TCB Podcast: Top 30 Prospects - Part 1
by Timothy De Block on Nov 1, 2011 8:00 AM CDT
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In this episode Sean Feist, and special guest Jayne Hansen who writes for the blog What the Heck, Bobby? Discuss the Astros Minor League prospects and unveil our Top 30 prospects. Some of the names we'll be discussing outside the Top 30 are:
| RANK | PROSPECT |
| 63 | Koby Clemens |
| 61 | Jay Austin |
| 47 | Chia-Jen Lo |
| 38 | Ben Heath |
| 35 | Juan Abreu |
After discussing these names and a couple others that were not on the list we dove into our Top 30 prospects list. We actually had four players tied at 30 and set about determining who would be that 30th ranked prospect.
Rankings and player after the jump.
We split the vote on the 30th prospect and created a new prospect named Jordan Keuchel. So since we were split I've decided we'll have a reader poll to determine the final prospect.
| RANK | PROSPECT |
| t-30 | Jordan Scott |
| t-30 | Josh Zeid |
| t-30 | Tom Shirley |
| t-30 | Dallas Keuchel |
| 29 | Chase Davidson |
| 28 | Dan Adamson |
| 27 | Jonathan Meyer |
| 26 | Jake Buchanan |
| 25 | Javaris Reynolds |
In the next hour we'll be discussing prospects from 24 to 13 and some other totally off topic and random things.
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Love talkin prospects in this time of famine...
Don’t have Davidson or Meyer in my top 30, although if I re-did it, Meyer may make it in. Davidson’s one who could skyrocket if he keeps hitting in full season.
I expect a breakout year from Meyer in Corpus next year. His defense if major league ready and all of the reports are that he is a very hard worker with the tools to be a good hitter. He’s young for his league and could really get on the radar if he comes out and holds his own in AA.
Jordan Scott is a sleeper prospect but I didn’t have him in my top 30 because of the risk. I expect him to be in Lexington and his performance there will show a lot.
Not high at all on Zeid.
If Shirley is put into a rotation, it may take awhile to see if he can excel and stay healthy. If he’s put into a reliever role and does well, he could move quickly.
I had Keuchel and Buchanan quite a bit higher (top 20), because I think their floors are low and the profile as starters long term at the big league level.
Adamson was in my top 30, and he could shine in Lancaster next year, but he may not be given a full time role, as there could be kind of a squeeze for PT in the OF on the farm teams.
Reynolds is too far away to make any realistic judgement on him, but the talent is there for him to be a good player and he was in my top 30 as well.
Clemens is a non-prospect at this point. If by some miracle he can show the ability to play a passable 3B and emergency C along with LF and 1B, he may get a chance in the bigs as a backup power bat. But it’s not looking likely at this point.
I havent’ written off Austin yet because it appears that the FO hasn’t given up on him at all, since they’ve sent him to the AFL 2 years in a row. He’s young enough that there’s still time for him to put it together. Baserunning and defense don’t slump. That said, he wasn’t in my top 30.
I don’t consider Abreu a prospect anymore since he is in the majors, but I can see him as a good setup man long term.
I expect a big rebound from Heath. He was fairly highly drafted (5th round) and mashed in short season, so the tools are there. I think he may have just worn down and let the game get inside his head. I expect big things from him in Lancaster. Again, not in my top 30.
Lo’s a forgotten man at this point. He’s an older prospect with a huge injury history and a lack of experience. He’s nowhere near my top 30, but if he stays healthy, he could rise quickly since he’s already seen AA.
Should read “floors are HIGH” after Keuchel Buchanan comment. Ugh.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 1, 2011 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
2012
we have some prospects deep in the minors… the bunch we brought up the last part of 2011 was exciting. some hit bumps in road. some did better… i am willing to try j castro, paredes, barmes, downs 2b, clee, hernandez lf, shepherd cf, bogosuvic or bourgeois in rf…. if we go to al…? get a dh out of our own system.. avoid free agents for now….see how we do with present group…magnus
Im not high on clemens
But would he be any worse than jmike? I think its worth a shot to have him take his place as a power bat off the bench and keep Wallace in triple a until we trade or dump el caballo at the deadline.
by wdh001 on Nov 1, 2011 12:22 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
I don’t view Clemens as a prospect at this point. But that doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be given a chance to compete for a utility / bench position in spring training. He does have a disadvantage compared to a Michaels type player, in that he is confined to LF in the outfield. He could sub for a few innings at 3d or 1st if he is double switched into a game. But his fielding skill level could hold him back.
What's the deal with Koby's fielding?
From my limited knowledge, Koby can hit and probably could hit in the majors; but he has never mastered a fielding position.
He’s had several years to improve his fielding. Why hasn’t he?
If his fielding keeps him from tjhe majors, is his bat good enough to be a DH on an American League team?
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Nov 1, 2011 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions
Lacks the arm for 3rd and C. Lacks range for C. Under a normal scenario, he’s limited to 1B and LF. Doesn’t have the on-base skill for 1B or LF. At this point he is a player with above average power, an average glove, below average arm, no speed, and weak on-base skill.
To be a major league contributor, he’d have to improve his range (enough to be a backup 3B) and his on-base skill.
by Snake Diggity on Nov 1, 2011 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Going with Zeid.
Was terrible for us last year, but he’s got great stuff. Might have the best slider in our system.
Just needs to put it all together. If he does, he could be a good 7th/8th inning guy.
"Hakeem couldn't kick your ass cuz you were too
close kissin his!"- Sir Charles to Kenny Smith.
Can anyone copy the full top propsects list from baseball prospectus and post it here?
by Woodlands'stro on Nov 1, 2011 3:43 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
The top 20 list is free, but the analysis is on the pay site.
Four-Star Prospects
1. Jarred Cosart, RHP
2. George Springer, OF
3. Jonathan Singleton, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
4. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
5. Jonathan Villar, SS
6. Domingo Santana, OF
7. Telvin Nash, 1B
Two-Star Prospects
8. Delino DeShields, 2B
9. Jack Armstrong, RHP
10. Mike Foltynewicz, RHP
11. Paul Clemens, RHP
Yeah I was hoping for the analysis..i don’t kno why but I like to see what they have to say about each prospect
by Woodlands'stro on Nov 1, 2011 5:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I miss these
It still takes me about three hours to listen to it because I keep getting interupted, but its worth it.
The Morgan Ensberg comment got me wondering. It was after he broke his hand that he really started going down in production right? If that’s the case, I think it may have been a fear thing. Always scared of getting hit by the ball again? Conciously or subconciously a ball breaking your bones can seriously mess with you (I would think).
Just a random comparison here, right now I’m higher on Houser than I am on Folty. I think both pitchers could have a standout year next year but I think Houser will catch on quicker than Folty did. However if any player is due to take the “leap” you were talking about its Folty.
I’m still high on Adamson. He has good power for a CFer (Whether he has the speed for CF is another question), and I think he had some injuries this year that set him back. I could see him making a good jump next year.
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 1, 2011 5:21 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Ensberg’s hand injury occurred in 2005, but I don’t think that was the major factor in Ensberg’s decline. I think Ensberg’s shoulder injury in 2006 probably had more to do with Ensberg’s decline. Ensberg’s hurt his shoulder diving to field a ball in June 2006. On May 31, 2006, Ensberg’s slash line: .265, .391, .587, .977. Although he tried to play through the pain, he later admitted on his blog that the injury ruined his ability to bat effectively. As an aside, Dan Symborski at BBTF attempted to project Ensberg’s career if the June 2006 injury had not occurred. His alternate universe projection has Ensberg continuing to post .800 – .900 OPS offense through 2012.
I had forgotten about
Ensbergs injuries. That would have made my what if injuries list.
by ntn on Nov 1, 2011 7:40 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Goldstein posted his top 11 prospects for the Astros
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15385
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
Seems like a lot of people are coming out with lists at this time of the year.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Nov 1, 2011 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I mean, we knew/know that's a risk.
His stock is mostly based upon fantastic raw stuff, and there are a lot of guys like that who do end up in the bullpen if they can’t put everything together. I will say that, coming from a guy who is more down on the “closer” role than I know you are, Cosart’s downside as an excellent reliever makes for an attractive floor from a guy who could turn into an ace.
http://www.crawfishboxes.com
It’s just that I view Cosart as the Astros’ potential top of the rotation pitcher. If he ends up in the bullpen, the Astros’ prospect list is pretty much devoid of a top of the rotation starter. I suppose that is a risk for almost any 1 or 2 pitching prospect.
That might be a reason why the Astros go with a pitcher in the draft
If Cosart doesn’t make it in the rotation, we at least have a backup. I still really prefer to load up on bats and when we get to that playoff point maybe try to aquire an Ace via FA where we will definately have to pay but at least it shouldn’t be a guess as to how he’ll perform. Plus I still like guys that play everyday as opposed to every fifth day more for the first round.
by Its Gonna Happen on Nov 2, 2011 2:10 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
hire andrew friedman already!!!!!
Then maybe we’ll get some good prospects and not have one-sided trades. My god wade sucks. He stood no ground on the pence/bourn trades. He basically said, “this is what we want”. They said, “NO”. And he said, “ok, we’ll take a ham sandwich then”. I know we were trying to cut payroll, but jesus, my 2 yr old son (who has a hell of an arm btw, and can throw a helluva fit till you give him what he wants) could’ve executed better trades. Hell, they probably would’ve even thrown in a lollipop.
by HTown80 on Nov 1, 2011 11:27 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
are you serious?
Do you not get that 4-5 of our Top 10-11 prospects came in the Bourn and Pence trades, including two of our top 3?
Critize Wade all you want, but those trades were hardly “one-sided.” I think Wade did pretty damn well in those trades, particularly the Pence trade (3 of our top 10 prospects). I doubt many would disagree.
If Wade goes, it should be because of his poor decisions at the major league level (Brandon Lyon, Kaz, Bill Hall, Feliz, etc, etc, etc).
by Michael Rose on Nov 3, 2011 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions
Agreed, Wade’s farm development and trades have been solid. A review of his trade history:
2007 – Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett for Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and Mike Costanzo – Good for both teams – WIN
2007 – Josh Anderson for Oscar Villarreal – No impact – PUSH
2007 – Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Troy Patton, Luke Scott and Mike Costanzo for Miguel Tejada – Say what you want but Baltimore hasn’t gotten much out of this deal. – WIN
2007 – Chris Burke, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls for Jose Valverde – Good for Houston – WIN
2008 – Chad Reineke for Randy Wolf – Very good for Houston – WIN
2008 – Matt Cusick for LaTroy Hawkins – Very good for Houston, also netted compensation pick – WIN
2009 – PTBNL: Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger – Very good for Houston – WIN
2009 – Ivan Rodriguez for Matt Nevarez – No impact – PUSH
2009 – Luis Bryan, Robert Bono and a PTBNL: Jorge Jimenez for Matt Lindstrom – Very good for Houston – WIN
2010 – Kevin Cash for Angel Sanchez – Very good for Houston – WIN
2010 – ? for Edwin Bellorin – No impact – PUSH
2010 – Anthony Gose for Brett Wallace – Too early but looking bad – LOSS
2010 – Roy Oswalt for Anthony Gose, Jon Villar, JA Happ – Too early but Villar could be a star and Happ’s a #5 for 1 yr of Oswalt – TBD
2010 – Lance Berkman for Mark Melancon, Jimmy Paredes – 3B of Future and good setup man for 1/2 yr of injured Lance is good. – WIN
2010 – Pedro Feliz for David Carpenter – EXCELLENT return. – WIN
2010 – ? for Enerio Del Rosario – No impact – WIN
2010 – Felipe Paulino for Clint Barmes – Good for both teams, although Houston got more out of CB than CO got out of FP – WIN
2010 – Matt Lindstrom for Jon Aristil, Wes Musick – Too early but not looking good, consider salary dump – LOSS
2011 – Albert Cartwright for Sergio Escalona – Cartwright is a non-prospect, Escalona has contributed – WIN
2011 – ? for Joe Inglett – No impact – PUSH
2011 – ? for Mickey Storey – No impact – PUSH
2011 – Jeff Keppinger for Henry Sosa, Jason Stoffel – Potential #4 SP and CL for 1.5 yr of Kepp…salary savings too – TBD
2011 – Hunter Pence for Jon Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Domingo Santana, Josh Zeid – 3 top 100s plus a good ‘pen arm for 2.5 yrs of Hunter, plus salary savings…looking good so far. – TBD
2011 – Michael Bourn for Jordan Schafer, Paul Clemens, Brett Oberholtzer, Juan Abreu – Potential CF, CL and 2 #3 SPs, might’ve been able to do better w/ a higher end prospect and less quantity – TBD
by Snake Diggity on Nov 3, 2011 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Seaton and Bailey
I’d try to find a way to sneak them in there – ahead of Adamson, Zeid, and Shirley, for starters.
It is fun getting a Crawfish Boxes list to supplement the national perspectives.
Seaton for sure
I don’t quite see how we can leave him off the top 30 in favor of some of these young SP prospects (some of whom made the top 20) who don’t have the upside of Seaton, and probably don’t even have as good a chance to simply make the majors in any capacity either.
by auclairkeithbc on Nov 2, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions
The grading was based on an average of the grades given by the TCB editors. The average grades for No. 30 through No. 36 (Seaton) were closely spaced (e.g., Zeid at 2.9 and Seaton at 2.8)—-so closely spaced that it’s hard to draw a big distinction. I don’t recall voting on Adam Bailey; maybe David or Subber can address him.
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