TCB Podcast: Top 30 Prospects - Part 3
by Timothy De Block on Nov 3, 2011 8:00 AM CDT
in Podcasts
Email
Print
Sponsored by Leiturgia Communications
TCB Podcast ready and willing to invade your thoughts and tickle your ear drums.
In this episode Sean Feist, and special guest Jayne Hansen who writes for the blog What the Heck, Bobby? Discuss the Astros Minor League prospects and unveil our Top 30 prospects. In the third and final hour we discuss prospects 12 to 1 on our board as well as some other random things including: our ideal shortstop and some how went from Jonathan Singleton to the value of Humberto Quintero.
| Rank | Prospect |
| 12 | Jiovanni Mier |
| 11 | Delino Deshields Jr. |
| 10 | Brett Oberholtzer |
| 9 | Adrian Houser |
| 8 | Austin Wates |
| 7 | Paul Clemens |
| 6 | Ariel Ovando |
| 5 | Jonathan Villar |
| 4 | Domingo Santana |
| 3 | George Springer |
| 2 | Jarred Cosart |
| 1 | Jonathan Singleton |
I would like to again thank Jayne, David and Sean for contributing to the podcast. Our recording was longer than the three hours released, so I appreciate them sticking it out. I would especially like to thank everyone who has downloaded and listened to this and our other podcasts. We've gotten some feedback that I truly appreciate it, because it will allow us to improve future podcasts and especially next years Top 30 podcast. So thank you for that.
I would like to gauge interest for doing a reader Top 30 prospect list using the same grading system. So if you're interested in contributing to a list like this please email us at thecrawfishboxes [at] gmail.com and we'll see about doing a reader rankings. Also we will be releasing a regular podcast next week so send in your questions for that podcast using the same email address.
[iTunes]
[RSS Feed]
62 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Wow, I never thought Id see Delino or Mier that low.
This list looks alot better than lsst november!
If i were Arnold Rothstein id pay Ryan Braun all the money he
wants to stop going on homer streaks against the poor Astros....
am i the only one?
by ccislanders on Nov 3, 2011 8:34 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Big year coming up for Mier; if he doesn’t show massive progress, his stock will plummet. Was surprised to hear he’s likely to start in Corpus.
I’m expecting big things from DDJ. He’d be in my top 10.
Obie’s a hard one to pin down. Should have a high floor, but what’s his ceiling?
Anxious to see if they put Houser in Lexington. If he is slotted there and does well, his stock will skyrocket,.
I didn’t even have Wates in my top 20; he hasn’t shown much power or the ability to play a plus CF. At this point he profiles as a 4th OF. That said, the potential for him to be a plus CF is there.
I had Clemens at #7 as well. Bud Norris redux.
Ovando’s performance lowered his stock a bit, but I still see him in the top 10. Still a LONG way away.
I’d put Villar ahead of Santana. I expect him to blow up this year and turn into a top 50 prospect. Santana could break into the top 100 if he does anything close to what he did after the trade, which I fully expect him to.
Springer appears to have a much higher floor, higher defensive value, and equal ceiling to Singleton, so I had him 2nd. Houston is counting on both in a BIG way as the only 2 star potential hitters in the system.
I had Cosart #1. Lower bust potential and I value aces more highly than power 1Bs. Again, Houston is counting on him in a BIG way as the only ace potential SP in the system.
I question Wates’ capability to be a major league CFer. I noticed that B-Pro’s Goldstein said that Wates “struggles in center field.” That struggle won’t be helped if he makes it to Houston and face’s a bigger CF at MMP. So, I tend to agree with you that Wates most likely projects as a fourth outfielder, though I’m not ready to write off the possibility that he could start in a corner OF spot.
It was his first year as a center fielder, keep in mind
He never played center field in college. Give him some time to learn the position.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It's obvious who the top three prospects in this system are.
But I would rank them:
1. Singleton
2. Springer
3. Cosart
I don’t like Cosart at #1. He has great stuff, but has a nagging inability to put hitters away. For a guy hitting 97-99 mph, with solid secondary pitches, he needs to be missing more bats. The high number of ground balls he induces is nice, but he needs to turn the projections into talent before we can say he has true ace upside.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 3, 2011 9:57 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
*I don’t like Cosart at #2
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 3, 2011 9:57 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m with you
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Nov 3, 2011 10:20 AM CDT up reply actions
Enjoyable podcast
Well done. Three hours, wow.
Seriously.
Our 2010 draft class is looking pretty weak so far.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 3, 2011 12:47 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know. Folty and DDJ are HS players and way too young to write off just yet. Both could take gigantic steps forward this year and it wouldn’t surprise many people. Buchanan looks like he could be a viable starting pitcher. Wates and Bailey are reserve OF at worst. A few relievers have some life and Vince Velasquez’s story has yet to be written. The 3 catchers also have a chance as they all have some good qualities.
If you were to put a gun to my head (please don’t), I’d say the 2010 draft ends up netting a starting 2B (DDJ), 3 mid-rotation starting pitchers (Folty, Buchanan, Velasquez), 3 reserve OFs (Wates, Bailey, Scott), a backup C (Wallace), and 3 good bullpen arms (Shirley, Grills, Chowning).
by Snake Diggity on Nov 3, 2011 1:27 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree that its too early to write anybody off.
But the results haven’t been encouraging so far.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 3, 2011 2:50 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Mier looks weak. DDJ looks meh - has a bit of pop tho. Folty is slow to come around.
KVAs? Do I even have to say it? Telvin, Meyer and Castro had better have damn good seasons.
So far pretty meh all around for one Bobby Heck. -— Bring someone new in.
by YohannDookeyblue on Nov 3, 2011 2:12 PM CDT reply actions
I don't think Bobby Heck is the problem.
We all know Drayton McLane is a notorious penny-pincher when it comes to the draft. Drayton isn’t willing to pony up the ammount of money required to the best available talents in the draft. So, we are left with “over drafts” each year, signability guys like Jason Castro and Mike Kvasnicka.
Heck and Wade can only do so much with the money they are given for the draft. For all we know, Heck really wanted to draft a guy like Zack Cox in 2010, talented but looking for a big bonus, but the economic realities under Drayton pushed them towards taking a cheaper player like Foltynewicz.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 3, 2011 2:59 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Heck might be the guy who identified Cosart, Singleton, Santana, Oberholtzer, Clemens, Ogando, and Springer…for all we know.
However, we were not the ones who drafted them.
It is important to note that while we have a few highly rated prospects, most of them came in trades. Our drafting and talent evaluation staff just simply isn’t as good as other clubs.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
Neither Cozart or Singleton were high draft choices. They are examples of the Phillies’ willingness to spend money over-slot. I’m sure that the Astros knew about them. However, they may not have had an owner willing to go over slot with them. Maybe Drayton is happy that he didn’t have to pay a bonus to get them.
I’m not altogether happy with the state of the Astros’ farm system, particularly with respect to the lack of A level talent. However, I will give Heck credit for the fact that Lyles, Castro, and Martinez have already made it to the majors. To me, the jury’s still out on Heck.
How much money did they throw in the deal? It might have worked out about the same. They pay an even higher premium now, but they’re more likely to be big league players.
From Drayton’s perspective, he was going to end up paying that 2 million anyway. Since Pence had more than 2 million left on his contract, McLane still saved money with the trade. Not that the reasoning makes a lot of baseball sense.
His brain obviously had to leave him, right? He wasn’t always this bad. He set up latin american acadamies and they drafted alright. I mean, think about your grandfather when he was 75.
This process should have been started years ago. Ryan should have replaced Smith and it would have been a perfect transition of ownership. He completely threw the team into a pit that will realistically take 7-10 years to climb out of. That’s inexcusable. For all the good he really did do for baseball in this city, he completely destroyed his legacy.
It seems to me like if they spend the money to get talent overslot, then they would have a good farm system, resulting in a good major league team, and attendance would be much better than it is now, with the extra attendance paying back the investment on prospects and then making some money to get big-name free agents.
The Astros’ penny pinching style of management hasn’t gotten them very far.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
Justin Smoak could be starting this year instead of Wallace. Of course then you have a huge hole at catcher.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Nov 3, 2011 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, but if you spend money in the draft, where is the money for guys like Brian Moehler and Kaz Matsui and Brandon Lyon going to come from. You guys need to think before posting. You would never make it as an Astros GM without overcommitting to below-mediocre veterans.
by seanbergmanrules on Nov 3, 2011 6:26 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Some of those guys are only making the majors because the team is the worst in the league. Do any of them get a promotion on a mediocre team? I can’t give them points for that.
by MadMartygan on Nov 3, 2011 4:52 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought about that before making my comment, and my only conclusion is that it’s impossible to know. It would depend on what the given mediocre team’s weaknesses, injuries, etc., are. But I don’t think that it’s unreasonable to think that Castro and Lyles would make it to the big leagues at some point this year if they were in mediocre organizations with weaknesses at back up catcher or No. 5/6 rotation pitchers. Since those positions generally are weak on most mediocre teams, that could mean they would be playing on several teams. Martinez, I’m not so sure. He probably would be considered a potential bench player on a number of teams.
I suppose that is true, if you put Martinez and Castro in a backup role they are viable big leaguers. I think most teams let Lyles develop a bit more. I don’t want to sound like I dislike these guys as prospects, I don’t. I really like Martinez and Castro has a shot to be above average at his position. I love Lyles, and am loving a comparison to Brad Radke I read somewhere. However, the organization bringing up prospects, saying “these guys have made the big leagues, look at how good of a job we’re doing,” isn’t being entirely honest. They’re still minor league players that are just getting the opportunity due to circumstance.
Between 2007 and 2011 we’re 21st in draft bonuses given. That’s higher than the Braves, Angels, Phillies and Marlins. There’s just always an excuse though.
I dont know about the rest..
but I know the Braves do a very good job in LA… they spend a lot of money there. Now not as much as TB and TEX…
By spending money I do not just mean bonuses, multiple camps in different countries, multiple academies, and a lot of time getting to know the young players and getting them to identify with your organization.
I was talking specifically draft. Beachy, Minor and Kimbrel were all signed in ‘08. Beachy was actually undrafted, but they signed him. Heyward was drafted in ’07. The guys that got them Michael Bourn, Clemens and Oberholtzer, were also taken in the ’08 draft. And yeah they’ve spent less money than us since ‘07, even though we didn’t sign a pick in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round of the ’07 draft.
Too early to harshly judge Heck...
but the picture will start getting clearer next season. Here’re the results his drafts are on pace for:
2008:
Starters: Castro ©, Lyles (SP3)
Reserves: Shuck (OF5), Hicks (RP), Meszaros (RP)
TBD: Austin (CF), Seaton (SP5), Steele (OF4), Gaston (OF4)
I think any draft that nets multiple long term starters is decent, and any draft that has double digit players make MLB appearances is good. At this point this draft is probably a C-.
2009:
Starters: Martinez (LF), Keuchel (SP5)
Reserves: Wikoff (IF), Goebbert (OF4)
TBD: Mier (SS), Meyer (3B), Bushue (SP4), Nash (1B)
Mier and Bushue are the linchpins but it’s too early to tell for sure. At this point I’d lable this draft a C with C- downside and B+ upside.
2010 and 2011 are too fresh to make any reasonable judgement. Nobody’s far enough along to narrow ceilings and floors down to anything concrete.
There’s no context to that. You’re just judging Heck against himself, or the Astros. If you took the 2008 drafts of the other 29 teams are we going to find more or less than a serviceable pitcher and catcher, reserves and a bunch of busts?
I’ve done a very small amount of looking into this before, too lazy to do it again, but I remember coming to the conclusion that 2-3 long term contributors and a handful of reserves/cupofcoffee guys was an average draft. Thus I think given his financial limitations, Heck has done an adequate job (depending on how the HS draftees and ‘10-’11 drafts play out). If Austin and/or Seaton reaches the ceiling, that draft will go from below average to above average. If 2 of Mier/Bushue/Meyer/Nash pan out, I think that draft will be plus as well.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 3, 2011 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions
We aren’t far from average when it comes to bonuses. Like I mentioned earlier, We’re 21st in the league over the last 5 years. We spent 25,162,263 and the average was 31,755,174. That looks bad, but you have to take into account that we signed no top picks in 2007. If you had the couple million, then we’re right in range with the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds.
$1M buys a pretty dang good prospect each year. That adds in a guy like Adam Plutko every year for 5 years. I’m not saying Heck is a genius, I just think it’s too early to write him off as an idiot.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 3, 2011 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Nash will turn into a valuable major league hitter
With the loathsome AL move, I see him fitting in as a 1B man or DH.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
He’s young and he’s got proven power, so the sky is the limit.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 3, 2011 5:29 PM CDT up reply actions
Since when is Castro a long term starter? He’s done jack shit at the major league level. I don’t see people going around labeling Towles a long term starter, so why Castro? Same with Lyles. His age to performance ratio was pretty awesome, but that doesn’t mean you can pencil him into the rotation till 2020. If doesn’t make the next step he is a spot starter.
Basically, you are assuming every player from 2008 and 2009 reaches their potential, and even then, the drafts are mediocre. So when will Heck be inducted to the Hall of Fame?
by seanbergmanrules on Nov 3, 2011 6:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Seriously
Two of our top four prospects were drafted by the Phillies, and they’ve spent less money in the draft than us, in recent years. There has to be some accountability.
I'll give Heck and Wade this much credit...
They look like geniuses compared to Tim f’ing Purpura and his posse of buffoons.
Jason Castro is the worst pick I can think of in recent memory.
He had no business being picked in the top 10…he simply was not a top 10 talent. I know that mock drafts don’t mean much, but every one of them had him going at least the end of the first round. Some had him going in the supplemental round.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 4, 2011 9:44 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I will have that lady know
I am a Dan Adamson fan!
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 3, 2011 7:56 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
"That lady" will have you know
that I don’t have anything against Dan Adamson. He just made a great example for me in trying to understand why someone like Adam Bailey who is a year younger than Dan and had 24 doubles and 24 home runs didn’t even make the list of 76 prospects that were being graded.
With that said, though, I still would have ranked Dallas Keuchel and Jordan Scott higher than Dan Adamson, but Dan hasn’t really been on my radar. I promise I’ll look at him more closely next season!
"Lady"
I hate to even mention my thoughts on Adamson because even saying it in my head I know it won’t sit well. I like Dan for all the reasons I want to like TJ Steele. Plays a good CF (but probably not at MMP), has good power for a CFer, and if he can stay healthy, can maybe put it together?…
I like Dan but I wasn’t seriously going to argue or push my opinion that I like him more than Bailey, Kuechel (who I still pronounce Koo-Chell), or frankly anyone else. I’s juss playin…
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 4, 2011 3:33 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
WTH?!!! NO GRANT HOGUE?!!! Ths list is rigged!!!
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Nov 3, 2011 8:00 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I can't wait till I see this again.
Something about Springer makes me more excited about him than any other Astros prospect.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
I'm a big fan of Springer, as well.
He’s a bit raw for a college player, but he’s got serious upside. He looks like a perennial 20/20 player, with some 30/30 years in there as well.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 4, 2011 9:41 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
You can totally caption the pic on top, lol...
Brad Mills: "……. "
George Springer: “What’s up, Brad?”
Mills: “You’re wearing J-Mike’s number. I’m not talking to you!”
by mike_o on Nov 4, 2011 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I’m a little worried about Springer’s contact ability. After 2010, I saw an analysis suggesting that his college K% significantly reduced his ability to succeed in the majors. To his credit, he reduced his college K rate to a more manageable rate in 2011. But I will be concerned if that problem creeps up again in the minors. Other than that, though, I like his potential and hope that he can stay in CF.
I really do like the Springer pick, however
This is another one of those picks that the baseball skill might not be as great as the physical talent.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on The Crawfish Boxes
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
TCB Tweets!
Current Series
Astros lead the series 1-0
| Fri 05/25 |
WP: Lucas Harrell (4 - 3)
SV: Brett Myers LP: Clayton Kershaw (4 - 2) |
3 - 1 win |
|
Houston Astros
Saturday, May 26, 2012, 9:10 PM CDT Bud Norris vs Chad Billingsley Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. |
||
| Sun 05/27 | 3:10 PM CDT | |
NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cincinnati
|
25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
|
St. Louis
|
25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
|
Houston
|
22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
|
Pittsburgh
|
21 | 24 | .466 | 4 | Won 1 |
|
Milwaukee
|
19 | 26 | .422 | 6 | Won 2 |
|
Chicago
|
15 | 30 | .333 | 10 | Lost 10 |
(updated 5.26.2012 at 6:14 PM CDT)
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
