Should The Astros Consider Trading Bud Norris
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 2:59 AM CST
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As Native_Astro alluded to in this week’s podcast, given what the A’s received from the Diamondbacks in the Trevor Cahill trade, along with their expected asking price for Gio Gonzalez, now may be the time to start listening to trade offers on Bud Norris. Being under team control through 2016 doesn’t make trading Norris a necessity, but it could make sense given where the market currently stands on starting pitching to field trade offers. With that being said, listed below are some of the pros and cons of trading Bud Norris.
Selling High – Coming off of a solid season in which Norris pitched a career high 186 innings while recording a 3.77 ERA, Norris could draw a decent amount of interest should he be made available. Add to that the fact that he would be under team control until the 2016 season, and is still very cost effective, and Norris could slide right in behind Gio Gonzalez as the next best thing available on the starting pitching front.
Injury Concern – Injuries are a concern for all pitchers, and while they haven’t been a major concern for Norris so far, the fact that he relies so heavily on the use of his slider could leave him more susceptible to injury in the future. He has had the recurring Biceps tendinitis injury the past two seasons, and even though he has been able to remedy these injuries with rest so far he may not be as lucky in the future. By trading now the Astros would no longer have to worry about whether or not the thirty-six percent of sliders he throws each year will cause his arm to fall off.
Current State Of The Team – New owner Jim Crane and CEO George Postolos have not been shy about the fact that the Astros are going through a rebuilding process, and that it could be several years before the team is a contender. Norris will be 27 years old by opening day next season, and by the time the Astros are expected to compete again Norris could be in his 30’s, and nearing the end of being under team control. If his value is at a high then grabbing a few more impact pieces could help speed up the rebuild process.
Endurance – Norris has showed a penchant for cruising through the first half of the game, but then consistently runs into trouble when his pitch count gets above 100. There were several times that he would struggle to pitch into the 7th inning consistently this past season. This could be something that he is able to correct with more experience, but it could also be a sign that Norris tires at the 100 pitch limit, and that is all you are going to get out of him.
Potential To Improve – Norris is the type of pitcher that trading now could come back to haunt you in the long run. He took a big step forward last season, and if he is able to do the same again while also diversifying his repertoire and becoming a smarter pitcher, then he could put up some very productive seasons.
Cost Controlled – The same thing that would make him desirable to other teams also makes him valuable to the Astros. Solid pitcher’s are hard to come by, and the fact that he has not even hit arbitration yet bodes well for the Astros. They could use a couple of seasons of solid pitching from a lower cost pitcher that could buy them time until they become competitive again.
Experienced Pitcher’s Needed – With the Astros reportedly shopping Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez this offseason the Astros would need experience in their rotation to help anchor the staff. Even though choosing to trade Norris would likely mean that one of Myers or Rodriguez would remain on the team, the current rotation would lack experience. Presumably Myers’ and J.A. Happ would be the only two with a significant amount of time in the majors.
Public Perception – Astros fans have been through a lot the last few years. First of all there’s that pesky AL West realignment deal looming over the fanbase. Plus, a year after seeing franchise icons Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman dealt away up-and-coming stars Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn were traded this past season. Astros fans may not be able to stomach the thought of another promising young player being traded away.
Is Bud’s Trade Value Really That High – This is a tough one for me to figure out. Some of the above reasons listed as cases for trading Bud Norris would also be considered as reasons why other teams would not want to trade for him. Going back to the A’s for a second, Bud Norris had a comparable season to Trevor Cahill, but is also three years older. Below is a look at the stats for the last three seasons of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Bud Norris.
Bud had a comparable 2011 season to the two A’s hurlers, but after that does not have the same track record in terms of both production and innings pitched as the other two.
In conclusion, it will be interesting to see what value the A’s receive if they decide to trade Gio Gonzalez which seems likely. It will also be interesting to see if the package is enough to force the Astros to consider trading Bud Norris this offseason or before the trade deadline. If they choose not to trade Norris then it also may make sense to sign him to a pre-arbitration contract and buy out a year or two of free agency to keep Norris in Houston through his prime years.
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Bud Norris once peed in a tractor trailors gas tank as a joke
That tractor trailor is now known as Optimus Prime…
Should we trade Bud? We should listen. If another Pence deal comes along, you can’t turn that down. Any team in the AL west should be looking to trade for Bud though. He’s known round these parts for his expertise in Pujolsology.
by Its Gonna Happen on Dec 15, 2011 4:54 AM CST via mobile reply actions 2 recs
Your good at the bud/chuck jokes.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 9:10 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
why on earth.....
for what reason? to trade a frontline starter who under control for four years for “more” prospects than the 32676234 Astros have already is ridiculous. Unless you get a stud from a team that is backed up at a position, no point. Just dumb.
All prospects are not equal. Just because I have 32,676,234 Pintos doesn’t mean I don’t want a Ferrari.
by seanbergmanrules on Dec 15, 2011 6:56 AM CST up reply actions 2 recs
That makes no sense...
you made my point, that even if they got 4 prospects, that doesn’t mean those 4 won’t be a Pinto, when Norris has already proven himself to be, at this moment, a good middle of rotation guy for most teams, and the front guy for Astros. Ridiculous. No reason to trade him for age and cost. whatsoever, shouldn’t be a discussion.
Really...
Yes that makes sense. Have a team full of rookies and young players at the moment, then trade one of the young pitchers that has made a impact when he still has 4 years of control left on him at dirt cheap cost, for MORE prospects. whats the point in trading a young pitcher for other young unproven players? Its constant rebuilding mode, to trade panned out prospects for more prospects.
This is true, but it does no good to have one Bud Norris type on the roster. The idea would be to get as many Bud Norris types as you can and then build around them.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 4:38 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
It also doesn’t mean that we won’t get a Ferrari. I don’t understand how you can trash a hypothetical trade that doesn’t even have any prospects mentioned. Obviously no one here wants to trade Norris for organizational filler, but at the same time, if you can trade him for a great prospect who more closely aligns with our competitive window, why not?
Sure Norris is good. Sure Norris is cheap. Thats why he’d bring a decent return. I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the difference between 50 wins and 60 wins isn’t particularly important.
by seanbergmanrules on Dec 15, 2011 5:07 PM CST up reply actions
I agree with what you said. Great prospects who align with the teams competitive window would be worth considering.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 7:27 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Listen to offers
But I would need to be blown away. Or at least dead certain that the other team was significantly over paying.
It’s not that I’m just crazy high on bud. It’s that he’s cheap, cost controlled for the next several years, still has potential upside, & yeah he’s a solid mid rotation guy. That’s exactly what a rebuilding team needs.
Trading him & Wandy could push it to 110 loss territory & beyond. I’m all for selling high on guys & the rebuild effort but they have to field a team in 2012 & I’d prefer that team not be worse than last year’s since it will be our last ride in the good league.
by man07 on Dec 15, 2011 7:27 AM CST via mobile reply actions
Good idea? probably not. But I say that without knowing what the trade return would be; everyone has their price, I guess. I think the Astros would have to get a huge return to make it attractive. And I don’t see it happening. I think he is not valued at the same level as your examples by the baseball world. Some of it has to do with pedigree and reputation. But mostly I think that a 27 year old starter who relies primarily on a two pitch repertoire will not be viewed as a difference-maker in most teams’ rotations. I wouldn’t be surprised if some scouts still profile him as a future closer rather than starter. Norris’ ERA+ was 100 last year—-exactly league average, and his career ERA+ is 91, below average.
Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill have career ERA+ of 106 and 107 at a significantly younger age than Norris. and that’s not considering the added factor that both pitched in the AL, implying that they would have had an ERA+ much higher in the NL. I don’t think teams would offer the same trade return for Norris as Cahill or Gonzalez. .If Norris was a LHP, like Gonzalez, maybe the story would be different.
I think Norris has a bulldog personality that you can build a young team around. And the Astros should continue working with Norris to improve his pitch repertoire.
by clack on Dec 15, 2011 7:48 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I agree with you that the benefits of keeping him outweigh the benefits of trading him. He doesn’t have as solid a track record as the A’s guys, and he probably has more value to the Astros right now than to other teams.
Just a thought.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 9:28 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
No.
Unless they can a couple of prospects in a team’s top 5, and I don’t think that will happen.
"In the biographies of men and nations, success often arrives in a mask of failure"
A good GM will listen to offers on any player.
That being said, I don’t see much utility in trading Norris this year or next. Our rotation is going to be pretty wobbly for the time being, might as well keep him around.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Dec 15, 2011 9:28 AM CST via mobile reply actions
I would listen to any offers on Bud, however..
I would also exhaust any and all options for trading Wandy, Myers, Lee first.
Let’s be honest here: The aforementioned guys are all expendables at this point, so unless you absolutely need to get rid of Bud right now (which the Astros don’t), you should do everything you can to hold on to him for the time being.
As others have mentioned, he’s a cost controlled, pre-arb eligible player but I think he’s also someone who’s poised to have a potential breakout season in 2012.
In other words, if you sold now on him, you might not be getting the maximum value in return.
I think Luhnow should be willing to listen to any and all offers, but his top priority is to stay focused on moving the high priced vets.
I agree with you that trading the higher priced vets would be top priority.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 9:58 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
" you should do everything you can to hold on to him for the time being.
As others have mentioned, he’s a cost controlled, pre-arb eligible player but I think he’s also someone who’s poised to have a potential breakout season in 20xx."
- Pittsburgh Pirates, re: Ian Snell, Hot Stove 2007
I’m not saying Norris won’t breakout, but they call it selling high for a reason. Sure, he could have a breakout season and build even more value. He could also be nontendered in two years.
by seanbergmanrules on Dec 15, 2011 5:12 PM CST up reply actions
That is why I figured it would be worth discussing… The power of the unknown.
We know the value of Norris to this team right now, and if he stays healthy that will only increase. If not then….
by conroestro on Dec 16, 2011 7:38 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I don't see this trade happening, unless we do get blown away.
I doubt other exec’s. value him as high as Cahil, so I doubt it.
I LOVE THE ASTROS. Now lets win something!
I don't see this happening but......
….It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Norris is very valuable and if a team would be interested in over-paying for him..why not? The Astros are roughly 3+ years away and if you can get some younger talent for Norris I don’t think it would be ridiculous to think about.
Give it a year
Norris has shown pretty good improvement so far, but I get the sense that 2012 will be another step up. If Norris comes out of the gate blazing, I say entertain offers at the trade deadline. For a pitcher who is currently pitching fantastic, at a time when teams are trying to beef up, with his salary, his years of team control…..the Astros might be able to demand a king’s ransom.
I like the idea in theory, if it speeds up the Astros trek to relevance, but I don’t think this offseason is the right time for it. They’ll still have the option in a couple years and there’s nothing to suggest Bud will regress instead of improve.
Yeah, this would be a good approach.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 10:32 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Listen to offers on anybody including Bud
If you get blown away, make a move. If not, wait until you do.
I say, hold for now.
Lets hope Bud makes another leep forward and evaluate the team after next years off season. If the team looks to make a push back towards contention in a few years, hold onto him. If it seems our prospects aren’t progressive fast enough, sell him even higher next year( if he improves over 2011 performance.)
another thing to consider...
The Brewers and Cardinals offense will be taking a step or 2 back. Pujols is gone, Fielder more than likely gone, and Braun may be getting a 50 game suspension. So, I believe that increases the chances of Bud having a better year and selling him higher next year if need be.
Nice idea
but I’d rather not countenance it. I’m banking on Norris shaving a run off his ERA in the next two years.
Yeah, I’m hopeful he can turn into a special pitcher as well. If he can continue taking steps forward, and expand his repertoire he could be special.
His velocity was down about 1 mph on everything he threw, so this could be a nice that he was starting to transform from a thrower to a pitcher and that he needed to improve his command to become more successful.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 3:31 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I’d say tap the brakes. I don’t see much that tells me Bud will be anything more than a good #3/average #2 over the next 3-5 years. And reaching his #2 ceiling is probably less likely than a derailing injury or him plateauing as an average #3.
by Snake Diggity on Dec 15, 2011 3:33 PM CST up reply actions
I see where he still has room to improve on last year.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 3:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Baseball America projects Bud to be the #1 starter for the Astros in 2015
Ahead of Wandy and Cosart, I might add.
Our #1 starter
Not a #1 starter.
If they could have given us two #2 starters to top off our rotation I think they would have but they had to put someone #1.
I say listen on offers and if a very good deal comes around you take it, there is no rush but Bud is highly unlikely to be part of the next Astros team worthy of a playoff spot so if the front office comes to a point where they think his value has peaked in trade then they need to take it.
I would listen to offers, but it would need to be an overwhelming offer. I think the Astros will know more about the length of the rebuilding process after this season. A 3 year window is possible. A 5 year window is possible. If things are breaking right, the 3 year window might be possible and Norris could be a part of that team. That may not be likely, but we won’t have a good feel for it without another season of data.
For me the performance of the big league club is not the only factor in determining if we have turned the club around. Even if the team returns to being a quality club in a few season I would hope we continue to view players at the ML level in terms of value and if a players value has peaked (in the front offices opinion) and there are players in the minors ready or nearly ready to take the spot we consider moving the him.
I say this because I would like to see the club take the position that the rebuilding process is not over until the big league club is good and the minors are packed with a supply of talent that will assure we can trade players who are likely to become more costly than their output, and that we have the flexibility to acquire talent in ways other than high priced free agent acquisitions.
From the sound of it I think that is along the same lines as the vision that Crane and Postolos have for the Astros.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 8:53 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
But that’s exactly the point, Norris is not a high priced free agent. If the team starts to become competitive in 3 years, Norris might be a more cost effective alternative than signing a free agent pitcher. It might even be a good idea to lock up Norris to a team friendly contract in the next couple of years to make that happen.
Yeah, I wouldn’t mind seeing that happen. I put that in the last paragraph also, and I think that would be the option that I would most like to see. Sign Norris to a team friendly contract that maybe could buy out two years of free agency. If in that time frame you realize that your window to compete is not going to coincide with Norris’ time with the club then he still would have value assuming he stays healthy. You could argue that his value could increase depending on the contract.
by conroestro on Dec 16, 2011 7:33 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Is it allowable to sign a player to a contract
with a declining dollar amount and front load the deal?
I could actually see buying out two years of free agency with Norris in order to extend the window we have to decide if we are in contention or trade him as a pretty good idea.
Barring a declining value contract I wish we would sign more flat value deals.
Nothing prevents a front loaded contract. Most teams don’t want to do it, though, because it raises the net present value of the contract.
You don’t really see that many front loaded contracts.
It would be worth considering buying out a few years of free agency for a reasonable cost.
by conroestro on Dec 16, 2011 4:24 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Trading Norris isn't something we should be doing at this time.
Last year was really the first year that Norris showed he could pitch well enough to become a reliable and dependable starter. He did falter at times, but was, for the most part, a tremendous asset to the Astros pitching staff.
But when talking about trading Norris, there are a few things that make me say no to trading Norris at this time.
1. Norris is still a developing pitcher. He utilizes essentially two pitches: A fastball and a slider. And he just learned how to master those two pitches last year and it resulted in him becoming more successful than he was the previous year. I would think that giving Norris another year would allow him to focus on mastering his change-up, which is currently below average. Letting Norris develop another weapon in his arsenal would bring up his trade value.
2. There is no immediate need for another major league player at this moment. Shortstop was obviously a position we needed to fill before yesterday, but that has been solved with the Melancon trade.
3. There really isn’t any compelling reason to trade Norris before trading Wandy. Wandy is a veteran SP and is unlikely to improve over his current skill level. He would be a much better candidate for being traded since he isn’t cheap, and his services would be better utilized on a contending team. Wandy would likely be traded for highly rated low-level prospects, while serving the purpose of lowering payroll.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
Mctaggart on Luhnows first week on the job.
I like the approach Luhnow is taking. Basically, they will be good listeners to any teams offer.
by conroestro on Dec 15, 2011 8:55 PM CST via mobile reply actions
I'm really liking Luhnow
It’s almost as if God is our general manager.
Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it. - Henry Ford
The guy is amazing...
He forces Marion Barber to fumble the ball, then kicks the game-winning FG.
/ESPN
heh
I really think it’s unfortunate because people are hating on Tebow for receiving so much praise when he’s nothing but humble and tries to share it with his teammates.
He is plenty aware that he’d be nowhere without his defense, Matt Prater, Willis McGahee.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 2:10 AM CST up reply actions
Reading that article, I’m struck by the omission of any reference to Bobby Heck. Luhnow says he is talking to player development personnel and to some of the scouts directly. Maybe it’s because Heck isn’t primarily involved in professional scouting, and that’s the momentary priority. But I wonder what Luhnow has said to Heck about his future.
I definitely suspect Luhnow would like to handpick whoever winds up running amateur scouting—that was his job with the Cardinals, as we all know, so he probably wants someone very in line with his thinking. Perhaps even a younger guy he can kind of train for the job and (Luhnow himself) take an active hand in the amateur scouting the first few years.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
If Luhnow decided that Heck was not the person he wanted in place, then how quickly do you think he would make a move in dismissing Heck and bringing in someone new. I know that draft preparation is a year round event so it seems like if Luhnow wanted to replace Heck, and also bring in some of his own choices for scouts that he would have to make that change pretty soon.
I don’t know what to think of Bobby Heck anymore. He came with an impressive background, and I’ll admit that with how quickly Castro made it to the show, and how quickly and effectively Lyles was progressing through the minors I thought it was a great hire. Heck will probably shoulder some of the blame for high round guys like Mier, DeShields, Folty, Austin and more stumbling out of the gate, even though they still possess the upside. We also don’t know how much of Hecks decisions were being made with the mindset of slot recommendations due to Drayton’s reluctance to go over slot.
by conroestro on Dec 16, 2011 12:27 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Considering
I think the Astros a few years away, from an outside perspective I’d advocate this. Norris is good, but not an elite starting pitcher and probably won’t be. He’s valuable because of his team controlled years and the Astros should be able to cash in on that.
Depends on the return obviously, but say the Rangers come calling and offer the Astros Mike Olt, Neil Ramirez, and a C/C+ prospect I’d think long and hard about pulling the trigger.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 12:59 AM CST reply actions
Not really much hurry
Unless you think he’s going to get hurt, which I’ll admit is a possibility worth considering. That’s really the only thing that gives me pause. I’ve always felt he is an above average injury risk. If he remains healthy then there is plenty of time before a decision needs to be made in regards to trading him.
In a year or two, he could have Hunter Pence type value and bring a similar trade return.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
That
is true, but since he’s not a superstar (in my opinion) I think his value will only go down rather than up, and potentially in a sharp manner.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 16, 2011 1:37 AM CST up reply actions
I respectfully disagree
He’s still fairly young to the league. If he continues to put up the numbers and becomes known as the Astros Ace, his value could sky rocket.
by Uncle Chris on Dec 17, 2011 10:50 PM CST up reply actions
His value could definitely improve still. Even if he just put up another season like last year then I’m sure his value would increase because it would improve his track record and show that last year wasn’t a fluke.
The biggest thing that I worry about with Bud is injury. He ended the year with an injury, and it was the same one that sidelined him last year as well.
by conroestro on Dec 18, 2011 9:22 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
No Way!!!!!!
We need pitchers and He is one of the few that we can count on, so WHY trade him. He would not be a good draw for other teams and what we could get for him would not outweigh what he can do for the Astros with the salery that he makes.
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Astros lead the series 1-0
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
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Houston Astros
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. |
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| Sun 05/27 | 3:10 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
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25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
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St. Louis
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25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
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Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
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Pittsburgh
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21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
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Milwaukee
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Chicago
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15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:14 PM CDT)
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