TCB Reader Top 30 Prospect List
It's a little late, but here is the results from the TCB Reader Top 30 Prospect list. There were 19 entries into the field with some people ranking 30 prospects and others ranking just a few.
There were some prospects listed on all 19 ballots, but there's also some guys who were listed on just one. To control for the numbers of ballots submitted, I did two things. First of all, I averaged all the scores based on the number of ballots submitted. That way, the average listed is the one for 10, or 5, or 19.
To make it fair and keep someone like Carlos Quevedo from finishing in the top 3 because he was listed on one ballot with a 7, I also weighted the grades based on how many ballots the players appeared on. To accomplish this, I broke the list up into three sections. I discounted all the players who were only listed on one ballot and then broke the rest of the names up into three sections.
For players who appeared on between 19 to 13 ballots, I weighted their scores by 3, then from 12 to 7 I weighted by 2 and the last group I left on their own, then sorted by the new totals.
That only caused a problem on two or three of the grades. Telvin Nash and Jack Armstrong could have flip flopped but Nash was listed on more ballots, so he got the tiebreaker. Also, the bottom of the ballot could have turned over, as Dallas Keuchel had the lowest score in the Top 30, but was listed on more ballots than all the ones below him.
Anyways, enough with the hows, let's get to the list. After the jump, I'll have a couple thoughts on how things shook out.
1) Jonathan Singleton 7.63
2) Jarred Cosart 7.61
3) George Springer 7.29
4) Jonathan Villar 6.00
5) Domingo Santana 5.44
6) Paul Clemens 5.33
7) Ariel Ovando 5.14
8) Brett Oberholtzer 5.06
9) Delino Deshields 5.00
10) Mike Foltynewciz 4.94
11) Adrian Houser 4.92
12) Austin Wates 4.69
13) Telvin Nash 4.31
14) Jack Armstrong 4.58
15) Vincent Velasquez 4.00
16) Chris Wallace 3.83
17) Jiovanni Mier 3.75
18) Nicholas Tropeano 3.70
19) Tanner Bushue 3.67
20) Kody Hinze 3.58
21) Jacob Goebbert 3.55
22) Ross Seaton 3.45
23) Mike Kvasnicka 3.44
24) Adam Bailey 3.38
25) Jonathan Meyer 3.38
26) Dallas Keuchel 3.27
27) Dan Adamson 4.00
28) Kyle Hallock 3.83
29) Jay Austin 3.75
30) Josh Zeid 3.67
The top didn't change much, as Singleton, Cosart and Springer were in the same order as our TCB list.
From there on, it was mainly just changing the deck chairs around a bit. Jio Mier was much lower than on our list as was Austin Wates, while Brett Oberholtzer was higher. Ross Seaton also showed up much higher because he was listed on so many ballots. He's probably pretty firmly graded there as a Type C guy and may bend up to C+ if he takes a step forward next year.
Nice to see Adam Bailey get corrected onto the list. He's pretty well ranked there, since there are a ton of Type C guys that are all pretty evenly clustered.
Other than that, it's a great list and a big thanks to everyone who submitted ballots.
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I didn't vote but this looks remarkably similar to how I'd rank our prospects
With the biggest exception being that I think Springer may well be the best of the top three prospects, as opposed to the worst.
I would characterize most of my other complaints as quibbles. The only prospect which is more than 2 or 3 places away from where I’d rank him is Chris Wallace, who I think is closer to the 25th best prospect on this list than the 16th.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 15, 2011 10:41 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
I also want to add
7 = B+, 6 = B, 5 = B- then I think the letter grades look about right too. Maybe just a shade too strong on the top 4 (excepting Springer).
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 15, 2011 10:44 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I had that same impression.
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by Timothy De Block on Nov 15, 2011 10:45 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Good stuff.
I think Jake Buchanan definitely belongs somewhere on that list. Other than that, not much worth arguing over.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 15, 2011 10:54 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
glad to see that Hinze is about where he should be right now. He needs to prove himself
in AA this year to be considered for even having a shot in Houston in the future.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Nov 15, 2011 10:59 AM CST reply actions 1 recs
Unrelated
But Heyman, whose Twitter shall not be linked here, just said he’s heard rumors that Crane may spend on “a free agent or 2”.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 15, 2011 12:00 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Sounds like a PR move.
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by Timothy De Block on Nov 15, 2011 12:03 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
He definitely needs a PR move for the roster (given how much flack he will take from the fan base); so that wouldn’t surprise me. The interesting question is who? Reasonably priced free agents probably don’t created PR interest, but those that would likely are too expensive.
by clack on Nov 15, 2011 12:44 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Cespedes or Darvish would be cool
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
by OremLK on Nov 15, 2011 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Cespedes could make sense, since he’d probably still be around and/or peaking when the ’stros have a chance to be competitive.
The only other ones I could see would be Oswalt (Astros legend), Reyes (best player at need position) or Pujols (best player ever).
I could also see him bringing back Miguel Tejada.
Whatever he does, he needs to get some help at catcher (Doumit, Schneider, Shoppach, Snyder) and shorstop (Barmes, Betancourt, Furcal, Gonzalez, Hairston). In a big way.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 15, 2011 2:39 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Darvish would be very cool.
by conroestro on Nov 15, 2011 2:56 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
No Darvish please
Too expensive!
His potential contract/posting fee is far too rich for my blood on an unknown commodity.
The risk outweighs the reward by a hefty margin in my book.
*But I do like watching him pitch, looks good, (against foreigners)
by baggs on Nov 16, 2011 6:08 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I only want Cespedes if he will squat a car
Before every game. It would be fun to get one or both of those guys and they’re young enough to make sense.
by ntn on Nov 15, 2011 11:39 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
So....Joe Thurston and Travis Buck?
by CRPerry13 on Nov 15, 2011 12:15 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson, obviously.
The bird is struggling out of the egg. The egg is the world. Whoever wants to be born, must first destroy a world.
by Stupendous Man on Nov 15, 2011 12:44 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
hopefully a pitcher
A 1,2,3 of CJ Wilson, Cosart, and Bud Norris four 4 years wouldn’t be terrible.
by lawson3 on Nov 15, 2011 1:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
hopefully a pitcher
A 1,2,3 of CJ Wilson, Cosart, and Bud Norris for 4 years wouldn’t be terrible.
by lawson3 on Nov 15, 2011 1:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
The simple fact that Jay Austin didnt make the top 10
Makes this whole list absurd! Sarcasm font not available.
I want to see Ovando and Santana play next to each other at some point during their minor league careers. Until then I won’t be sure which one higher than the other.
If we can trade Wandy for Pomeranz (I pray this happens) we’ll need another SP or two. If Crane does want to get a FA that would be the way to go IMO
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 15, 2011 4:09 PM CST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
WHERE THE HECK IS GRANT HOGUE?!!!!!!! LIST IS RIGGED DARN IT!!!!
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
by StrosSouth on Nov 15, 2011 4:11 PM CST reply actions 2 recs
Very nice list
Good job with the weighting. I was a bit nervous about that, but it looks like you handled it really really well.
Most notable differences b/w this list and the podcast list...
1) Kyle Hallock – 17th on the podcast list and 28th on the reader list. His average score of those that listed him was fairly high – he’d be ahead of Mier according to those that listed Hallock – but apparently a lot of people did not list him at all (myself included and I listed 30 players). I’m not exactly sure why most readers left him off, but I just see him as a guy with 10th round stuff showing that he was worthy of a 10th round pick, maybe a little better than that, but not by much. He’s new and had a fine year against hitters that were way younger than him, but he’s not someone I’m excited about at this point.
2) Ross Seaton – not ranked in the top 33 of the podcast list, but 22nd on the reader list. I actually think 22nd is about perfect for Seaton. This is obvious a stats vs scouting difference, and while even the scouting reports aren’t glowing, he does have decent stuff if he can put it all together.
3) Telvin Nash – 21st in the podcast list, 13th in the readers list. I had him ranked somewhere in between, but he’s been getting some love lately from baseball america (10th) and baseball prospectus (6th). I think 13th is probably more accurate, as they are probably seeing/hearing some positive things that might mitigate the K rate a bit. He actually isn’t even as bad a K artist as Domingo Santana (it is arguable either way though), and probably has more power (also arguable). I’d have him still behind Jiovanni Mier, placing him around 15th on my list (I’m pretty sure I ranked him lower than that).
4) Jacob Goebbert – he was 14th on the podcast list and 21st on the reader list. I think the difference probably comes from a lot of apathy for the players that were ranked between them on the part of the podcast voters, instead of a real love for Goebbert by the podcast voters. I listed to the podcast, but forget if people were super high on Goebbert and thought he’d be an everyday player, or if they just didn’t believe in the guys ranked directly below him.
I guess I find myself more in line with the readers list, but maybe that is because my votes influenced that list. I do prefer the podcast ranking of Mier to the readers list ranking, as I think he is still a fairly strong prospect (C+ but a good one). I’d have him a bit lower, but that is because I like Folty and Armstrong quite a bit. 17th on the readers list is just too low for me, but I suppose the difference is pretty marginal.
Baseball America
….has released its Astros’ Top 10 prospects. This BBTF thread shows the top 10, along with an excerpt.

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