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Off Season League Updates for Astros

This is my second time for posting an update on Arizona  / Carribean fall and winter league stats for Astros' players.  All of the usual caveats about sample size and quality of competition apply.  The sample sizes for hitters are beginning to raise our level of interest.  The sample sizes for pitchers are still fairly small.

Jose Altuve continues to be the most prolific hitter among Astros' off-season stars.  The guy has great contact skill, and if he faces mediocre pitching, he can show off eye popping, high-.300's batting averages, like his current .375 average. He also has exhibited good doubles pop, which isn't surprising. However, off-season leagues tend to have lessor pitching, since teams will protect their best pitchers from overuse.  The question for Altuve will continue to be his ability to translate his batting skill into similar performance against high quality major league pitching.  Some of the commenters at TCB have suggested that Altuve's excellent contact skill works against him at the major league level, because his confidence about hitting everything hinders his selectivity.  I'm not sure, but there may be something to that.  In the winter league, Altuve continues to show the low walk and strike out rates we have seen in his brief exposure to the majors league.  It may well be that a better metric for evaluating his future improvement will be "pitches seen" rather than BB% and K%.  In any event, Jose is putting up some good offensive numbers in Venezuela.

Brian Bogusevic is also in an offensive groove.  Both his OBP (.405) and SLG (.516) are in admirable territory.  I recall when Luke Scott's rise to the major leagues was foretold by a scorching OPS in Venezuelan winter ball.  We can hope that Bogey's strong Dominican campaign presages a similar leap in his major league performance.

Brett Wallace has one of the strangest slash lines of the off-season: .188, .385, .354, .739.  A 200 point differential between his batting average and on base average is (take your pick): (1) awesome; or (2) terrible.    Both his walk rate and K rate are astoundingly high.  A low .700's OPS is not where we want to see a first baseman.  Glass half full: he is showing great on base skill.  Glass half empty: why doesn't he show more power?

Kody Hinze is the only Astros' hitter with noteworthy stats in the Arizona Fall League.  His three HRs, which lead Astros' off-season hitters, are accompanied by a high OBP.   The blemish on his performance is the high K rate.  One can hope that the high K rate is an artifact of the sample size. 

There is less to report on the pitching side.  Sergio Perez continues to impress as a starting pitcher.   He has allowed only 19 hits, with no HRs, in 28 innings.  Aneury Rodriguez has been reasonably successful as a starter, with a 1.11 WHIP and 15 Ks in 18 IP.  However, he has been hurt by 4 HRs.  Although he isn't shown below, due to small sample size, David Carpenter has pitched fairly well in relief with a 3.86 ERA.

Below, the hitters are ordered by OPS and the pitchers are ordered by ERA.

Star-divide

(Note: K% and BB% are based on at bats which can produce a slightly higher rate than per PA)

Hitter (min. 25 AB)

AB

OBP

OPS

K%

BB%








Altuve


80

0.402

0.94

11%

5%

Bogusevic


64

0.405

0.921

23%

14%

Hinze *


64

0.361

0.83

28%

13%

Paredes


67

0.351

0.754

30%

9%

Wallace


48

0.385

0.739

29%

31%

Goebbert*


66

0.277

0.657

20%

9%

Austin*


35

0.333

0.619

17%

17%

* for AFL







Pitcher (min. 14 IP)

IP

ERA

K

BB







Perez


28

2.89

23

12

An. Rodriguez

18.2

4.34

15

3

Keuchel *


24.1

5.55

16

1

Zeid*


14

6.43

17

9

Stoffel*


14.1

8.79

15

16

* for AFL






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I’m happy with what Bogey has done over there. Hope he has a good year next year. I wish Wallace would show a lot more.

As far as pitching goes Perez is still striking out people at a decent rate. Keuchel looks like he has kind of struggled.

by conroestro on Nov 11, 2011 8:32 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

Question

I am actually traveling and working in the Phoenix Arizona area next week and was wondering if anyone knew exactly where in AZ the Salt River team plays. I was going to try and catch some games down there if possible.

I 0plan on looking it up, but just wondering if anyone knew off hand.

by conroestro on Nov 11, 2011 8:35 AM CST via mobile reply actions  

Great update, thanks. It’s annoying to go searching the various websites to find this information – great to see it collected here with a little bit of editorial thrown in.

For the record, on Wallace I vote that his +200 OBP is awesome, but his lack of power is equally not awesome.

by CRPerry13 on Nov 11, 2011 9:17 AM CST reply actions  

way off topic but

https://mobile.twitter.com/#!/JSalisburyCSN/status/135078864656416769

I thought the Phillies were re-signing Massing, but now it looks like Papelbon will be there guy. Surprising.

by conroestro on Nov 11, 2011 2:28 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

Disregard twitter link

Disregard link and comment. I completely messed it up.

 http://m.mlb.com/news/article/2011111125957264/

Surprised that the Phillies went after Papelbon. It seemed like they were going to bring back Madson.

by conroestro on Nov 11, 2011 2:31 PM CST via mobile up reply actions  

Yes, it is a shock because it was reported earlier this week that the Phillies had re-signed Madsen. Apparently Boras, Madsen’s agent, hadn’t agreed to the deal—not sure what happened, whether poor reporting or last minute blow up—and the Phillies turned to Papelbon.

For the record, I don’t like the deal that the Phillies signed. I think Papelbon may be OK for a year or two, but I think it’s risky to sign him for 4 years. And they are paying him a premium annual salary, in the range of $12 million, which is at the upper end of what closers earn. I view Papelbon as a high risk closer anyway. He doesn’t have the velocity he once had, and he can have bumpy seasons.

by clack on Nov 11, 2011 4:59 PM CST up reply actions  

Those are brutal comments about Amaro and this decisions. I was amused by someone’s comment about the only positive: “I want to see Papelbon do crazy sh**t with Pence.”

That comment was below a posted video of Papelbon dancing a jig with the crazy goggles on his head.

by clack on Nov 11, 2011 10:41 PM CST up reply actions  

altuve and wallace

altuve…geez, he needs to be more selective…he swings at everything…so what, he makes contact,,,it is bad contact..results in outs…he plain needs to learn to hit…in the broad sense.. his defense is not that good. range is not large. will it ever be? inre wallace, i would just stick with this hitter…he has massive power..one of the strongest players i have ever seen…he is methodical..and is figuring out major league pitching…get him lots of at bats…hitting in venezueala isnt helping him …. bogusevic..another serioushitter with power potential..good athlete…cannon throwing arm…anuery is not a very good pitcher…sergio is…astro team is looking good.. we will continue rebuild in 2012.. but will be 2nd phase…and we will be a .500 team…mike h

by Mike HJALM on Nov 15, 2011 10:17 AM CST reply actions  

rebuilding

if we are rebuilding…do it right… do not sign barmes…bring up villar now…trade myers…maybe wandy also… in 2012 bring up young guys….see how they do….dont waste playing time on guys who are not going to help in future….mike h

by Mike HJALM on Nov 15, 2011 10:19 AM CST reply actions  

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