The Melancon Trade (From A Sox Fan)

Is solid, but unspectacular. He can close. But he won’t be Mariano Rivera any time soon.

I disagree with your assessment of both Lowrie and Weiland. Weiland looks like he can be a good back-of-rotation starter, if nothing more, due to his good K/BB numbers. He only pitched 24 innings in the majors last year, so I will completely discount everything he did in the face of some promising career numbers elsewhere.

Lowrie isn’t as injury prone as it looks. Both his wrist surgery and bout with mononucleosis that kept him out of almost 200 games so far in his career aren’t repeatable injury concerns, and his bum shoulder last season was caused by a collision instead of some inherent weakness of the joint. He’s got great power for a shortstop, walks more than anybody else on the Astros’ roster, and defensive metrics grade him as exactly average, not bad.

I think the trade is great for both teams. The Red Sox needed somebody in the back of the bullpen (though I personally think Melancon profiles better as a set-up reliever than a lockdown closer), they had no use for Lowrie with Aviles and Iglesias in the fold, and Weiland was expendable. The Astros had an obvious need for a shortstop and minor league depth with upside.

Both teams got what they wanted. Good trade.

But the guy does not get flustered. He definitely has the ideal closer’s mentality.

Good pitcher. Not a lights out closer by any means, but can get the job done. Throws fastball at about 93 and has a hammer curve. Started working in a cutter as well that had some promise, but he doesn’t command it that well. He gets a good number of ground balls.

He’s a bit more susceptible to lefties though. Which could be concerning at Yankee stadium.

…Have hit the main points on Melancon…..good cutter, although occasionally erratic; decent fastball velocity but a little straight…..good makeup for a late-inning reliever, seems to be able to leave the tough losses behind and get to the next game. Has a high-effort delivery and I believe had some arm problems back in his Yankees days; Astros worked him pretty hard last year, got a lot or work in non-save situations (no explanation required !) including several multiple innings outings. I think his ceiling (at least in the NL East) would be 8th inning setup man; can close occasionally, but I think his stuff is a little short to close consistently in the AL.

I like the deal for both teams; Sox fans have been warning us about Lowrie’s injury problems, but when we consider the alternatives at SS (Angel Sanchez, Brian Bixler) he still feels like a pretty good gamble….plus Weiland could help as well.

… but I noticed that no one has really elaborated on Melancon’s profile sufficiently. He is an extreme groundball pitcher as evidenced by his 56.7% GB rate last season, good for second among qualified closers (behind SEA Brandon League). He’s great at keeping the ball in the park (0.61 HR/9 in 2011), decent with the strikeouts (averaged about 8 K/9 in his short career), and has room for improvement in the walk department (3.15 BB/9 in 2011). His FIP for the last two seasons (3.25 in 2011 & 3.50 in 2010) support his ERA (more or less). Not exactly a power pitcher (92.7 mph avg fastball velocity) but that is complemented nicely by his curve (82.7 mph) and change (84.5 mph). He threw his recently developed cutter last season 11% of the time for a wCT (pitch value) of 3.5 (which ranks second behind Mariano Rivera). It also averages over 92 mph (92.5 mph in 2011). Additionally, his curve pitch value (wCB) was tops in the league last year among closers coming in at 6.0. His fastball and change-up are average to mediocre. He seems to have a pretty even-keeled personality on the mound and doesn’t really get phased. Most of his bad outings were the result of poor bullpen management by Brad Mills, like leaving Melancon in for 2 PLUS innings on several occasions. Overall, a successful, if not spectacular, closer with no major red flags or issues.

i thought melancon was very good….like a bulldog….he has an arsenal of pitches and good control…..i think he is a starter ….which the yanquis had him pegged for at one time…. he is going to be useful to redsox…might not close…but he was a good closer last year…few opportunities on a 105 loss team….95 mph….mike h

astros are rebuilding… they picked up a rule 5 ss from the cubbies…he was a young AAA player… good stats…. blocked by cubbies ss…. lowrie??? did not need him…and astros have stocked up on a bunch of pitching prospects…most of them look better than the guy redsox sent over… i think astros will go into season with brettmyers and wandy rodriquez…that is ok… watch the astros…i think they might be pretty good…at end of last yr…they were kicking ass…with a very young team…last yr they swept the giants in sf and knocked them out of pennant race…then came home and took 2 of 3 from phillies who were in a pennant race at the time…mike h