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A Team With No Core? Thinking about the Astros (plus a Snapdragon Giveaway)

For eleven days beginning on December 18, Qualcomm Stadium, football home of the San Diego Chargers and San Diego State Aztecs, will carry a temporary new moniker: Snapdragon Stadium. Snapdragon processors by Qualcomm are the digital brains inside mobile devices made by top manufacturers like Samsung, LG, Nokia, and HTC. Snapdragon Stadium will host the Chargers-Ravens game on December 18, the Poinsettia Bowl on December 21, and the Holiday Bowl on December 28.

Here's a tricky question. Do the Houston Astros have a core player right now? I'm not talking about a franchise guy, because we just traded the only two worthy of that moniker last summer.

No, I'm talking about good, old fashioned guys who will be the guts of a championship team. Not just the Jeff Bagwells or the Craig Biggios, but the Ausmuses, the Billy Wagners, the base you build around.

Houston is rebuilding, which means they don't have a core they can win with right now. That's not news to anyone. But, is there a core group (or even one guy) who can be identified as crucial to future success? Is that even a good definition for what the core of this team should look like?

Star-divide

To me, there are two options, but both have question marks. The first guy I thought of with this is Bud Norris. He's younger than the other top pitchers on this staff. He's got swing-and-miss stuff and has shown he can lock a team down when hes' on top of his game.

He's still growing, but overall, Norris is exactly what the core of this team should look like. Plus, a pitcher like Norris can be a core guy for a rebuilding team like Houston, because he has a greater possibility of being an impact player when he's 31 or 32 than some position players.

There's a lot of luck involved in that, and staying healthy is a big key. Norris has shown injury problems in the past and has maxed out that injury monitor the past few seasons. So, take his inclusion here with a grain of condition. He has to stay healthy, but if he does, he can absolutely win postseason games for Houston in four years.

The other guy who could have been a core player is Jason Castro. if he turns into an offensive catcher with good defense, he'll be a cornerstone of this team. Heck, if he turns into a great defensive catcher, he can still be a big part of division winners.

But, injuries have derailed those thoughts for now. We haven't seen Castro play in the majors since 2010 and won't until late April or early May because of foot surgery he just had. It's bad compounded on worse for the young Stanford product.

I hesitate to list him as a core guy because we haven't seen him fulfill any of his potential in the majors. If we even had a glimmer of that, it'd be easier to say he can be a core guy. But, until we see production, he's a big question mark and Houston might need to look down the line for catching talent.

Now, Norris being on this list intrigues me precisely for the reasons discussed on here last week. Norris could very easily fetch a high price on the trade market. Should the Astros consider trading a player who could be a solid rotation pitcher?

Yes.

Look at what the Padres did with Mat Latos. A young, cost-controlled guy is very useful on the open market. He can net a lot of assets. Norris does not have the profile or results of Latos, but he does have the strikeouts. If he puts up an All-Star start to 2012, there will definitely be teams sniffing around. If Houston can get two impact players and a starting pitcher like San Diego did, they have to think about trading him.

My question to you then becomes, can Norris be a core player if he's worth more in trade than to the team? When does he cross that line? Do the Astros really have a core player in this torn-down scrap of a team? As you've seen with the branding on this post, answer below and you can win a nifty phone, then download the SB Nation app and comment about how cool you are. Wouldn't that be fun?

Want a chance to win an HTC Rezound powered by Qualcomm's revolutionary Snapdragon multiprocessor? Just leave a comment on this post with who you think the team's core player is and why he's so important to their success. Vox Media will select one winner from among the participating SB Nation blogs. All entries subject to the official rules found here .

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If Chris Johnson were just a couple of years younger,

I might say him. I think he’s going to win the starting job in 2012 and have a bounce back season. If the Astros are willing to give him another chance, I think he can be a solid player for the next few years.

"In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in a mask of failure"

by hunterpencefan on Dec 20, 2011 6:36 AM CST reply actions  

I'd hope...

I hate his game so much, he’s terrible, he’s in the majors cause he can hit a fastball.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 20, 2011 9:46 PM CST up reply actions  

He's in the majors because he plays for the Astros

Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford

by BustaPozee on Dec 20, 2011 11:33 PM CST up reply actions  

Yeah, CJ got really exposed last year

His defense and pitch recognition just aren’t up to par. There was hope he had or would improve when he was younger, but at this point he’s a finished product, and the finished product is a replacement-level player at best.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Dec 21, 2011 1:38 AM CST up reply actions  

I dont think Chris Johnson could be called a core player at OKC so how do you get that at the ML level???? His defense is horrible and his offense is barely avg

by Nado2036 on Dec 21, 2011 12:54 PM CST up reply actions  

CJ's done.

I think Paredes is going to have a good 2012 season.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Dec 23, 2011 3:34 PM CST up reply actions  

Good post

You beat me to it. I’ve been wondering when a team should start to hang on to players and extend them instead of trade them. Do wait until you have one or two that you see as stars? Do you lock up a few solid guys through the period that you think you will be competitive and only deal them if it doesn’t become reality for less than you would have gotten for them? I suppose it all depends on your upper minors, but at some point you do have to start hanging onto players or you become the pirates if not so long ago.

Oh and I hate that clunky app. I’d rather not download it again and not be allowed to see and do everything that I want to.

by ntn on Dec 20, 2011 7:48 AM CST reply actions  

Some potential

Among the grab-bag of prospects of Paredes, Lyles, Altuve, and Martinez, one or two of these players will show their ability to be part of a core.

by Killer Bee on Dec 20, 2011 8:43 AM CST reply actions  

If it's anybody on this roster, I think it's Altuve

But realistically, the best bets in the organization to be “core players” haven’t hit AA ball yet. Singleton and Springer both have that kind of potential, but it remains to be seen if they can reach it.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Dec 20, 2011 9:09 AM CST reply actions  

I think Telvin Nash could also be a core player, whether as a 1B or a DH.

Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford

by BustaPozee on Dec 20, 2011 9:16 AM CST up reply actions  

Meh

There are a fair number of guys in the system with as much or more upside than Nash, and like the rest of them, he has a slim chance of reaching his maximum ceiling. Springer and Singleton at least have decent odds in their favor.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Dec 20, 2011 9:55 AM CST up reply actions  

Agreed on Altuve.

It seems like some of the prospect gurus and talent evaluators soured on him after his debut, but I still have high hopes for him.

The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.

by Stupendous Man on Dec 20, 2011 11:19 AM CST via mobile up reply actions  

dude's 22 in May

On your question David, this is what is really worrying going forward over the next 3-4 years. Some kids might surprise us big-time, Martinez, Altuve etc, but our major league core is just so lousy.

I’m not as high as Grandal and Alonso as others, but I still think San Diego won that trade by a country mile, as did the A’s in the Cahill deal. If there was a slam dunk deal out there for Wandy I have the feeling it may be too late to get what we want for our leftie. But what the heck do you do? (if there is a right answer to this question?) Keep him till July again?

by AstroB on Dec 20, 2011 12:45 PM CST up reply actions  

Identifying a core player depends on one’s definition. For example, the article mentions Ausmus, and I agree that he is highly identified with the Astros’ franchise. However, he is an odd case, in the sense that he was acquired by trade, traded away, and then reacquired by trade. That’s not a pattern you associate with a core player. Was Adam Everett a core player? Eric Bruntlett? If core player is based on “cornerstones” like Bagwell and Biggio, then it’s much harder to project those kind of players from the current system.

Right now, I think we have to wait and see who might develop into a core player….because we can’t tell yet.

by clack on Dec 20, 2011 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

I think defining what a “core player” is was a big problem when I tried to think of which guys fit the profile. Ausmus was an odd case, not just for the trades, but for the lack of offense and how he influenced those teams. For instance, I’d say he was not a core player during the 97-01 run of playoff teams, but he was definitely one of the core players in 04-05 for what he did for that pitching staff and behind the plate.

I think a core player can go deeper than the franchise cornerstones, but you have to draw a line. Ken Caminiti? Core. Luis Gonzalez? Probably not core with the Astros, but core with the Diamondbacks.

It’s a tough question and one I’m still not really comfortable with.

I’m a simple man. I like pretty, dark-haired women and breakfast foods.
--Ron F'ing Swanson

by David Coleman on Dec 20, 2011 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

….that’s not to mention Finley and Harnisch who came in the Glen Davis trade. They could have been considered just as likely to become core players as Biggio and Bagwell in those early 90’s teams. Like Caminiti and Gonzalez, perhaps Finley became a core player for another team. Harnisch could be a dominating pitcher but never put it all together and became a journey man pitcher. Jim Deshais said in one broadcast that Bud Norris’ build and pitching style reminds him of Harnisch.

by clack on Dec 23, 2011 1:11 PM CST up reply actions  

No, I would not consider Bruntlett and Everett core players. They were replaceable.

by jmike on Dec 20, 2011 8:03 PM CST up reply actions  

ideally, it would be a young SP, C, SS, or CF

So, I guess Norris is a decent choice. My guess is that he will be traded at some point though.

I’d look to a 2B or 3B next. Altuve is probably a safer bet (than Norris) to be around long term, and position players seem to be more predictable year in and year out.

Truth be told though, “none of the above” is probably the best answer.

by pacbellpilgrim on Dec 20, 2011 9:36 AM CST reply actions  

Norris is the only player worthy of being a core player on a contending team for a prolonged period of time.

That said, there are many players with the potential to end up as everyday, important guys on a consistently winning team.

Castro- a former top 100 prospect who profiles as a plus defender and average hitter.
Wallace- a former top 100 prospect who profiles as an average defender and plus hitter, although at this point it’s doubtful that he becomes a middle of hte order hitter.
Altuve- profiles as a plus defender and plus hitter; like Orem said above, he may have the best odds out of anyone on the roster.
Lowrie- if he can provide average defense at SS and stay healthy, he can be a guy who you build around.
Paredes- with improved defense and power, his ceiling is very high.
Bogusevic, Martinez, Schafer, and Lyles all have potential to be valuable pieces.

Many of the farmhands have potential; Cosart, Springer, Santana, Villar, and Singleton all have potential to be franchise cornerstones, but all are still over a year away. Many, many other prospects have a chance to be very good everyday players.

So in terms of down the road, there’s a long list, but in terms of players you would be willing to form a core with right now, Norris is the only one worth talking about.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 20, 2011 10:47 AM CST reply actions  

I had a dream that Wandy was traded to the Cubs .

Return? Only a salary dump….

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 20, 2011 12:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

In my nightmare, when I first read it I was vsery excited at 1st....

….then it said in return the Astros got nothing, the new gm has been stressing saving money, so he decided on a salary dump.

The End.
That’s all I remember.

I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!

by ccislanders on Dec 20, 2011 1:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Have a hard time seeing Wandy as our core player,

especially since he’ll likely be traded during the season, if not before it.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Dec 23, 2011 10:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Probably because of this:

“Disclaimer – I did not attend any minor league games this year, nor do I claim to have any scouting experience. These lists are the product of my own research of statistics and online scouting reports.”

by seanbergmanrules on Dec 20, 2011 5:53 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, it may discount the list compared to someone who has actually seen the players 1st hand, but I doubt many listmakers have seen every viable prospect 1st hand. If his analysis of statistics and compilation of online reports is thorough enough, the list has value.

I’d be interested in seeing a comparison of different prospect rankings’ accuracy over the years. I use BA as my go-to, but there’s really no basis for that. There may be some dude out there who is on the money every time that nobody knows about.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 20, 2011 6:09 PM CST up reply actions  

What I am saying is this

I can come up with a better list of 15 players from each organization with my knowledge of prospects. But I am no expert. Either.

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 20, 2011 8:19 PM CST up reply actions  

It is better to look at that site

Than to just look at stats of players from an unknown organization with no other information about those players. It isn’t totally useless if there were no other sites to look at. But if they say so-and-so is #5 in a particular system and everyone else thinks that prospect is no better than #20, their high rating of him shouldn’t give you any reason to get excited or anything close to excited. It should be looked at as a mistake. So when they rank us #15, that also means very very little. If everyone else ranks us around the same spot, then fine, but their ranking will be superfluous. If everyone else has us in the bottom 5, then the #15 is an outlier. Now, you might agree with them, which is fine. But I’d listen to YOUR ranking of the Astros @ #15 before I listened to top prospect alert’s ranking of the Astros @ #15.

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 20, 2011 8:23 PM CST up reply actions  

I saw that ranking and I was interested until I read that disclaimer after hitting “About Us” on the web site. In short, the author of the rankings hasn’t given us any reason to believe that he is any different than the scores of commenters at Sickels’ web site who periodically post their own personal prospect rankings.

by clack on Dec 23, 2011 1:22 PM CST up reply actions  

Right

That isn’t to say his ranking are wrong or terrible. Only that they shouldn’t be seen as professional grade rankings. They are even a notch below other amateur rankings that have large write ups on each player.

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 23, 2011 5:34 PM CST up reply actions  

I can see ranking him as high as 7th

Depending on how you feel about his hit tool moving forward.

But yeah, 4th is a stretch, to say the least.

http://www.crawfishboxes.com

by OremLK on Dec 23, 2011 3:38 PM CST up reply actions  

I can see 4th honestly.

He’s better than Domingo Santana, and quite a few people have Santana 4th. I guess Jonathan Villar is probably the consensus 4th, and probably for good reason, but it isn’t like Villar is a great prospect or anything either. I’d say Villar has the best case for 4th, but then guys like Clemens or Oberholtzer (or Santana or Folty) just aren’t clearly better than DeShields.

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 23, 2011 5:38 PM CST up reply actions  

Better than Santana?

I don’t think so.

Santana has the high ceiling that DeShields also has, but the difference is Santana actually put up some good numbers last year, strikeouts aside.

Villar, Santana, Clemens, and probably Oberholtzer deserve to be higher than DeShields, at this point.

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Dec 23, 2011 10:58 PM CST up reply actions  

When I think of core players

I think its a good mixture of a players overall upside and his chance of meeting that upside and staying there for a long time. You want a good player that is consistantly good and not an up and down player.

When I think of players consistantly good that should be good for a long time, I think Altuve and Martinez. JD came to mind first and I find myself being a little more confident in him than Altuve because he seems to have a much more polished approach. Altuve is still a bit of a question mark do to his swing first, ask questions later approach. They both seem to have the capability to be consistant .300 hitters with average defensive play for years to come.

Now, we’ve all been told that Martinez has bad knees, but I haven’t seen anything that shows me its affecting his game. Until I see him limping around in the outfield or taking delicate swings at the plate, I’m going to expect to see him play, and play well, for years to come.

by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 20, 2011 4:11 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Edit:

They both seem to have the capability to be consistant .300+ hitters…

by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 20, 2011 4:15 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm a little confused

If the Questions is: “Do they have a core player right now?” I would have to go with Bourgeois and Downs based on a definition of leadership for the team and will to win. These are two guys who started the season last year as bench players and played their guts out when they were given there opportunities. If Downs plays the full season at 2B, he would lead to team in most of the offensive categories. Given the same number of plate appearances as Carlos Lee (585) Downs State Line would look like this:

R H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG.
85 161 53 0 29 121 .276

Againist Lee State Line of:

R H 2B 3B HR RBI AVG.
66 161 38 4 18 94 .275

I know this is not realistic, but it is interesting. (info taken from BaseballReference.com)

If you are looking to a winner four years down the line, I think that J. B. Shuck would be my best bet. Altuve and Martinez are great players (they have shown as much in the small sample of games so far). I think that Shuck is the best of both of these players. Great speed and defence. I believe he can develop into a .290+ hitter with power to all fields. In spring training, Shuck was the last of the rookies be sent back. Just sayin’.

As for Bud Norris, I agree with the arguement to a certian extent. Right now Bud Norris is a power pitcher with swing and miss stuff. I don’t see Norris being as effective at 32 unless he can develop more of his secondary pitches.

by astrosblogger on Dec 20, 2011 5:00 PM CST reply actions  

Extrapolating using limited stats isn't realistic

Bourgeois and Downs were only played in favorable situations, Lee had to play everyday.

Check out The Dream Shake.

by Patrick Harrel on Dec 23, 2011 11:07 AM CST up reply actions  

"Core Potential":

Pos Now Later
C Jason Castro Chris Wallace
1B Brett Wallace Jonathan Singleton1
2B Jose Altuve Delino DeShields Jr.
SS Jed Lowrie Jonathan Villar
3B Chris Johnson Michael Kvasnicka
RF Brian Bogusevic Domingo Santana
CF Jordan Schafer George Springer
LF JD Martinez Telvin Nash
OF Jack Shuck Austin Wates9
IF Jimmy Paredes Jonathan Meyer
C Humberto Quintero Roberto Pena
IF Matt Downs Jiovanni Mier
OF Travis Buck Jay Austin

SP Brett Myers Jarred Cosart
SP Wandy Rodriguez Jordan Lyles
SP $Bud Norris Paul Clemens
SP $JA Happ Brett Oberholtzer
SP Lucas Harrell Adrian Houser
SP Enerio Del Rosario Nick Tropeano
RP Sergio Escalona Dallas Keuchel
RP Fernando Rodriguez Mike Foltynewicz
RP David Carpenter Tanner Bushue
RP Wilton Lopez Jorge De Leon
RP Juan Abreu Jack Armstrong Jr.
CL Brandon Lyon Jason Stoffel

Others:
Jake Goebbert
Kody Hinze
Brandon Meredith
Jordan Scott
Vincent Velasquez
Marwin Gonzalez
Ben Heath
Rhiner Cruz
Kyle Weiland
Aneury Rodriguez
Jake Buchanan
Ross Seaton
Kyle Hallock
Josh Zeid

by Snake Diggity on Dec 20, 2011 5:26 PM CST reply actions  

GUYS, GUYS, GUYS!....lets not forget

The FUTURE of Astros baseball….Wallace Gonzelez!

by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 20, 2011 8:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Man I forgot about him

Too busy thinking about the dude who’s blocking him – GRANT HOGUE!

Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford

by BustaPozee on Dec 21, 2011 12:02 AM CST up reply actions  

JD Martinez

Even though he doesn’t play a premium position and isn’t a good defender, the guy has hit at every level. I think he can be a middle of the order hitter on a playoff team. Also, he’s still young and under team control for at least five – six more years.

by jmike on Dec 20, 2011 8:00 PM CST reply actions  

Core Players

I think we’ll need to look to Singleton, Cosart, and Springer.

As much as I like Norris, a part of me would like to see him involved in a Latos-like trade. The package the Padres got back for Latos was unbelievable. Thinking of the three guys I mentioned above plus 2-3 top top prospects such as the Padres got all hitting the major leagues in Houston at the same time gets me going.

by CRPerry13 on Dec 21, 2011 10:30 AM CST reply actions  

Not sure Norris has the same reputation as Latos. Bud has only had 1 good season, and it wasn’t even that stellar. I think Houston would struggle to get even a Pence-like return for Norris.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 21, 2011 10:46 AM CST up reply actions  

Even a Pence-like return

That’s a pretty tough return for any one player. I think 3 legit prospects and a throw in is about as good as you can get in a trade.

by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 21, 2011 4:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Norris could be a Core Player but

Seeing what the A’s and Padres got for there young pitchers I think you have to put some feelers out there if someone would go head over heals for Bud. I really think he will be costly by the time this team is a consistant winner.

by Nado2036 on Dec 21, 2011 12:58 PM CST reply actions  

I don’t think you can call a player a “core player” if they have yet to make it through one full season. Which throws out most of the current team. And of the guys we are left with, only Norris has the potential to improve and the potential to stick with the team for longer than 3 years. (I really dont see wandy or meyers resigning). So by default, it has to be Norris.

Miss-placed Houstonian living and going to school in the wilderness of Wyoming.

by BigNate7 on Dec 21, 2011 1:45 PM CST reply actions  

Could this hurt the Astros chances of trading Lee, Myers, and Wandy?

This article in NBC Hardball Talk suggests that the Cubs may go into a full tear down/ rebuild mode. It’s possible that the Cubs may try to sell as many of their veteran players for prospects as possible before spring training. Dempster, Soto, Garza, and Marmol could be among the players traded.

by clack on Dec 21, 2011 3:38 PM CST reply actions  

I see the trade market for pitchers of Wandy’s ilk getting flooded. Between remaining free agent options (Oswalt, Kuroda, Saunders, Jackson, Maholm) and players being shopped (Gio, Danks, Floyd, Dempster, Garza), I don’t see a very good market for Wandy (or Myers) at this point. I hope that they just hang on to him until the deadline when the free agents can’t water down the market. Same for Myers. I don’t think the young guys who would otherwise be in the rotation (Weiland, Lyles, CLemens, etc.) will be hurt by spending some time in AAA.

As for Lee, if anyone is willing to take $8M+ on him, I’d pull the trigger. Doubt that happens either.

by Snake Diggity on Dec 21, 2011 4:07 PM CST up reply actions  

The Cubs story seems to change everyday. Don’t know how true they are, but it seems like the Cubs are still getting mentioned in the Prince Fielder lottery.

by conroestro on Dec 21, 2011 5:49 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Core

The core of players needs to be without the expense of Carlos Lee. Then they could truely rebuild with a young outfield and Wallace at first. He can play if he is given the chance. At least we can find out what he can do and we should be able to find some young talent with the money after Lee is gone.

by easttexasfan on Dec 21, 2011 5:59 PM CST reply actions  

Core Players

Core players on the current roster is a tough question to answer, but I would have to say no. Although depending on their progress maybe a few could develop into core players, but its just as likely that they never do. Every potential core player option that the Astros have on the current roster comes with some sort of question mark.

Bud Norris: Seemed to take a big step forward last season, and if he took another step forward like that then he would become a special player. However he hasn’t produced consistently yet, and there is also a reason to be a little concerned about him being an injury risk. I think the scenario you alluded to, that Norris could possess more value in trade than he would to the Astros in a few years is a likely scenario.

Jose Altuve: Altuve has hit for a high average at every level he’s been at, and if he is able to do that in the majors then he will be a solid player. However his hacktastic ways could keep his OBP from being that much higher than his batting average.

Jason Castro: Looks to be an above average defensive catcher behind the plate, but the amount of offense he will provide is unknown, and there’s that injury thing as well.

Jimmy Paredes: A switch hitter that has a little pop and the tools to be a solid defender with plusthe speed has core player written all over it. But the odds that he is able to put his tools together and hit for a decent average may be against him in the near future.

In short those are the guys that I think have the potential to be a core player, but I wouldn’t be surprised if none of then reached there potential.

by conroestro on Dec 21, 2011 6:16 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

.....

Nobody has mentioned El Caballo

"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.

by bone31crusher on Dec 23, 2011 3:37 PM CST reply actions  

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