Home Run to Fly Ball Rate And The Astros
by David Coleman on Oct 25, 2011 6:00 AM CDT
in Stat Geeky
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PrintWe all know the Astros have a power problem. The only power hitter in the lineup right now is Carlos Lee and his best years are past him. It's possible a move to the American League and the designated hitter will help him, but it's likely that age is just taking its toll.
There's a pretty good way to determine where the problem is at without, you know, just looking at total home runs. If you look at the ratio of home runs and fly balls by individual batters, you can get a gauge on power without focusing just on home runs.
Since 2002, the HR/FB rate for the National League has fallen for 11 percent to 9.5 percent. It's held pretty steady around 9.5 percent for the past three years, so let's call that the break even point. The Astros only had two players above that number in 2011, including J.D. Martinez (10.5 percent) and Brian Bogusevic (11.8 percent).
Carlos Lee led the team in home runs with 18, but he only had a 7.7 HR/FB rate. The only other player in the league with at least 15 home runs and a HR/FB rate close to that is Jimmy Rollins, who had 16 HRs and a 7.7 HR/FB rate. Of the guys with 20 or more homers? Only Andrew McCutcheon had a rate under 10, though Gaby Sanchez had 19 homers with a 8.9 HR/FB rate.
20 homers is nice, but it's not going to change the lineup, so let's look a bit higher on the list. Of the players with at least 30 homers, Justin Upton (31 HRs) had the lowest HR/FB rate at 14.8 percent. Both NL leader Matt Kemp (39 HRs) and second-place Albert Pujols (38 HRs) had rates over 20 while young Mike Stanton led the league at 24.8 percent with 34 homers.
There is a chance that J.D. Martinez may experience a bounce in his averages after his rookie season, but I doubt it. He's going to hug around 10 percent, which means he'll be slightly better than Neil Walker, who had around 8 percent the past two years and hit 12 home runs each season.
It also means Houston may need to put both guys in the lineup all season if it wants to increase the possible power production next season.
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HR/fly rate isn’t the only factor in how many HRs are hit. The hitters’ Flyball and Groundball rates can be a more significant factor. A high HR/fly rate won’t result in a lot of HRs if the hitter doesn’t hit many flyballs. Carlos Lee hits a lot of flyballs. His GB/fly ratio is 0.79 and his fly rate is 44%. Bogusevic may have a HR/fly rate greater than average but he hits too many GBs to achieve a high HR total; he has a GB/fly ratio of 2.08 in the majors with a 26% flyball rate. J.D. Martinez’s flyball rate is 35.6% and his GB/Fly ratio is 1.03. Martinez’s flyball rate is about league average.
If the Astros want to increase their HR totals, they may need to play Matt Downs with Lee and Martinez most of the time. Downs has a GB/fly ratio of .76 and a flyball rate of 47%, which makes his profile more similar to Carlos Lee. Downs had an above-average HR/fly rate of 13.9%. But it’s worth noting that HR/fly rate tends to be more erratic than GB/fly ratio on a year to year basis.
by clack on Oct 25, 2011 6:27 AM CDT reply actions 2 recs
Another indicator of the Astros’ HR issue is the team GB/fly ratio which is 1.35, third highest in the NL. The Padres are second highest and also are right there with the Astros in puny HR numbers. Surprisingly, the Cardinals had the highest B/fly ratio and still hit a lot of HRs—-showing that Berkman’s and Pujols’ HR/fly rate made up a lot of ground.
by clack on Oct 25, 2011 6:35 AM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Well we know youre internet stalker doesnt get up early.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"
Off Topic
I don’t know if I’d want to put Carlos Lee at DH unless you’re planning on having Matt Downs play first base.
Follow my ramblings on Twitter .
by Timothy De Block on Oct 25, 2011 7:19 AM CDT reply actions
Definitely off-topic, but a worthy topic nonetheless. I think I like Downs platooned in right with Brian Bogusevic better. That way you have a better chance at maximizing both players production. Then Downs could be super sub around the infield as well. If that’s the case then I think he should get plenty of at-bats. The DH situation with Carlos should not be an issue unless the Astros re-sign him since his contract is up this year. For arguments sake if Carlos was still the guy then I would rather see him DH than play first. I would like to Wallace given regular time at first. He’s still got to much value to give up on him without giving him another chance. If Wallace can’t go then maybe Hinze could have a shot, but Downs and Lee aren’t the future at first. I guess if Lee is in a different role then I wouldn’t mind seeing the Astros go through their options at first until they find something that looks promising.
by conroestro on Oct 25, 2011 1:58 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Could the Astros see a re-focused Carlos Lee
I’m not going to say Carlos hasn’t been focusing or trying his hardest the past couple of seasons. Nor am I going to say that there are any ML players that don’t just give it ther all. BUT, I will say that we often see a spike in production from players in the last year of their contract. Would it be a shocker to people if Lee put up one last .290-.300, 100 RBI, 25HR season? If we can get a somewhat descent 5 hole hitter to give him some protection it could be conceivable right?
Oh ya, that’s right people, the optimist is back!!!!
by Its Gonna Happen on Oct 25, 2011 2:44 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I think it’s possible. I’m not sure that I would attribute it to focus. It’s just that it’s common for good hitters to have 1 or 2 down years in their 30’s followed by a few rebound years. My theory is that good hitters initially feel the physical effects of a decline in certain parts of their skill (say, catching up with fastballs), but eventually figure out how to compensate and adjust. In 2011 (particularly the second half), Carlos Lee increased his walk rate, which is an adjustment that older players frequently make. And that could be an adjustment that helps his hitting. Just a thought—optimistic as it may be.
by clack on Oct 25, 2011 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
If Lee got into better shape like Berkman he may get some of his Mojo back
He looks like he gained 20 lbs over the coarse of a season.
Actually
Seeing his picture when he was signed by the Astros and seeing him now, he looks like he’s been working out pretty intensely
by Its Gonna Happen on Oct 25, 2011 3:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
this guy doesn't look very athletic...I wonder if he can make it in baseball?
by clack on Oct 25, 2011 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
The player to the right
Does he look like a shorter fatter version of Pence, or is it just me?
by Its Gonna Happen on Oct 25, 2011 4:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, apparently the Astros aren't a team worthy of getting in shape for.
The Cardinals, on the other hand…
That was 90 years ago
You do understand that dont you???? Do you think the game has changed a little MR. Superstat
Do you think Babe Ruth could hit HRs in today’s game?
I think he would still be successful. But I’ll admit it’s an open question.
It’s not like we can’t find examples of other fat hitters who are good. Prince Fielder is an example.
Have a sense of humor, by the way.
by clack on Oct 25, 2011 4:55 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
Sorry didnt catch the joke and I really dont think there was one so Ha. Last thing it is different when you are 25 yrs old and playing on pure talent. (Fielder) When you are an ageing slugger like Lee that has not taken care of himself over the years you are seeing the result. The contract we gave him was ridiculous and desperate in the first place but that is neither here nor there. It is a fact that staying in shape will help your game and no I do not think Ruth would make it out of the minors or if he did he would be Mo Vaughn.
well, I meant to post it for humor.
By the way, here is an interesting note about Babe Ruth vs. Albert Pujols.
by clack on Oct 25, 2011 5:23 PM CDT up reply actions 2 recs
I chuckled
Going the other direction, I wonder how many homeruns current players would hit if they played in the larger ballparks back in the day.
Astros fan for life
by Joe in Birmingham on Oct 25, 2011 11:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Mention that Lee could benefit to being better shape EX. Berkman
One of you comes back that he looks like he is in better shape than when he signed with us?? So you dont think if he was in better shape he would possibly hit better because sitting on his ass not doing anything is taking its toll on his game.
Then you come back with a picture of Babe Ruth. Really Really
So you are comparing Carlos Lee to Babe Ruth? Because I guarrantee you that Ruth towards the end of his career could have benefit from a little excercise. You guys are just idiots some times
You're right.
You’re always right. You win. I wish I was more like you.
by Its Gonna Happen on Oct 25, 2011 4:55 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Fat people can still hit. Fielder and Ortiz are good examples. With that being said, could Carlos be better if he did the Lance Berkman this offseason, probably so. You are right there, but I doubt we will ever know because I doubt Carlos Lee has the same type of motivation that Lance had. Lance was trying to prove he wasn’t done.
There is ways to have civilized discussions about everything Nado. I can tell your passionate in your opinions which is a good thing, but it can still stay respectable. That’s all.
by conroestro on Oct 25, 2011 5:03 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
There is are things you have to like or dislike about your team. There is not a whole lot to like about this team. So if someone would light a fire under Lee and tell him that he needs to come back in better shape then he is not going to play. When anytime someone makes a comment about Wade Mills, Lee that is negative always get blasted by the same ppl. We are a horrible team this year when is it ok to start shit canning some guys??Thats why I wouldnt pay Fielder if I was an NL team because with his wieght he will never reach the end of his contract.
Probably correct about Fielder towards the end of his contract. He could be destined for Lee status. He is/was a better hitter than Lee in his prime though, so we will see if that compensates any.
by conroestro on Oct 25, 2011 5:21 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Just out of curiosity,
How could you possibly mean that with all “due” respect?
by CRPerry13 on Oct 26, 2011 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
sorry but,
No matter what, improvement is going to have to come from the farm system. And as long as wade is the gm, we’re going to be hard pressed to win 62+ games for the next 3-4 years. Fire wade, hire friedman. PERIOD!!!!!!!!!
by HTown80 on Oct 26, 2011 1:44 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Fly balls and home runs are what make baseball a great game. A nice thing is to know there is actually a rate in which they are kept track of. However, firing Wade and hiring Friendman may not actually accomplish anything but messing up the roster.
Agreed. Don’t touch our Astros Friedman. Keep this roster in tact.
by conroestro on Oct 28, 2011 12:18 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
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NL Central Standings
| W | L | PCT | GB | STRK | |
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Cincinnati
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25 | 20 | .555 | 0 | Lost 1 |
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St. Louis
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25 | 21 | .543 | 0.5 | Lost 2 |
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Houston
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22 | 23 | .488 | 3 | Won 4 |
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Pittsburgh
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Milwaukee
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Chicago
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