Thoughts On Travis Buck and Nick Stavinoha

by David Coleman on Nov 10, 2011 11:00 AM CST in Editorials

Tim's already given you his conspiracy theory about why Travis Buck means the Astros are preparing to move to the American League. I offer a little synergy in my breakdowns of Buck and Stavinoha's backgrounds over at SB Nation Houston. But, I wanted to talk about the signings here in more general terms.

The short of it is: I like both moves.

They're not going to win the Astros more games next year, but they both bring something to the table that this team lacks. Neither are perfect players, but that's why they were freely available for Houston to go get.

Buck, while he's not an inspiring choice as an outfielder, could be one of those buy-low, high-upside options. At this point, I think the fantasy that his power will someday come around is gone. But, as a doubles hitter with a good batting eye, he could hit .280/.360/.420 pretty easily. Only one Astro had an OBP higher than .360 last season and that was Michael Bourn.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Buck will win the starting right field job, but we really don't know what he's capable of. He hasn't been given a chance to settle into a lineup and play regularly and he's at an age when he should be hitting in his prime. Even as a fourth outfielder, he'd be valuable.

Stavinoha is a little more problematic, but there's no questioning his power. He's hit for power at every minor league level but wasn't successful in his short major league stints. I'm not sure he wins an everyday job, but if he's the fifth outfielder and pinch hitter off the bench? That power becomes an asset. Plus, he could spell Carlos Lee at first or J.D. Martinez/Brian Bogusevic or Buck in the outfield.

Houston isn't a very patient, OBP-friendly team and they surely don't have a lot of power. By picking up each of these guys on small deals, the Astros are buying a couple of lottery tickets that may or may not impact the 2012 season. We can't hope to sign Jose Reyes, but we can hope that the Astros continue to pick up interesting guys who can add value in different ways.

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I have a different view of the two players. I think Stavinoha might end up plattooning with Bogy in RF and being PH in RBI situations because of power potential. He can also back up Lee at 1B, just like Bogy. Other outfild spot goes to Bourgeious or Shuck.
I think Buck gives the organization some added depth and will start the year at AAA (thus the minor league contract). The current outfielders still need to be given a couple of months of playing time before decisons on their futures can be made. Martinez, Schafer, Bogy all need to see a little more playing time before being replaced by someone like Buck.

by fan77340 on Nov 10, 2011 11:31 AM CST reply actions

So these moves mean they will bounce Bogey back and forth from AAA to Majors like last season

by Nado2036 on Nov 11, 2011 12:31 PM CST up reply actions

I tend to agree with this post. Frankly, I’m not convinced this is anything more than signings to increase depth and to create some competition in Spring Training.

by CRPerry13 on Nov 10, 2011 11:35 AM CST reply actions

Stavinoah has a similar skill set to Allen Craig, and that’s one of the reasons that he would have trouble getting regular playing time with the Cardinals. Craig had a terrific season and it makes sense that he would block Stavinoah from the big league club in 2011.

by clack on Nov 10, 2011 12:45 PM CST reply actions 2 recs

Stavinoha is terrible.

He had a wOBA+ of 102 in the PCL last year. That’s barely above average for a guy who is a putrid defender. Seriously, this guy makes JD Maritnez look like a gazelle In the outfield.

There were entire posts on the Cards SBN site dedicated to showing that Stavinoha was the absolute worst player on any major league roster in 2010.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 10, 2011 10:29 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs

Well, he probably improves the Oklahoma City team; Koby Clemens was the HR leader at 18 and he had a wOBA+ of 95.

It seems to me that Stavinoha’s role at the ML level would be PHer and occasional first baseman. My point is that the role can be filled on the Cardinals by Craig, who is a better player.

by clack on Nov 11, 2011 9:39 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

My point is that there were

at least another four guys – Andrew Brown, Mark Hamilton, Aaron Luna (Rice alum), Steve Hill, et al, — between the Stav infection and Allen Craig for the PH/LF/1B role in St L.

Bottom line – the main poster says he likes the move of picking up Stav. Honestly, it’s a terrible, no-upside move that compounds the Astros’ defense- and OBP- deficient ways.

by Willie McGee's Twin on Nov 11, 2011 12:07 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

He was signed to a Minor League contract with an invite to Spring Training. He’s not on the team yet.

Follow my ramblings on Twitter .

by Timothy De Block on Nov 13, 2011 6:44 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

I know they probably wont due it, but another interesting name that I would like to see the Astros pursue if he becomes available is Andrew Brackman. I know the Yankees declined his option, and I think he has a clause in his very ridiculous contract that if his 2012 option is declined then he can become a free agent. He had a very bad 2011, but 2010 was respectable, and he is young enough to possess upside. I would rather see these types of free agent signings from the Astros than Figgy or The Hyphen.

by conroestro on Nov 10, 2011 2:06 PM CST via mobile reply actions

He is available if im not mistaken.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Nov 10, 2011 2:45 PM CST up reply actions

Would LOVE to see Houston take a chance on Brackman.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 10, 2011 4:17 PM CST up reply actions

This makes three minor leage deals with the pitcher from the Rangers. It should bolster the AAA team and provide some depth. It is really time for the minor league teams to start showing results. Four drafts should be enough to produce respectability at the lower levels (AA and below). Multiple trades and free agent signings should be enough to have a competitive AAA team also. If the teams do not show improvement this year from a W-L standpoint, I think we have to start asking questions about Heck’s drafting. I know the minor’s isnt about team W-L and that several top players have been moved up to the majors, but still, it is time that successful drafts should start making an impact from the team standpoint.

by fan77340 on Nov 10, 2011 2:17 PM CST reply actions

Winning is nice in minors but not a necessity. Helps to have a winning culture but the minors are

for working at getting better honing skills.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Nov 10, 2011 2:46 PM CST up reply actions

Yes, I do know it is not about winning in the minors. But there should be enough talent stockpiled in the lower levels by now that they should be having success as a team also. Almost every team in the organization has a losing record (and most of them were WELL below .500), it means that as a group, our players are not competitive with others around the leagues. Teams with good talent should at least be around the .500 mark.

by fan77340 on Nov 10, 2011 3:37 PM CST up reply actions

I think we’ll see marked improvement in the Houston farm teams’ W/L records starting this year.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 10, 2011 4:17 PM CST up reply actions

this past draft is probably the best that the franchise has had in YEARS. A lot of the lack

in talent is/was due to Drayton not investing in the draft like the teams with the top minor league system and not investing in top LA talent until signing Ovando.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Nov 10, 2011 4:58 PM CST up reply actions

The Astros were still in the lower half of draft spending this past draft.

Follow my ramblings on Twitter .

by Timothy De Block on Nov 10, 2011 7:57 PM CST up reply actions

Tough to say. I think they did at least receive 3 pretty legit or at the very least interesting pitching prospects this past draft in Nick Tropeano, Adrian Houser, and Jack Armstrong. You could add in Kyle Hallock as a sleeper, and I really can’t think of another draft recently that possessed as much upside in pitching recently. Chris Lee also was drafted in the fourth round, but I’m not as high on him.

There was Folty and Velasquez, Lyles and Seaton, but this year I think these particular three may hold more upside.

As far as position players go Springer stands alone at the top, but there are some other sleeper candidates there as well.

by conroestro on Nov 10, 2011 10:20 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I dont care about the spending as mcuh as I do about the quality of talent that

they drafted this past season.

"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

by StrosSouth on Nov 11, 2011 10:03 AM CST up reply actions

How could Buck post a .360 OBP "pretty easily"?

He hasn’t posted a .300 OBP in the last 3 years. He’s a worse On Base man than Martinez, Bogusevic, Shuck, Schafer, and Bourgeois. These pick ups are just to provide competition in Spring Training. Unless Stavinoah or Buck play way above their heads in the Spring, we will probably see a Bourgeois/Bogusevic platoon in Right, Schafer or Shuck in Center, and a Martinez – Lee – Wallace mash up at LF & 1B.

by Brad E on Nov 10, 2011 6:14 PM CST reply actions

It’s hard to reach any conclusion that is predictive based on the 300 PAs he has gotten over the last 3 years. His BABIP also appears to be on the unlucky side last year, so a rebound is not a bad call. In my view, Buck is more similar than dissimilar to Bogusevic. Neither has had enough opportunities to reach any firm conclusions about how they will perform too. I have no idea as to whether a .360 OBP is realistic; I assume David is basing it on Buck’s AAA performance.

by clack on Nov 10, 2011 6:30 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs

john sickels is making some crazy prediction over on his site..

One of his predictions was:

Aneury Rodriguez of the Houston Astros will win 12 games in 2012 with a sub-4.00 ERA.

What do you guys think?

by lawson3 on Nov 10, 2011 6:44 PM CST via mobile reply actions

Doubtful, but I would like to see it happen. I’m sure he will probably start the season in OKC to transition back into a starter. With the bullpen depth along with the fact that Aneury had minimal success in the pen I doubt he starts in the majors.

I started researching him pretty heavy lately to see what all I can come up with. I’m glad he stuck with the Astros all year and is ours now.

by conroestro on Nov 10, 2011 7:05 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

I wanna know

Where the hell he even came up with that because most of us don’t even think of him as being in our ML rotation next year

by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 10, 2011 8:01 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

Possible. I like Aneury Rodriguez, and I wouldn’t rule out the idea. I think there will be competition in spring training for the rotation slots, and if he has a good spring, maybe he starts the season in the rotation. We also don’t know if Wandy or Myers will still be with the team when spring training starts.

by clack on Nov 10, 2011 8:52 PM CST up reply actions 2 recs

That would probably be the biggest if there. If Wandy and Brett are around then the rotation is pretty much set with Brett, Wandy, Bud, and then Happ, Lyles, or Sosa. If both are traded then its wide open for a guy like Aneury to ride a good spring into the starting rotation.

by conroestro on Nov 10, 2011 10:13 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

For now it is looking very likely that Wandy gets traded. If that happens, the only players guaranteed a rotation slot are Myers and Norris. Happ is probably a good bet for a slot too, but if he has a terrible spring, that may come into question. That means that there will likely be at least 2 spots up for grabs with Rodriguez, Lyles, Sosa, Harrell, and whatever scrub free agents they bring in. I like Aneury’s odds in that situation, although I guess you’d have to make Lyles and Sosa the odds on favorites. But if Myers gets traded, or Happ struggles, or Norris/Myers/Happ gets injured, it becomes pretty likely that Aneury would be in the rotation to start the year.

Now, winning 12 games with an ERA under 4? Hard to believe. I can certainly see an ERA in the mid 4’s, but a sub 4 would take a pretty massive jump in performance against what we saw all of 2011. And winning 12 games may be hard for any pitcher on next year’s staff.

I hope Sickels is right, since that would mean that the ’stros are vastly improved and uncovered a solid #3 starter in the Rule 5 draft.

by Snake Diggity on Nov 11, 2011 10:14 AM CST up reply actions

Yeah, an improvement to between 4 and 4.5 is more likely. An Rod’s SIERA last year was 4.45, and SIERA is supposed to be the most predictive pitching stat. He had a very low LOB%, which means that he had problems with men on base. In part, that is probably bad luck, which explains the higher ERA relative to advanced metrics like FIP, SIERA, and tRA. However, it’s also possible that inexperience and perhaps mechanical issues in pitching from the stretch played a role. The main reason to expect improvement is that he has more experience in the majors now. As for the second issue, hopefully the Astros will look closely at how he pitches from the stretch to determine if something needs to be fixed. An ERA below 4 would require a leap in performance, and I wouldn’t expect it unless he makes a further refinement of his repertoire, for instance learning to use his change up more effectively or adding another pitch.

by clack on Nov 11, 2011 11:45 AM CST up reply actions

Aneury Rodriguez threw 6 no-hit innings tonight

In his winter league with 5Ks.

by lawson3 on Nov 12, 2011 9:55 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

additions

teams trying to sign reyes and pujols are fools. they cost way too much. both are old guys now. i like the astros additions. i think a 28 yr old player may really improve his power output… if teams want danks and ?? from white sox, then myers and wandy would command a lot in trade. astros have pitchers waiting in the minors to start or relieve.. we are coming along nicely…so if we are still rebuilding in 2012..go ahead, make moves, bring them up…same with ss position..bring up villar…all talk about trading lee is a waste..he will not approve a trade..astros are doing this the right way..rebuild from within.. at some pt we might add a piece or two…but not in near future…astros have become exciting..we really have some good players…mike

by Mike HJALM on Nov 11, 2011 11:48 AM CST reply actions

Pujols is 31 and Reyes is only 27. Hardly old players. Reyes is in his prime.

by CRPerry13 on Nov 11, 2011 3:39 PM CST up reply actions

John Danks is projected to get about $7.6MM in arbitration next season. Wandy’s contract has $36MM left on it. Danks is infinitely more valuable in trade right now.

by CRPerry13 on Nov 11, 2011 3:55 PM CST up reply actions

american league

first, will new owner get approval? then, it is a disaster to be in al west with 3 westcoast teams… mlb needs to reorganize the west…. nl west would be rangers, astros., dbacks, rockies, dodgers….. al west sandiego, angels, oakland, sf giants, seattle…a complete west coast division is interesting…. good rivalries…the rangers, astros, dbacks, and rockies are natural rivals…mike

by Mike HJALM on Nov 11, 2011 11:51 AM CST reply actions

Ed Wade going for the bargain basement again.

Both of these signings are insignificant to point why dont you just put the money in the pay of Carlos Lee jar. Man Wade could maybe wait for a bit and try to sign some guys at the last minute for once and maybe just maybe some worth talking about might fall in your lap.

by Nado2036 on Nov 11, 2011 12:26 PM CST reply actions

They are minor signings. I don’t think they prevent Wade from picking someone up that falls in the Astros’ lap. (That assumes Wade is still around in January or February). The off-season will be so quiet for the Astros that we tend to over analyze signings like this that wouldn’t merit much discussion in previous years. It’s kind of a sad development that indicates the team’s current position.

by clack on Nov 11, 2011 1:13 PM CST up reply actions

IMO we have plenty of guys with the same resume already in our system and it will give less AB’s for the guys we already have at ML level. Also on another note since Barmes will probably not be here has anyone give a though about Furcal we can always trade him at the deadline.

by Nado2036 on Nov 11, 2011 2:37 PM CST reply actions

I like Furcal, but I think he will cost more than Barmes—which means that the Astros can’t sign him probably. If I were in the Cardinals’ shoes, I would re-sign Furcal, because I think his defense had a lot to do with their late resurgence.

by clack on Nov 11, 2011 5:14 PM CST up reply actions

I agree. I figure he will be go expensive for the Astros who will be looking for bargains after the dust settles. I definitely like the idea of the extra pick, but I’m still holding out hope that he re-signs even though I know how doubtful that is.

by conroestro on Nov 11, 2011 7:03 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

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