed CJ Wilson, by the way
Seems like every high priced FA is going to the Marlins or the Angels.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Most expensive day in Angels history.
I think this has to make them the favorites in 2012, regardless of how the Rangers performed this season.
With Wilson and Buerhle off the board
I imagine the market for Wandy will pick up pretty quickly.
"Every time you go to that cook-off you get drunk as a poet on payday!"
Hopefully.
But the FO is going to have to back off their stance of not paying any of his salary if they expect a decent return.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 10:29 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Keep in mind Roy O is still out there and looking for a 3 year deal
I think his deal may kind of set the market for Wandy, honestly.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
So Marwin will fight for SS spot or be a utility guy?
Either way, I like the pick. He switch hits(!) and, although he doesn’t have much pop, seems like he could be a solid option at SS.
The question now is what does this mean the current infield? Does CJ come back and play 3B? Does Paredes take his place? Is this the end of Angel Sanchez or Matt Downs?
Paredes starts the season at third based on recent Brad Mills interview
CJ ’s future may depend on spring training.
I can see both Sanchez and Downs returning, but who knows at this point.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Dec 8, 2011 10:57 AM CST up reply actions
I hope Downs sticks around.
Seems like he came up with big pinch hits more often than not last season.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 8, 2011 11:03 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I can't imagine Downs getting cut/waived
He earned a lot of leeway with his play last season. I would imagine he returns as the first pinch hitter off the bench and main utility infielder. Knowing Mills he’ll probably get a lot of plate appearances as soon as Paredes or Altuve struggle.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It will be a very bad sign of things to come if they are
Stupid enough to get rid of downs. If they trade him fine but if they release him drayton, wade, and Tal will start to look really smart.
I like the fact that the Astros got Marwin Gonzalez in the rule 5 draft, but I still wish they would have took a starting pitching candidate with the first pick. Especially if Wandy and/or Brett have a good chance of getting traded.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 11:28 AM CST via mobile reply actions
can we please
Play in a div W/O fat albert. I’m sure once the stros moved to the al west it was all but a done deal. He’ll be feasting off our pitching for a few more yrs. I mean at 31, he’s no spring chicken. Or is it 35, or 37, or 40?
by HTown80 on Dec 8, 2011 11:51 AM CST via mobile reply actions
That's probably why he chose the angles
He knew his chances of catching bonds for the home run title would be better if he could continue to face the Astros.
Just when you thought you got rid of him…
SURPRISE there he is again. Just like herpes.
This station is non-operational
IT'S TEBOW TIME!
On the twitterverse
just like herpes....funny stuff
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
by ccislanders on Dec 9, 2011 12:21 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Duarte for Gonzalez was a nice little procedural maneuver for both teams....
A major league roster spot is more valuable to the Red Sox than the Astros. The Red Sox probably wanted Duarte because they can keep him in AAA and hope he develops into a major leaguer. They may have felt that he would be picked in the AAA draft before their drafting position. The AAA draft probably isn’t that important to the Astros, but they did hold the first pick, which had value for the Red Sox. Perhaps the Astros wanted Gonzalez as their second Rule 5 pick, but they didn’t know if he would last until the second round. It’s similar to trading a second round MLB Rule 5 pick for the first pick in the AAA Rule 5 draft.
I do like that swap. He seems like a good candidate to stick on the roster this year. The fact that he’s still young and has the chance to continue to develop is a plus.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 1:00 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Pshhh... What a BULLSHIT pick.
Really? This is the last of Bobby Heck I hope. Wow. First pick and you completely and totally miss on it. It’s not that hard, you have the first F$&$&$(! PICK take one of the 5 guys at the top, but no Heck HAS to be crafty and grab some 24 year old RP.
I hope Heck isnt here for this years real draft.
And watch Meyers or Flaherty end up being pretty damn good.
by YohannDookeyblue on Dec 8, 2011 1:19 PM CST reply actions
I guess we will have to give it time to see how it works out, but it certainly seems like a missed opportunity right now.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 1:31 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
The Yankees sent cash to the Royals for Cabral, whom the Royals drafted in the Rule 5. River City Blues reports that the Yankees wanted Cabral so much that they tried to make a trade with the Astros to get him with the first pick.
Knowing the outcome now I wish the Astros could have worked out a trade with the Yankees.
by conroestro on Dec 8, 2011 1:33 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I liked Luhnow's presser.
He seems to be a no-nonsense kind of guy.
"In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in a mask of failure"
In another thread, I said that a Rule 5 pick is kind of like a lottery ticket. There have been several notable cases of “wild as hell” hard throwing relievers who were drafted in the Rule 5 and became closers. Of course, most are sent back to the original team. But as far as lottery tickets go, Cruz gives the Astros a long shot chance of becoming one of those noteable cases.
High ceiling, low floor guy
I don’t think the Mets were going to offer him a spring training invite if they didn’t think he had some serious potential.
That said, Cruz’s command will be the big issue here. If he can stick around the whole year and work on his command a bit, the Astros could have a potential setup/closer guy on their hands. I can’t fault Heck and Co. for trying to swing for the fences on this pick.
what you call swinging for the fences
i call bunting for a base hit.
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