You're the new GM. What do you do?
Let's pretend Jim Crane and George Postolos call you up and offer you the GM job, which you humbly accept. Here are the mandates they give you:
-2012 Opening Day Payroll has to be below $55,000,000.
-As of Opening Day 2012, payroll commitments for 2013 and beyond cannot exceed $30M/yr.
-All moves must follow the plan to build a sustainable winner from within.
What roster moves would you make?
I'll go first; here are my moves:
1. You have to make trades to reduce payroll. If it is indeed true that Carlos Lee waived his 10&5 rights, then Lee, Wandy, Myers, and Lyon are all on the block. Here's what I'd try to land for each:
-Lee would be straight salary dump. I'd be willing to do Lee and $10M for a any non-top-30 organization prospect, which means it would likely end up being a reliever prospect. I think an AL team would bite on a deal like this.
-Lyon would also be a straight salary dump. I'd look to send Lyon and $2M for nothing in return. It's unlikely that there would be any takers.
-Myers might net an "interesting" prospect or two, depending on how much salary is taken on. He's a viable #4 starter on a playoff team, and if he were a free agent I think he'd end up getting a 2 or 3 years deal for around $8M/yr, so I'd like to send him and $5M off for 1 org-top 10 prospect plus another org top 30 prospect (think Austin Wates and Ross Seaton as a reasonable return for Myers and $5M).
-I believe Wandy has surplus value. He's a #2 starter on an average team and would be a #3 starter for a few playoff teams. I'd look to use him to complete the rebuild of the farm system. I'd do Wandy and $9M for a return similar to what Houston received in the Roy Oswalt trade (1 top 100 prospect, 1 org top 5 prospect, and 1 MLB ready fringe prospect).
Those trades would essentially clear the payroll entirely (although I'm going to assume that Lyon would remain), bolster the farm system, allow younger players more innings/at-bats, and present a completely clean slate for 2013.
2. Assess the roster. I'd keep Mills and the other coaches. Jettisoning Lee, Wandy, and Myers adds to the existing roster holes at C, SS, CF, SP, and CL. The good news is that now there is some payroll flexibility. My thoughts:
-Castro may not be ready to assume the full-time catcher role by the beginning of the year. Q's salary has exceeded his value. This position needs to be addressed.
-Wallace has been a bust at 1B, but with Singleton, Hinze, and Nash behind him in the system, the time to find out if he is a real MLB 1B is now.
-Altuve's speed, defense, and contact skills are good enough to allow him to learn on the job. Matt Downs and Jimmy Paredes provide some insurance.
-SS as it stands is a disaster. Sanchez is the only true SS on the roster and is not a viable everyday big leaguer, even on a rebuilding team.
-I think Paredes and Chris Johnson have enough to fill 3B for the time being.
-Bogusevic, Shuck, and Travis Buck are solid reserve outfielders and can combine to fill the RF, OF4 and OF5 roles. I've cooled on Bourgeois and Schafer. I'd actually see if Bourgeois had any trade value. If not, I bus Shuck to AAA and make him OF5. Martinez is an adequate LF and unfortunately will be expected to shoulder a lot of the offensive workload. The team could really use some help in CF.
-In the rotation, with Myers and Wandy gone, Norris and Happ are the only (somewhat) proven commodities. There are some young arms (Lyles, Harrell, Sosa, etc) who may be ready but there will need to be some help brought in.
-Given the state of the rest of the roster, the bullpen ranks pretty low on the list of priorities. With the depth of young arms who performed fairly well last year and the addition of Lyon, I wouldn't force anything.
3. Sign free agents to fill holes.
-At catcher, I'd non-tender Q. I'd try to bring in 2 veteran catchers on 1 year deals at less than $4M each. The list of players I'd look at would include Chris Snyder, Josh Bard, Ramon Castro, Jason Varitek, Kely Shoppach, Dioner Navarro, Jason Kendall, and Ivan Rodriguez.
-At SS, I'd scour the Rule 5 eligibles and see if anyone was worth taking (it doesn't look like there is anyone). If there were no viable options there, I'd sign a veteran on a 1 or 2 year deal. The list includes Yuniesky Betancourt, Edgar Renteria, Jerry Hairston, Nick Punto, Alex Gonzalez, Jack Wilson, Orlando Cabrera, and Craig Counsell. Paredes and Downs would be forced to play ~20 games each at SS.
-I'd bring in another outfielder to allow Schafer to work through his issues in AAA to start the year. Players who could add ability to man CF while providing adequate offense and being relatively affordable would be Rick Ankiel, Nate McLouth, Scott Hairston, and Corey Patterson.
-True front-line (or even mid-level) starting pitchers would be too expensive, so I"d look at high risk players that would come in on a 1 year deal and may make good trade bait at the deadline. I'd offer 1 year redemption deals to players like Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, Jon Garland, Brad Penny, Chris Young, and Chris Capuano and hope that 2 of them bit.
After all that, here's your opening day 25 man lineup:
CF Ankiel ($2M)
2B Altuve ($.4M)
LF Martinez ($.4M)
1B Wallace ($.4M)
RF Bogusevic ($.4M)
3B Johnson ($.4M)
C Snyder ($3M)
SS Wilson ($2M)
Bench: Buck ($.4M), Downs ($.4M), Navarro ($2M), Paredes ($.4M), Bourgeois/Shuck ($.4M)
Rotation: Norris ($.4M), Young/Webb/etc. ($1M), Garland ($4M), Happ ($2M), Harrell ($.4M)
Bullpen: Escalona ($.4M), F Rodriguez ($.4M), Carpenter ($.4M), Abreu ($.4M), Lyon ($5M), Lopez ($.4M), Melancon ($.4M)
That puts 2012 opening day payroll commitments at ~$54M (including the ~$26M eaten in the Lee, Wandy, and Myers trades), with ZERO salary commitments beyond 2012.
Garland, Webb, Lyon, Snyder, Navarro, Wilson, and Ankiel would all be possible trade candidates at the deadline, especially if the prospects behind them are ready to come up.
This team would obviously be terrible, but I still think they could win 70 games (interestingly enough, every offensive player on that roster has an OPS of 650 or higher, so while the lineup would be completely empty of stars or even above average hitters, there aren't any glaring weaknesses; no pitcher has a career ERA over 4.50). And there's potential for pleasant surprises all around if the prospects (Wallace, Altuve, Paredes, etc) find their snap or the veterans (Garland, Ankiel, etc) have redemption years.
What say you? What moves would make? How does that contrast with what you think we will see the actual GM do?
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As long as I have too much time on my hands...
this is how I’d staff the farm teams for Opening day:
Rotations:
AAA- Lyles, Clemens, Keuchel, Aneury, Xavier Cedeno – stacked
AA- Cosart, Oberholtzer, Buchanan, Seaton, Cisnero – lots of upside
A+- Armstrong, Tropeano, Hallock, Dufek, Doran
A- Foltynewicz, Houser, Bushue, Alaniz, Shirley
Position Players (starter by level—AAA,AA,A+,A):
C: Castro/Corporan, Wallace/Garcia, Heath/Genoves, Pena/Hamblin
1B: Van Ostrand, Hinze, Singleton, Nash
2B: Anderson Hernandez, TBD (JC Thompson/Trade?), Enrique Hernandez/John Hinson/Ben Orloff, DeShields
SS: Wikoff, Villar, Mier, TBD (Neiko Johnson/Trade?)
3B: Ozzie Navarro, Meyer, Kvasnicka, TBD (Duffy/Trade?)
RF: Goebbert, Bailey, Santana, Jordan Scott
CF: Schafer, Wates, Springer, Austin
LF: DeLome/Barnes, Steele/Gaston, King/Adamson, Meredith
Bullpen (Setup/Closers): Hicks/King/Leon, Lo/Zeid/Stoffel, Streilen/DeLeon/Chowning, Diaz/Meiners/Cole
Seems good.
I don’t think many teams would take on all these salary dumps though. The only players I could see netting anything in return is Rodriguez, Myers, and maybe Lee. Myers could fill in a spot on a lot of teams rotation, mostly to eat innings. Rodriguez would fill a good spot as a #2 or 3 for a contending team. Lee would be a salary dump with a little upside for signing team, maybe putting Lee at DH would make his numbers better. ’Stros send Lee w/$10 million for a fringe prospect or two.
Lee may have waived 10&5 rights, but he still has a limited no trade clause. Lee didn’t waive the 10&5 rights out of the goodness of his heart; it was part of expanding the limited no trade clause to 2 years instead of 1. Reportedly most, if not all, AL teams are “no trade.”
What’s your gut feeling on whether or not he’ll be traded? Lots of smoke indicating that Crane wants to clear the decks completely.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 2, 2011 4:57 PM CST up reply actions
Doubt it. Too many obstacles. Assuming the Astros pay all but $8 million of the contract, and assuming away the no trade clause, I have a hard time thinking of a team that would be interested in Lee at that price. But who knows.
Myers might be a better possibility if the Astros pay enough of his contract.
I don’t know, I think any competitive team with a 1B/DH need would be willing to pony up $8.5M for 1 year of Lee, if they didn’t have to give any real prospects.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 5, 2011 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Lee’s offense is about average for a DH or 1b. It’s just that there are a lot of players available who probably will be cheaper than $8 million, and give you a good chance at average offense at those positions. Sure, it’s worth asking the teams that are not on Lee’s no trade list if they would trade for him at that price—-no harm in asking. I would guess that the Astros will make those feelers. I just have a hard time thinking of the front office who would do that deal.
I am not Carlos Lee's biggest fan, by any stretch...
But he is the only player we have that even resembles a cleanup hitter. He did show some promise defensively this season, so I would just let him finish out that horrendous contract Purpura (jerk!) gave him.
I agree that removing Lee from the lineup drastically weakens the offense. At this point he’s the only proven major-league hitter on the roster.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 5, 2011 10:28 AM CST up reply actions
Should have put it in a
"In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in a mask of failure"
Should have put it in a
"In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in a mask of failure"
Sorry.
Internet acting up. Not only did I not finish my sentence, but I double posted it! ): Can’t seem to delete either. Just going to say great post, and you’d better be prepared if Crane reads this, because you might become his new plan Z.
"In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in a mask of failure"
by hunterpencefan on Dec 3, 2011 7:29 AM CST up reply actions
Here's what I would do...
Wandy, Myers, and Lyons are all on the salary books and their trade value is limited as such.
I would trade all three for prospects, and tell the other team that I would pay for ALL of their salaries, provided TOP prospects are returned.
Meaning if I trade Wandy to the Rockies, I’ll pay his whole salary, but I want Rosario, Arenado, and Pomeranz.
Since the Astros won’t be in the hunt until 2015 (or 2017 in my opinion), go ahead and pay the exorbitant price of those salaries as a cost of loading up the farm system, then in 2014 when everybody’s off the books, you have $30mm ish committed to payroll and a boatload of top 100 talent that you have control of for the next half decade.
It would never work, the owner would hate the idea, the other teams wouldn’t accept, but if I could pitch it in terms of future revenues and cost control…you never know.
No way Crane pays all $39M of Wandy’s salary or even the $13M he’s owed this year. And even if he did, I doubt Colorado would give up those 3 players. I’d be stoked if that happened though.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 5, 2011 10:33 AM CST up reply actions
He is coming off an injury-shortened year and has never really been a top arm. I’ll be shocked if he gets more than $6M.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 5, 2011 10:34 AM CST up reply actions
I would trade 6 of our top prospect for Miguel Tejada. He’s still got some left!!!
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 3, 2011 2:56 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Serious question
Would the Marlins be interested in Wandy? They’ve been rumored to be big players in FA so far and are looking for a good SP. Between them, the Nats, and the Rockies, we should be able to find someone to swap Wandy with.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 3, 2011 2:59 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I think the Marlins would be interested
But it would be after some of the bigger FA are off the board if they weren’t able to snag one. Same situation with most other teams out there, his market will become more clear when trading for pitching is the best option. I’ve heard the Red Sox have inquired, the reds are looking for help in the rotation as well. I think finding a trade partner will be easy, rather they are going to be willing to give up top prospects for that contract is the real question.
by lawson3 on Dec 3, 2011 6:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think the Marlins want to give up prospects to improve their team
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
i dont think they want to either
But they just spent a lot of money on a new stadium when they haven’t been able to put butts in the seats already. If they don’t land a FA they may feel obligated. Like I said it will be hard to tell until we know where the FA will fall.
by lawson3 on Dec 4, 2011 12:47 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Good Point
But the only guys I like from them is OF Christian Yelich and maybe 3B Matt Dominguez. Other than that, the Marlins don’t have much to offer. They do have some pitching prospects, but we aren’t looking for middle-of-the-rotation-starters. I’d be looking at other teams who have better prospects, especially starting pitchers and shortstops who have high ceilings.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
maybe if they are willing to part ways with morrison
other than that there are much more interesting trade scenarios with other teams. I suspect they end up signing Buehrle.
How about Wandy to the Reds for Yonder Alonso and perhaps a mid level prospect? In 2012, Alonso would play first base, but could move to DH in the later years if Singleton makes it to the majors. This is more or less giving up on Brett Wallace next year, but he is looking like he has some hitting issues to work on, and perhaps he can do that in AAA. Or, alternatively Wallace could be traded. The Reds want to trade Alonso for a starting pitcher.
funny you should mention that
i was looking at the Nationals trade possibilities and thought of getting a replacment for Wallace with Chris Marrero. Also Derek Norris whose stock is down after hitting .205 but mashed 20 homers. And i dont think we make a trade with out a top prospect, maybe a Brad Peacock. What do ya think?
that would be similar to the return snake mentioned in this article
A top 100 guy: Brad Peacock
A org top 10: Derek Norris (keep in mind they wanted a catcher from the Rockies)
A mlb ready guy: Chris Marrero
by lawson3 on Dec 4, 2011 6:04 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I’d like this. Wallace could be packaged with Myers or Lee to increase the prospect return on one of those deals.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 5, 2011 10:35 AM CST up reply actions
10 Things I'd like to see:
1. Select CF Jordan Danks in Rule 5
2. Select C Gorman Erickson in Rule 5
3. Select SP Nick Barnese in Rule 5
4. Sign SP Chris Young
5. Sign SS Jack Wilson
6. Sign C Chris Snyder
7. Trade Carlos Lee (and $12M) to Baltimore for 2B Brandon Waring
8. Trade Wandy Rodriguez (and $9M) to Cincinatti for DH Yonder Alonso, IF Junior Arias, and SP Sam LeCure
9. Trade Brett Myers (and $5M) to Colorado for IF Cristhian Adames and IF Daniel Mayora
10. Profit
Ew
I think I’m going to have to disagree with every single one of those moves. Nobody likes Alonso anymore, not even the Reds. Young hasn’t been healthy in like 30 years, Wilson can’t hit and is getting old, I don’t see a fit for Danks or Erickson on this roster, and I need a beer!
We’re allowed to disagree though. :)
I think a lot of teams like Alonso. When the Rays inquired about Alonso, reportedly the Reds wanted Shields in return. I like the idea of targeting Alonso in a Wandy trade, but I think Alonso will be dealt for a younger starting pitcher. For a team headed to the AL, Alonso could be a good pick up. He would have been the best hitter on the Astros last year.
Please explain to me the difference between Yonder Alonso and Brett Wallace. They both should hit for a decent average, they both lack the type of power expected from a 1B, neither is particularly well-regarded on defense, and both have stalled their careers in the upper minors.
If they trade Wandy AND Oswalt for essentially the same guy, I will not be thrilled.
When Brett Wallace posts a .900+ OPS in the majors, like Alonso did in 2011, let me know. Wallace is a little older than Alonso and has yet to show that he can hit in the majors. Alonso so far looks like he can hit in the majors at a level commensurate with his Top 50 prospect ranking. I have my doubts that Wallace will ever become a major league hitter, unless he can make significant changes to his approach. My interest in Alonso is that he could become the future DH for the Astros.
That’s a shocking statement, coming from you and what I know of your love for the numbers. Alonso had 98 whole plate appearances in 2011 to amass that .900 OPS. Talk about sample size! You can’t just discount the fact that he’s only had an OPS higher than .840 in the MINOR leagues once in his career, in over 1,300 PA’s!
In three fewer At-Bats in April of 2011, Brett Wallace posted a .988 OPS (better than Alonso’s).
So again, I ask, how are they not the same guy?
Because Wallace has already put up good evidence that he is not the guy he is supposed to be. He got kicked off his winter league team for bad performance. In 538 plate appearances, Wallace has a .106 ISO and 86 wRC+. Add on top of that scouts don’t like his batting mechanics. He can still reverse his career path, but time is running short.
At least, Alonso’s performance in the majors is consistent with the player he is supposed to be. (It’s also worth noting that Alonso played in the International League which is much tougher on hitters than the PCL, and particularly Las Vegas, where Wallace has played; an .840 OPS by Alonso probably is more similar to a .900+ OPS in Las Vegas.) I agree that Wallace and Alonso were supposed to be similar players, but right now I think it is more likely that Alonso will be the player that we thought Wallace would be.
You can get an idea from the Bill James 2012 projections of the difference in “profile” based on data so far for each player: Alonso wOBA .347 ISO .169; Wallace wOBA .318 ISO .132.
By the way, Alonso had a .860 OPS in the International League in 2011, which is higher than the .840 you mention.
To show the difference in hitting environment between the International League and PCL, according to Fangraphs stats:
Alonso had the 9th highest OPS in the IL, but that same .860 OPS would have been 34th highest in the PCL.
Snake, the Astros only have two open spots on their 40 man roster; can’t pick three Rule 5 players in that situation.
If they made the 3 trades I mentioned, Lee, Wandy, and Myers would be off the 40 man with LeCure and Alonso being the only 40 man prospects, so techinically there would be 3 slots open. Of course there would have to be some other moves prior to signing Young, Wilson, and Snyder like (hopefully) designating Sanchez and Tatum along with non-tendering Q.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 6, 2011 9:34 AM CST up reply actions
Right. That’s what would happen in the imaginary world I live in in which I am Houston’s GM.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 6, 2011 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
Post Rule-5 Moves I'd like to see...
Still need help on the big league team at C, CF, and SP. If Myers and/or Wandy is traded, they will need replacements for them. Would also like to see 3-4 more good middle infield prospects acquired for the farm system.
It appears that there is a shortage of everyday caliber SS candidates in free agency, so I am alright with Marwin Gonzalez getting a crack at it. Rollins and Furcal are way out of hte price range, and fringier guys like Betancourt, Renteria, Gonzalez, and Wilson will all probably get more than $4M/yr. I’d kick the tires on Punto, Tejada, Cabrera, and Counsell, but like I said, I’m alright with Marwin.
They should sign a catcher or two. Castro is still a very risky play. Snyder, Bard, Ramon Castro, Varitek, Shoppach, Navarro, Kendall, and Pudge are all guys I would check the price on. The Doumit, Laird, Molina, Schneider, and Barajas signings (all under $5M) show me that the price is low enough on these guys that it makes sense for Houston to upgrade from Q and get Jason Castro some help.
There are still a lot of OF prospects that could provide surplus value to this year’s team. Crisp, Cespedes, and Beltran are too expensive, but Ankiel, Hairston, Chavez, Jones, Cameron, and Patterson all will be cheap enough and add quite a bit to the lineup. McLouth’s $1.75M deal shows that.
I would’ve liked to have seen Houston get Broxton or Rauch, since both players signed for under $5M. I’m anxious to see how much Cordero gets.
Oswalt, Darvish, Jackson, Millwood, Vazquez, and Kuroda are too rich for Houston’s blood. Chris Young, Harden, Kazmir, Webb, Willis, Garland, and Penny are guys I’d kick the tires on. That $4.5M Pittsburgh paid Bedard looks like a steal.
I’d like to see 1 yr deals for Ankiel, Chris Young, Navarro, and Snyder. If Wandy and/or Myers are traded, hopefully they’ll return a MLB ready SP prospect.
if i were gm
nice article… i think myers and wandy are top pitchers… both are #3’s and teams are going to want them badly…hold out get some good return.. do not eat any $$… agree clee you need to eat some…maybe half… a 95 rbi guy gets an 8mil contract…lyons is good if he is ok…helps th bp… ALTUVE.??.come’on he has an obp of .275…doesnt know how to bunt range at 2b is not good…undisciplined at plate swings at everything…downs at 2b..has a .500 slgng %…we got our ss in the rule 5 draft…at least fill in until villarmoves up…agree on wallace..put him at 1b..leave him there…see what he does… he has massive power…and he hit about .260 so far…defensively he is just ok…i like schafer… in cf…. bogusevic in rf…hernandez in lf…i still like bourgeois…he is versatile…and fast…speed is valuable…schuck looked pretty good ….angel v doesnt hit well enough to stay… johnson should be in AAA…. paredes looks good…hits pretty well and has speed… i think we should enter spring trng..with goal of putting together a roster for the season…a winning roster…aforementioned trades should still be for future prospects…schafer projected out would have had 50 sbs….he was atlanta’s starting cf..hits pretty well…. and he is 24 or25… bourn is ?? 31?…magnus
Post Non-Tender Update
Keppinger, Theriot, Saunders, and Ronny Paulino are non-tenders I’d check the price on.
Desperately need help at catcher, especially given the recent injury to Castro. How is Q worth as much as Shoppach, Laird, Molina, and Schnieder? Snyder, Bard, Ramon Castro, Pudge, Varitek, Dioner Navarro, Kendall, and Paulino are all better and won’t break the bank.
CF could still use an upgrade, but the pickings are slim. Ankiel and Hairston are options. I doubt Ross, Chavez, Jones, Patterson, Cameron can play CF, but they may be worth a look.
If Wandy and Myers are shipped out, and maybe even if they aren’t, a high-upside SP signing could go a long way. Harden, Young, Webb, and Kazmir are options. We couldn’t offer Dontrelle Willis more than $1M? The Bedard signing was a steal. Maholm, Jackson, Millwood, Garland, Penny, and Saunders are names I’ll be watching. If any of them come off the board for less than $5M/yr, Houston should’ve taken a stab.
I’d offer Francisco Cordero 1yr and $4M.
Post Melancon-Trade Update
So the SS problem appears to be solved. Houston still needs help at catcher and could use an upgrade in CF. Give me C Chris Snyder, CF Rick Ankiel, and SP Chris Young, all on cheap 1 year deals. Keep Wandy until the deadline, trade Carlos Lee in a salary dump, and trade Brett Myers and send enough $ to get 2 org top 30 prospects (preferably IF guys). Doing all those things gives the Astros a much improved MLB team at <$50M payroll and a farm with very few glaring holes.
I’m glad that the Astros re-signed Quintero. The new pitch-f/x derived pitch framing studies are showing that some catchers are undervalued. Quintero appears to be one of the catchers whose value is underrated. There has been some speculation that the Rays’ signed Jose Molina because of the recent work on pitch framing. Taking into account the catcher whom he replaces, Molina adds something like 3 – 4 runs saved improvement to the Rays, which is extraordinary.
With Castro’s injury creating uncertainty as to how long he will be out, I suspect that the Astros will wait to see if any bargains arise after other teams have had their pick. But I could be wrong. Looking for more catching depth apparently is on Luhnow’s things to do list.
It would be on my list too
If I were Luhnow, I’d be looking for some cheap catching and relief pitching options. Either looking at options in free agency or via trade.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
I agree. I like this fangraphs article on bottom of the barrel relievers. The concept is to identify relievers who pitched poorly but appear to be poised for a rebound based on their advanced stats. A couple of NRI relievers (or otherwise cheap relievers) signed in this fashion could be fruitful. A side benefit of this strategy is that a veteran reliever who rebounds can be flipped for a prospect at the trade deadline.
Molina signed for the same price as Q, and I think he’s a lot better, especially offensively.
I don’t have a huge problem with Q, I just think that there are a lot of catchers in free agency who can provide a lot more value for the same price.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 19, 2011 9:58 AM CST up reply actions
Molina had a good offensive season last year, though it was largely fueled by unsustainable BABIP. But, at age 36, it’s not like he can be expected to be a whole lot better on offense than Quintero (though I agree he is better).
The Bill James projection: .230, .284, .329, .613
,
I would have been fine with signing Molina (Wade would have had to do it). He cost about $500 K more than Quintero. But it’s possible that he would have cost the Astros more than that salary, since he probably prefers to play for a contender.

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