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TCB Reader Top 30 Prospect List

It's a little late, but here is the results from the TCB Reader Top 30 Prospect list. There were 19 entries into the field with some people ranking 30 prospects and others ranking just a few.

There were some prospects listed on all 19 ballots, but there's also some guys who were listed on just one. To control for the numbers of ballots submitted, I did two things. First of all, I averaged all the scores based on the number of ballots submitted. That way, the average listed is the one for 10, or 5, or 19. 

To make it fair and keep someone like Carlos Quevedo from finishing in the top 3 because he was listed on one ballot with a 7, I also weighted the grades based on how many ballots the players appeared on. To accomplish this, I broke the list up into three sections. I discounted all the players who were only listed on one ballot and then broke the rest of the names up into three sections.

For players who appeared on between 19 to 13 ballots, I weighted their scores by 3, then from 12 to 7 I weighted by 2 and the last group I left on their own, then sorted by the new totals. 

That only caused a problem on two or three of the grades. Telvin Nash and Jack Armstrong could have flip flopped but Nash was listed on more ballots, so he got the tiebreaker. Also, the bottom of the ballot could have turned over, as Dallas Keuchel had the lowest score in the Top 30, but was listed on more ballots than all the ones below him.

Anyways, enough with the hows, let's get to the list. After the jump, I'll have a couple thoughts on how things shook out.

1)  Jonathan Singleton 7.63

2)   Jarred Cosart 7.61

3)   George Springer 7.29

4)   Jonathan Villar 6.00

5)   Domingo Santana 5.44

6)   Paul Clemens 5.33

7)   Ariel Ovando 5.14

8)   Brett Oberholtzer 5.06

9)   Delino Deshields 5.00

10)   Mike Foltynewciz 4.94

11)   Adrian Houser 4.92

12)   Austin Wates 4.69

13)   Telvin Nash 4.31

14)   Jack Armstrong 4.58

15)   Vincent Velasquez 4.00

16)   Chris Wallace 3.83

17)   Jiovanni Mier 3.75

18)   Nicholas Tropeano 3.70

19)   Tanner Bushue 3.67

20)   Kody Hinze 3.58

21)   Jacob Goebbert 3.55

22)   Ross Seaton 3.45

23)   Mike Kvasnicka 3.44

24)   Adam Bailey 3.38

25)   Jonathan Meyer 3.38

26)   Dallas Keuchel 3.27

27)   Dan Adamson 4.00

28)   Kyle Hallock 3.83

29)   Jay Austin 3.75

30)   Josh Zeid 3.67      

Star-divide

The top didn't change much, as Singleton, Cosart and Springer were in the same order as our TCB list. 

From there on, it was mainly just changing the deck chairs around a bit. Jio Mier was much lower than on our list as was Austin Wates, while Brett Oberholtzer was higher. Ross Seaton also showed up much higher because he was listed on so many ballots. He's probably pretty firmly graded there as a Type C guy and may bend up to C+ if he takes a step forward next year.

Nice to see Adam Bailey get corrected onto the list. He's pretty well ranked there, since there are a ton of Type C guys that are all pretty evenly clustered.

Other than that, it's a great list and a big thanks to everyone who submitted ballots.

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Very nice list

Good job with the weighting. I was a bit nervous about that, but it looks like you handled it really really well.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 17, 2011 6:53 PM CST reply actions  

Most notable differences b/w this list and the podcast list...

1) Kyle Hallock – 17th on the podcast list and 28th on the reader list. His average score of those that listed him was fairly high – he’d be ahead of Mier according to those that listed Hallock – but apparently a lot of people did not list him at all (myself included and I listed 30 players). I’m not exactly sure why most readers left him off, but I just see him as a guy with 10th round stuff showing that he was worthy of a 10th round pick, maybe a little better than that, but not by much. He’s new and had a fine year against hitters that were way younger than him, but he’s not someone I’m excited about at this point.

2) Ross Seaton – not ranked in the top 33 of the podcast list, but 22nd on the reader list. I actually think 22nd is about perfect for Seaton. This is obvious a stats vs scouting difference, and while even the scouting reports aren’t glowing, he does have decent stuff if he can put it all together.

3) Telvin Nash – 21st in the podcast list, 13th in the readers list. I had him ranked somewhere in between, but he’s been getting some love lately from baseball america (10th) and baseball prospectus (6th). I think 13th is probably more accurate, as they are probably seeing/hearing some positive things that might mitigate the K rate a bit. He actually isn’t even as bad a K artist as Domingo Santana (it is arguable either way though), and probably has more power (also arguable). I’d have him still behind Jiovanni Mier, placing him around 15th on my list (I’m pretty sure I ranked him lower than that).

4) Jacob Goebbert – he was 14th on the podcast list and 21st on the reader list. I think the difference probably comes from a lot of apathy for the players that were ranked between them on the part of the podcast voters, instead of a real love for Goebbert by the podcast voters. I listed to the podcast, but forget if people were super high on Goebbert and thought he’d be an everyday player, or if they just didn’t believe in the guys ranked directly below him.

I guess I find myself more in line with the readers list, but maybe that is because my votes influenced that list. I do prefer the podcast ranking of Mier to the readers list ranking, as I think he is still a fairly strong prospect (C+ but a good one). I’d have him a bit lower, but that is because I like Folty and Armstrong quite a bit. 17th on the readers list is just too low for me, but I suppose the difference is pretty marginal.

by auclairkeithbc on Nov 18, 2011 1:22 PM CST reply actions  

Baseball America

….has released its Astros’ Top 10 prospects. This BBTF thread shows the top 10, along with an excerpt.

by clack on Nov 18, 2011 3:17 PM CST reply actions  

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