Astros Get Zapped by ZIPS again...
by clack on Dec 19, 2011 3:01 PM CST
in Stat Geeky
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the upper levels of the organization look a bit like the baseball equivalent of post-World War II Europe if we had gone in and just kept bombing the cities for a few more years just for the hell of it.
The offense projects to be just terrible. Bombed out, maybe, but not likely to be launching many bombs. Carlos Lee and J.D. Martinez project to be the only two above average offensive players, with an OPS+ of 106 and 104, respectively. (And those OPS+ forecasts for Lee and Martinez would be below average for the positions that they play.)
The projection for Altuve is surprisingly good. I would gladly accept a .292, .322, .403 slash line from him in 2012. That's not great, but it would be pretty darned good for a 2d baseman who will be only 22 years old. From there the offense is grim.
Brett Wallace is the fourth best offensive player on the team, but his rate stats are projected to be basically the same as last year (97 OPS+ vs. 96 OPS+ last year). Jed Lowrie and Matt Downs are projected to post the same OPS+ as Wallace. Of course, a 97 OPS+ looks a lot better at shortstop than 1st base. You probably find the offensive projection for Downs to be disappointing---but frankly who the hell knows since his part time stats last season was his first good ML showing?
And, despite the disappointment of a .255 batting average and .728 OPS from Downs, that turns out to be the Astros' best offensive hope out of 3d base. The 3d base incumbents are forecasted to be terrible. Chris Johnson and Jimmy Paredes are both forecasted to be way, way below average for 3d base.
The Rule 5 utility infielder, Marwin Gonzalez, is projected to be somewhat better than Angel Sanchez, and his .650 OPS should be enough to justify his place on the major league roster.
I am surprised at how bad the projection is for Bogusevic. If he posts a .233, .304, .338 slash line, as ZIPS projects, he will be a total bust. In fact, all of the options for CF and RF project are horrendous (I'm trying to find other words rather than continuing to say "terrible"). I'm not as optimistic about Bogusevic as some around here, but I do think that ZIPS is probably way too low.
The offenive projection for the catcher position is terrib...er, appalling.
Wandy is projected to be the Astros' best starting pitcher, but his 100 OPS+ is not much better than average for a starter. Bud Norris and Brett Myers are the only starting pitchers who are close to average. And, if you want to get scared--like maybe the first time you watched The Exorcist--look at the remaining rotation stats if Myers and Wandy are traded away. Oberholtzer is the only minor league starting pitcher who is projected as a sub-5 ERA pitcher for the rotation. An exorcist may be required by Astros fans if the expected trades take place.
The bullpen is dreary too. Wilton Lopez is the only guy who projects to be close to league average for a reliever. Though Abreu's results are projected to be well below average for a relief pitcher, I might be encouraged if he can post the projected 4.10 ERA.
The ZIPS projections of notable events are an interesting way of seeing how the probabilities of various outcomes are distributed for particular players.
You want to know why trading for Lowrie was a good idea? He has a 46% probability of being excellent or very good next year, which is the best probability of premium performance for any Astros' position player. That, my friend, is upside. Jose Altuve has the next highest probability (30%) of excellent or very good performance in 2012. Carlos Lee is third at 28%. On the other side, Brett Wallace has a 56% probability of being poor vs. a 12% probability of being excellent or very good. Those aren't good odds.
Here is a sorry projection, J.D. Martinez with a 5% probability represents the highest probability for .375 or higher OBP on the team. On a more intriguing note, Jose Altuve has a 37% chance of a .300+ batting average and a 24% chance of 10+ triples.
Another fun thing to mention: one of J.D. Martinez's comparables is Carlos Lee. Out with the old and in with the ...same... in LF?
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It was hard to read after I read "it's gonna be like post world war II Europe".
That hurts…..
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
Yes, but it did make me laugh
I’m an optimist and refuse to take the pessimistic point of view. I won’t mind if we have a second straight “worst team in baseball” season, because in the long run its only going to make us better. Look at the Nats for example. Back to back 1st overall selections in the draft and they are primed to make an annual run at the playoffs.
Now, I do see some positives that ZIPS probably doesn’t. Happ for instance, had a great turnaround after his stint in AAA. I think he has a real shot of continuing what he showed at the end of last season. Lyles should continue to progress on his location and his experience will begin to pay off the more he pitches. Myers, he can’t really be that bad again, RIGHT? Bud might actually regress a little, but then again, he could just as easily progress and step into the VERY GOOD/ELITE status with better command and approach.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 19, 2011 4:12 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Me and you would be great friends if your an optimist.
It made me laugh really hard reading the world war 2 comparison, what hurt was that it was comparing to how bad are projections looked.
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
Now, I do see some positives that ZIPS probably doesn’t. Happ for instance, had a great turnaround after his stint in AAA. I think he has a real shot of continuing what he showed at the end of last season.
There’s no way to predict Happ. His FIP is pretty steady. It’s his ERA that wildly fluctuates.
I like ZIPS as a talking point. Should we be taking it deadly serious, probably not. Are we going to suck in 2012, yes. Will there be some positive surprises along the way, yes. We can hope for better from Weiland, Lyles, and heck even Norris than what is on there.
The ZIPS projection isn’t all that unfavorable for Happ if you compare it to his results from last year. He is projected to post a 4.68 ERA, which is a helluva lot better than his Ryan-Rowland Smith type ERA in 2011. Unfortunately, Happ becomes the No. 2 rotation pitcher if Wandy and Myers are traded…and a 4.68 ERA is poor for a No. 2. If he is the No. 5 pitcher, not so bad.
ZIPS also projects improvement for Lyles next year, although his results (4.76 ERA) are still pretty bad. But it beats a 5+ ERA. ZIPS sees Lyles as a fairly low ceiling guy next season. He is projected as having a 2% chance of a breakout year and a 0% chance of an ERA+ over 130, and a 8% chance of an ERA+ of 100.
Pointed out to me on Twitter
The GM of this mess is gone. The owner that owned this mess is gone. And the scene of the crime, the NL Central, will be gone as well in another year (at least, as far as the NL West-bound Astros are concerned).
Hey when were we moved to the NL West?
I would be thrilled if Altuve put up those projected numbers.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 19, 2011 4:57 PM CST via mobile reply actions
Didn’t expect Altuve to be projected that high.
Was surprised Bogusevic was projected that low.
The bullpen is projected to do much worse than I would expect.
Everything else was about what I would’ve predicted.
C is a disaster as it stands.
1B will be fine; Lee is an above average player and if he is traded, Wallace shouldn’t be a dramatic downgrade.
2B will be fine, especially if Altuve puts up those #s. Downs provides solid insurance.
SS will be much upgraded, Lowrie could break out and projects to be plus offensively for hte position, and Gonzalez’s projections weren’t too shabby.
I’m not as worried about 3B as others. While CJ and Paredes aren’t projected to be stellar, those #‘s to me don’t scream “horrendous”. Especially if Paredes can improve defensively.
Also not worried about RF, as I think Bogusevic will do better than that. If not, I’m high on Travis Buck. Bourgeois and Shuck are fair reserve OFs.
CF is a disaster as it stands.
LF will be fine as Martinez projects to be a good hitter.
If the rotation stays as-is, it’s only 1 pitcher away from being good. Wandy, Norris, Myers, and Happ all project as average 2,3,4,and 5 SPs. There just isn’t an ace in this bunch. If Wandy is traded, look out, it could get ugly. If both Wandy and Myers are traded, it may be the worst rotation in history.
I think the bullpen will be much better than those projections.
While CJ and Paredes aren’t projected to be stellar, those #‘s to me don’t scream "horrendous"
They are both projected to have an OPS below .700. CJ projects to have a .294 OBP and Paredes projects to have a .281 OBP. That’s the horrible part. That kind of OBP is worse than Pedro Feliz territory. And Paredes isn’t projected to reach .400 SLG, and CJ barely reaches that threshold. So, it’s not like their power makes up for a pitiful OBP for a third baseman. Hopefully ZIPS is wrong about them.
Bullpens are hard to project well. Non-premium relievers are erratic from year to year. Looking at each reliever projection individually, I don’t see much that’s unreasonable, except that I think David Carpenter has been underestimated by ZIPS. Usually what happens is that 1 or 2 of the relievers will have a better year than expected; that seems to come with their erratic nature. So that might help the bullpen. The guys who are worse than expected end up back in AAA (like Abad last season). There are a number of relievers who are shown as having greater than 10% chance of being good next season. 1 or 2 of those guys may put up better than expected stats.
Pedro Feliz’s OBP with the Astros was .243, so I don’t think CJ and/or Paredes will be anywhere near that bad. I see a .250-.260 BA with 10-15 HRs and find it hard to describe that as horrendous. Of course an above average defensive performance would make that line a lot easier to swallow.
That’s a good point that not only are relievers performances more erratic, but their shorter leashes make predicting a team’s overall reliever performance that much more difficult.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 19, 2011 5:46 PM CST up reply actions
An OBP below .300 for a “hitting” position (i.e., setting aside positions like shortstop or catcher) is very bad. That’s why Feliz’s offense was ridiculed for most of his career.
I remember him being considered average offensively with a few years of above average when he hit for power. Yes, a .280-.300 OBP would rank near the bottom of everyday 3B, possibly even last overall, but I don’t consider McGehee or Prado horrendous offensive players. I’ll grant you that those projected performances are far below average for the position, but given the state of the franchise and the age of the players, I think it’s worthwhile to give them the job and won’t be the major weakness of the offense. Now, if C and CF are addressed, that would change things, but for now, 3B is not a major concern for me.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 19, 2011 5:52 PM CST up reply actions
Looks about right
Bogusevic – I’m sure his numbers are weighed down by his age and mediocre numbers in AAA the last couple of years.
In the opposite direction, young Altuve and his gaudy minor league stats translate well for future success.
I agree that CF and C are major concerns.
I still think Bourgeois should be in the running for CF
He put up stellar numbers at the begining of last season and I feel with his speed, he can do it again. I see a right handed Michael Bourn
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 19, 2011 9:16 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
He was a menace on the base paths last year when healthy, I will give you that, although atI times heKeith may havebe borderlined wreckless. I do like Jason Bourgeois, but as the fourth outfielder.
I like defense in center, and I just don’t see him being solid enough to hold down the position, but this has been debated several times here. With the young pitching that the team could potentially have, I wouldn’t mind seeing an above average center fielder defensively, and I don’t think that’s Bourgeois.
I can understand why everybody is down on Jordan Schafer as he is the definition of a buy low candidate, but if he brings solid defense in center then I would want to see him out there more times than not, unless an outside candidate that is a better option is brought on board, which is unlikely. Internally, in my opinion Jordan Schafer is the best centerfield option on the team.
by conroestro on Dec 20, 2011 12:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
at times he may have been borderline reckless
Sorry about the typos.
by conroestro on Dec 20, 2011 12:39 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I think Bourgeois needs consistant playing time
I do, however, like Schafer. When he was with the Braves, I remember thinking, “that is one of the fastest guys I’ve ever seen!” I’ve seen Michael Bourn, Jason Bourgeois, Ricky Weeks, Bonifacio…ect…but, I didn’t expect Shafer to be able to beat out throws like he did. When we landed him, I wasn’t upset, but I knew he wasn’t the next Matt Kemp either. I’m not against Schafer, but if Bourgeois can maintain (or stay close) to what he did at the begining of last year, we could have an All Star CFer…or another trade piece come the July.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 20, 2011 4:33 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Schafer’s talent level is there, and this coming year is a big one for him. I think his maturity issues necessitate a start in the minors.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 20, 2011 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
Eff This
Rangers get negotiating right to Yu Darvish
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
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Astros lead the series 1-0
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
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Houston Astros
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. |
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| Sun 05/27 | 3:10 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
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St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
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Pittsburgh
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21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
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Milwaukee
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19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
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Chicago
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15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:14 PM CDT)
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