No Melancon, No Problem. Closer Candidates
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 2:06 AM CST
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Positives
• Solid groundball tendencies – Since making his debut Wilton’s groundball percentage has never been below 55%. Even in the minors he never posted a groundball percentage lower than 50%.
• Limits Walks – His BB/9 rate this past season was 2.28. In 2010 he posted a ridiculous BB/9 rate of 0.67.
• Durable – Lopez made 68 appearances in 2010, and 71 appearances in 2011. He pitched 129.2 innings splitting time as a starter and reliever in 2009, and also appeared in another 58 games in AAA in 2008.
Negatives
• Not the overpowering type – His fastball averaged 91.7 MPH last season, and he averaged 7.1 K/9 innings as a reliever last season.
• Hittable – 9.1 H/9 last season, 8.9 H/9 in 2010. Melancon allowed a full hit less (7.9) last season. In his four seasons in the minors Melancon averaged 7.6 H/9 innings while Lopez posted a 10.8 H/9 rate spanning his five seasons in the minors.
• Lefties = trouble – Lopez averaged a 5.1 K/9 against lefties versus an 8.12 K/9 against righties. Left handed hitters also hit .327 against him where righties hit .266. In 2010 his K/9 rate against lefties was 3.81 versus an 8.56 against righties. His batting average against splits in 2010 were not as bad, with a .282 against lefties and a .240 against righties.
• Inherited runners = big trouble last season – Of the 34 runners he inherited last season, 16 of them scored. To put this in perspective, in 2010 of the 33 runners he inherited only 1 of them scored.
Positives
• Solid strikeout numbers – Carpenter possesses a mid-nineties fastball that he uses often and effectively. Throughout his four seasons in the minors David Carpenter averaged a K/9 rate of 9.7. Through his 34 appearances and his 27.2 innings with the Astros last season his K/9 remained a strong at 9.43.
• Has closer experience in the minors – Carpenter has recorded a total of 49 saves in the minors. Last year he recorded 14 between the AA and AAA levels.
• Control shows signs of improving – In 2008 he averaged 4.3 BB/9, and in 2009 his walk rate increased slightly to 4.8. He seemed to right the ship in 2010 and lowered that rate to 2.8. In 2011 he posted a BB/9 rate of 1.9 in AA, and 2.8 in AAA. This rate increased to 4.23 with the Astros, but it’s not that surprising to see pitchers struggle in this area while facing the more disciplined hitters for the first time.
Negatives
• Hittable – Carpenter allowed 9.1 H/9 with the Astros last season. In his four seasons in the minors that rate was better at 8.1, and he allowed 7.1 at the AAA level last season before being called up.
• Inherited runners = trouble – 8 of the 19 runners he inherited scored this past season. Digging deeper, in Corpus 2 of the 4 runners he inherited scored, and 9 of the 16 runners he inherited scored at Oklahoma City. In total 19 out of the 35 runners Carpenter inherited scored during his 2011 campaign.
• Secondary offering inconsistent – Carpenter works exclusively off of his fastball-slider combination, but his slider is still developing.
Positives
• Possesses a four-pitch repertoire – Rodriguez features a fastball, curveball, cutter, and changeup, whereas many relievers only feature two pitches. This could be an added benefit of him starting 128 games in the minors. He does however use his fastball and curveball the majority of the time.
• Solid 2011 campaign – In his 47 appearances and 52.1 innings pitched Rodriguez posted a K/9 rate of 9.8, and an ERA of 3.96. This could be a sign that he has put it all together, or could just be another example of the volatile nature of relievers.
• Curveball is a plus pitch – Rodriguez used his curveball 27.6% last season, and relied on it as his out pitch.
Negatives
• Lacks a solid track record – Rodriguez spent the last 6 seasons between AA and AAA, and owns a 4.52 ERA during that time in AA, and a 5.63 ERA in AAA. There is the possibility that his 2011 season was the outlier.
• Hittable – Through 9 seasons in the minors Rodriguez has allowed 9.9 H/9 innings. Last year for the Astros he allowed 8.8.
• Lacks previous closer experience – In his nine seasons in the minors he has only recorded a total of 7 saves.
Positives
• Fits the typical closer profile – Abreu has an electric fastball that sits in the mid to upper nineties, and a decent curveball. His career K/9 rate of 10.8 in the minors is evidence of this. Of the candidates on this list you could make a strong case that he possesses the best "stuff".
• Has experience closing games in the minors – He has saved a total of 41 games in his six minor league seasons.
• Changeup has potential – He doesn’t use it much, but his changeup flashes plus potential, and could be a solid weapon for him against left-handed hitters if he can improve his consistency with the pitch.
Negatives
• Control is an issue – This is somewhat of an understatement as he has a career BB/9 rate of 5.4 in the minors. His BB/9 rate with the Astros last season was 4.05 in a very small sample size. This is the biggest flaw in his game, and could be what holds him back from reaching his potential.
• Very limited time in the majors - It's highly unlikely that Abreu would break camp as closer given the fact that he has less than ten innings in the majors.
Positives
• Most experienced option – Experience is important and Lyon has more of it than all of the other candidates listed combined.
• Closed 20 games for the Astros in 2010 – He has shown that he can be an effective closer in Houston when healthy in the past.
Negatives
• Coming back from an injury that sidelined him the majority of last season – It is unknown how effective Lyon will be after missing the majority of last season.
• Not your typical closer – There’s nothing overpowering about Brandon Lyon. His career 5.82 K/9 rate will attest to that.
• Awful in 2011 – To be fair to Lyon his injury could have had a lot to do with his poor performance. Still, with new ownership fully committed to the rebuilding process I would guess that the leash on Brandon Lyon is shorter than ever.
Positives
• Good velocity – Reports on Rhiner are that he possesses a mid-nineties fastball which can’t be taught.
• Solid strikeout numbers – Over seven seasons in the minors he has averaged an 8.5 K/9 rate.
• Solid ERA – Rhiner’s Career ERA in the minors is 3.44.
• Has closed games in the past – He has closed a total of 43 games in the minors.
Negatives
• Control has been an issue – Like the other higher velocity guys on this list Rhiner could benefit from improved control. He has averaged a 5.5 BB/9 in his seven seasons in the minors.
• 2011 was okay, but nothing special - In 59.1 innings in AA Rhiner posted a 4.40 ERA, 7.74 K/9, and a 5.92 BB/9.
• Zero time in the majors - Like Juan Abreu, Rhiner Cruz is unlikely to break camp as the closer as he has no experience in the majors. Expect the rule 5 pick to be used in low leverage situations until(if) he gets acclimated to the majors.
Each of these candidates could potentially see some time in the closer's role at some point next season depending on their performance.
Wilton Lopez seems like a likely candidate to break spring training as the closer, but his shiny 2.79 ERA last season does not tell the whole story. According to Fangraphs Shutdowns and Meltdowns statistics he was slightly above league average with 18 shutdowns, but was also well below league average with 17 meltdowns. David Carpenter had a good rookie season, but also struggled at times which could mean that he may need a little more time getting acclimated to the majors before he is handed the closing responsibilities.Experience can't be discounted, and if Brandon Lyon returns healthy then he could be reunited with his old post. Fernando Rodriguez would seem like a better fit as a setup man rather than the closer. Juan Abreu has the stuff but needs to improve his control. It seems unlikely that he would begin the season as closer, but he could be a good candidate to take over the role at some point next season with a solid performance. Last but not least is the rule 5 pick Rhiner Cruz, but being that he has never pitched in the majors before it seems likely that he would be used in low leverage situations a la Aneury Rodriguez last season.
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nice work
Brandon Lyons was brought here to save games so I see him starting the seasons in the role. Which I think is good for his trade value if he succeeds there.
by lawson3 on Dec 22, 2011 2:42 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I agree
Let Lyons close so he can build trade value hopefully, then flip him at deadline to someone desperate. If he doesn’t pan out then give one of the youngsters a chance.
If the new rule on Type A/B relievers
If Lyons is at all successful during the 1st half you are going to have to trade him. He will not cost enough in the FA market to get any compensation back after the season.
by Neil Leininger on Dec 22, 2011 4:57 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, the new CBA rules eliminate alot of the “getting easy draft compensation” for type b guys. Even if Lyon qualified his best deal would be to accept arbitration from the Astros.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 5:33 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
There is no FA arbitration anymore. The Astros would have to offer a contract equal to the average salary of the top 125 players. Reportedly that would be around $11 million. If he turns it down and signs a free agent contract elsewhere, then the Astros get the 1st round pick from the signing team.
Thanks for correcting me. I knew that. I knew that the contract the club had to offer was an average of the top players, but I didn’t realize that existed for all positions, I.e. relievers.
That will pretty much eliminate draft compensation for relief pitchers.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 7:01 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Wilton Lopez appeared to have lost some of the movement on his sinker when he came back from arm troubles last year. He was less consistent keeping the ball down in the zone. If that is a mechanical issue which can be corrected, I like Lopez in the closer role. Lopez was filthy in 2010 with a tremendous combination of movement and command of his sinker.
I would rate Carpenter is the second most likely candidate. He was put into some high leverage situations last year and responded well. He has a good fastball with movement, and he seemed to have a closer’s makeup.
I would like for Abreu to develop into the closer, but he would really have to improve his control.
Lyon is too hard to predict, given his injury. In order to be more than a middle reliever, he will need to come back from his injury with a higher velocity (he was down to 88 mph during his injury spell) and return with the cutter that he used so effectively in 2009 and 10. Lyon has impeccable command when he is right. In returning from arm surgery, sometimes it is difficult to get the command back for awhile.
Lopez’s arm trouble last year was arm fatigue right.
When Lyon was on the previous year it seemed like he was in the 90-92 range, and I didn’t realize his velocity was down to 88 last year.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 12:29 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Wilton Lopez went on the DL in mid-April 2011 with irritation of the ulnar nerve. Lopez reported that the elbow soreness was different than the soreness he had at the end of 2010 related to fatigue. The medical staff intiially diagnosed Lopez with neuritis and advised him to pitch through it. He continued to have pain, and Mills sent him to the doctor because his pitching had changed as a result of the injury:
Manager Brad Mills said the team noticed that it has been taking him longer to warm up than it did when he played his way into an eighth inning role and that his ball doesn’t have the same movement.
I imagine Houston will start off with a closer-by-committee, with Lopez and Lyon getting the majority of the opportunities. Further down the road, hopefully Carpenter, Abreu, or Cruz can lock down the role full-time.
David Carpenter and Juan Abreu are the most likely fits for this spot in the future. Hopefully one of them can develop into a successful closer for the Astros in the future.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 10:47 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Closer by committee
I like this idea. Use your best pitcher in the highest leverage situations, play Matchups, ride the hot-hand etc.. No need to lock yourself down to one guy, but try to maximize the potential for several pitchers success in that role.
This is assuming (hopefully) that the Astros bullpen will be in position to save some games.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 7:07 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Really nice write-up.
Good thing about some of these guys, nobody will be on base when they come in the 9th, unless it’s in the 8th.
Anyways, I have no idea who should close, hopefully Wilton L. is on his game consistently, he’s the only one I’d like.
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
by ccislanders on Dec 22, 2011 10:40 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Lefty-Righty platoon?
I have always liked the idea of using a lefty and righty as co-closers. The choice of closer would depend on the part of the lineup that is up and whether there is a tough lefty. You can see that Wilton Lopez would benefit if he didn’t have to face several LHBs in the 9th inning. The Astros don’t have overwhelming lefties in the pen. But Escalona might be someone to try as a co-closer.
That would be a good idea. Lopez has more success against righties than lefties, and right now he seems like the favorite for the closers role. Escalona had a good year last year.
If they went with that strategy they would probably need to carry to lefties in the pen. Wesley Wright could be another candidate for that. He was good against lefties in OKC last year, and looked good with the Astros towards the end of the season.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 11:48 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Bullpen needs a bit more depth, especially minus Melancon.
I’m not overly concerned about who closes. The bigger issue is that outside of Wilton Lopez there is not a single pitcher in the projected bullpen who can be counted on to pitch effectively in 2012. Lyon’s double whammy of a partially torn rotator cuff and an unusual biceps injury (two potentially unfixable maladies) makes me question whether he’ll pitch in 2012 much less perform up to his pre-2011 standards. Just to speak to the lack of quality depth in the bullpen, don’t view your list of potential closers as strictly that – it’s also a listing of every righthanded relief candidate for the 2012 bullpen not named Enerio, excluding perhaps a longman or swingman. Do you really want to go to battle with that bullpen (watch that crowd finish 150+ games)? Minus a few well thought out relief depth acquisitions by Luhnow, things could get really ugly really fast in 2012.
I would expect a few cheap or NRI type relief pick ups for the bullpen. Spring training provides an opportunity to sort through them. I think a few “rebound” type candidates will be available as spring training gets closer.
Hopefully so.
We should see one or two signings of older minor league journeymen like Fernando Rodriguez and Juan Abreu (albeit w/o Abreu’s velocity). An affordable ($1M to $2M for 1 year, possibly with incentives) veteran MLB free agent arm along the lines of Juan Cruz , Todd Coffey (perhaps Coffey and Lopez could inspire the entire 2012 relief corps to sprint from the bullpen to the mound?), Michael Wuertz, etc. would also make for a nice addition. Adding quantity to the bullpen mix can help offset the lack of certainty surrounding quality.
I also wonder if Luhnow will use his knowledge of the Cardinals’ system to pick up a relief pitcher off waivers or if one becomes avaialable as a free agent. I don’t have any suggestions at the moment. But I know that the Cardinals stashed relief pitching options all over the place, because LaRussa was a fiend about running through relievers.
I began sorting through free agent relief pitchers to find relievers with ML experience who could be signed on minor league contracts or split contracts and provide a good chance for rebound (and perhaps mid-season trade bait). I didn’t come up with a lot of good ideas. But No. 1 on my list was Hidecki Okajima, who spent most of last year in the Red Sox minor league system. He had good stats in AAA in 2011, and, of course, as a former set up reliever for the Red Sox, he could be quite valuable if he rebounds. I think a rebound would be more likely in the NL, where hitters are unfamiliar with his deception.
Unfortunately, before I could write an article or fan post, the Yankees had similar ideas, and signed Okajima to a minor league contract.
I saw that today and thought that was a pretty good pickup by them.
Okajima had a solid year in the Red Sox system last year.
by conroestro on Dec 28, 2011 3:17 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
They have a little depth in AAA. I think that Mickey Storey was a good pickup last year. Jose Valdez has good stuff as well. There is also Jason Stoffel and Josh Arid in AA last year that while they didn’t have that good of seasons they are fairly well regarded relief prospects.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 12:18 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I know that Fernando Abad was a disaster at the ML level last year. I think there could be some factors, like over work in winter league as a starter as well as being pushed too fast into high leverage situations. But if you look at his K rate and FIP at Oklahoma City, it’s quite good. I wouldn’t give up on him; the Astros could always use a LHP with stuff.
I also see that Chris Sampson had a good year as a starter for the Marlins in AAA. I wonder if he could be picked up as a relief pitching option?
If you look at Abad’s splits in his ML career, he would a good reliever if you could confine him to LHBs. Most of the damage against him came from HR power off of RHBs. For some reason, Abad was not used like a typical LOOGY. I think the Astros had overly optimistic views of him as a future set up reliever and that led them to use him like a normal reliever. In addition, it’s obvious that Abad needs to look for ways to get RHBs out….whether it’s finding a new pitch or creating more deception.
I forgot about ABad also. I was hopeful he could be turned into a starter but that didn’t workout.
He could be a solid loogy option.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 2:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I suppose you could throw Henry Villar and Alberto Arias (he of the 0 IP since Aug 2009) into the mix too. There’s also a chance that Sammy Gervacio could be re-signed.
yes. I was thinking of Arias; I just didn’t want to mention it for fear of wishful thinking. If you believe ZIPS, Gervacio is still projected to be one of the better relievers in the pool of Astros’ bullpen arms.
Those are very good mentions as well. I completely forgot about Sammy Gervacio and Alberto Arias.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 2:25 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Slingin' Sammy
I’d be fine with him since he has a cool name.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Lopez and Lyons
I hope that both of these guys start off the season healthy and stay consistant. I think they could be some great trade bait to net some prospects or at least Wilton should. I am not really worried about closer right now we have alot of young guys with plus arms and I am sure a couple of them will step it up this year.
relief and closer
interesting article… i would give some of these prospects major league experience a inning 7,8…. keep lyons at 9 for a while… i think lyons is really a set up guy…might work some of this out in spring… pitching in 7th and 8th is same thing…just tell them to imagine it is the 9th…get these guys in a lot in spring for one or two inning stints…we are on track…geez, we have lots of pitching… i am glad we are not jumping for high priced free agents… i think astro mgt is doing a great job and are building what (is) will be a very good team.. only advice is to keep it up, stay young….we may be ready now to put it together…i am ok with or without wandy and or myers…carlos lee…??? ok to move him if it saves a bunch of $$$…and we should get a prospect….magnus
Gio Gonzalez traded....
Keith Law reports that a deal has been struck: Gonzalez to the Nationals for four prospects: A.J. Cole, Brad Peacock, Derek Norris, and Tom Milone.
That’s a pretty good prospect haul, I suppose.
I think it’s a fair trade. One less suitor for Wandy/Myers, one less pitcher on the market.
MLBTR tagged the Red Sox, Rangers, Marlins, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers, and Mariners as teams that were interested in Gio. I could see any of those teams except Seattle making a run at Wandy. Colorado may be interested as well.
I would imagine we’ll see Oswalt and Kuroda sign pretty quickly now. I would guess that since they’re keeping Danks, Chicago is keeping Floyd as well, so unless the Cubs go into re-build mode, Wandy may be the best pitcher available on the trade front. After Oswalt and Kuroda, free agents Saunders, Jackson, and Maholm are in Wandy’s league, so they may further lower interest in him. With all these factors I find it unlikely that Wandy or Myers is moved unless Crane is adamant about reducing payroll at all costs (no pun intended).
There are just too many players out there who can do what Carlos Lee does, so I dont’ see any way at all he gets moved.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 22, 2011 3:59 PM CST up reply actions
Predictions for Free Agents and possible Houston trades:
Oswalt to Boston.
Kuroda to Toronto.
Saunders to Texas.
Jackson to Florida.
Maholm to Seattle.
Brett Myers and $5M to Detroit for Eugenio Suarez and Brandon Loy
Wandy Rodriguez and $7M to Colorado for Alex White or Drew Pomeranz, Chris Nelson, and Dan Mayora
Carlos Lee and $9M to Cleveland for Tony Wolters
by Snake Diggity on Dec 22, 2011 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
That is a pretty decent trade for the A’s. They stacked up on a couple of decent prospects this offseason. With Danks extended and Gio traded maybe some of the free agents may start dropping.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 5:00 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think the Rangers are probably set in there rotation, especially if they can come to an agreement with Darvish. There rotation already has Holland, Harrison, Ogando, and Neftali Feliz. Yu Darvish would fit in nicely with that bunch.
Also, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rockies are set with there rotation after there trade with the Angels.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 5:06 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I hadn’t heard that. He would be a good pickup.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 5:34 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
The trade market has definitely been more enticing than the free agent market as far as starting pitching is concerned.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 5:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
The A's and the Pads are setting the market quite high for us
Yet at the same time, we have to worry about the A’s getting good down the road after getting such a fine haul.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Also, saw a rumor that Q’s contract is not guaranteed and Luhnow may be looking for an upgrade there.
If Chris Snyder is full recovered
he should be the guy.
by Neil Leininger on Dec 22, 2011 4:59 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I’m skeptical of that rumor, because it came from Heyman, who is a mouth piece for Boras. Heyman stated the rumor as part of his suggestion that Ivan Rodriguez would be the best fit in Houston. Pudge is represented by Boras.
I hope that’s not the case. Purge wouldn’t provide a whole lot more than Q offensively, and Q is solid defensively. Plus Tatum is a decent third option. Not much bat, but he also seems to be solid defensively.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 5:37 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Heyman “speculates” pudge would be a good fit for the Astros.
I see what you mean.
by conroestro on Dec 22, 2011 6:11 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Agreed
I put very little stock in what Heyman says, especially when the rumor doesn’t make sense, as is the case here. We’ve already had our Pudge go-round a couple seasons ago, and honestly, Q is probably the better player at this point, both offensively and defensively. Plus, Castro is going to demand a lot of ABs, and I see Q as being easier to stick in a backup role than Pudge, who is probably looking for quantity over money to fill out his HoF resume and get to that 3,000 hits mark.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Q Rumor
I agree Heyman is probably on Boras’ payroll. I’d take Q and a million over pudge any day! Q is far superior defensively to Pudge and cheaper.
I wouldn’t say Q is superior defensively to Pudge, but the difference in defensive ability and even offensive production just doesn’t merit a need to trade Quintero for anything to sign Pudge to whatever amount of money Boras demands. That’s just silly. Who in their right mind other than those megalomaniacs Boras & Heyman would think Pudge would be a better fit for Houston? Take your fat salary elsewhere.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
Closer role will probably be in flux throughout the year.
I expect they will start with Lyon because he’s paid to be a closer. BUT; as the year progresses I believe they will give Carpenter more opportunities. They would be crazy to not at least try to move Lyon. He’s one of the last few “Wade generated millstones” around the Astros necks.
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