FanPost

2011 Astros, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Astros 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Astros games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4238 which translates to an expected win total of 68.66 games.  If you take the output from my daily simulations you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4254 or 68.93 wins.  The Astros actually went 56-106 on the season.  So the good news (if you can call it that) is that the Astros likely played a dozen or so wins below their true talent level.  Or on the flip side maybe both Vegas and my simulator were too slow/stubborn in adjusting to how bad the Astros were.  Either way, the one certainty was that the Astros were a good team to bet against in 2011.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Astros were the largest favorite to win.

RankDateAway SPHome SPAwayHomeFaveFave Win PercHOU Win PercSim HOU Win PercWinning TeamAway RunsHome RunsTotal Runs
1 09-23-2011 Drew Pomeranz Brett Myers COL HOU HOU 57.265 57.265 57.53 HOU 2 11 13
2 08-29-2011 Ross Ohlendorf Wandy Rodriguez PIT HOU HOU 55.654 55.654 56.733 HOU 4 7 11
3 07-17-2011 Kevin Correia Wandy Rodriguez PIT HOU HOU 55.357 55.357 56.327 PIT 7 5 12
4 08-17-2011 Casey Coleman Bud Norris CHN HOU HOU 54.442 54.442 53.405 HOU 3 4 7
5 07-16-2011 Paul Maholm Bud Norris PIT HOU HOU 53.811 53.811 56.393 HOU 4 6 10
6 09-22-2011 Alex White Henry Sosa COL HOU HOU 53.596 53.596 43.28 HOU 6 9 15
7 05-28-2011 Zach Duke Bud Norris ARI HOU HOU 53.271 53.271 58.127 ARI 11 3 14
8 04-17-2011 Clayton Richard Brett Myers SD HOU HOU 53.162 53.162 46.759 SD 8 6 14
9 06-14-2011 Jeff Karstens Bud Norris PIT HOU HOU 53.162 53.162 56 PIT 1 0 1
10 04-12-11 James Russell Brett Myers CHN HOU HOU 52.941 52.941 54.431 HOU 2 11 13
11 09-24-2011 Jason Hammel J.A. Happ COL HOU HOU 52.941 52.941 46.49 COL 4 2 6
12 04-14-2011 Dustin Moseley Bud Norris SD HOU HOU 52.607 52.607 47.946 HOU 0 1 1
13 06-25-2011 Wade Davis Bud Norris TB HOU HOU 52.494 52.494 53.5 TB 7 2 9
14 07-20-2011 Livan Hernandez Brett Myers WAS HOU HOU 52.494 52.494 49.48 HOU 2 3 5
15 06-15-2011 Charlie Morton J.A. Happ PIT HOU HOU 52.267 52.267 51.285 PIT 7 3 10
16 06-16-2011 James McDonald Jordan Lyles PIT HOU HOU 51.574 51.574 49.211 PIT 5 4 9
17 09-25-2011 Kevin Millwood Lucas Harrell COL HOU HOU 51.574 51.574 42.068 COL 19 3 22
18 04-15-2011 Aaron Harang J.A. Happ SD HOU HOU 51.338 51.338 50.53 SD 4 2 6
19 07-15-2011 Jeff Karstens Brett Myers PIT HOU HOU 50.86 50.86 53.573 PIT 4 0 4
20 05-13-2011 Dillon Gee Bud Norris NYN HOU HOU 50.739 50.739 56.658 NYN 6 4 10
21 07-18-2011 Jason Marquis Jordan Lyles WAS HOU WAS 50.249 49.751 47.495 WAS 5 3 8
22 04-09-11 Javier Vazquez Bud Norris FLA HOU FLA 50.617 49.383 53.559 FLA 7 5 12
23 06-09-11 Lance Lynn J.A. Happ STL HOU STL 51.1 48.9 47.698 STL 9 2 11
24 09-09-11 Bud Norris Tommy Milone HOU WAS WAS 51.574 48.426 41.18 WAS 3 4 7
25 04-10-11 Anibal Sanchez J.A. Happ FLA HOU FLA 51.807 48.193 48.183 HOU 1 7 8
26 04-13-2011 Carlos Zambrano Wandy Rodriguez CHN HOU CHN 51.807 48.193 53.801 CHN 9 5 14
27 05-14-2011 R.A. Dickey J.A. Happ NYN HOU NYN 51.807 48.193 49 HOU 3 7 10
28 06-11-11 Mike Minor Jordan Lyles ATL HOU ATL 51.923 48.077 52.797 ATL 6 3 9
29 08-21-2011 Dan Runzler Henry Sosa SF HOU SF 52.038 47.962 48.068 SF 6 4 10
30 05-11-11 Edinson Volquez Wandy Rodriguez CIN HOU CIN 52.267 47.733 51.234 HOU 3 4 7
31 04-08-11 Ricky Nolasco Wandy Rodriguez FLA HOU FLA 52.381 47.619 56.118 FLA 4 3 7
32 05-07-11 Bud Norris Charlie Morton HOU PIT PIT 52.719 47.281 50.042 PIT 1 6 7
33 05-27-2011 Daniel Hudson Brett Myers ARI HOU ARI 52.719 47.281 42.813 ARI 7 6 13
34 07-23-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Randy Wells HOU CHN CHN 52.719 47.281 46.63 CHN 1 5 6
35 08-31-2011 James McDonald J.A. Happ PIT HOU PIT 52.719 47.281 51.235 HOU 0 2 2
36 08-02-11 Homer Bailey Wandy Rodriguez CIN HOU CIN 52.941 47.059 49.197 CIN 5 1 6
37 05-06-11 Wandy Rodriguez Paul Maholm HOU PIT PIT 52.941 47.059 44.106 HOU 3 2 5
38 08-01-11 Bronson Arroyo Bud Norris CIN HOU CIN 53.052 46.948 52.377 HOU 3 4 7
39 05-15-2011 Chris Capuano Aneury Rodriguez NYN HOU NYN 53.052 46.948 45.555 NYN 7 4 11
40 07-06-11 Bud Norris Charlie Morton HOU PIT PIT 53.162 46.838 48.631 HOU 8 2 10
41 04-30-2011 Randy Wolf Wandy Rodriguez MIL HOU MIL 53.271 46.729 56.062 HOU 1 2 3
42 06-02-11 Bud Norris Tim Stauffer HOU SD SD 53.488 46.512 43.705 HOU 7 4 11
43 08-15-2011 Rodrigo Lopez Henry Sosa CHN HOU CHN 53.596 46.404 46.462 CHN 4 3 7
44 08-30-2011 Charlie Morton Henry Sosa PIT HOU PIT 53.596 46.404 42.883 HOU 2 8 10
45 07-05-11 Wandy Rodriguez Jeff Karstens HOU PIT PIT 53.811 46.189 51.344 PIT 1 5 6
46 05-25-2011 Ted Lilly Aneury Rodriguez LAN HOU LAN 53.811 46.189 47.577 HOU 1 2 3
47 05-01-11 Chris Narveson Bud Norris MIL HOU MIL 53.917 46.083 51.778 HOU 0 5 5
48 06-30-2011 Matt Harrison Wandy Rodriguez TEX HOU TEX 54.233 45.767 43.199 HOU 0 7 7
49 06-03-11 J.A. Happ Dustin Moseley HOU SD SD 54.442 45.558 47.561 SD 1 3 4
50 05-24-2011 Chad Billingsley J.A. Happ LAN HOU LAN 54.442 45.558 45.314 LAN 5 4 9
51 08-03-11 Dontrelle Willis Jordan Lyles CIN HOU CIN 54.649 45.351 47.808 HOU 4 5 9
52 05-29-2011 Josh Collmenter J.A. Happ ARI HOU ARI 54.853 45.147 46.044 ARI 4 2 6
53 06-13-2011 Derek Lowe Wandy Rodriguez ATL HOU ATL 54.853 45.147 54.653 HOU 3 8 11
54 07-01-11 Tim Wakefield Bud Norris BOS HOU BOS 55.056 44.944 49.546 BOS 7 5 12
55 04-19-2011 Wandy Rodriguez John Niese HOU NYN NYN 55.056 44.944 44.321 HOU 6 1 7
56 04-21-2011 J.A. Happ Chris Capuano HOU NYN NYN 55.056 44.944 39.828 NYN 1 9 10
57 04-11-11 Ryan Dempster Neslon Figueroa CHN HOU CHN 55.157 44.843 44.097 CHN 5 4 9
58 06-18-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Rubby DeLaRosa HOU LAN LAN 55.157 44.843 48.717 HOU 7 0 7
59 06-07-11 Jake Westbrook Brett Myers STL HOU STL 55.257 44.743 40.917 STL 7 4 11
60 06-24-2011 James Shields Wandy Rodriguez TB HOU TB 55.257 44.743 47.986 TB 5 1 6
61 08-16-2011 Ryan Dempster Brett Myers CHN HOU CHN 55.257 44.743 42.436 HOU 5 6 11
62 05-23-2011 Clayton Kershaw Bud Norris LAN HOU LAN 55.457 44.543 48.412 HOU 3 4 7
63 05-09-11 Travis Wood Aneury Rodriguez CIN HOU CIN 55.654 44.346 40.202 CIN 6 1 7
64 06-01-11 Brett Myers Doug Davis HOU CHN CHN 55.85 44.15 40.657 HOU 3 1 4
65 04-26-2011 Jaime Garcia Bud Norris STL HOU STL 55.85 44.15 38.86 HOU 5 6 11
66 05-22-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Kyle Drabek HOU TOR TOR 55.85 44.15 48.901 HOU 3 2 5
67 07-07-11 J.A. Happ Brad Hand HOU FLA FLA 56.044 43.956 45.091 FLA 0 5 5
68 04-29-2011 Shaun Marcum Brett Myers MIL HOU MIL 56.044 43.956 51.506 MIL 5 0 5
69 06-26-2011 Jeff Niemann J.A. Happ TB HOU TB 56.044 43.956 48.687 TB 14 10 24
70 07-04-11 Brett Myers Paul Maholm HOU PIT PIT 56.14 43.86 42.973 PIT 3 5 8
71 04-27-2011 Kyle Lohse J.A. Happ STL HOU STL 56.236 43.764 35.95 STL 6 5 11
72 05-08-11 J.A. Happ James McDonald HOU PIT PIT 56.332 43.668 44.98 PIT 4 5 9
73 05-10-11 Homer Bailey Brett Myers CIN HOU CIN 56.332 43.668 46.586 CIN 7 3 10
74 09-10-11 Wandy Rodriguez John Lannan HOU WAS WAS 56.427 43.573 40.196 HOU 9 3 12
75 09-03-11 Chris Narveson Bud Norris MIL HOU MIL 56.522 43.478 45.787 MIL 8 2 10
76 04-28-2011 Kyle McClellan Neslon Figueroa STL HOU STL 56.803 43.197 41.119 STL 11 7 18
77 09-07-11 J.A. Happ Brian Burres HOU PIT PIT 56.989 43.011 42.59 PIT 4 5 9
78 08-19-2011 Ryan Vogelsong Wandy Rodriguez SF HOU SF 56.989 43.011 47.438 HOU 0 6 6
79 06-29-2011 Colby Lewis Brett Myers TEX HOU TEX 57.356 42.644 41.137 TEX 3 2 5
80 04-07-11 Brett Myers Sam LeCure HOU CIN CIN 57.447 42.553 41.848 HOU 3 2 5
81 07-10-11 Wandy Rodriguez Chris Volstad HOU FLA FLA 57.447 42.553 46.906 FLA 4 5 9
82 07-02-11 Andrew Miller J.A. Happ BOS HOU BOS 57.537 42.463 46.002 BOS 10 4 14
83 08-12-11 Bud Norris Nathan Eovaldi HOU LAN LAN 57.895 42.105 42.893 LAN 0 1 1
84 09-21-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Bronson Arroyo HOU CIN CIN 57.983 42.017 38.35 CIN 0 2 2
85 08-06-11 Chris Narveson Brett Myers MIL HOU MIL 58.071 41.929 44.156 MIL 7 5 12
86 07-08-11 Jordan Lyles Javier Vazquez HOU FLA FLA 58.071 41.929 43.169 FLA 3 6 9
87 04-16-2011 Mat Latos Neslon Figueroa SD HOU SD 58.071 41.929 41.896 HOU 3 5 8
88 08-27-2011 Brett Myers Eric Surkamp HOU SF SF 58.071 41.929 41.969 SF 1 2 3
89 07-19-2011 Jordan Zimmerman J.A. Happ WAS HOU WAS 58.246 41.754 44.843 HOU 6 7 13
90 05-30-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Rodrigo Lopez HOU CHN CHN 58.333 41.667 42.788 HOU 12 7 19
91 07-22-2011 Bud Norris Carlos Zambrano HOU CHN CHN 58.42 41.58 42.624 CHN 2 4 6
92 09-18-2011 Brett Myers Ryan Dempster HOU CHN CHN 58.42 41.58 34.88 HOU 3 2 5
93 06-08-11 Jaime Garcia Bud Norris STL HOU STL 58.592 41.408 40.186 HOU 1 4 5
94 09-06-11 Brett Myers Brad Lincoln HOU PIT PIT 58.763 41.237 43.787 HOU 4 1 5
95 09-05-11 Henry Sosa James McDonald HOU PIT PIT 58.932 41.068 37.991 PIT 1 3 4
96 09-17-2011 Henry Sosa Rodrigo Lopez HOU CHN CHN 58.932 41.068 36.91 CHN 1 2 3
97 04-24-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Randy Wolf HOU MIL MIL 59.1 40.9 48.786 MIL 1 4 5
98 05-20-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Jo-Jo Reyes HOU TOR TOR 59.1 40.9 46.556 HOU 5 2 7
99 06-17-2011 Brett Myers Ted Lilly HOU LAN LAN 59.184 40.816 42.138 HOU 7 3 10
100 06-19-2011 Bud Norris Hiroki Kuroda HOU LAN LAN 59.267 40.733 43.278 LAN 0 1 1
101 06-04-11 Aneury Rodriguez Aaron Harang HOU SD SD 59.432 40.568 41.428 SD 3 6 9
102 09-19-2011 J.A. Happ Dontrelle Willis HOU CIN CIN 59.514 40.486 35.17 HOU 3 2 5
103 09-04-11 Shaun Marcum Wandy Rodriguez MIL HOU MIL 59.596 40.404 46.841 MIL 4 0 4
104 05-05-11 Brett Myers Homer Bailey HOU CIN CIN 59.677 40.323 37.357 CIN 10 4 14
105 04-20-2011 Bud Norris R.A. Dickey HOU NYN NYN 59.677 40.323 37.859 HOU 4 3 7
106 04-05-11 J.A. Happ Mike Leake HOU CIN CIN 59.839 40.161 36.239 CIN 2 8 10
107 09-26-2011 Jaime Garcia Wandy Rodriguez STL HOU STL 59.92 40.08 34.871 HOU 4 5 9
108 06-12-11 Tommy Hanson Brett Myers ATL HOU ATL 60 40 46.779 ATL 4 1 5
109 08-24-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Aaron Cook HOU COL COL 60.396 39.604 36.406 COL 6 7 13
110 09-16-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Matt Garza HOU CHN CHN 60.707 39.293 32.631 CHN 3 4 7
111 07-09-11 Brett Myers Ricky Nolasco HOU FLA FLA 60.861 39.139 37.1 FLA 1 6 7
112 04-23-2011 Brett Myers Shaun Marcum HOU MIL MIL 60.861 39.139 41.831 HOU 9 6 15
113 05-17-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Derek Lowe HOU ATL ATL 60.938 39.063 41.867 ATL 1 3 4
114 08-20-2011 Madison Bumgarner Jordan Lyles SF HOU SF 61.165 38.835 36.24 HOU 5 7 12
115 09-20-2011 Bud Norris Homer Bailey HOU CIN CIN 61.39 38.61 36.48 CIN 4 6 10
116 06-10-11 Tim Hudson Aneury Rodriguez ATL HOU ATL 61.686 38.314 45.456 ATL 11 4 15
117 08-07-11 Zach Greinke Bud Norris MIL HOU MIL 61.977 38.023 41.76 MIL 7 3 10
118 06-05-11 Jordan Lyles Mat Latos HOU SD SD 62.049 37.951 39.417 SD 2 7 9
119 06-28-2011 C.J. Wilson Jordan Lyles TEX HOU TEX 62.049 37.951 33.64 TEX 7 3 10
120 07-26-2011 Brett Myers Jake Westbrook HOU STL STL 62.049 37.951 34.993 STL 1 3 4
121 09-27-2011 Jake Westbrook Henry Sosa STL HOU STL 62.049 37.951 35.5 STL 13 6 19
122 05-19-2011 J.A. Happ Kyle McClellan HOU STL STL 62.193 37.807 37.18 STL 2 4 6
123 05-31-2011 Jordan Lyles Carlos Zambrano HOU CHN CHN 62.193 37.807 35.234 HOU 7 3 10
124 09-12-11 Roy Oswalt Brett Myers PHI HOU PHI 62.335 37.665 37.686 HOU 1 5 6
125 07-24-2011 Jordan Lyles Matt Garza HOU CHN CHN 62.477 37.523 33.465 CHN 4 5 9
126 08-11-11 Brett Myers Joe Saunders HOU ARI ARI 62.617 37.383 38.404 ARI 5 8 13
127 05-18-2011 Bud Norris Kyle Lohse HOU STL STL 62.617 37.383 35.44 STL 1 5 6
128 06-20-2011 J.A. Happ Derek Holland HOU TEX TEX 62.617 37.383 27.966 TEX 3 8 11
129 08-08-11 Wandy Rodriguez Daniel Hudson HOU ARI ARI 62.894 37.106 32.688 HOU 9 1 10
130 08-23-2011 Bud Norris Alex White HOU COL COL 62.963 37.037 33.544 COL 6 8 14
131 05-03-11 J.A. Happ Mike Leake HOU CIN CIN 63.235 36.765 35.616 HOU 10 4 14
132 08-09-11 Jordan Lyles Jason Marquis HOU ARI ARI 63.57 36.43 33.024 ARI 9 11 20
133 07-29-2011 Jordan Lyles Randy Wolf HOU MIL MIL 63.57 36.43 36.586 MIL 0 4 4
134 07-31-2011 Brett Myers Chris Narveson HOU MIL MIL 63.57 36.43 32.688 MIL 4 5 9
135 08-10-11 Wandy Rodriguez Josh Collmenter HOU ARI ARI 64.286 35.714 35.823 ARI 3 6 9
136 07-28-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Jaime Garcia HOU STL STL 64.349 35.651 29.901 HOU 5 3 8
137 07-25-2011 J.A. Happ Kyle McClellan HOU STL STL 64.851 35.149 34.691 STL 5 10 15
138 08-14-2011 Jordan Lyles Hiroki Kuroda HOU LAN LAN 64.851 35.149 38.217 LAN 0 7 7
139 07-03-11 Josh Beckett Jordan Lyles BOS HOU BOS 65.035 34.965 34.914 BOS 2 1 3
140 05-04-11 Aneury Rodriguez Travis Wood HOU CIN CIN 65.096 34.904 30.023 CIN 2 3 5
141 05-21-2011 Brett Myers Brandon Morrow HOU TOR TOR 65.096 34.904 36.895 TOR 5 7 12
142 04-06-11 Neslon Figueroa Edinson Volquez HOU CIN CIN 65.217 34.783 33.732 CIN 4 12 16
143 04-22-2011 Neslon Figueroa Yovanni Gallardo HOU MIL MIL 65.753 34.247 39.748 MIL 7 14 21
144 04-03-11 Bud Norris Roy Oswalt HOU PHI PHI 65.812 34.188 32.337 PHI 3 7 10
145 07-27-2011 Bud Norris Chris Carpenter HOU STL STL 65.812 34.188 31.852 HOU 4 2 6
146 09-28-2011 Chris Carpenter Brett Myers STL HOU STL 65.87 34.13 34.191 STL 8 0 8
147 06-22-2011 Brett Myers Colby Lewis HOU TEX TEX 65.928 34.072 32.139 HOU 5 3 8
148 08-05-11 Yovanni Gallardo J.A. Happ MIL HOU MIL 66.667 33.333 41.942 MIL 8 1 9
149 08-28-2011 Bud Norris Matt Cain HOU SF SF 66.667 33.333 31.842 HOU 4 3 7
150 09-11-11 Henry Sosa Stephen Strasburg HOU WAS WAS 66.997 33.003 29.234 WAS 2 8 10
151 08-13-2011 Wandy Rodriguez Clayton Kershaw HOU LAN LAN 67.213 32.787 36.1 LAN 1 6 7
152 08-22-2011 Brett Myers Jhoulys Chacin HOU COL COL 67.213 32.787 27.878 COL 5 9 14
153 09-02-11 Zach Greinke Lucas Harrell MIL HOU MIL 67.742 32.258 36.107 MIL 8 2 10
154 06-21-2011 Jordan Lyles C.J. Wilson HOU TEX TEX 68.254 31.746 27.95 TEX 4 5 9
155 09-13-2011 Cole Hamels J.A. Happ PHI HOU PHI 68.847 31.153 37.571 HOU 2 5 7
156 08-25-2011 Henry Sosa Ryan Vogelsong HOU SF SF 69.04 30.96 33.983 HOU 3 1 4
157 05-16-2011 Brett Myers Tommy Hanson HOU ATL ATL 69.231 30.769 32.764 ATL 2 3 5
158 08-26-2011 J.A. Happ Madison Bumgarner HOU SF SF 69.231 30.769 30.727 SF 1 2 3
159 04-02-11 Wandy Rodriguez Cliff Lee HOU PHI PHI 69.697 30.303 37.391 PHI 4 9 13
160 09-14-2011 Roy Halladay Bud Norris PHI HOU PHI 69.697 30.303 32.493 PHI 1 0 1
161 04-01-11 Brett Myers Roy Halladay HOU PHI PHI 70.588 29.412 35.676 PHI 4 5 9
162 07-30-2011 J.A. Happ Yovanni Gallardo HOU MIL MIL 71.347 28.653 32.446 MIL 2 6 8
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