Glimmer of Hope: Martinez
Despite my optimism about Bogusevic and...sigh...Schafer, there is a slight chance that the Astros outfield may not produce too many runs with their bats. Next season we will still be missing Hunter Pence. Pence may not have been a Hall of Famer or the center piece of an offense, but would any of you bet against Pence hitting .280/.340/.490 with 25 home runs for the next three seasons? He looked better with the Phillies. At least he was walking more. He had 30 walks with the Astros in 399 at-bats and 26 with the Phillies in 207 at-bats. Maybe it was coaching, or maybe he felt that he didn't have to carry the offense, or maybe it was just a small sample size, but he started to do what I had always wished he would do with the Astros, not swing at everything. Good bye, Hunter, you leave a pothole in the crater that is our offense. The best chance I see for the Astros to pave over that pothole is J.D. Martinez.
We all know the legend of J.D. Martinez: Born in a log cabin in the American mid-west; his mother named him after one Jim Deshaies; Martinez learned to hit on the streets of Moscow using a broken hockey stick as a bat; then disaster struck; Roy Oswalt's old truck electrocuted the young Martinez when the CIA used a Regan-era trebuchet to fling it into the USSR, ruining his knees; the KGB replaced his knees with top-of-the-line Soviet cyber-joints, so now he can't play the infield. The jolt from Oswalt's truck did one good thing, it bequeathed Martinez with a super hitting ability. His robotic knees and his Oswalt-truck-enhanced bat make him the true "hitting machine." When the MLB draft rolled around, most MLB teams, shying away from Soviet technology, did not believe in him, and so the Astros were able to take him the 1634th round.
Jim Deshaies Martinez hit, hit, and hit ever since the Astros got him into the system. It has started to look like Martinez might be able to put up similar numbers to Pence's. It is not unreasonable to hope that J.D. can go .280/.350/.460 with 20+ home runs, a walk rate around 8%, and a K rate around 18% with average to above average defense in left. I have hope that he can actually do better than that when he peaks. And just like Pence, he won't be a center piece of a lineup. As anyone can see, the Astros are more than a super slugger away from competing in the next few seasons, so J.D. doesn't have to be Albert Pujols. Hopefully, J.D. will be in his prime and capable of putting up All-star caliber seasons when the Astros start to look respectable again and will fit in nicely as a solid veteran in the middle of the line-up with the likes Singleton and Springer. If the Astros are still too far away from being good at that point, and the fans haven't forgiven them for moving to the AL, the Astros can deal him to the Phillies...or hopefully to the Rays because I assume Friedman (hint, hint, Mr. Crane, that's where you can stick your $50 million) will want to trade with his old team.
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I’m not totally sold on Martinez’s power, but I was pleasantly surprised by his defense. I would predict a .280/.320/.430 line for a 750 OPS, which is good, but not great for a corner outfielder. I’ll be surprised if he hits more than 20 HRs in a season. That said, the ceiling is there for a couple of .300, 25 HR seasons.
LF taken by itself could be seen as a fairly weak position in Houston’s system. If you put Goebbert/Bailey/Santana/Ovando at RF and Shuck/Wates/Springer/Austin in CF (which makes those positions seem very strong), it leaves with guys like Drew Locke, Collin DeLome, TJ Steele, Jon Gaston, Emilio King, Brandon Meredith, Chris Epps, and Jordan Scott. While none of those guys are going to be top 100 prospects any time soon, King, Meredith, and Scott gave plenty of reason for optimism and are solid prospects. I’m not too worried about LF long term.
I enjoyed the humor in this post. Nicely done.
Yeah, I think 20+ HRs may be pushing it for Jim Deshais Martinez….at least, in the next few years. Perhaps he might have a peak season in a few years where he hits 25 HR. I am thinking that 15 – 18 HRs may be more likely in the near term. According to my previous article, Martinez’s BABIP this past season was just about right on target. I am guessing that a .780 or so OPS, with perhaps .800 if things go well, is about what I would expect.
Before Martinez was called up, I suggested that Gaby Sanchez and Allen Craig are comparables for Martinez. Craig is having such a good post season for the Cardinals that he suddenly looks like an optimistic comparable. Craig’s BABIP (.344) was probably unsustainable this season, so I think he will fall back from a .300 batting average in the future. But at 27, he may be showing similar power to what Martinez will have in his peak.
by clack on Oct 24, 2011 5:26 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I think you're right on with Gaby Sanchez
I hadn’t thought that JD could come close to Pence, until I saw one of the fangraphs writers mention in a chat that his peak would basically be Hunter Pence-like. I would be happy with JD if he has several 3 WAR seasons with a couple of 4 WAR peaks. I hope what UZR rated him this year holds up after more playing time.
Martinez hits doubles. That's his thing. But he sees the ball very well as evident in his .340 minor league career batting average
I wouldn’t be surprised if he could develop more power as he stays in the majors. He could be a 30 homer player, with 40 doubles to boot.
A comp I’d like to go to is Josh Hamilton. Hamilton didn’t have fantastic home-run numbers in the minors right after he was drafted. But he did adapt to the majors and has made a pretty successful career so far.
Right after Martinez was called up to the majors, it seemed like everything that was thrown right down upper middle of the plate was mashed, either for a homerun or a double or a hard single. He did have a lot of power right after he was called up, but soon fizzled out once pitchers threw more balls out of the zone at him. Martinez is intriguing to me and it will be interesting to see what is to become of him.
It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.
JD's "lack of HR numbers" in the minors was due to his being more of on base typr of hitter
when he was drafted. His power began to show after the Astros org. had dim make adjustments to his swing by adding more loft to it. So I agree with Busta that JD’s power numbers are more likely to increase as he continues mature physically and as a ML hitter.
"This is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the the ball, you got it?!"

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